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Newbie Student Mafia XXII - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 04 2016 22:30 GMT
#936
I just hope to god one of those two aren't town claiming as blue. That would mean we lost right there.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 04 2016 23:09 GMT
#962
Fuck. Hate you KSC. But atleast you made one scum clear to us. And I am also much more sure that MoosyDoosy is scum now, so we have that.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 04 2016 23:14 GMT
#966
Your voting pattern plus your general play is more than suspect. It's getting pretty late here, but tommorow I will publish a post analyzing everything now that we know that Lunatic is mafia.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 04 2016 23:31 GMT
#980
On August 05 2016 08:16 KelsierSC wrote:
Gone through a lot of stuff recently. I just wanted to do things that used to make me happy. Unfortunatley with my work and other circumstances I just can't commit to these games and get the same enjoyment. I'm sorry i upset So many of you. I wish you all the best in your future games which I regret I won't be part of. Thanks for the host shape.


Well, I don't approve with you not participating, but it is sad that you are leaving. I hope you will atleast come back after game is done. Who knows, the result might give you a kick enough to want to play more?
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 04 2016 23:42 GMT
#987
On August 05 2016 08:34 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Not to mention I've probably done more analysis than anyone else this game other than -Celestial- while you just sat on your ass. Good job Rels, really nice leading town like this.


You have done analysis? Because I don't see much than a lot of short posts which never seem to have any analysis at all and is usually just fluff.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 04 2016 23:43 GMT
#989
On August 05 2016 08:37 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 05 2016 08:14 silentwarrior wrote:
Your voting pattern plus your general play is more than suspect. It's getting pretty late here, but tommorow I will publish a post analyzing everything now that we know that Lunatic is mafia.

Which makes this post absolute bullshit when you know something about my play. I already know the arguments you're gonna make about VCA and one thing you would know about me is that I always hold my vote until I know it'll be put to good use. And I've basically done a shit ton more than you this game when you've literally pushed Race Bannon and Stutters both of whom were easy town reads early game. bravo kid.


Ehh, I never pushed Race Bannon, and I just pushed a all but confirmed mafia incase you didn't notice. What have you done?
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 04 2016 23:47 GMT
#992
....That VCA was the stupidest thing ever though. Both me and Grac explained that. But this will have to wait till tommorow, when I can prooperly see lunatics filter and behavior. Now I am way too tired.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 04 2016 23:57 GMT
#996
On August 05 2016 08:50 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Considering i was the first one to come up with a decent case that had a chance of nailing two scum people and had a correct case on btdt which coincidentally happens to be half the pushes here since Lunatic's rambling drifted off my radar and the disastrous first vote on Mderg, tell me what you did?


Only being the first one to push and make a case on a confirmed mafia.














silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 05 2016 00:11 GMT
#998
On August 04 2016 00:33 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I honestly haven't taken any notice of Lunatic other than some rambling from early D1 so I'm going to have to re read him too.


This is basically your only post on him after N1.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 05 2016 00:11 GMT
#999
Ok, I really need to sleep now.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 05 2016 20:50 GMT
#1019
On August 06 2016 05:28 Skynx wrote:
Logical reads don't seem to make sense at this point and people don't move by them anyway. So I'm just gona move by instinct. It tells me btdt has more chance flipping red compared to Luna/scott.

uhh, you do know luna cc a confirmed blue right?
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 05 2016 20:51 GMT
#1020
On August 06 2016 05:50 silentwarrior wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2016 05:28 Skynx wrote:
Logical reads don't seem to make sense at this point and people don't move by them anyway. So I'm just gona move by instinct. It tells me btdt has more chance flipping red compared to Luna/scott.

uhh, you do know luna cc a confirmed blue right?

Which basically makes luna confirmed red
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 05 2016 22:59 GMT
#1022
Ok, so this is basically my big nightpost. I'm pretty sure that rels is gonna get shot, but on the off chance it is me I want to get this all out here. First of all, I am almost certain that both scott and btdt are town. The reason is first that lunatic voted for scott, which basically clears him or atleast gives him a huge town point. On btdt, he voted for Lunatic when the wagon was still early. At that point only 2 people had voted for lunatic. Obv mafia didn't want to kill on of their own if they can help it, which is why I really think he is town. His recent posting and his defense and his determination to go after lunatic should also speak volumes about this. So in short, scott and btdt are town.

