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Well I started to run out of time here so had to start skimming more than I might have liked, but here we are.
Town:
Calix - + Show Spoiler +I started to review Calix's filter but after about a page and a half I think I have to conclude that Calix is just obv town. Entire play just seems clear and sensible, and is rather active to boot. I'm impressed with how care much care Calix takes with making reads as well, seems to be carefully considering town and scum mindsets.
Calix is also almost 100% town based on the early vote and push on Lunatic. When I was first reading the game I picked up on a couple of posts where it looked like Calix was hedging and didn't give much credit for lynching Lunatic. Reviewing now I see that Calix's inital reaction was what made me thing that but quickly changed to a scumrean reviewing things further. Really unlikely that scum changed gears that fast on a teammate and votes 2nd on the wagon.
Rels - + Show Spoiler +Pretty much the first person to pressure Lunatic. Even if I thought Rels would bus a teammate so early I would never believe it would go down like what happened.
He is French, but we really can't hold that against him.
ptmc - + Show Spoiler +Mostly just sticking with my initial gut read on this guy, but his effort and investment level pretty much never comes from newbie scum.
Townlean:
Jealous - + Show Spoiler +Kinda a toneread, kinda me being lazy.
Honestly even skimming his filter I don't see much that really sways me one way or another, but I do sorta like/agree with his reads.
Skynx - + Show Spoiler +I guess I might just be reading Skynx via meta here, but I still think he is likely town.
Calling out Lunatic's open right off the bat feels weird if they are scum together, and while Skynx wasn't really pushing Lunatic his posts read like he is just dropping thoughts on all parts of the game.
Meta wise I just think Skynx feels really relaxed and is freely sharing thoughts. It's been awhile but the last time I saw him play as scum he came off pretty awkward and his reads weren't very organic. Pretty much the opposite of what I see this game.
scott31337 - + Show Spoiler +I'm not sure I have anything new to add on Scott, he's town from the way he is approaching the game reacting to stuff and posting his thinking. He rarely posts more than he is, and as scum tends to have far less actual content in his posts.
Null:
DanelerH - + Show Spoiler +I could actually go either way on this guy fairly easily.
On the one hand he seemed to be pushing Lunatic rather early on, and I thought his case on stutters in #691 was decent.
On the other his vote on Lunatic was pretty late despite being so early on the push, he's made two cases but otherwise has little substance to reads, both votes are just hop on's (idk how to say it better).
Scum:
Stutters695 - + Show Spoiler +I think at best I can consider Stutters a scum favored coin-flip. My gut still wants to read him as town though.
I still kinda like his opening play, he seems carefree not afraid to draw attention and rub people the wrong way. The stuff with Lunatics post is there, but is is pretty WIFOM.
Overall-though Stutters has very little contribution, his weak D1 push on SEQ was based on one observation that never went anywhere. He jumped on Lunatic wagon super late and with nothing behind it. He gets defensive at night and then has basically been afk without any real thoughts put out into the game.
Xatalos - + Show Spoiler +I'm actually less sure that I was before, I'm just leaving him down here kus I'm not convinced he's town and I ran out of time for a proper re-read.
Tbh though I'm not sure I have much faith in these scumreads my heart just isn't in them, right now Stutters seems like he's gunna force us to lynch him though since he's apparently back and reading the game but isn't playing.
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On September 30 2016 07:02 scott31337 wrote:
A'ight. What do you think TT? Put some pressure on Xata? Wait for stutters to shit out some info? What do you think?
Help me remove my doubts on Xata being scum here. I'm not sure I followed your EoN read on him.
Stutters isn't worth discussing until he does something (even if that something is go awol for 48 hours again).
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Also it's a bit scary how closely our reads line up.
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Actually I think I know exactly what i want to do, but first I'd like to see where more people stand.
Also should take a few min to reread Rels posts one more time.
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Holy shit scott just linked to my first Mafia game every.
Honestly scott I'm not sure where you are going with this.
On September 26 2016 23:59 Superbia wrote:
Also I have nothing really solid on stutters but I think he's town.
Super wasn't scumreading Stutters?
Also scanning over Stutters play in the game you linked he looks pretty different from this game. Biggest thing I'm noting is that Stutters played that game very much with the perfect info he had, he defended town and bussed his teammate fairly hard D2. It was pretty clear that he was trying to setup mislynches after his teammate flipped by association. He also doesn't seem to have a very hard time posting in that game imo.
I'm not much of a meta-read guy so I wouldn't put a ton of stock in this since people change and games are different. Still I don't think meta supports Stutters being Mafia very well this game.
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On October 01 2016 02:31 DanelerH wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2016 01:08 Xatalos wrote:Finally back. Expected Calix over Rels, but maybe dodged or something. On September 30 2016 09:59 DanelerH wrote:Thank you for the answers, Scott. Now I have a question for Xatalos: On September 29 2016 02:38 Xatalos wrote:
Stutters
A more controversial pick for green color, perhaps, but I agree with whoever said that it would be extremely rare for scum to immediately throw a strong townread on their teammate like Lunatic did. It would only link them together in everyone's minds (something scum would definitely not want) and make the other look bad/scum if the other flips. In addition, it wouldn't come naturally as a careless throwaway comment like how Lunatic said it. It just fits so much better as a casual, too strong townread on someone he would know to be town in advance. Also, I have an interesting theory related to Stutters, but that's best left for later. I'm interested in this theory you have that's related to Stutters. Mind sharing it? I'm assuming it relates to the second good reason you have to Town-read Stutters. + Show Spoiler +On September 29 2016 07:08 Xatalos wrote:
Hm. stutters didn't vote?
