Newbie Student Mafia XXIII

On September 29 2016 22:17 Calix wrote:
So I decided to look back through the posts leading up to the ML and I think Jealous has the most questionable sequence with regards to his DYH read.

Here's what tipped me off:

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On September 28 2016 08:31 Jealous wrote:
It seems like people have mostly vocally agreed on DYH with a few exceptions, but I don't see the votes on him. I'll construct my case on him then, just so that it's out there. I was going to revisit Stutters but I see DYH as priority right now. Working.

On September 28 2016 09:09 Jealous wrote:
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On September 24 2016 11:26 DoYouHas wrote:
I think I like you as well Stutters. Good on ya.

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I'll try to get into something beyond these gut reads tomorrow, hopefully when a few more people have posted. As is I'm pretty happy with tonight. 3/5 for my town pile and 2 I need to think about and watch. Gnight.

Promises more substance tomorrow, let's see if he delivers.

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On September 25 2016 10:11 DoYouHas wrote:
I am around Stutters. What are your thoughts on ptmc? I'll trade you for some on SEQ.

He's been gone for almost 24 hours and comes back with this. For reference, Stutters was making a case on SEQ and told people to go look at SEQ filter. DYH is basically saying "okay, I'll do what you suggest to check out your scumread and work with you, but only if you give me your thoughts on ptmc, about whom I haven't said a word yet." I don't know if this is very townie behavior. Why wouldn't he just give his thoughts on SEQ and then ask about ptmc?

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Interesting post from Xata on this, prior to DoYouHas' return:

On September 25 2016 06:50 Xatalos wrote:
DoYouHas did make quite a bit of posts earlier btw.

6 posts, only 4 of which were during the game, and none of which had substance besides 3 gut reads. Is this really worth commenting on? Is this really "quite a bit?" Hmm.

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On September 25 2016 10:16 DoYouHas wrote:

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It is absolutely anti-town. Do you think it is bad play or scum?

On September 25 2016 10:53 DoYouHas wrote:
So is it bad enough that you would want to lynch him or do you currently have a stronger scum read on someone else currently?

On September 25 2016 11:09 DoYouHas wrote:
@Jealous, are you in and out? Why is it taking you this long to respond to me?

As Tictock pointed out, DYH seems to be pressuring me more than Lunatic despite (at least superficially) agreeing with me that Lunatic is playing anti-town. In fact, DYH hadn't said a word about Lunatic at all up until this point. Surely he saw the post? Why ignore Lunatic? Why jump on me?

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On September 26 2016 03:45 DoYouHas wrote:

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You have Giacomo! (so long as you are leading against DH, Luna, or Jealous)

So he throws Luna into the mix now that Luna has drawn attention but dilutes it by throwing two other names in there, neither of which he had mentioned until now. The only person he had really said anything of substance about until here is SEQ, besides his gutreads at the start of the game. (Also, he didn't really contribute anything in over 27 hours, despite promising to do so). This is his first time calling any of the three scum, and does it in a way that provides no substance whatsoever.

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On September 26 2016 03:58 DoYouHas wrote:

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Activity levels are low and there are better lynch targets than you, especially if your going to ramp up.

DH's tunnel onto Luna is very contrived with no follow through. Pair that with his questionable early posting and it feels like scum to me. Maybe he brings something to the table before deadline now, but it feels like he tunneled just long enough to get the spotlight on someone else then disappeared.

Luna made an anti-town play and has essentially shut down since coming under the displeasure of the thread, making him a very reasonable lynch and possible scum. I don't think making a meta read is in any way alignment indicative but I appear to be in the minority on that.

Jealous started with fluff, then stirred the pot, and finished by being super non-commital. Townies should be trusting there own judgement over that of people's whose alignments are uncertain. Also potentially scum.

Here he elaborates, imaginably because he is trying to get Superbia to sheep him. Doesn't like DH for scumreading Luna, despite also saying Luna is "possible scum," and then puts me in the same group again. Note, I was against Luna at the time as well. How would that team of 3 ever make sense? Both I and DH go for a bus halfway through D1 when there were only a handful of pages and posts, after telling Lunatic to post like an idiot? That's a stretch, and DYH makes no sense here otherwise.

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On September 26 2016 04:04 DoYouHas wrote:

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I don't think Luna and Dane are likely to be scum together, but taking there play individually I think either of them could be scum here. Is that what you meant?

I guess this explains the previous post somewhat, but he only makes the distinction when asked by Superbia? You would think that would be something you'd want to put in your post that is supposed to be informative to Superbia, and not only when probed further. In short, he threw out three scum reads he had never mentioned until then, then elaborated on it, but didn't mention he didn't think they were on a team together. That's careless at best; misleading seems more likely.

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This post still sucks.

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On September 26 2016 04:27 DoYouHas wrote:

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Or maybe, just maybe, both of your assumptions are wrong here.

