Newbie Student Mafia XX

On April 05 2016 09:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Through objective analysis I've deduced that Tumblewood, Spikasaur and Race Bannon are our 3 scum players. You may ask me why in the morning.

On April 05 2016 12:19 GlowingBear wrote:


There is no controversy in his post but just the color switch. I don't see a clear intention to gather reactions

On April 05 2016 12:25 GlowingBear wrote:
What's your opinion on his opening, Tumblewood?

On April 06 2016 13:21 DoYouHas wrote:
I think TW is likely scum.

His "damn, caught me" comment to Artanis' list caught my eye. Mafia are more likely to play off pressure (even fake pressure) as a joke instead of flatly denying.


This post doesn't do anything. It's made to look like it does something but it argues itself into nothing. Step 1: let's analyze Art's play. Step 2: GB's vote was a waste and we are reading into nothing.

##Vote: Tumblewood

This also makes me suspicious of Art, but that is unflipped association for now.

-
@Damdred, I'm usually riding the same mental groove as you by now. I'm hoping you just aren't trying yet, because I disagree with you on LS, who seems pretty townie to me.
-
@The rest of you. Get talking. We can do better than the standard heavy activity right before deadline and a lame 47 other hours. If I end up being the activity police here we are in trouble.

On April 06 2016 13:56 CHodge wrote:

This is basically a summary for why anyone could think Kuragawi42 is town... 4 posts with nothing interesting of note.

On April 06 2016 17:05 boxerfred wrote:
Would lynch Damdred or Tumblewood thus far. Damdred basically for not being as good as town Damdred is normally, Tumblewood because he's switching between rational arguments, "you're bad/wrong" and this uncommiting wishywashyness.

##vote Tumblewood

Or, any lurker.

On April 07 2016 03:20 Race Bannon wrote:
I'm assuming mafia is a game where skill matters and you get better the more you play so if the majority is town and they converge and agree on someone being scummy the chance of being on to something is higher but even if notmit provides data for analysis.

On April 07 2016 04:48 Artanis[Xp] wrote:

Do you believe RB believed what he said?

On April 07 2016 05:44 Fidei86 wrote:
I'm totally town btw. And you know I'm town because if I was mafia I would totally have made some big long entrance with thoughts and things.

On April 06 2016 18:30 boxerfred wrote:
I think I like CHodge. Attacks pretty much everyone, points out inactives, ends up with a push on one person. That should not be scum, right?

On April 07 2016 06:01 Fidei86 wrote:

Eh. That was more a reference that only people I've played with before would get.

So far I'm pretty sure that GB and LS are town. I think CHodge and TW are town. I think boxerfred is null lean mafia. I think GOssemer is mafia.

I really don't have time to read the thread fully before the deadline, I have been roped into a dota game. But those are my reads. I'll check in the thread in between deaths.

On April 07 2016 06:42 LightningStrike wrote:

We can't talk about ongoing games.

On April 07 2016 07:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:

Basically for me it's:
-Pretend to be playing along with my discussion starter
-Does fuck all after
-Comes back to the thread with reads, never did anything with said discussion starter
-Calls boxerfred scum citing that he usually plays as scum and doesn't as town when he hasn't really done much at all yet. Also he hasn't dropped the Damdred read at all unlike what GB said.

Basically he hasn't followed up on what he said he was doing and his read on BF seems made up.

On April 07 2016 07:47 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Okay I'm back.
Who's up for shenannies?

On April 07 2016 23:42 Fidei86 wrote:

Hey!
Rather than prodding a semi-inactive, why not give your thoughts on the WOTs I just posted. I call you out for being Mafia. I'd expect you to have at least something to say on it!

On April 07 2016 22:09 Fidei86 wrote:
Okay, it took my whole lunch break, but I have read through the thread. I'll post my entire notes at the bottom, as I don't have time to fully post before I have to start working again.

The short is that I'm pretty sure Tumbleweed and Gossemerr are mafia.

MAFIA

Gossemerr's posts are pretty mediocre. I hate his read on Race at #287 and his last post at #390 was classic "let's see what happens". As far as I can see, he hasn't done anything useful.

Tumbleweed's entire filter can be summarised as follows: "this person might be mafia, but I'm not sure...". This is classic mafia play. It's so tentative, it's like me every time I try and kiss a girl on a third date.

My guess for third mafia is Artanis. I agree with everything Damdred said about Artanis being vocal and yet pointless at the same time. HOWEVER, I'm less sure on this because I'm not sure I see the value in a mafia Artanis leading a shennany on to me so late.

NULL BECAUSE TERRIBLE - WOULD LYNCH

2) Kuragari42
3) Spikasaur

TOWN PILE

Race Bannon is town. Ride or die. His post at #208 was spot on viz boxer. His comment at #265 on Artanis was spot on. He's been active and I've agreed with most of what he's said.

DYH is town. He pressured newbies to post early [#180], and I loved his early read on Tumblewood.

I think CHODGE is probably also town as well.