There are still two good reasons to townread him, but his play is really... Sorry, it's confidential for now... And not entirely certain. I'll say my thought there when the time is right. However, I'll counter by asking... Where are you going with these questions to different players? Sorry, it's confidential for now... In all serious, though, I noticed a correlation between Superbia and Rels. They were both suspicious of Scott, which is why I started by questioning xem. Judging by Scott's answers, I feel like xe might be leaning Town. They were also both suspicious of you, so I questioned you next. Based on your answer, you're sounding less Town.
Can you expand on what you thought was towny about Scott's response and what was scummy about Xata's?
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On October 01 2016 02:55 Xatalos wrote:
In any case, they should be both lynched over stutters every time.
If stutters keeps getting votes, I'll probably need to share my other reason. But the first reason (Lunatic's scum->town-like reaction to stutters) is already pretty clear.
Lets play a game...
Just based on posts made from the start of this Phase, who would you vote between Scott/Skynx?
At least a sentence as to why as well plz.
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Somebody kick my ass if I don't get around to doing real filter reads of Jealous and Xat sometime in the next 24 hours.
Thankfully I'm quite certain Calix is town so that is one large filter I don't need to review.
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On October 01 2016 04:07 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2016 03:10 Tictock wrote:On October 01 2016 02:55 Xatalos wrote:
In any case, they should be both lynched over stutters every time.
If stutters keeps getting votes, I'll probably need to share my other reason. But the first reason (Lunatic's scum->town-like reaction to stutters) is already pretty clear. Lets play a game... Just based on posts made from the start of this Phase, who would you vote between Scott/Skynx? At least a sentence as to why as well plz. Oh yeah, forgot this post. scott maybe. Didn't really like his post asking for what actions to take today from you (too consensus-blendy). His post against stutters was also a bit WTF (that's a reason to suspect him, like really now?). His reasons to suspect me were also pretty forced and sudden. Skynx didn't really do anything of note today. So yeah, scott has started to look worse lately. Maybe he would even be the safer bet at this rate. Why?
Not sure that you've ever really given a proper scumread on Skynx. If my glance through your filter is correct that read started because of your team speculation post.
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Too bad I didn't catch ptmc before he goes away.
We are not lynching Stutters today guys, I get it but I am willing to go with my gut that he is town.
I'm starting to think we should lynch Scott.
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I'll write up a case on Scott later.
His push on Stutters seemed really out of place to me. He asked my opinion, then ignored my response to make a bad push on somebody who hasn't been around and everyone is scum reading anyways.
A few other things feel like they are falling into place considering Scott as scum as well, but I'm still mulling things over.
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Oh I am throwing a vote down btw, sorry kinda only half here atm.
##Vote: Scott
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Sorry guys didn't get a chance to type up my thoughts last night, so getting on that now.
Gotta say though I find it a bit disappointing that there are basically no new posts and that nobody tried to review a guy with a 3 page filter >.<
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The Case on Scott
Just for a change of pace and to keep this post from getting unmanageable I'm going to link to posts rather than quote them directly, at least for the most part.
Regarding Lunatic:
Feel like I should just get the done first and get it out of the way.
Scott first mentions Lunatic in #380 though he is pretty much just mirroring what has already been said about Lunatic. In the very next post Scott throws out doubts because nobody is defending Lunatic.
Last we get #518 which is when Scott decided to vote for Lunatic. To me this post reads as though Scott is reluctant to lynch Lunatic, but has no better alternatives (this will get into my next point).
So Scott parroted the concerns people had with Lunatic, threw out doubts, then voted Lunatic when there was really no other option. Also worth noting that after Scott posts #380 he has nothing to say about any other reads besides a post responding to stutters where he concludes SEQ was just under a null read.
D1 Read's and Progression:
Not quite the same as the last point, but related.
I pointed out that Scott didn't really talk about his reads after #380, but before that he posted #307 where he townreads Calix and Rels, and scumreads Jealous and Dane.
The problem here is that Scott gives no real indication of why he thinks they are scum, and these reads basically disappear after #380. In fact both Jealous and Dane later show up in #661 as townreads with no real mention of them in between.
So basically besides what I already talked about with Lunatic, Scott has no read progression at all with his D1 reads.
EoN2 Reads List:
Reviewing Scotts filter I realized that his reads posted in #1076 don't really make sense given his progression.
The biggest thing is the read on Xata, Scott had Xata as a townread in #661 and the only post relating to Xata I could find is Scott reacting to Xata's big "Possible teams" post. Problem is the read shift to scum here seems a bit exaggerated,
Guy is pretty defensive, doesn't like to give up information unless forced (Don't give town a damn thing style) - and feel like he's trying to mislynch Skynx, since I'm either being really pocketed or he's town. He also in his "scum team" and other posts seem to leave me as low hanging fruit.