1. I wasn't providing a null read on SEQ
2. I was actually trying to have a conversation with someone I townread.

Stutters being the "someone I townread," which he did with "gut" in the first few hours of the game, which he never mentioned again. Also note that he still hasn't provided anything as he had promised at the start.

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On September 26 2016 10:32 DoYouHas wrote:
Ok, here is where I'm at for the night

Mafia
Jealous

Town
Rels
SEQ
Calix
Stutters
Skynx

Probably Town
Xata

Looking better post-flip
Dane

Unsure
Scott
Superbia
ptmc
Dane(again)

I ask why I am his scumread, only scumread.

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On September 26 2016 11:56 DoYouHas wrote:
GRAH, I CAN'T MAKE IT STICK

For everything I don't like about you and think makes you scum: Your early fluff, non-committal, over-defensiveness, appeals to your noobieness, misrepresenting me, buddying Calix, looking at the proposal of multiple wagons from a mafia perspective instead of a town one (looking at it as a trap to be avoided instead of as an opportunity for better VCA) I can't seem to find the mafia actions in your play around the lynch. If I'm having trouble convincing myself of probably the most important part when I undoubtedly have my confirmation bias glasses on it probably isn't there. I was seeing your tonal shifts from casually attacking Luna to guarded consideration then back to casual attacking as very odd. But the thing I can't figure out if you are scum is why you would leave your vote on Luna and not Stutters before the wagon on Luna got rolling. This post:

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It doesn't fit or is significantly more clever than I am.

Damn, damn, damn. I hate having no scum reads. I really do need to get to bed though. See you all with the daypost.

This takes him a whole hour and he calls me all sorts of terrible but still can't make a case. This means he is town/null-reading everyone in the game, was pushing a lynch/scumread since his first few posts D1 that he himself can't support and had given no concrete evidence on at all until he was forced to draw some out. That is simply foolish, and scummy in my book.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/513316-newbie-student-mafia-xxiii?page=40#791
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/513316-newbie-student-mafia-xxiii?page=40#792

These are his last two posts, nearly a day ago. And frankly, I don't think they are very good. Although I think Rels post did have some stuff I didn't agree with, and DYH pointed them out, the rest of it was pretty weak. He doesn't make much sense in some parts nor does he substantiate much of his argument about why DH or I were scummy, which he references a few times. His earlier posts on the subject were, as you can see above, were weak as well, so it's not like he could reference some strong analysis from before.

Overall, I think DYH is scum. I don't think neither Xata nor skynx are worth a vote right now, but I will definitely look into them more in detail. There are still some fishy things I don't like about Xata and Skynx doesn't seem to be paying much attention to the game in certain posts of his, which I don't like but can't necessarily say is scummy until I see them side-by-side in analysis.

So yea, I voted DYH.

He acknowledges that DYH is someone that pretty much everyone agrees is scummy, yet he thinks that it's a good use of his time to make a massive case against him and hop on the train because 'he doesn't have that many votes on him'. Keep in mind that DYH is the leading train at this point with the Xatalos/ Skynx thing being supported by almost nobody save for each other and Stutters having a few supporters. That is it. The Stutters train was not even a thing for most of the day.

He references a fair number of arguments used by other players (TT, myself, etc) and the points he added aren't anything massively incriminating in retrospect. My point? It makes me wonder why Jealous felt the need to devote a large amount of his time to a case on someone that he was already scum-reading given that he largely rehashes the arguments of other players and this is all on a player that he's already given opinions on. That's not a case of bad priorities, that's posting for the hell of it.

If you want an example of not-scummy points he raised, look no further than him criticising DYH for going "Lunatic, Jealous, DanelerH are my scum-reads" because "that team makes no sense". This is all fine and dandy...if we were talking about a post made on Day 4. That's not the case though; he's talking about reads made early on Day 1. Most players do not consider associative tells that early on in the game because the goal is to lynch a scum. Until then, you have no concrete information to base associative reads from so criticising DYH for that is nit-picky and doesn't add anything to the argument.

This is also one of the worst EOD posts:

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As you can see, he is showing some doubt over DYH flipping scum. That's all fine, nothing to see there, but his reasoning is absolutely insane.

tl;dr:

- DYH showed up when he got voted
- Scum wouldn't bother to turn up because scum!Jealous would not bother

As Rels said earlier, this is a piss-poor reason to start doubting a scum-read when a) scum 100% would want to defend themselves so that they...don't get lynched and b) time-zones/ RL commitments can also influence if someone arrives at EOD.

That's not a strong enough explanation to make anyone doubt themselves about a read, especially after the case that Jealous made where he concluded 'scum'. The mere act of posting at EOD when you are being voted has jack shit to do with your alignment.

Furthermore, he wasn't interested in switching wagons from DYH so I see no logical or emotional motivation for this sudden doubt. Thus I'm concluding that he's full of shit. That post had him stretching so hard for an excuse to distance from the ML that he sprained a muscle.

Yeah this got my attention during EOD as well. Jealous was very quick to throw out the idea of DYH being town for bad reasons.
Scums are most likely in Jealous / Stutters / scott

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