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Hm, looking at Rels' case though, DYH looks a bit worse than I thought.
Could it really be as simple as Skynx+DYH.......
Probably not. But I bet my Mafia career at least one of them is scum at this point.
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On September 28 2016 01:21 Tictock wrote:
Nah Skynx is town brah.
Mafia very rarely call out their teammates like that so early, even if it was somewhat throwaway.
You are right he never pushed Lunatic very hard, so it's not so weird that he doesn't mention him in that big post you quoted. Besides that post is overall actually pretty decent with the points he brings about DYH.
I also have a hard time buying that one of Luna's scum mates would offer themselves up like you are implying while also making a halfway decent case on someone at the same time, and never try to cash in on any bus potential.
Wouldn't really say that, I've seen it happen. It's pretty "cheap" to make some forgettable comments at the start of the game. It could just be an easy distancing plot - no cost associated, maybe someone will townread him for it later. He never posted against Lunatic or the like again so it really was throwaway....
I somehow doubt he would have gained anything from voting Lunatic at that point. He had already been reluctant and didn't have a reason to vote for him other than bandwagoning. Might as well vote some random target?
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What was the case on scott again? He doesn't seem that bad on second look. The only maybe questionable comment I noticed was this:
On September 25 2016 15:49 scott31337 wrote:
I don't think anyone is town-reading or defending Luna - which makes me worry.
But really, it's not that bad.
Gonna have to relook at the epic event listpost....
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Hm, I think ptmc's post goes slightly too far when accusing scott. Maybe only half of those events seem bad in some form. Not really convinced..
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On September 28 2016 01:31 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2016 01:06 Xatalos wrote:Ok, first there's this post: On September 24 2016 16:18 Skynx wrote:
Hmm Lunatic intro worst i guess.
Man i dont get why get this PL discussion every game. Its quite simple, odds are town barely have any info D1 to decide on a proper lynch, hence guy with 2 posts dies. Sometimes scum slip, or someone has incredible meta read confidence or w/e, then you dont't pl. Simple stuff. You could look at it as a Lunatic push, but it's really not. It's just a random comment with no follow-up or relevance whatsoever. Could be distancing, could be a genuine throwaway comment, nothing conclusive either way. It was just a forgotten line in a forgotten post. But after that he basically ignores everything Lunatic-related, only making these comments that can't be exactly called as anti-Lunatic: On September 25 2016 04:37 Skynx wrote:
What makes you so soure Stutters pr Lunatic? On September 26 2016 02:33 Skynx wrote:On September 26 2016 02:21 Xatalos wrote:
Well, actually there's also a third scenario, where he's town and simply messed up by making a blue read, including it in his read list for some reason (without specifically saying that he thought he was a blue) and then saying it out loud in the heat of the moment. I guess that's a bit more likely than the scenario #2 after all since he's a newbie... But scenario #1 seems the most credible one, I guess. Hm. Any opinions? Man I somehow feel like Luna is just misinformed town trying to cover up mistake of being lazy and saying he's blue. AND then there's the worst part: On September 26 2016 03:38 Skynx wrote:Fuck me actually i dont think I'll have any time at all  I'm an ok lynch if u guys feel like it sry i thought i'd have more time to play but im kinda moving houses and uni begins tomorrow. If not tho my top sr is DYH. His chain of questions few pages back really don't accomplish anything at all. It really looks like he's farming town points while doinh nothing. On September 25 2016 10:16 DoYouHas wrote:On September 25 2016 10:15 Jealous wrote:On September 25 2016 00:23 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 23:53 DanelerH wrote:I am not liking Lunaticman right now. First of all, basically all Lunatic has done is posted a random Town read. Let's take a look at it: On September 24 2016 16:38 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 16:18 Skynx wrote:
Hmm Lunatic intro worst i guess.
Man i dont get why get this PL discussion every game. Its quite simple, odds are town barely have any info D1 to decide on a proper lynch, hence guy with 2 posts dies. Sometimes scum slip, or someone has incredible meta read confidence or w/e, then you dont't pl. Simple stuff. Somehow I knew you would say that. I hope we can stay on friendly terms this time around but I doubt it. Stutters is so far the most obvious townie. I am a bit afraid of the logical development of this game. TL is filled with smarties that loves to talk the talk but always lynch the random dude that didnt sound smart. This will be the doom of us all I tell you, nobody can look more perfect then the mafia because they already know everything! This looks like the current meta afk townies and leading mafia for sure. This totally reminds me if the palmar/hf domination game check it out. Lunaticman just throws a random Town-read in the middle of a bunch of irrelevant information. Furthermore, xe doesn't give any reasoning for the Town-read. When asked about it, xe responded with this series of posts: On September 24 2016 20:07 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 19:29 Rels wrote:On September 24 2016 18:13 Lunaticman wrote:
[quote]
Stutters is obvious town for me at least, I can understand why you wouldn't notice but I have played with him 4 times in a row and I'm pretty sure he is town. Please explain Well I don't want to day 1 because of reasons to be disclosed at a later date. He is not going to be lynched today at the very least. On September 24 2016 20:49 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 20:27 Rels wrote:On September 24 2016 20:07 Lunaticman wrote:
[quote]
Well I don't want to day 1 because of reasons to be disclosed at a later date. He is not going to be lynched today at the very least.
