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I am not even sure that Palmar is town. I just don't like the feel this vote has. Has there really been push back though? Ritoky faintly threw out the idea of a potential Koshi lynch, but that hasn't gone anywhere. Many people have brought up Zyrre as very suspicious and supremely shallow compared to some town games (albeit from a while ago), yet I was the only person to have voted on him until Kush switched recently.
To be clear, I don't think the Palmar vote is the worst thing in the world, but 8 votes with no counter wagon indicates to me that either
1) He's town and mafia are pushing/seconding the narrative
2) He's mafia and his mafia team is bussing him D1 by either voting for him, or not really starting any other wagon... which seems very counterproductive as mafia. You aren't gonna get that much town cred if 10 people vote for him and he flips town, and you'll look sus if you just park your vote and give no input.
On the other hand, I'm not sure that Zyrre has had one original thought all game. His entrance reads post seems super newbie mafia who skim thread, copy thread sentiment and add a few anecdotes here and there. Then he jumps on the Palmar train for meh reasoning that other people have already trotted out
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i'm fine with lynching palmar d2 if he keeps playing like this
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I'm going to eat quick but i probably won't be back before deadline. I'm relatively confident Zyrre is the way to go
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@disformation
Uh, I didn't push the Zyrre wagon at all? It was 8 votes Palmar to 1 vote Zyrre when I expressed my concern with how easy Palmar was getting lynched and why I was concerned. I was rather vocal about Zyrre and asked people uncomfortable with lynching Palmar D1 to come to my wagon. Not sure what you mean by this...
I did flesh out my reasoning for being most confident in Zyrre which you can read in my filter. You might not consider them good reasons, but I had been suspicious of Zyrre throughout D1, plus people like Rels, who I have town read drew similar conclusions.
You're going to have to do better if you want to suggest this vote gives me a good chance of being scum. I am more curious about who jumped on the Zyrre wagon, and when.
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I wasn't "deflecting" off of Palmar, but I had reservations with the D1 VC for reasons I already stated; I thought Zyrre was more likely to be scum and risk/reward favored Palmar. Plus Zyrre was one of the few people likely to be scum that other people would consider voting for.
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wouldn't be the worst vigi shot in the world
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Palmar flipping scum would certainly make this game a lot easier, basically cut down suspect lists by half. Oh how juicy
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I think JAT + Damdred are pretty good town kills, so if there was a vigi shot on ritoky... why ritoky over Chez/Moosy/Onegu/Kush?
I thought ritoky had actually made some decent town posts so far. I especially thought his post re VA vs. NM seemed constructed and i'm going to re-read their filters
On February 05 2016 08:22 ritoky wrote:
plus their fighting just doesn't feel like town v town. it's not super tunnely, it's not shitfighting, it's not full of conviction...it just lacks that edge of someone who is married to a terrible read fighting with someone for a clearly dogshit reason.
i don't get it
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So Mafia 2 KP + General Hux assassinate for 3 KP is what you think happened?
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oh oops, i meant to say...
I thought he made a good point about how ritoky felt that the VA vs. NM argument was constructed, not that I felt that ritoky's argument was fake.
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god damn it. he = ritoky. my grammar is now working right now.
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On February 07 2016 08:25 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2016 08:24 darthfoley wrote:
oh oops, i meant to say...
I thought he made a good point about how ritoky felt that the VA vs. NM argument was constructed, not that I felt that ritoky's argument was fake. Okay, so do you take anything further from this?
My first thought, if it was mafia 2kp + Hux assassinate: why now?
There are a few reasons that i've considered-- i'm sure it's a combo of them. I think the obvious answer is to maximize the amount of guaranteed damage inflicted on N1. Mafia gets guaranteed 3kp N1 with Hux, but I think there could've definitely been strategy for using Hux later, even if it's 2kp N1, 1kp + Hux N2, N3 etc. Using Hux later could've implied a vigi shot/vigi fake claim, it could've indirectly framed someone, or just gotten the town to forget about the assassinate possibility.
Using Hux N1, however, has a few benefits. The 3 kp has forced town to already start thinking about end game scenarios:
how many mislynches town has, how blue roles will be affected going forward, etc. Basically the 3KP puts town on the defensive and much more passive in its play, because every mislynch digs town a deeper and deeper grave. I think a more hesitant town only benefits mafia. Every wagon will be over scrutinized, and people will get cold feed and wishy washy on reads.
Using Hux N1 can also make sure that whoever was making the most progress D1 is donezo, and town doesn't really have any idea who was the person on the right track. It basically makes town analyze 3 dead filters, instead of 2 down the road, making the whole situation more ambiguous.
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On February 07 2016 08:30 disformation wrote:
Also now I am a bit paniky. Cause the VCA clearly indicates that scum kinda shot ppl that were willing to vote palmar. but that is a huge wifom argument.
JAT and Damdred voted for Palmar. If that's the case, why does ritoky die? Bluehunting good townies x2?
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it's annoying how this game dies past 7pm. damn europeans!
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oh right I'm silly. Misread the VC. I rescind my question.
Is it really as simple as
Palmar: kill these 3 good players who've been voting for me/on my ass. Is Palmar known for some Italian style vengeance? I just read ritoky's filter for Palmar mentions, and although he voted Palmar, he got on the wagon relatively late and did not seem particularly hardcore for it.
Meh this all seems too clean. Maybe it is
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I remember reading that someone has the best read on Palmar. I think it was either marv or JAT. I can't find the quote though
IIRC and it's marv, wouldn't the marv kill make more sense from mafia!Palmar, especially because marv ended up voting Zyrre EoD because it was the higher % play?
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On February 07 2016 09:15 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2016 09:09 darthfoley wrote:
I remember reading that someone has the best read on Palmar. I think it was either marv or JAT. I can't find the quote though
IIRC and it's marv, wouldn't the marv kill make more sense from mafia!Palmar, especially because marv ended up voting Zyrre EoD because it was the higher % play? unless you are implying marv is mafia here I don't really understand what you are getting at. Are you rambling or is there something to this
I think it was rather clear what I'm getting at. People have said that 3 people killed made sense from mafia!Palmar pov. My point is that marv would make more sense than ritoky, for example, if those were the reasons.
With 4 mafia and so much heat already on Palmar, I doubt the NKs would simply revolve around scum!Palmar targets because he's likely to get lynched D2, and the other 3 need to start preparing for post scum!Palmar/town!Palmar lynch. I think this is supported by the Hux shot
I find the ritoky and damdred kills particularly odd because ritoky foreshadowed low activity (relatively ez to drive a mislynch on inactive good player) and damdred said stuff like
On February 06 2016 07:49 Damdred wrote:
It's a bit of a lot of people have been towny with very few scummy atm to me
Wouldn't mafia want to keep a guy who's townreading every in the game? Meh
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I thought people have already said that disformation?
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EPT
