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Jealous
10336 Posts
On July 01 2016 14:32 Skynx wrote: Arantis is an interesting kill but I doubt it is based on suspicion. He was nk'd more so because he's prolly never getting lynched this game. Damdred what do you think about this hypothesis? | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
On July 01 2016 18:11 Superbia wrote: Actually jean can never live to final 3 because he'd win if he's mafia. Agreed. | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
Because of math. | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
Even if GB is still in the game and he pardons either himself or whoever the other townie is, Jean will just NK the other townie, GG. Without Jean being in the final 3, there is at least one more Day for the three remaining players to figure out who is scum. With Jean being in the final 3, even if he is not scum, we place all of our faith in his decision. I trust two heads over one, in the sense that the two remaining townies would know that each of their votes is as crucial to winning the game as the other's. However, this does not mean I support lynching Jean now or at any point prior to this situation. When there are only Scratch that. We have 8 players remaining at the start of this Day cycle. This means that (if we assume there is no pardon): After D3 = 7 people After N3 = 6 people After D4 = 5 people '' N4 = 4 people '' D5 = 3 people '' N5 = 2 people, gg This means there will never be a Day cycle with 3 people, or an odd number of people (again, if we assume no pardon). If we get to this point of 4 people (D5) and we lynch Jean and he flips town, then town loses. At D5 people can still lynch Jean with a 3-2 majority, but this is also risky because if Jean is town and votes a mislynch, scum can shenanie at the last moment and swing the 3-2 in the other direction and win that way. Thus, if we don't lynch scum in D3 or D4, town will likely lose. Therefore, Jean must die in D4 in order to give town another day to vote. | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
Will have to analyze this when I have more time tomorrow. | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
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Jealous
10336 Posts
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Jealous
10336 Posts
On July 01 2016 19:32 Jealous wrote: Bah, scum wouldn't even need to shenanie in D5, they would just have to vote for Jean just like the other two players remaining and that'd be a wrap if Jean was town. Yea, damn, I didn't put enough time into the above post. I thought it would be pretty simple to math it out but it's mad complicated. Even if we forget PRs for a moment, there are the following scenarios: 1. Jean is scum, and pardon has been used. 2. Jean is scum, and pardon has not been used. 3. Jean is not scum, and pardon has been used. 4. Jean is not scum, and pardon has not been used. Each requires their own mathematical breakdown. Agh. | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote: It's not that difficult. 1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched. 2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either. | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
On July 01 2016 20:28 Jean Valjean wrote: This is a dumb discussion and you should reconsider if you actually think this. Essentially you're telling the scum "hey, if you get a mislynch today, you'll get a free extra one tomorrow!" We're not going to default lynch, we're going to keep lynching the most scummy people until the game ends. True, especially the last bit. However, being short-sighted has already cost us. I don't think it's bad practice to map all the possible roads this game can take. To what benefit? Can you elaborate? The only thing I can think of is to potentially force a vet to claim because he will think he has been shot? | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
Losing Chezinu because of what was effectively a policy lynch. | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
On July 01 2016 22:42 Jean Valjean wrote: See I disagree. I don't think it was a policy lynch. At the time I had more reason to believe he's scum than anyone else in the game. On the other hand, as admitted back on day 1, I have a particular weak spot in reading trolls, so perhaps people who know how to understand and figure out trolls considered it a policy lynch. Where do you stand today? Damdred has been playing pretty well ever since I raised the case against him. It's causing me to doubt my initial conviction. As I haven't had any detailed cases built for anyone else, I will have to do some filter digging when I get the chance, but I am moving today so I don't think I'll have that time for quite a while. | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
On July 02 2016 00:00 GlowingBear wrote: Jealous, what's your read on JVJ? Despite my initial misgivings, I have been leaning town on him for a while. I will have to look through his filter to see if that should change. | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
On July 02 2016 03:17 GlowingBear wrote: I'd love if you did it. I'm really interested. I will. As I said though, I'm moving today so I might only be able to start in 12 hours. To-do list: TT, Damdred re-hash, JVJ. | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
On July 02 2016 03:58 Superbia wrote: GB does not need to claim BG per say. The better play is to claim one (or two) people who are definitely not the bodyguard. That way if GB die we have Jean and that person as confirmed town. I wanted to say this later but w/e. This is really good. I like this. | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
On July 02 2016 05:57 GlowingBear wrote: This votecount is more informational than the final votecount Elaborate please? | ||
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Jealous
10336 Posts
On July 02 2016 10:31 GlowingBear wrote: I'm so sad it isn't Damdred Bittersweet victory Same here. GG, fam. | ||
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