I'll remember that. This "I promise I have ghood reasons" comes more often from scum than from town though. That is just speculation and if you were town you wouldn't force me to say why I have a town read. On September 24 2016 21:20 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 20:51 Rels wrote:On September 24 2016 20:49 Lunaticman wrote:
[quote]
That is just speculation and if you were town you wouldn't force me to say why I have a town read. Why woudln't I do such a thing ? So apparently you think I'm scum ? No I didn't say that you are scum I just find it suspect why I have to tell you why I town read him even though I don't want to yet. There is no reason not to give your reasoning for a Town-read. I want to know why you think Shutters is Town and I will not accept "I'll tell you later" as an answer. The game is 4 pages long day one, take a chill pill. I dare to say I have done more than half the players in the game and in my experience you never hit mafia day one. It is much better to build a town circle. Also Stutters is in all likelyhood a blue role. And if he dies it is on you and Rels. Am I crazy for thinking this is an anti town post? Making Stutters out to be blue role with no nuance is downright retarded. It is absolutely anti-town. Do you think it is bad play or scum? On September 25 2016 10:53 DoYouHas wrote:
So is it bad enough that you would want to lynch him or do you currently have a stronger scum read on someone else currently? I mean these supposed to make it look like he's pressuring Jealous for explanations but he sort of responds and nothing from DYH regarding his stance on Luna. Then he switches to SEQ, stating bunch of thoughts which actually doesn't say anything. On September 25 2016 11:02 DoYouHas wrote:On September 25 2016 10:56 Stutters695 wrote:On September 25 2016 10:11 DoYouHas wrote:
I am around Stutters. What are your thoughts on ptmc? I'll trade you for some on SEQ. I don't think ptmc is a better lynch before SEQ gets to respond. Voting me with his focus on Luna is super weird also. SEQ does not bother me much at all. He reads like he jumped in with both feet and started rooting around. The line you bolded would be weak reasoning if he had actually gone after Xata or spread suspicion on him, but I don't think he did. He moves on pretty quickly and after talking about mafia in a pretty general sense (not unusual for someone new to forum mafia, especially with Jealous getting into it too) he seems to be scumhunting. You have picked a pretty early statement from him that does not, to me, hold the significance you are assigning it. Like there is not a final verdict, he says he doesnt bother him then bunch of thoughts filling the air and thats it. On September 25 2016 11:35 DoYouHas wrote:On September 25 2016 11:29 Stutters695 wrote:On September 25 2016 11:02 DoYouHas wrote:On September 25 2016 10:56 Stutters695 wrote:On September 25 2016 10:11 DoYouHas wrote:
I am around Stutters. What are your thoughts on ptmc? I'll trade you for some on SEQ. I don't think ptmc is a better lynch before SEQ gets to respond. Voting me with his focus on Luna is super weird also. SEQ does not bother me much at all. He reads like he jumped in with both feet and started rooting around. The line you bolded would be weak reasoning if he had actually gone after Xata or spread suspicion on him, but I don't think he did. He moves on pretty quickly and after talking about mafia in a pretty general sense (not unusual for someone new to forum mafia, especially with Jealous getting into it too) he seems to be scumhunting. You have picked a pretty early statement from him that does not, to me, hold the significance you are assigning it. All of his statements are from around that time. Not to mention the apologetic/cautious nature. Just kind of screams first time scum to me. I want to see what you are seeing. I think you are likely town. Can you walk me through it like I'm an idiot? Where is his apologetic/cautious nature evident? This is kinda more evident of all tho, when he pushes Jealous for avoiding answering questions and he himself disappeara after this kind of questioning. Yeh my top lynch target i guess, all of this above feels like activity for sake of activity to me. Thats best i can do from phone guys, sory for being afk so far this game Hopefully i can pick it up later on. This post is basically saying just "lynch me or DYH". Nothing about Lunatic at this point. It would make a lot of sense if Skynx was just a Mafia Goon or something and it would suck to lose the Roleblocker, so it would be even better to kill himself than Lunatic? Naturally he votes for DYH though. I guess this means DYH and Skynx probably aren't scum together though. But nothing really makes Skynx town and a lot of things fit with him being Lunatic's partner. 1) Mostly ignoring Lunatic-related events in the thread. 2) No real stance on him except slight reluctance to lynch him. 3) Ultimately preferring to even lynch himself over Lunatic....? Moving on.... My dear Xatalos, 1) You are accusing me of ignoring Lunatic-related events when you're the one trying to shut down blue discussion the moment it started. 