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[M][N] Generic Mini Mafia II - Page 143

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 25 2017 19:08 GMT
#2841
If you are scum you've played this endgame brilliantly.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 25 2017 19:12 GMT
#2842
But from a town standpoint pretty disappointing.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 26 2017 04:06 GMT
#2843
[image loading]
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 26 2017 04:07 GMT
#2844
The revenge of the shit posters isn't very fun anymore!
beentheredonethat
Profile Joined May 2016
2934 Posts
May 26 2017 12:51 GMT
#2845
Day 6, Vote Count 1


Grackaroni (2) - LightningStrike, Prison Break

Not voting (1) - Grackaroni

Currently, Grackaroni is set to be lynched (at Friday, May 26 9:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)).

Voting is mandatory.


"Micro tricks like marine splitting, blink stalker micro, and ling/baneling wars were the apex of the game’s achievements; nothing in the world takes your breath away like watching a pro player split marines like a god."
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
May 26 2017 16:57 GMT
#2846
Grack are you here?
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 26 2017 17:28 GMT
#2847
Yeah I'm around.
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
May 26 2017 17:48 GMT
#2848
Did you get around on looking tt PB's filter yet?
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 26 2017 17:53 GMT
#2849
No I figured you probably wouldn't switch.
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 26 2017 17:54 GMT
#2850
I can take a look and write something up if you're considering it.
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
May 26 2017 18:04 GMT
#2851
On May 27 2017 02:54 Grackaroni wrote:
I can take a look and write something up if you're considering it.

Go ahead I might be interested in what you say about his filter.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Prison Break
Profile Joined April 2017
326 Posts
May 26 2017 18:58 GMT
#2852
I still think it's grack and he hoped I would auto-lynch lightningstrike today

it doesn't help that he's willing to switch to me now, because if he thinks lightningstrike is scum, then it's better to try to convince me to lynch lightningstrike instead, but he gave up pretty quickly on that after I made my intention clear

I want to see gracks flip because I think we won this game. him saying I played brilliant if I was scum but bad if I was town could be a method to manipulate me into unvoting, because no one wants to be called bad on their first game, obviously. but I'm not going to fall for that

I just can't see lightningstrike leaving me alive here, so it's pretty auto from my PoV
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 26 2017 19:00 GMT
#2853
I read through Prison Break's filter. His vote count analysis was actually seems a lot more well thought out in retrospect than when I read it on day 1. There were a few things I found suspicious.

Prison Break is clearly very stubborn. He was really upset after we lynched Fuba ignoring HF/SL on day 2.
On May 15 2017 10:32 Prison Break wrote:
FUCK why did we lynch fuba, he was a HARD townread + I explained this, and he ALSO went after sicklurker d1

guess who's on the vote.... sicklurker....

reading through the pages now to see how this unfolded. holyflare and sicklurker escaped a lynch yet again....

is this seriously going to be one of those games where I catch scum d1 and then people refuse to lynch them and keep killing townies instead? goddamn this is frustrating...

He was very tunneled on SL for the entire game prior to HF flipping, and he was making a lot of reads by association with Sicklucker.

These posts I flagged as suspicious even before HF flipped. I think there's too much justification for dropping his read, like he's overplaying the significance of it saying that he's going to hate himself for changing his read if HF flips scum.
On May 18 2017 08:34 Prison Break wrote:
Eh my theory on holyflare trying to direct a scan towards himself and then frame it so he can ride confirmed town status etc, admittedly makes less sense now due to tumblewood flipping framer

and holyflare seemed extremely paranoid with arguing tumblewood could be town like why would scum ever go on and ramble about that? I can see it being town trying to figure out the set-up, unless if he's scum and wants us to fake it... so the real question is do we believe him or not.. it seemed pretty real though, can't place it in my head as scum

going to think he may be town now, just don't think his current play makes sense as scum at all

