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On March 20 2017 04:48 Xatalos wrote:
Maybe it'll do good to distance myself from this mess a bit. At the moment I have a significantly stronger scumlean on rayn than before N1 started though. Every time rayn has scumread me for stupid reasons like that EOD thing, he's been scum so far.. I guess we've fought our fair share as town vs town too, but then it's usually been because I made some sort of huge blunder, not because he's trying to fling random small points against me. That's only happened with scum rayn.
Note also how he's scumread me pretty much all game, only with shifting (weak) reasons.
Well, AFK for a while now... If I happen to die, keep a close eye on rayn.
You should probably lay off the meta reads. Correct me if I am wrong but you two haven't played together since...2014? 2015? Your meta tells are probably outdated if I'm right.
I'm starting to think that the townie-looking people who aren't really DOING anything are more likely to be mafia.
disformation. Can anyone tell me what he is doing? Because I can't remember a single thing he's done outside of the early game. His VCA posts are a more boring version of my own take on the votes. It didn't feel like his analysis was very insightful.
Koshi. Again, nice filter but hasn't done a lot. Not so sure on this one, could just be busy for 92 hours like he said.
ritoky. Lots of debate-orientated points in his posts to DF which are great theoretically but don't mean anything for his alignment. Has the Eden post, however.
Rels/ Onegu. I think Rels is more likely to be scum here, just because I don't spot any incongruencies with Onegu's current posting.
Eden does not actually fit into this heuristic. He has those forceful posts on me going for him. Will have to see his response to the current events though.
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On March 20 2017 05:01 disformation wrote:
i guess that means you disagree with my point on tumble?
There was a point?
Reading your "well maybe he has an alignment" post made me so demotivated that I'm not even sure you believe it yourself.
And if you don't believe it then why should I? As you note, there is plenty of doubt about Tweedledumb's alignment around EOD.
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I'm town-reading Tweedledumb because every fucking time someone pressures him, he consistently comes back with extremely townie responses and reactions to things which might not subscribe to conventional wisdom as to what townies 'should' do but look genuine nonetheless. He isn't trying to look good either; something I believe mafia in this game would aim to do. Case in point, his response to rayn and open admission of not having any proper scum-reads/ wanting to vote someone who had not posted.
Also he seems like the easy scum-read for most people right now and it's giving me deja-vu vibes a la Malongo.
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On March 20 2017 05:06 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2017 05:04 Calix wrote:On March 20 2017 05:01 disformation wrote:
i guess that means you disagree with my point on tumble? There was a point? Reading your "well maybe he has an alignment" post made me so demotivated that I'm not even sure you believe it yourself. And if you don't believe it then why should I? As you note, there is plenty of doubt about Tweedledumb's alignment around EOD. yeah. fine. if you ppl dont read my posts at all i just can stop posting them. the point that his "paranoia" can very well be mafia being paranoid of looking bad of what is soon to be a lynched town.
We would barely notice, scumformation 
I don't see why scum!Tweedledumb would have even bothered posting what he did at EOD. Makes no sense to come in, fumble around between wagons and basically do nothing but look extremely and overtly suspicious for NO gain.
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No, because Tweedledumb is lynch-bait and Eden has only been mislynched like, once before as town.
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On March 20 2017 05:14 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2017 05:10 Calix wrote:On March 20 2017 05:06 disformation wrote:On March 20 2017 05:04 Calix wrote:On March 20 2017 05:01 disformation wrote:
i guess that means you disagree with my point on tumble? There was a point? Reading your "well maybe he has an alignment" post made me so demotivated that I'm not even sure you believe it yourself. And if you don't believe it then why should I? As you note, there is plenty of doubt about Tweedledumb's alignment around EOD. yeah. fine. if you ppl dont read my posts at all i just can stop posting them. the point that his "paranoia" can very well be mafia being paranoid of looking bad of what is soon to be a lynched town. We would barely notice, scumformation I don't see why scum!Tweedledumb would have even bothered posting what he did at EOD. Makes no sense to come in, fumble around between wagons and basically do nothing but look extremely and overtly suspicious for NO gain. why would town!tw post that then? thats my problems, as described in the earlier post. doesnt make a lot of sense as either alignment. so it goes both ways aaand is a bit of a too scummy to be scum argument again. i also admit that it is not full lockdown slam dunk scum, but i think it has a decent chance to come from scum. so a scum lean.
Because he was genuinely conflicted over what to do at EOD, therefore fumbling around, hopping on and off wagons without any regard for how that would look because townies in that situation act first and think later?
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Xatalos, just focus on actually getting ONE mafia lynched first pls. Your pre-flips make me relate to baby killers.
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And yes, I don't understand how the concept of "townies under pressure are usually not logical" is just clicking with you two now 
Anyway, have I made myself clear? I feel dirty from defending someone for so long, ugh.
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On March 20 2017 05:28 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2017 05:25 Calix wrote:And yes, I don't understand how the concept of "townies under pressure are usually not logical" is just clicking with you two now Anyway, have I made myself clear? I feel dirty from defending someone for so long, ugh. If you die, I'll promise to let Tumble be for a while  (Of course not counting major new developments)
Well I'd prefer that you did that because you actually think my arguments are good, not just because you're giving me the equivalent of a pity fuck.
I don't think he's a good lynch because I think the thread is way too clean right now. That immediately tells me that there has to be at least one veteran who is good at making himself look like town.
The majority of the people who fit this profile are scum-reading Tweedledumb (who does not fit this profile whatsoever).