2) The WORST PART: You are implying me focussing some one else than scum makes me scum, however half the game is now scumreading DYH. Even Rels of all people who initially tought it was bs. Do you think DYH is town in this case? Do you think my reads on DYH is bullshit? If you not, how does having a logical case on someone else when another mafia dies makes me scum? 3) Mafia 100000% busses here, i don't even have to explain this. Lunatic was unsaveable, he slipped. 4) That post is not saying "lynch me or DYH". I was offski most of D1 so town would be rightfull to lynch me so it was me showing some activity in the short amount of time I had. I made my stance about Luna earlier as u quoted, no need to repeat in every post something Luna related because he flipped scum. 5) Your entire strategy suggesting me sacrificing myself for Luna I have no idea how someone can see that here. So I was afk on purpose to save my scumbuddy on EoD by suggesting myself as a policy lynch??? 6) So the whole thing is mostly associative that now Super is dead and Luna is scum and I'm the only off-wagon. Nice try. Verdict: Scum This is not a push town would make. He's basically invalid and wrong about every point made and reaching conclusions that are totally irrelevant to what he quotes as a reasoning. Big up tho, you made my life easier cuz now i don't have to check your filter to conclude you're highly likely scum.
OMGUS mucho 
How do my own doings relate to what you did? If I did something "bad", it doesn't atone for you.
DYH isn't confirmed scum. If he were, then you would look somewhat better of course, but that's not the case, and can't be the basis of my read on you.
Like I said, bussing at that point wouldn't have done you any good. In fact, it could have backfired, like could have happened with DYH/scott if one of them is scum.
Well, have fun pushing me if you're scum. If you're town, I'd suggest something more productive.
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On September 28 2016 01:36 Tictock wrote:
Aww Skynx, I was gunna call Xata scum.
Now I don't get to feel so original.
Oh?
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I'll have to be AFK for a while, but I'm sure it'll be fun to read through those cases when I get back.
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On September 28 2016 01:57 Tictock wrote:Well I'm still a bit behind, but I did get through D1 and I might as well post this now. I think Xatalos is scum. Reading through the game I had the distinct impression that he waited as long as possible to discuss Lunatic, and when he did was always very wishy-washy about it. This was the post that first made me raise an eyebrow. Show nested quote +On September 24 2016 22:14 Xatalos wrote:On September 24 2016 08:26 DanelerH wrote:On September 24 2016 08:21 Jealous wrote:On September 24 2016 08:19 Stutters695 wrote:On September 24 2016 08:04 Xatalos wrote:
Unfortunately, looks like you can't vote for yourself in this setup :/ To everyone else, this is why we should lynch him today. He's always one step ahead, we'll never catch him. On a more serious note, how does everyone feel about going with the scummiest of the inevitable inactives? Activity always seems to be a struggle in these games and I won't be lynchbait for once. I'm usually pro-PL but it's too early to make such a decision. We need to see how others are posting. It's odd that you suggest this so early. This, plus there's Shutter's first post: On September 24 2016 07:46 Stutters695 wrote:
I'm here and not scum. How disappointing.
Anyway, as it stands I'd be all for a d1 Xata lynch. Pretty sure he's fooled me like the last 3 times he's been mafia and that's no good.
It's not technically a role claim, but it's certainly something unnecessary to say. Why would your first sentence be the equivalent of "I'm not a Mafia."? While it's nothing definite, it seems rather odd to me. Probably the worst post in the game so far (and definitely the worst of the opening posts). It's a wishy-washy suspicion riding on already existing suspicions. Pretty much the safest possible suspicion to make as scum, and leaves you with plenty of options to proceed (vote for him if it gains steam or forget it if not). Even the tone is so passive and uninvolved.. This was well after Lunatic's entrance and after he had fallen under some pressure. I suppose part of this is simply a "What game is he reading?" sort of reaction because this was far from any of the posts that I found interesting. What really struck me though was that this post implied that Xat had caught-up with the game, but besides asking Rel's his opinion and talking about blues there is literally no mention of Lunatic's posts until here. Which is especially Ironic given Xat was just accusing Skynx of having "no real stance on Lunatic events?" and that was literally my first thought about him while reading. It's worth noting his later posts as he decides to vote Lunatic as well. + Show Spoiler +Sorry not 100% these are in order, these start on pg 3 of Xata's filter On September 25 2016 21:05 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2016 17:20 Calix wrote:
Actually Lunatic looks like a better lynch with how he's reacting to the pitiful amount of pressure he's getting and aside from "over-reacts to pressure and is making bad posts out of frustration" I'm confused as to why he's acting like this in the first place. I haven't seen anything explicitly townie from him either.