On May 18 2017 08:37 Prison Break wrote:
if I'm wrong though I'm going to hate myself ... ugh.... I don't like changing reads but I have a bad habbit of tunneling, shouldn't be limiting myself just because I could be wrong, if he's scum and I'm wrong then that sucks, but I am confident enough in my townread to not want to lynch him today


Coming into day 3 during the night he had LS/Palmar/HF as town reads with SL/me or SL/Vivax as the scum team.
On May 19 2017 01:53 Prison Break wrote:
I've nailed it down to this

town: LS, Palmar, HF

scum: Grack or Vivax
scum: sicklurker

but vivax pushed sicklurker, so grack is more likely. vivax did have a weird post where he'd question why people would lynch sicklurker though, which can be interpreted as softdefending. I really don't like vivax "if my townread on TW is anything like my townread on PB then he must be mafia", that sounded insincere and it's complete bullshit. what's holding me back is that vivax pushes sicklurker now

as for grackeroni, he mentioned my post seemed scummy (where I went from scumreading HF to townreading him based on his posting), then when called out on it he basically retracted it pretty fast. seemed like he was trying to see if others would catch on, and when they didn't he kind of dropped it. Very scummy. If HF is town, and I went from scumreading to townreading him, then I can imagine scum being frustrated by that because they obviously want town to kill other town, so I can see this play having a scum motive. Don't see how it makes sense from town though

I think 2 scum is between these 3, LS palmar have been townie all game. no way HF is scum and being that paranoid yesterday, that seemed very real and townlike. so yeah I want to lynch between these 3, and I think both scum are between them

However, if you look at the posts between the night and the day 3 lynch he doesn't do anything to try to lynch me or SL. I would expect from his annoyance with Fuba being lynched that he would prod people harder to kill Sicklucker. He says he'll join the HF wagon because he doesn't want scum to decide the lynch, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me that he would say that right after seeing SL push me into joining the HF wagon. It seems a lot like the behavior of somebody not wanting to look bad in case HF flips.

On May 20 2017 14:12 Prison Break wrote:
4, he doesn't have lightning strike

I'll vote HF because I don't want scum to decide the lynch

Still not convinced you're town for the record but I'm not going to be able to convince 4 people after I've already brought up all arguments, and we need a lynch. If HF flips scum you'll receive townie points for pushing it through though

At least this lynch is better than palmars because palmar got greenchecked day 1, which gives him over 67% of being town (can only frame 1 of the 3 members, aka 33% it was palmar)


A lot of his posts come off as townie to me, but his posts are pretty well reasoned and concise, and I think he has the potential for a pretty strong scum game.
Prison Break
Profile Joined April 2017
326 Posts
May 26 2017 19:00 GMT
#2854
I don't think I played that bad, especially if I'm right on grack, but I learned a lot nonetheless. if I'm wrong on grack then lightningstrike played it excellent, but I don't see that as a likely possibility
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 26 2017 19:02 GMT
#2855
On May 27 2017 03:58 Prison Break wrote:
I still think it's grack and he hoped I would auto-lynch lightningstrike today

it doesn't help that he's willing to switch to me now, because if he thinks lightningstrike is scum, then it's better to try to convince me to lynch lightningstrike instead, but he gave up pretty quickly on that after I made my intention clear

I want to see gracks flip because I think we won this game. him saying I played brilliant if I was scum but bad if I was town could be a method to manipulate me into unvoting, because no one wants to be called bad on their first game, obviously. but I'm not going to fall for that

I just can't see lightningstrike leaving me alive here, so it's pretty auto from my PoV

I just don't like that I'm the only one filtering. I think it would be really clever if as scum you pushed LS and then killed SL and flipped based off that. Since LS already wanted to kill me before it basically ensures that I get lynched.