Second, I believe the lynch on D4 (D3 lynch will be lunatic no matter what) should be MoosyDoosy. First, he has absolutely nothing in terms of scum hunting. Most of his filter is filled with nothing of value at all. I honestly thought he was joking when he said he was the "sane Moosy". His D2 voting was really suspect as well. His timing was just too good. 30 min before deadline, just when we needed one more vote he shows up and changes vote to someone he town/null read on N1? Also, his whole voting pattern was really stupid, and he still thinks of it as a good thing. The only thing he did was set 2 townies up for mislynch, and if grack hadn't died he would probably have succeded. But tbh, this post isn't about him, if you want more I wrote about Moosy in my N1 post.

Ok, so the main reason I post this is something some of you may not like, and will probably call me tinfoil for saying it. But it needs to be said. First, let me say that I have had suspicoin of this since N1, but have kept silent about it since I was more focused on lunatic at the time and couldn't afford to derail that. I have 3 people in my scumlist in descending order of "scuminess". Lunatic, Moosy and Celestial. The thing that drew me to celestial at first was the fact that he survived N1. It was so strange to be honest. If you compare Stutters and Celestial, he was the obvious person to kill, not stutters. The only reason I can see that stutters was killed was to cast suspicon on the people who were against him. This was primarily me and grack as well I think. The plan obviosly failed when Grac was killed as well, but before that mafia set things up in preparation for stutters death. First, Moosy along with Celestial pulled up that bullshit VCA. Moosy seems like he would go for that sort of thing, but celestial suprised me by actually saying he liked it. What's more, he completely ignored the explanations we had that supported our views, even when it was stutters saying them. Celestial has made the biggest posts with the most analysis, but he barely even bothered to even think about the voting pattern more than a passing "eh, seems alright".


On August 03 2016 07:58 -Celestial- wrote:


Lunaticman - Stuff early on seemed pretty town-based. He was doing the right things and didn't do anything that raised any series red flags. I didn't like the fawning over me too much to be honest. Felt like he was trying to buddy up and pocket me but eh. I feel like the push to lynch Rels whilst he was inactive was a total waste but based on the comment about how Rels dodged five town lynches by being inactive in a previous game its forgivable; and I don't think someone wanting to look to lynch inactive mafia is unreasonable given how horribly inactive this game was for a long time. I wasn't entirely on board with his feelings about RB and scott but I do understand where his opinion is coming from so that's alright. Voting Rels is NAI at that point. Post-flip list is alright (though I'm really never a fan of people including themselves in lists of town aligned people; anyone can do it and it comes across to me as a blatant attempt at a psychological manipulation tactic of "doesn't my name look good next to these townies?") but nothing special. I'm still not liking his feeling on Scott though. The stuff with Grac and Rels is alright; I don't think there absolutely HAS to be mafia between Rels/Grac but there almost certainly is. I disagree with his latest point on Rels, in fact I think the way Rels went about it (i.e. completely full-on) is one of the few saving graces for Rels.
Townlean.


Okay done. Just in time before the deadline.


He also had a strong townlean on lunatic for no apparent reason. He did a filterdive of lunatic same time as me, and mentions some the things we now know makes lunatic scum. But he not only ignores some of those, he even makes excuses for them. Worse, he misses some of the huge red flags in lunatics filter, even though it was probably the shortest filter with the most scummy things. And then, when me and 3 others vote for lunatic he comes in and changes his mind? I'm sorry, I just don't believe that. We know mafia tried to bus Lunatic when it looked like he was dying.

Also, in the same big post as quted above, he has the now confirmed townies (Rels, Grack, Kelsier, Silent) as mafia reads, while the ones that are more questionable much higher up. The only townie he has in town is stutters. But thing is, mafia knew he was gonna die that night, so ofcourse he was gonna be high on the list.

I know most of you all see him as town, and it's no doubt that he has posted the most. But I just want to make sure we consider everything. I might be wrong on celestial, and I certainly won't lynch him before Moosy and Lunatic, but I would definetly consider it.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 05 2016 23:26 GMT
#1028
On August 06 2016 08:18 -Celestial- wrote:
@silent: I would prefer you to lynch me before Moosy if you're going to to go through on that.