Anyway, he says he's one of the more productive players - if that's productive then this game is a spam-fest. He also claims he's building a town circle which I have yet to see on both points. (his weird-ass town-read on Stutters doesn't count) I recall him saying he was going to investigate the first few posters or something - has he followed up on that?
With regards to TPR-hunting, again, that's anti-town because scum would just post their TPR-reads into their private chat. It's also insanely retarded to do as town and if Lunatic thought that Stutters was blue then he should have just defended Stutters using his posts to avoid this. I have no idea what he was trying to achieve there but I guarantee that the execution was terrible.
This read is shit because a lot of his actions require a crapload of WIFOM to decipher. His mindset doesn't make any bloody sense to me and I don't see a coherent explanation for his actions for town or scum, so I'd like to clear that up.
This reasoning is similar with Daneler to an extent as I am finding him difficult to place. However he is less disruptive to the chat compared to Lunatic. Yeah, that whole situation seems pretty stupid from any perspective. No reason to out a blue read in any form as town (even in the form of a non-reasoned strong town read -> pretty obviously a blue read), but no reason to start talking about that as scum either (just putting negative attention on himself for no reason). I guess it was some panic decision under pressure. Maybe leaning scum after all because why would he panic so much as town under a little pressure? Hmmm. Well, let's say he would be a lynch candidate, definitely over Stutter. On September 25 2016 21:10 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2016 18:23 Lunaticman wrote:
I wonder how not wanting to state a read because it will reveal a blue role is equal towards being mafia. The reason for not saying anything is because that is based o information town dont want mafia to know.
This game is just full of paragraf knights. I told you why I didnt want to say my SINGLE read and I got forced. Saying I wasnt forced is a lie.
And when I do say why Im a coward, so either way Im scum. And that dosent even make sense.
It is also intresting to see that town once again town reads the people with most posts as town.
Remember that mafia always sound smater and better because they know who is mafia and are working with perfect information.
Lastly I yet to see a day one lynch of a mafia player so anything that happens day one usually is just speculation.
My time is precious this weekend the little spare time I have not working is spent defending myself. I dont really have time to do what I want which is identify townies and lookig for mafia in the top posters day one.
A good example is my last normal game in which I found the gf day one and was unsuccessful in lynching him 3 days in a row because the mafia undermined me constantly. But why did you say that Stutter was a strong town read in the first place without any reasoning? Isn't that the same as claiming that he's potentially a blue in your opinion (from scum perspective)? Granted, it could also be a complicated meta reason or something, but having a blue read is often the reason if someone doesn't want to say his reasons for a read. And then why reveal the blue read so quickly anyway under a bit of pressure? It's just... pretty much a disastrous chain of events, especially if you're town and correct. It's also disastrous if you're scum, so... Just why? On September 25 2016 21:15 Xatalos wrote:
On second thoughts, I can think of two potential scenarios where those events would make some sense. I think the scum scenario makes a bit more sense, given that he's a newbie. I'll wait a bit more before saying them out loud. On September 25 2016 23:39 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2016 23:26 Lunaticman wrote:On September 25 2016 21:10 Xatalos wrote:On September 25 2016 18:23 Lunaticman wrote:
I wonder how not wanting to state a read because it will reveal a blue role is equal towards being mafia. The reason for not saying anything is because that is based o information town dont want mafia to know.
This game is just full of paragraf knights. I told you why I didnt want to say my SINGLE read and I got forced. Saying I wasnt forced is a lie.
And when I do say why Im a coward, so either way Im scum. And that dosent even make sense.
It is also intresting to see that town once again town reads the people with most posts as town.
Remember that mafia always sound smater and better because they know who is mafia and are working with perfect information.
Lastly I yet to see a day one lynch of a mafia player so anything that happens day one usually is just speculation.
My time is precious this weekend the little spare time I have not working is spent defending myself. I dont really have time to do what I want which is identify townies and lookig for mafia in the top posters day one.
A good example is my last normal game in which I found the gf day one and was unsuccessful in lynching him 3 days in a row because the mafia undermined me constantly. But why did you say that Stutter was a strong town read in the first place without any reasoning? Isn't that the same as claiming that he's potentially a blue in your opinion (from scum perspective)? Granted, it could also be a complicated meta reason or something, but having a blue read is often the reason if someone doesn't want to say his reasons for a read. And then why reveal the blue read so quickly anyway under a bit of pressure? It's just... pretty much a disastrous chain of events, especially if you're town and correct. It's also disastrous if you're scum, so... Just why? So you don't have hunches? I'm just saying nothing that has been said today has been nothing but speculation and you are accusing me of not giving reasons? God ok I'll play your game: Stutters is town because I have a meta read on him. Satisified? "No, how can you know that?" "Because I played with him before" "Really explain!" On and on this goes. the TL mafia community really has a hard time dealing with people playing emotionally rather than using logic. I'm probably not going to respond to anything related to my first town read anymore. It feels like beating a dead horse. Wasn't it a blue read earlier....? On September 26 2016 02:16 Xatalos wrote:
Huh. Yeah, I wanted to see some more posts before revealing my thoughts on Lunatic, but doesn't seem like anyone is really posting...
