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Liquidmania Qualifier #2 - Page 60

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
January 18 2017 17:29 GMT
#1181
follow my post previously about who to lynch/town read ez game
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
January 18 2017 17:30 GMT
#1182
On January 19 2017 02:22 Holyflare wrote:
This is how I see it:

Vivax switches to hapa and hapa becomes leading wagon.

Myself and damdred exclaim how ls is a good lynch because of his contradictions and stances on me/hapa and how ls was voting me.

I don't think it's opportune to vote LS at this point UNLESS hapa is mafia with damdred, which I'm not currently in the world of. I think it was just a good (obviously bad with hindsight) call out of inconsistent points. Thing I haven't checked is whether damdred jumped onto the ls wagon sheeping my points or whether he called them out at the same time.

fair enough
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
January 18 2017 17:31 GMT
#1183
On January 19 2017 02:28 Holyflare wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 19 2017 02:22 Holyflare wrote:
This is how I see it:

Vivax switches to hapa and hapa becomes leading wagon.

Myself and damdred exclaim how ls is a good lynch because of his contradictions and stances on me/hapa and how ls was voting me.

I don't think it's opportune to vote LS at this point UNLESS hapa is mafia with damdred, which I'm not currently in the world of. I think it was just a good (obviously bad with hindsight) call out of inconsistent points. Thing I haven't checked is whether damdred jumped onto the ls wagon sheeping my points or whether he called them out at the same time.


Ah okay it was wayyyyyyyyyy after I already pointed out LS so yeah in retrospect not as great as I thought. Damdred returns, votes hapa when vivax switches. I call out some points on ls and damdred switches before I've got enough consensus to switch. At no point were myself or hapa a majority wagon though and there were 8 minutes to go. A hapa lynch seemed likely with consensus so it's plausible he switches to save but I'm not so sure when the LS points were pretty good.

well to be fair when i was reading u looked like u were gonna be lynched and i really really didnt want either of you or Rels ... i was happier with Rels because of his attitude but attitude like that usually indicates town to me (some people are emotional when they aren't "in the know")
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
iamperfection
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9647 Posts
January 18 2017 17:31 GMT
#1184
rels the vt is dead you have 48 hours with 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
January 18 2017 17:32 GMT
#1185
I feel like Riggs in Lethal Weapon - I'm prepared to die to do my duty

lost my wife... my unborn child... gotta serve and protect now puts on shades* 8)
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
January 18 2017 17:33 GMT
#1186
i literally just called Rels town right before he flipped

glad im reading this game properly (i guess)
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
January 18 2017 17:33 GMT
#1187
This deadline is throwing me off so bad. GG Rels.

##Vote Alakaslam
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
January 18 2017 17:34 GMT
#1188
im surprised mafia killed last night and didnt try a gambit
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
January 18 2017 17:35 GMT
#1189
##alakaslam
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
January 18 2017 17:37 GMT
#1190
The gist of the vote is that Slam seems pretty adamant at EoD he will not lynch into HF or Myself, and insists he will go find "who he thinks is mafia."

While active over the next 20-25 minutes, he posts a lot of waffly things, concludes he reads Damdred poorly, then says he would support a Damdred lynch.

He finishes the day without voting.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
January 18 2017 17:38 GMT
#1191
There's also that "Hapa is conftown n stuff" thing early on Day 1 which I don't think we ever got a satisfying explanation of.

I had been reading Slam town on meta, but given how old his last few mafia games are, I don't think it's a strong enough reason to think he's town over his thread behavior.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
January 18 2017 17:39 GMT
#1192
Rels dying has me looking at Onegu, Damdred more

He also talked to Vivax a lot. Don't think he suspected him, though?

(just on the last couple pages of his filter)
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
January 18 2017 17:39 GMT
#1193
Can you draw any conclusions from that?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
January 18 2017 17:41 GMT
#1194
I'm just voting him because he's being the least helpful. Well, that isn't fair. I'm rusty so I'm kinda just sheeping HF. you have good points on him. Rels had me looking into Onegu a bit more ... sucks that he died because I was townreading him.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
January 18 2017 17:42 GMT
#1195
On January 19 2017 02:39 Hapahauli wrote:
Can you draw any conclusions from that?

conclusions on Onegu, or Damdred? Those were the people Rels wanted to lynch.

Conclusions therefore are either A) One of those 2 killed him

B) someone else/others killed him to incur a mislynch and lead it into lylo/mylo [if they nk] but it would be pointless for mafia to nk if it creates a stronger town either through 1) more information or 2) town can simply NL
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
January 18 2017 17:44 GMT
#1196
if ur wanting me to draw conclusions unrelating to those two and relating to rels+vivax interaction, i guess the conclusions from that would most likely be rels thought vivax was worthy of conversing with and looked at him in a favorable light
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
January 18 2017 17:45 GMT
#1197
which is my 2nd indicator of vivax town today, even if it's just from re-reading

2/2 vivax town from re-reading dead filters tho ... and vivax himself says that as time progresses people get an easier read on him if he's scum. well, i'm reading him as town more and more, and i'm always wrong, so maybe he's scum? lol. jk?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
January 18 2017 17:46 GMT
#1198
Who do you think is mafia?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22395 Posts
January 18 2017 17:47 GMT
#1199
BM I can hear the obswarriors screaming for you to pull your head out of your arse.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22395 Posts
January 18 2017 17:51 GMT
#1200
On a more serious note, I don't think NK analysis will take you anywhere. While you can be right on NK analysis in general, anyone claiming that it's not reliable is also right.

For example, to me the thought simply occurs: Why aren't Hapa or HF dead if they are town? Why am I not dead? I can think of the answers but I don't want to put this up for discussion simply cause at the end of the day, nobody can know or prove what scum was thinking.
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