I'm leaning town on Damdred and GB, but I'm much more certain about Damdred than GB. GB has pretty much just shit-posted / over-thought things. But a lot of people have been pushing him. Damdred mod-confirmed me (accurately!) plus I feel the townie vibes generally.

LIGHTNING STRIKE PILE

At this point I have demonstrated that I can't even read LS when I'm scum. He and I speak totally different mafia languages. I would definitely vote to lynch him, but I say that every game and I always think I'm right on it.

====================================================

The Newblood
1) Race Bannon
#208 early town read on boxer from a newbie, when lots of other people posting, this guy is 100% town
#265 comments on Artanis' activity *pops champagne cork*
#294 this is so close to the bone, it has to be townie

2) Kuragari42
Is this guy playing?
#398 doesn't like lynches

3) Spikasaur
#204-#205 "hello"
#214 All filler no killer.
#390 switches to me for literally zero reason

4) Gossemerr
#287 read on Race Bannon. Hmmmm. reasoning is okay but something not quite right about it.
#350 okay prevarication read
#433 this is garbage "let's see what happens"

5) Fidei86 hehe

6) DoYouHas
I like him pressuring Newbies to post. [#180]
I like his read on Tumblewood (which I apparently missed in my first read through)

The Slightly old Blood

7) LightningStrike
#211 Lots of pressuring.
#264 town on CHodge, and I think this is townie

8) Artanis[xp]
This guy is mafia with Tumblewood [#260]
And his early vote on GB is garbage.
Starts shennanies on me. Why? I'm confused.

9) Damdred
#284 I think this is town Damdred. Also I think he switched off me because he knew my obvious town tells.
#298 pings artanis, likes racer, pings GB. Town.

10) boxerfred
RIP

11) CHodge
#217-#219 wtf. LS and RaceBannon lynches? And Tumblewood?
#242 this town read on Goss is garbage but also towny.
Tons of reads early.
#251 This scum read on GB makes a ton of sense.

12) Tumblewood
#193 Gathering reactions a good thing?
#197 AHHHHH over analysis, leading into a dead-end of nothingness without conclusions.
#253 Town points to CH for reads, but no reads himself
#291 more null reads *yawn*
#349 okay town points for this not being sure, reads more genuine

13) GlowingBear
#313 anyone scum reading BF gets mafia points, but I think this is more just GB overthinking things.

On April 05 2016 22:13 Race Bannon wrote:
Leaning town on boxer and GlowingBear for their confident opening.

On April 07 2016 10:55 Gossemerr wrote:
OK so that last minute flip fest was interesting. Going to read and post my thoughts in a bit. I think we need to look at who flipped and why.

On April 08 2016 02:55 Gossemerr wrote:
Also Fiedei: third date bro? Step it up earlier haha.

On April 08 2016 03:18 Gossemerr wrote:
Hey Tumble why do you have such a strong read on Fidei? - I agree that he is not cleared, but it seems like you are reading him strongly scum through only disagreeing with his analysis?

On April 08 2016 13:37 GlowingBear wrote:
Ok I've read almost everything, kinda got bored at the last 3 pages.

Artanis how does it feel to be mafia?

On April 09 2016 05:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:

That's a whole lotta associating going on around here. There's only a few points that aren't. Him not switching his vote when shenannies were going on (which also only matters if there's a scum in there, or scum can do anything so I'm not sure why you're using that as a point against him when you believe they're town). His defense on me whilst not townreading me is weird though but I didn't really think it was a defense, more of an explanation. Only point you really have going against TW is that he never switched to Fidei when that was his top scumread.

TW, why didn't you switch to Fidei when shenannies were happening?

On April 10 2016 03:39 Gossemerr wrote:
God damn i love your post Art. RB still won't answer me why he is tunneling LS so fucking hard without considering GB.

WTF is this RB? Capitalization means what exactly?


@ Fidei

I don't want to lynch a lurker over a probable mafia. We learn absoultely nothing from a lurker lynch that nobody has even been talking about / has any vested interest in. For being "town firmed" as you and others think you are not being pro-town in my mind with this. It just causes more confusion for a town that is trying to get unified behind an either Art or GB lynch today.

Finally, lol:


I like the cases and my own read @ GB = mafia.

##Vote GlowingBear

On April 10 2016 07:33 Damdred wrote:
Can we lunch tw first before gb though?

On April 11 2016 05:06 Gossemerr wrote:



What are your thoughts on the random RB late vote on Art?

On April 13 2016 06:49 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Tumblewood, get in here and engage with me. Why do you believe I'm mafia over Gosse?
If you vote wrong and you're town the game is over since mafia can just pile onto me at the end.

On April 14 2016 10:53 Kuragari42 wrote:
I'm here.

On April 14 2016 14:12 Kuragari42 wrote:


Race obviously. I can't make a better case than I'm town and therefore he's scum. I've read his filter maybe a dozen times and I just don't see a case against him. I beg the other townies to read race and find a good scum case for him or else I'm going to be mislynched and we're gonna lose.