So here are the two scenarios that I could imagine earlier:
1) Scum: He was trying to gain some easy credibility by pointing out a town read based on actual reasoning (blue read on Stutters after bluehunting him, as scum tend to bluehunt more often than town). Then he went into a bit of a panic after he got pressured for not reasoning his read and immediately claimed the blue read, which doesn't make much sense as town, but makes a bit more sense as scum since he wanted to relieve the pressure on him ASAP. In hindsight the play was a mistake (claiming Stutters was town without saying the reason), but it would make some sense from scum perspective at the time of doing it, especially since he's a newbie.
2) Town: Actually it was all a big WIFOM play as town to gather reactions and confuse scum bluehunting. However, this seems less likely since he's a newbie and still hasn't claimed anything of this sort despite lengthy posting on the topic.
So all things considered, him being scum makes quite a bit more sense IMO. On September 26 2016 02:21 Xatalos wrote:
Well, actually there's also a third scenario, where he's town and simply messed up by making a blue read, including it in his read list for some reason (without specifically saying that he thought he was a blue) and then saying it out loud in the heat of the moment. I guess that's a bit more likely than the scenario #2 after all since he's a newbie... But scenario #1 seems the most credible one, I guess. Hm. Any opinions? On September 26 2016 02:25 Xatalos wrote:
Meh, not totally sure, but I think he still seems a bit worse than DanelerH atm.
As for others, can't say I've found anything especially suspicious otherwise. Stutters' thing against Soul still confuses me. As for Jealous, I guess he could be scum, he's been pretty passive/blendy, but nothing really jumps out as scummy from him that I've noticed. There is a lot there, the stuff that I noticed was just how hard of a time Xata had calling Luna scum, he seems like he really wants to try and defend him in some of these posts, yet just can't quite do it. It reads exactly to me like a mafia who realizes he needs to bus and over-elaborates theread on his mate. It's weaker, but I also get the distinct impression that around the time of the quote from the top of this post (around pg 14) that Xata was kinda drawing attention away from what was some mounting pressure on Lunatic. That might be a bit of confirmation bias there though.
By the time I made the DanelerH post there wasn't really much about Lunatic. He had only made his Stutters read, didn't yet claim it was a blue read. Once he did, I admit I might have focused too much on the blue issue, but it kind of felt like he could have genuinely blue read Stutters and it took priority for me. Once I reread the situation from the perspective of Lunatic being scum and faking it, I came to the conclusion that he was probably scum and started pushing him among the first people... Can't really compare my actions to Skynx who never pushed or voted him...
I think my analysis of the situation was pretty good, even if I say it myself. Why would I only consider the possibility of him being scum? It wasn't a sure-fire scum lynch, but a probable enough one, and I still stand by my stances for the day.
Now I'll be AFK for an hour or so...
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On September 28 2016 02:41 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2016 02:36 scott31337 wrote:
So Xata, you saying your scum reads are DYH, Skynx with me as a possible third, is that correct? Scumreads DYH, scumreads me for scumreading DYH when I was supposed to scumread Luna. Feelsbadman.
Too much Twitch....
You're probably not scum with DYH, but it's very possible you're the scum out of that duo.
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On September 28 2016 02:36 scott31337 wrote:
So Xata, you saying your scum reads are DYH, Skynx with me as a possible third, is that correct?
Dunno about you. More of a null than scum. Otherwise yea
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I'll answer to earlier questions for me etc. later, but I had an idea while at work that I just had to start working on as soon as I could... So the following post is about that. It should make things a lot clearer at least for me 
The idea being: two levels of scummy interactions, one for Lunatic <--> others and the other for the scummiest of the previous ones <--> each other to figure out 3-man scumteams that make sense. Let's see where this goes. (huge thanks to ptmc's post here by the way, it saved me a lot of time: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/513316-newbie-student-mafia-xxiii?page=35#695 )
1) Lunatic <--> others
DanelerH
Pushed Lunatic through most of D1 and possibly caused him to "shut down" in the thread. I highly doubt he would do that to his teammate. Lunatic appeared genuinely pressured as well, making odd (in hindsight) claims like the blue read on Stutters and going overly defensive.
Calix
Pretty much started the Stutters-read pressure on Lunatic and participated in forming his lynch wagon. Kind of similar to DanelerH, hard to see scum doing that to each other from the start of the game.