I'm not gunna dig into this read much, besides note that it's odd that Scott accuses Xata of trying to mislynch Skynx. I will also make note for my next point that based on this reads list Xata is Scott's strongest scum read.
Push on Stutters today:
As I said before this was what first got me reconsidering my read on Scott.
So coming into today Scott and I apparently have very similar reads and Scott asks me,
On September 30 2016 07:02 scott31337 wrote:
A'ight. What do you think TT? Put some pressure on Xata? Wait for stutters to shit out some info? What do you think?
Which seems fine and resonable so I reply that pushing stutters is kinda pointless and ask him to talk to me about Xata. Scott still never responded to this.
Instead Scott "starts to see the light" and makes the push on Stutters. This bothers me not just because scott asked my opinion and this was the opposite of it, but because Stutters is already super-low hanging fruit that is widely scumread. What really makes this push unlikely to come from town imo is just how bad the points Scott brought up where. The comment stutters made about playing with Xata in the past is so NAI I'm amazed Scott even tried to make a post about it (I suspect that post was made to give screenshots and make it look like scott was trying to dig into things). The stuff about the past game where Super vigged Stutters had no real connection to this game since Super townread Stutters and when I spent 5 min glancing at Stutters filter that game I thought it was pretty clear the play we see from Stutters this game is very different from that scumgame.
Basically neither point Scott makes should suggest Stutters is scum, and reviewing the same stuff Scott did I came to the opposite conclusion.
Whats amazing is that even when I say we aren't lynching Stutters and that I want to lynch Scott, here is his response.
On October 01 2016 06:41 scott31337 wrote:
If you all think Stutters is town and do not want to lynch him - it's fine. Him and Xatalos make the most sense to me though.
Seeing TicTock go after me makes me sad though - We've been having in sync thoughts and I guess cuz I had a few beers and things started to make more sense now he thinks I am mafia. But I'm pretty sure he's town. I don't why this has happened (his 180) - I guess cause of my base case on Stutters? It was more that he hasn't done shit - I know the mafia game link was weak.
I'll be back and forth - probably going out to eat though. Going to take it pretty easy today, I have a test tomorrow to take and I want a clear mind for it. Speaking of, I won't be here for deadline.
No shits given if we don't lynch Stutters, no effort to push Xata, zero effort to read Xata better or read anyone else for that matter. Even admits his own point on Stutters was weak.
Misc:
Just a couple things I noticed that bug me.
On September 27 2016 07:04 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2016 23:11 Superbia wrote:
Boy I do hope scum doesn't figure out I'm a PR. Some one that may have been around after this post? Hmmm Could be lurkers too, I shouldn't think too much of it.
Scott has pushed this a couple times as to why Super got killed. Scum didn't buy that post, nobody ever got fooled by that post. Even joking around I'm not sure why Scott would repeat this, but he did.
On September 30 2016 07:03 scott31337 wrote:
Also if there's a cop - remember there's a miller and a godfather, your checks can mean nothing.
Who wants to bet Scott is the goon? Lol.
Seriously though, this struck me as odd. I don't know why would town think to post this, but obv scum worried about getting checked would benefit from reminding any cop that there is some hate on his checks.
I think that about covers it. I've got a bit more to say as I've got a pretty good running theory about who the last scum is as well, but I'll go ahead and save that for now kus it might get confusing.
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On October 01 2016 19:20 Calix wrote:
You're forgetting that the weekend's started. A drop in activity is only to be expected.
I'm popping out in five. I'll look him over when I get back and I'll probably be around for EOD.
Pfft, you people with lives...
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On October 02 2016 01:33 Xatalos wrote:
Hm, is anyone else around?
I hope people will see the light about scott so that I won't have to tell my other reasoning on stutters. It would almost certainly be detrimental if I had to do that.
I'm also totally down for a Xat lynch, this shit is so bad. Why the fuck would you continue to dangle and hold back info like this is beyond me, and especially at this point in the day.
Besides it's not like you've done anything today Xat.
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Ah Scott don't be like that man, it's a game.
I'm changing my mind here anyways, I'm trying too hard to look for the outside chance when we have plenty of mislynches left to do this properly.
Stutters needs to go. I think he actually has a chance to flip town, but he has to go since he has shown no interest in playing the game.
We can deal with Scott vs Xata tomorrow when more people are around and active anyways. Besides Scott's outburst kinda makes me think he's town.
Xata is actually who I should be pushing kus I really really think he is scum at this point, but I'm too lazy at this point to make another case. Also just seems like today is a bad day to do much at EoD with people not really around.
So safety lynch on Stutters. Kus I think we would all sorta hate ourselves if he turns out to be scum and let him live any longer.
##Vote: Stutters
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Also sorta spite for Xata trying to make this "I've got info that proves he's town but I don't wanna say it yet" shit.
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I wonder if Xat is about to claim vig who shot stutters or some such nonsense.
Lets watch!
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EPT