Therefore I feel that Tweedledumb is not going to result in a scum flip. I'm sick of telling myself "oh this game is easy, it's probably Rels/ Onegu/ TW/ whatever easy target is order of the day" when that's most likely not the case.
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@Damdred, I see you posting and stubbornly keeping on with your Tweedledumb scum-read even though I demolished that argument. Why don't you get in here and actually counter my points? 
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On March 20 2017 05:40 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2017 05:30 Xatalos wrote:On March 20 2017 05:28 Damdred wrote:On March 19 2017 06:40 Tumblewood wrote:On March 19 2017 06:36 Damdred wrote:On March 18 2017 13:58 Tumblewood wrote:
okay great filter sesh!
where i am at
town, i think
calix
disfo
eden
malongo
dbs
koshi?
needs more examination but their filters were kinda long
rayn
damdred
xata
koshi?
bad
rels
onegu
scummy
df Can you explain how you want from thisto willing to lynch mal willing-ish just then because plynches are never bad but the wagon is so sketchy that I am swinging back to no I would like to point out you guys aretalking about giving someone a free pass tommorow for being jumpy from one wagon to the next. Even though he didn't start doing that until he got called out for the shot he was doing with his townread. LikeI he was doing it before I called him out we would be cool. But he didnt. hmm? Tumble did not start pulling the confused not sure where he wanted to go until he started getting called out and questioned about why he wanted to lynch his townread. Then he said he didn't want to lynch rayn, but the vote should be damdred v rayn. This sequence is distinctly different from someone who justbisnt sure what he wants to do.
Pretty sure he said that he didn't want to see Rayn lynched because the potential loss (if Rayn was town) was greater than if Malongo was town.
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On March 20 2017 05:44 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2017 05:43 Calix wrote:On March 20 2017 05:40 Damdred wrote:On March 20 2017 05:30 Xatalos wrote:On March 20 2017 05:28 Damdred wrote:On March 19 2017 06:40 Tumblewood wrote:On March 19 2017 06:36 Damdred wrote:On March 18 2017 13:58 Tumblewood wrote:
okay great filter sesh!
where i am at
town, i think
calix
disfo
eden
malongo
dbs
koshi?
needs more examination but their filters were kinda long
rayn
damdred
xata
koshi?
bad
rels
onegu
scummy
df Can you explain how you want from thisto willing to lynch mal willing-ish just then because plynches are never bad but the wagon is so sketchy that I am swinging back to no I would like to point out you guys aretalking about giving someone a free pass tommorow for being jumpy from one wagon to the next. Even though he didn't start doing that until he got called out for the shot he was doing with his townread. LikeI he was doing it before I called him out we would be cool. But he didnt. hmm? Tumble did not start pulling the confused not sure where he wanted to go until he started getting called out and questioned about why he wanted to lynch his townread. Then he said he didn't want to lynch rayn, but the vote should be damdred v rayn. This sequence is distinctly different from someone who justbisnt sure what he wants to do. Pretty sure he said that he didn't want to see Rayn lynched because the potential loss (if Rayn was town) was greater than if Malongo was town. That is deffinately not the point I we obviously making
Then kindly explain it better. I don't get your "he said the vote should be DDD vs Rayn" since he didn't say that, he just said that he thought you could be mafia with Rayn. Am I wrong to assume you're arguing that? And he said on several occasions that Rayn could be town and expressed doubt about both wagons so that supports the confused hypothesis.
This answer is kinda crappy so we should probably start over from square one -.-
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On March 20 2017 05:50 Damdred wrote:
Ok I'll say it simply,
Tumble only started to look like confused town when he was questioned about his wanting to lynch his townread mal.
Before that he was perfectly fine with everything.
Okay, I'll timeline it.
So TW posts his reads at #626
He pops in later with #820, says he would like to lynch someone worse but isn't crazy about Malongo
You call him out for #626 with #830
TW makes another post, #832, where he criticises the Malongo wagon because of rayn's apparent overconfidence in it
Then he responds to #830 to say that policy lynches are never bad but he thinks the wagon is sketchy
So while I see where you are coming from wrt lack of confusion, Damdred, the fact that he had literally just popped into the thread is a mitigating factor in your argument and he had already expressed doubt before he responded to you. If he had confused to post in a coherent, calm fashion then I'd be more inclined to think it's a tell.
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I'm not sure how disformation did the same thing as me but reached a different conclusion. Hm.
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Anyway I think I am going to take a step back from the Tweedledumb thing. I think I'm getting too invested in 'proving' that he's town as opposed to being rational about it since I've been doing it for quite a while now and will be less willing to consider arguments to the contrary.
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On March 20 2017 06:05 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2017 05:58 Calix wrote:
I'm not sure how disformation did the same thing as me but reached a different conclusion. Hm. I think the difference is that you are saying that the didnt see damdred calling him out until he made the second post on the wagon.
Time stamps show that there were only 1-2 minutes (21:36-21:38) between Damdred calling him out and Tweedledumb making his second post.
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I also never thought I'd see the day that I used TIME STAMPS as an argument, lol.
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On March 20 2017 06:21 Xatalos wrote:
Notable also that rayn's suspect list stayed the through the whole D1 (me/Damdred/Malongo). Even now it's mostly the same, after Malongo flipped town.
This is actually a good point. And you didn't even need meta for that
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Is it still silence period or not? O.o
Screw it, post anyway.
I was 100% not expecting that kill...which furthers my suspicions that something is off with this game. I would bet that ritoky had better reads than average if a replacement was shot N1.
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EPT