Stutters
A more controversial pick for green color, perhaps, but I agree with whoever said that it would be extremely rare for scum to immediately throw a strong townread on their teammate like Lunatic did. It would only link them together in everyone's minds (something scum would definitely not want) and make the other look bad/scum if the other flips. In addition, it wouldn't come naturally as a careless throwaway comment like how Lunatic said it. It just fits so much better as a casual, too strong townread on someone he would know to be town in advance. Also, I have an interesting theory related to Stutters, but that's best left for later.
Rels
Jumped on the Lunatic wagon pretty early and questioned his read on Stutters earlier on, but nothing truly conclusive. Town lean?
- - - - - - (the point after which I can see these people being scum with Lunatic to some meaningful extent)
SEQ/Tictock
Voted for Lunatic, but otherwise ???
Jealous
Hard to say. Had Lunatic as a lynch candidate / scum for most of D1, but nothing exactly conclusive to their relations happened.
scott
Can't say I agree with ptmc's assessment about how weirdly he interacted with Lunatic. His posts almost mirror my thoughts at the time of their writing (even regarding Stutters and DanelerH)... but it's true that he was pretty "on the fence" about lynching Lunatic or not during D1 so it's not too hard to see a Lunatic/scott team.
DYH
Passive towards Lunatic and the whole D1 lynch in general. His Lunatic vote was pretty "resigned" and late as well. Could well be scum with Lunatic.
Skynx
Soft-defended Lunatic, ignored him or counter-pushed away from him on several occasions during D1 (see ptmc's eventlist for easy details, just search for "Skynx" lines in red text, or read his filter). Never pressured Lunatic or contributed to his lynch either (no, the one-liner "Lunatic had the worst intro post I guess" didn't impact his own or anyone else's play during D1). A Lunatic/Skynx scumteam makes the most sense to me.
2) Sensible scumteams?
Now it's the time to check if any of the players who could be scum with Lunatic would fit as scum with each other.
Skynx/DYH?
Doesn't seem very likely. Skynx pushed DYH late during D1, and it would be pretty stupid to go through that trouble just to perhaps get a scum lynched instead of another scum. More sensible options would have been to bus Lunatic or to push a townie. I guess it could have been distancing, but that doesn't seem likely in that high-stakes situation.Verdict: NO
Skynx/scott?
Skynx soft-defends scott in a couple of his posts, otherwise nothing. scott barely mentions Skynx, but when he does, in a slightly positive light. This team could make sense. Verdict: YES
Skynx/Jealous?
Jealous doesn't really mention Skynx until very recently where he said that he "doesn't like Skynx but he's not necessarily scummy". Skynx doesn't really talk about Jealous at all. Verdict: YES
Skynx/SEQ/Tictock?
Not much, but Skynx congratulates SEQ for questioning Lunatic... And Tictock calls Skynx town for "pressuring Lunatic"??? In reality, it was the opposite situation, just read Skynx's filter or ptmc's summary. Not really sure if scum would so blatantly prop up another, but something is off. Verdict: YES
DYH/scott?
Not completely sure about this one, but I guess they do fit somehow. scott agrees that DYH is scummy, but not much beyond that.... They also have a weird interaction where they start to "chat" with each other, but nothing happens? Verdict: YES
DYH/Jealous?
Not likely. DYH has pressured/scumread Jealous on several occasions and similarly Jealous has been scumreading DYH. A double bus in this game state is a bit too unlikely... Verdict: NO
DYH/SEQ/Tictock?
DYH defended SEQ somewhat, but Tictock has been quite anti-DYH. Could be bussing, I guess, but hard to say. Verdict: ?
scott/Jealous?
scott scumread Jealous D1, but townread him after the Lunatic lynch since Jealous "never wavered on lynching Lunatic". Jealous put scott as a lynch candidate after Lunatic was lynched. Overall, uncertain for now. Verdict: ?
scott/SEQ/Tictock?
Kind of like with Jealous, scott first (slightly) scumreads SEQ and townreads him after Lunatic was lynched since he "never wavered on lynching Lunatic". SEQ never mentions scott. Tictock calls scott "prob town but kinda null". I guess this scumteam could work... Verdict: YES
Jealous/SEQ/Tictock?
SEQ townreads Jealous early on, later on unsure. Tictock calls Jealous null. Jealous doesn't really voice an opinion on SEQ/Tictock. Verdict: YES
If I missed something, please point it out. This has been a ton of work and there's probably a mistake somewhere at this point.
In any case, it's time for the conclusions based on earlier stuffs. Here are the sensible possible scumteams that are left now:
Skynx/scott
Skynx/Jealous
Skynx/Tictock
DYH/scott
scott/Tictock
Jealous/Tictock
Frankly, I'm not too confident that DYH is scum based on this. He would almost have to be scum with scott. Meanwhile Skynx could basically be scum with anyone besides DYH. scott isn't very limited either, but I like him better than either Skynx or DYH.
