Newbie Student Mafia XIX

PepperMintTea
Never played forum, but has played in real-life / online, so at least somewhat experienced.
Points out a lot of flaws in people's arguments, times that they've said things that are weak / make little sense. Constantly asking for more information, where people got certain ideas, and asks hard-hitting questions. PMT is one of my top town reads, either that or very good mafia, and I'm being taken for a ride, but based on their lack of forum experience, I'd say PMT is just good town.


Tumbleweed
looks like this is his first game, or one of his first, went very pro-active early, maybe a bit over-aggressive on the scum calls, but started making more town reads later on. I don't know, comes off as bad town trying too hard, or bad mafia to me, i'm not experienced enough to tell the difference. If I had to give a solid answer, I'd say he's bad town who changed his mind a bit too often in an attempt to get reactions out of people, falling over himself trying to avoid being mis-lynched.

JesusIncarnate
Very few posts (I know, he still has more than I do)
Posts he has made haven't been very constructive at all. He's coming off as extremely arrogant, enough so that it's got to be some sort of act, because there's no way someone's going to say "I am a Mafia Grandmaster", "speak to me with respect, I deserve it, i am above you" unless they're putting it on, and I mean, look at that name.
Only constructive information he's given to town is calling out Eden for supposedly falling for a simple strat.
My read is that jesus is an unhelpful town, who has annoying posts to read- 'sick meme' 'residentsleeper'
Jesus, why are you putting such a big target on your back for someone to attack you? what do you gain?

Alur
Seems like good town to me. He's intent on solving the game, asks questions, answers questions asked of him, Isn't going crazy trying to turn people on one another, or attacking anyone too hard.
He seems to be frustrated at my lack of posting, understandable, I would be too. Sorry about that.
I like Alurs posts, He's towney, he's not obnoxious, he doesn't seem like he's putting on any sort of act. He also posted "Gonna play some dota or cs to relax". You KNOW someone's taking the game seriously when they swap to dota of all games to chill out.

Kuragari
Reationary to other people's posts, hasn't posted much in the way of solving the game, just spoke to other players.
He did say he wouldn't go into reads until later in the first day, but for someone with quite a few posts, not much has been said.
Not enough information on the guy to make a proper judgement. Slightly scummy, not enough to vote on.

darthfoley
Very town, posted a lot of constructive things, good attitude. I'm on a phone so it's hard to quote everything I want to touch on, but my number 1 town spot goes to this guy. He posts a lot and is vocal about his reads, and backs them up with other posts. I think he'll be useful to town later on, and if we have a doctor, you should consider putting this guy on your save list.

nooniansoong
My read is good-town, asks some good questions, spots inconsistencies, doesn't hop on other people's scum reads and back them up, tries to dissect them and point out any flaws, good for getting more information.

Trfel
Scum read, has a whole lot of posts just asking questions without contributing any information, a whole lot of words with not much to say.
Jumped on the voting for tumbleweed bandwagon simply because it's embarrassing the newbies caught tumble, and not Trfel himself? (Am I missing something here?)
My biggest reason for thinking Trfel is scum is #607 where he says he's trying very hard not to direct the thread, then proceeds to direct the hell out of the thread dissecting tumbleweed's filter, this results in tumbleweed being the current lynch target.
Maybe this is a sick town play and we're going to get rid of mafia on the first night, but I think, judging from his experience, Trfel is an experienced mafia player, and is scum trying to get a townie lynched on day 1.

from here on out my posts are going to be shorter, I'm getting a headache going over everything, this is my own fault for being so inactive at the start, there's so much content to wrap my head around.

Onegu
Seems scummy, lots of short very defensive answers, "Big post coming from me" was actually just a bunch of short reactions to other people's posts.
that being said, I disagree with several of his reads, especially Tea being mafia. that being said I do agree with his Trfel read.
I don't think he's scum enough to vote, but definitely enough to keep my eye on.

_MexicanAlien
Comes off as a noob at the start. I don't think he's scum, but he's not being very helpful to town, either. I disagree with his reads.

Eden
Seems town, nice long posts, decent contribution

Shapelog
Heck, man you've posted so much. Chill out a bit, think before you post. A lot of your posts are off-topic and it's not too helpful. I'm reading you as town for now but I'm going to keep a close eye on you from now on.

we are allowed to abstain from voting, right?

Alur's feel for Kuragari is that his play shows mafia indicators. Not exactly reason for voting.


Alur has been 'gone' after "switching to dota". He was gone for less than 15 minutes, and the first thing he does is vote on Kura? What seems to prompt this vote was a VC by LoneMeow. I think Alur was simply trying to stop the bandwagon on Onegu (4 votes at the time).

This looks to be a simple sheep, as darthfoley has agreed with all of Alur's scum read reasons. I suspect darthfoley was a little bit irritated at Kura's dumb read on him.

To clarify, I'm not saying never to use nk analysis and association. I'm saying that if you do so, do it very carefully, because it's so so easy to get incorrect conclusions. You need to consider every possibility, and that a possibility can exist, however unlikely, that points to the wrong thing and just makes your conclusions completely wrong. Including simply "mafia didn't think of this", even if it was the correct thing.

I'm more than willing to discuss, but I don't feel like your generalized statements of what is mafia indicative were correct for why I explained.

Eden decided(with his town reads), that the Mafia must come from PepperMintTea, nooniansoong, and Tumblewood. {post #1691}
He went on to scum read Tumblewood and nooniansoong.

Eden saw that
•Ikidomari was flip floppy on Tumblewood
•Ikidomari thought Trfel was for sure Mafia
•Ikidomari attacked Trfel for Trfel's tumblewood read

He used this information to associate Ikidomari with Tumblewood.

Eden does the same thing with nooniansoong, using the weirdness of noon's attack on Trfel, his town read on Eden, and his being on IKidomari's null/watch list.

I actually this this is good case. Due to my association read of Eden1892 (which was completely wrong), I thought by more association that Trfel was scum. But definitely less likely now.

If reason #1,
I can believe a Tumble wood and nooniansoong scumteam.

Let's think of the people who would look less suspicious if Eden1892 were to die and flip town.

This would include:
• Eden's town reads
•People who had a lot of interaction with Eden (especially near the end)

The people who fit best into those categories are:
_MexicanAlien
Trfel
darthfoley

MexicanAlien.
Eden1892 flying off the handle at me (loads of useless talk) but near the end giving me a 'basically confirmed town' would really help me as scum.

Trfel.
This guy seems to have been really buddying Eden a lot, especially for having scum read Eden. He mostly stayed in the background early in the game without making many connections, but then came out and agreed with almost everything Eden says. Also, Eden was town reading Trfel for a good amount of time, so this could leave Trfel with still a clear name.

darthfoley.
He's vigilante. 'Nuff said.

I feel much less confident in this reason than in #1, mostly because of less powerful logic.

If reason #2, Trfel is Mafia.
I don't have any idea as to who his scummate would be, too tired at this point.