Why? Because if Moosy were to flip town (which I'm eh on, but lets run with that) and you continue to push through on the lynch on me then I'd HAVE to defend myself because I think we'd be in MYLO and so town would lose if I flip town (which I will, but I'd say that as either alignment). I absolutely will not have the time or be able to do that to any great extent; I'll be on a bit, but not enough to defend in a MYLO situation. So town is guaranteed to lose under those circumstances. I'd like to avoid that.

In contrast I don't actually have to defend myself if you decide to push me before then because we can afford one more mislynch. I might or might not, I dunno at the moment I'm really tired of this game honestly. Though it'll be a shame to lose my 100% survival rate.


Right now Moosy is looking a lot more scummier than you are. So I'm going to push who I think is most scummy. But nothing is set in stone, D4 is a long way off, as is D5.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 05 2016 23:56 GMT
#1037
On August 06 2016 08:50 -Celestial- wrote:
I am legitimately terrified here of a scenario in which someone gets lynched D4, turns out to be town, and I'm top scum D5. Because we just lose the game straight up.


If I haven't counted wrong, it should be like this if we mislynch D4
D3: 5 town/3 mafia
N3: 5/2
D4: 4/2
N4: 3/2
D5: 2/2

Which means we won't even be in D5 if we lynch moosy D4 and he flips town.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 06 2016 10:40 GMT
#1052
On August 06 2016 17:02 Lunaticman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2016 04:03 -Celestial- wrote:
On August 06 2016 03:40 scott31337 wrote:
Sorry I haven't been into the game much -
I glanced we lynch the vet in a tight vote - best to look there next.


Next we're lynching Lunatic since he effectively claimed scum with his cc leading to the mislynch.

If you don't lynch Lunatic tomorrow you're pretty much claiming scum yourself.


Also Rels already posted his last will here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25917038

Summary: He wants Lunatic then BTDT. Then between Moosy and J Roc.


Personally I'd rather lynch Lunatic then you. But I'll probably have another look at Rels' argument for reading you town in the next few days. Got plenty of time because we got the rest of this night, then all of D3. Then N3 and only then do we have to actually start deciding where to go next (because we're lynching Lunatic tomorrow, full stop).


Is it my fault that KSC played like an idiot. I was doing what I thought was best for town. He even claimed when told not to by the majority of the players. It almost felt like he was trying to get the vigilante to shoot him.


Why did you counterclaim a blue though if you are town. That's the stupidest thing you can do, I even said so that day.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 06 2016 10:41 GMT
#1053
On August 06 2016 19:40 silentwarrior wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2016 17:02 Lunaticman wrote:
On August 06 2016 04:03 -Celestial- wrote:
On August 06 2016 03:40 scott31337 wrote:
Sorry I haven't been into the game much -
I glanced we lynch the vet in a tight vote - best to look there next.


Next we're lynching Lunatic since he effectively claimed scum with his cc leading to the mislynch.

If you don't lynch Lunatic tomorrow you're pretty much claiming scum yourself.


Also Rels already posted his last will here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25917038

Summary: He wants Lunatic then BTDT. Then between Moosy and J Roc.


Personally I'd rather lynch Lunatic then you. But I'll probably have another look at Rels' argument for reading you town in the next few days. Got plenty of time because we got the rest of this night, then all of D3. Then N3 and only then do we have to actually start deciding where to go next (because we're lynching Lunatic tomorrow, full stop).


Is it my fault that KSC played like an idiot. I was doing what I thought was best for town. He even claimed when told not to by the majority of the players. It almost felt like he was trying to get the vigilante to shoot him.



Why did you counterclaim a blue though if you are town. That's the stupidest thing you can do, I even said so that day.


Not that I believe for one second that you are town.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 07 2016 15:53 GMT
#1067
Guys, you should start voting for lunatic.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 07 2016 21:55 GMT
#1074
VOTE PEOPLE!!! We can't even afford to lose one townie to modkill.
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 07 2016 23:24 GMT
#1082
Haha, what did I say. Ok, come on guys, that gave us a fighting chance. We can definetly still win this. and we can even afford mislynches now. It is really late, but now we have a lot more to work with by looking at moosy and lunatics filters and seeing if we can't find that last scum.
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