Well, I'd be glad to hear other opinions on these findings.
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Huh, I seem to have forgotten ptmc in the list. Probably because he wrote the list I used as reference for the first part of my post. I'll check his filter later to see if there's anything,
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On September 29 2016 02:44 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2016 02:38 Xatalos wrote:
SEQ/Tictock
Voted for Lunatic, but otherwise ???
I refuse to believe you have literally no read on me.
That was just the part about D1 interactions with Lunatic. Although I'm not really sure about you either, yet. I'll take a closer look after I'm back after a bit of AFKing
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Skynx's static non-reaction to my biggest contribution so far ("still scum because OMGUS, nothing will ever change that!") makes me quite sure that he has to be scum.
If you're still not convinced, read this with some thought and then look at Skynx's filter:
On September 29 2016 02:38 Xatalos wrote:
Skynx
Soft-defended Lunatic, ignored him or counter-pushed away from him on several occasions during D1 (see ptmc's eventlist for easy details, just search for "Skynx" lines in red text, or read his filter). Never pressured Lunatic or contributed to his lynch either (no, the one-liner "Lunatic had the worst intro post I guess" didn't impact his own or anyone else's play during D1). A Lunatic/Skynx scumteam makes the most sense to me.
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ptmc is probably town. It looks like it's even his first forum game and he's already putting in that much effort... Would be a bit hard to imagine for scum.
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Hm, still not really sure about Tictock. Too many conflicting signals. I'll just put him at null for today and figure him out later.
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For the record, I agree that my earlier case (not the piece of text I just wrote) on Skynx was a bit crap, now that I look at it. It didn't really convey well what I thought about him. It's better to just ignore my earlier case and look at his actions directly with the question in mind "what if he was trying to save Lunatic from getting lynched D1?"
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On September 29 2016 03:31 scott31337 wrote:
Work has been really crazy today so I've only skimmed today's posts - I'll try to be back in a little bit.
Read my posts and make your signature come true
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On September 29 2016 04:07 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2016 03:29 Xatalos wrote:
For the record, I agree that my earlier case (not the piece of text I just wrote) on Skynx was a bit crap, now that I look at it. It didn't really convey well what I thought about him. It's better to just ignore my earlier case and look at his actions directly with the question in mind "what if he was trying to save Lunatic from getting lynched D1?" So even given this, and keeping the same question in mind, you still find Skynx more likely to be scum than DYH?
Also because DYH doesn't fit into many scumteams of him+Lunatic+X while Skynx does, yeah, I think Skynx is a bit more likely scum.
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On September 29 2016 04:10 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2016 02:38 Xatalos wrote:I'll answer to earlier questions for me etc. later, but I had an idea while at work that I just had to start working on as soon as I could... So the following post is about that. It should make things a lot clearer at least for me The idea being: two levels of scummy interactions, one for Lunatic <--> others and the other for the scummiest of the previous ones <--> each other to figure out 3-man scumteams that make sense. Let's see where this goes. (huge thanks to ptmc's post here by the way, it saved me a lot of time: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/513316-newbie-student-mafia-xxiii?page=35#695 ) 1) Lunatic <--> othersDanelerHPushed Lunatic through most of D1 and possibly caused him to "shut down" in the thread. I highly doubt he would do that to his teammate. Lunatic appeared genuinely pressured as well, making odd (in hindsight) claims like the blue read on Stutters and going overly defensive. CalixPretty much started the Stutters-read pressure on Lunatic and participated in forming his lynch wagon. Kind of similar to DanelerH, hard to see scum doing that to each other from the start of the game. StuttersA more controversial pick for green color, perhaps, but I agree with whoever said that it would be extremely rare for scum to immediately throw a strong townread on their teammate like Lunatic did. It would only link them together in everyone's minds (something scum would definitely not want) and make the other look bad/scum if the other flips. In addition, it wouldn't come naturally as a careless throwaway comment like how Lunatic said it. It just fits so much better as a casual, too strong townread on someone he would know to be town in advance. Also, I have an interesting theory related to Stutters, but that's best left for later. RelsJumped on the Lunatic wagon pretty early and questioned his read on Stutters earlier on, but nothing truly conclusive. Town lean? - - - - - - (the point after which I can see these