Prison Break
Profile Joined April 2017
326 Posts
May 26 2017 19:04 GMT
#2856
my response to that:

I actively tried to get sicklurker killed throughout the game

I have not been active as the same people due to time zones mainly, so often when I was online others weren't, and when others were I wasn't. but I've pushed sicklurker a lot. I didn't push you as much because I was less certain, that was more a possibility, not a hard read. I associated HF and sicklurker because of early interactions (HF kept telling me to look elsewhere), but when sicklurker hard bussed HF I knew I was obviously wrong. I don't think scum would kill him there, as they could've easily killed palmar for example, it didn't make sense for them to be a team based on that
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 26 2017 19:07 GMT
#2857
On May 27 2017 04:00 Prison Break wrote:
I don't think I played that bad, especially if I'm right on grack, but I learned a lot nonetheless. if I'm wrong on grack then lightningstrike played it excellent, but I don't see that as a likely possibility

I think you played better than me whatever alignment you are. It's probably LS though.
Prison Break
Profile Joined April 2017
326 Posts
May 26 2017 19:07 GMT
#2858
On May 27 2017 04:02 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2017 03:58 Prison Break wrote:
I still think it's grack and he hoped I would auto-lynch lightningstrike today

it doesn't help that he's willing to switch to me now, because if he thinks lightningstrike is scum, then it's better to try to convince me to lynch lightningstrike instead, but he gave up pretty quickly on that after I made my intention clear

I want to see gracks flip because I think we won this game. him saying I played brilliant if I was scum but bad if I was town could be a method to manipulate me into unvoting, because no one wants to be called bad on their first game, obviously. but I'm not going to fall for that

I just can't see lightningstrike leaving me alive here, so it's pretty auto from my PoV

I just don't like that I'm the only one filtering. I think it would be really clever if as scum you pushed LS and then killed SL and flipped based off that. Since LS already wanted to kill me before it basically ensures that I get lynched.



wouldn't it be smarter to leave my options open as scum? the flipflop could also be seen as suspicious. I don't think my play would be good from a scum PoV

I read through the filters but nothing in it changed my mind. yes, HF pushed lightningstrike which could be scum vs scum, but that still doesn't explain the sicklurker nightkill over myself, so it is not strong enough for me to think lightningstrike is scum now
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9856 Posts
May 26 2017 19:12 GMT
#2859
On May 27 2017 04:07 Prison Break wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2017 04:02 Grackaroni wrote:
On May 27 2017 03:58 Prison Break wrote:
I still think it's grack and he hoped I would auto-lynch lightningstrike today

it doesn't help that he's willing to switch to me now, because if he thinks lightningstrike is scum, then it's better to try to convince me to lynch lightningstrike instead, but he gave up pretty quickly on that after I made my intention clear

I want to see gracks flip because I think we won this game. him saying I played brilliant if I was scum but bad if I was town could be a method to manipulate me into unvoting, because no one wants to be called bad on their first game, obviously. but I'm not going to fall for that

I just can't see lightningstrike leaving me alive here, so it's pretty auto from my PoV

I just don't like that I'm the only one filtering. I think it would be really clever if as scum you pushed LS and then killed SL and flipped based off that. Since LS already wanted to kill me before it basically ensures that I get lynched.



wouldn't it be smarter to leave my options open as scum? the flipflop could also be seen as suspicious. I don't think my play would be good from a scum PoV

I read through the filters but nothing in it changed my mind. yes, HF pushed lightningstrike which could be scum vs scum, but that still doesn't explain the sicklurker nightkill over myself, so it is not strong enough for me to think lightningstrike is scum now

I thought it could work well as a buddying tactic. It didn't really have much of an influence on my read of you.

I can't say much about the night kills. The reasoning is a bit circular. If you get killed off will SL use that as reasoning to kill LS? SL bases a lot of his reads on night kills (if you notice, he jumped to Palmar right after Darthfoley got killed on night 1).
Prison Break
Profile Joined April 2017
326 Posts
May 26 2017 19:18 GMT
#2860
there's 2 differences though

- sicklurker specifically didn't tell scum what he was going to do, so leaving him alive would be a gamble

- I have been stubborn this game, so would lightningstrike really assume that I was going to change my mind based on this reasoning?

it's wifom nonetheless
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