people being scum with Lunatic to some meaningful extent) SEQ/TictockVoted for Lunatic, but otherwise ??? JealousHard to say. Had Lunatic as a lynch candidate / scum for most of D1, but nothing exactly conclusive to their relations happened. scottCan't say I agree with ptmc's assessment about how weirdly he interacted with Lunatic. His posts almost mirror my thoughts at the time of their writing (even regarding Stutters and DanelerH)... but it's true that he was pretty "on the fence" about lynching Lunatic or not during D1 so it's not too hard to see a Lunatic/scott team. DYHPassive towards Lunatic and the whole D1 lynch in general. His Lunatic vote was pretty "resigned" and late as well. Could well be scum with Lunatic. SkynxSoft-defended Lunatic, ignored him or counter-pushed away from him on several occasions during D1 (see ptmc's eventlist for easy details, just search for "Skynx" lines in red text, or read his filter). Never pressured Lunatic or contributed to his lynch either (no, the one-liner "Lunatic had the worst intro post I guess" didn't impact his own or anyone else's play during D1). A Lunatic/Skynx scumteam makes the most sense to me. 2) Sensible scumteams?Now it's the time to check if any of the players who could be scum with Lunatic would fit as scum with each other. Skynx/DYH?Doesn't seem very likely. Skynx pushed DYH late during D1, and it would be pretty stupid to go through that trouble just to perhaps get a scum lynched instead of another scum. More sensible options would have been to bus Lunatic or to push a townie. I guess it could have been distancing, but that doesn't seem likely in that high-stakes situation. Verdict: NOSkynx/scott?Skynx soft-defends scott in a couple of his posts, otherwise nothing. scott barely mentions Skynx, but when he does, in a slightly positive light. This team could make sense. Verdict: YESSkynx/Jealous?Jealous doesn't really mention Skynx until very recently where he said that he "doesn't like Skynx but he's not necessarily scummy". Skynx doesn't really talk about Jealous at all. Verdict: YESSkynx/SEQ/Tictock?Not much, but Skynx congratulates SEQ for questioning Lunatic... And Tictock calls Skynx town for "pressuring Lunatic"??? In reality, it was the opposite situation, just read Skynx's filter or ptmc's summary. Not really sure if scum would so blatantly prop up another, but something is off. Verdict: YESDYH/scott?Not completely sure about this one, but I guess they do fit somehow. scott agrees that DYH is scummy, but not much beyond that.... They also have a weird interaction where they start to "chat" with each other, but nothing happens? Verdict: YESDYH/Jealous?Not likely. DYH has pressured/scumread Jealous on several occasions and similarly Jealous has been scumreading DYH. A double bus in this game state is a bit too unlikely... Verdict: NODYH/SEQ/Tictock?DYH defended SEQ somewhat, but Tictock has been quite anti-DYH. Could be bussing, I guess, but hard to say. Verdict: ?scott/Jealous?scott scumread Jealous D1, but townread him after the Lunatic lynch since Jealous "never wavered on lynching Lunatic". Jealous put scott as a lynch candidate after Lunatic was lynched. Overall, uncertain for now. Verdict: ?scott/SEQ/Tictock?Kind of like with Jealous, scott first (slightly) scumreads SEQ and townreads him after Lunatic was lynched since he "never wavered on lynching Lunatic". SEQ never mentions scott. Tictock calls scott "prob town but kinda null". I guess this scumteam could work... Verdict: YESJealous/SEQ/Tictock?SEQ townreads Jealous early on, later on unsure. Tictock calls Jealous null. Jealous doesn't really voice an opinion on SEQ/Tictock. Verdict: YESIf I missed something, please point it out. This has been a ton of work and there's probably a mistake somewhere at this point. In any case, it's time for the conclusions based on earlier stuffs. Here are the sensible possible scumteams that are left now: Skynx/scott Skynx/Jealous Skynx/Tictock DYH/scott scott/Tictock Jealous/Tictock Frankly, I'm not too confident that DYH is scum based on this. He would almost have to be scum with scott. Meanwhile Skynx could basically be scum with anyone besides DYH. scott isn't very limited either, but I like him better than either Skynx or DYH. Well, I'd be glad to hear other opinions on these findings. Some of these are some crack smoking teams - I'm town so a lot of them are crack but - DYH/me - so I push my other teammate in n1/d2 and lay a vote on him at the beginning of d2 and have others hop on it, so I'm all by myself for 3-4 mislynches. Yeah that'll work Me/TT - so SEQ/TT starts the train on his teammate, and then when TT replaces in, he's got legitimate thoughts and we mindmeld together because we are mafia together? mmhmmm I think this is quite a bit of stretch and what you are throwing out, to be honest. It's why I asked you who your two scummates are. Now it looks like you are throwing shit to see what sticks. Not good.
Take it as you wish.
As for the corrections, I don't think DYH/scott is quite as unlikely as DYH/Skynx. DYH was already heading to the slaughter and it's not unimaginable that you would feel the need to bus at this point. Granted, it's not one of the most likely teams (and I did mention that I'm unsure about that one). Maybe I should have ranked them in order of likeliness.
As for scott/TT, when did SEQ push you? I'm not sure if I follow.
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EPT
