Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 2

On January 27 2016 07:23 _MexicanAlien wrote:
Yes why talk about blue roles? This could possibly give the scum information. This may or may not help them but we shouldn't unwittingly give them any more

On January 27 2016 07:33 Shapelog wrote:
Omg I just realize that Onegu has been reading my posts <3

On January 19 2016 04:27 Onegu wrote:
Ok Onegu serious face. 15 page filter this game.

/in

On January 27 2016 07:34 _MexicanAlien wrote:
Is anyone else here seeing a pattern?

On January 27 2016 07:37 Shapelog wrote:

I do something/suggest something dumb,
Post something un relating
Comment on someone elses post and do something dumb again,
and then post something unrelating?

On January 27 2016 07:40 Shapelog wrote:

Doesn't that make you scum since you want to control the thread and not allow the discussion to develop?
Or is that a Oneguy try hard thing?

On January 27 2016 10:58 Shapelog wrote:
Yo USP is the bomb. Got me my motherboard a day early :D

I've read the TR on me. I think it is the worse possible town read on me period.
Let me explain.

He/she calls my town lean on Mexican Alien farfetch. I town lean that came from:


There is no way that a mafia make the first post and then makes the second. He could of easily pushed a mafia agenda right here. Hell he could of taken Thread control here forcing townies to listen to a strategy that really doesn't have any merit to it (too early in the game IMO).
Also the "we need infomation" also seems townie to me (though i will admit it can defiantly be NAI).

Tell me what is the purpose of saying this as mafia? Like at all why would he want the blue talk to end? Sure, maybe he wanted cred for it. But this is a very pro-townie statement, In fact, mafia benefits NONE from it.

This shows he is reading the thread and is trying to actively solve the game. Patterns are usally the first thing the brain notices when Analyzing things.

So My town read on Mexican is good. The fact he is solving the game should be a clear indication.
But here is why you don't town read him:

Ok, First off I could see where you come from. Maybe (Just maybe) you think he is trying to draw attention to me, and possibly forcing a mislynch on me.
Ok lets ponder this:
Sure, i'll admit that I am prob. the best mislynch target for mafia at this point. I mean god, look at my posts. A lot of things that can be used for a case. And sure, while I did tried to help town, i ended up failing epicly. Also who would trust me? honestly who?
But the thing is, the above post from him doesn't push me. Sure, it could be taken as that. But that is more of a playstyle question then "I think this guy could be scum b/c of X" statement.
And lets also ponder the fact you can be mafia.
You come into the thread "lolly lolly, I am peppermint" read the posts and you get to the end. Who stands out? Prob. me and mexcian. You see that everyone is sus. of me. I can totaly see you town reading me (since you know I am town b/c your mafia) so when i get lynch (or if i get lynched) you get cred for it. You also benift if mexican gets killed because he is a strong player.
So no matter what you win either way.

Finally, lets discus your town read on me:
Initial: "hes overexcited and nervous"

So you drop the overexcited part? Ok, I will admit, I do have anxintry disorder. But, I have not felt nervous or overexcited about this at all. sure, i am happy that i am playing, but i am not like OMG YES YES YES.

What also is funny is that you decide is that my town lean was weak, BUT your town read was not. I mean at least mine I could prove and it made sense. All yours is on is tone, period.

Honestlly, Right now, you have a good chance of being scum.
##VoteepperMintTea

On January 27 2016 07:23 Onegu wrote:



Pee Joke

On January 27 2016 07:48 _MexicanAlien wrote:
So first shapelog suggests talking about blue roles, then he lists the reason for each blue role to not need help.
Very good reasons.

On January 27 2016 08:38 nooniansoong wrote:


This seems contradictory. Nervous people don't spout whatever comes into their head.

On January 27 2016 08:41 PepperMintTea wrote:


Many people talk too much or over explain to counter feeling nervous or anxious. It is a fairly common issue.

On January 27 2016 08:45 PepperMintTea wrote:


I have played mafia before; online versions and in real life.

On January 27 2016 08:49 Alur wrote:
Hi boys!

First mafia game anywhere ever for me, should be fun. Got interested from watching the Dota 2 community mafia streams. Also casually ghosted a few of the recent games on TL.

My observations as of right now:

1. Shapelog is the most scummy player to me.

Reason A: Announcing you have some sort of tell on a player(noon), before he has even posted seems like a really bad idea. If hes mafia he can now attempt to replicate his his VT play from "the last two games", and even if he doesn't do "the tell" he'll be more prepared to defend himself from Shapelog.

Reason B: He was the first to bring up the possible setups. Before the game started I considered if there would be any merit for town to discuss setups on D1, and I concluded that talking about it before anyone had claimed anything would be probably be useless. Bringing up useless stuff doesn't further the town agenda.

Although the fact that he's done all this so fast is a little confusing.

2. Slight townread on _MexicanAlien.
He seems to have a genuine interest in solving the game. Didn't know that mafia knows the setup (could be WIFOM I guess, but whatevs).

3. Slight mafiaread on Darthfoley
I would've expected him to be more excited about rolling town considering his previous game. His posting also feels a little casual and uninvested at times:



Going forward:

Talk about other players.



Not sure what you're referring to, very curious to hear what you've noticed.

On January 27 2016 09:17 nooniansoong wrote:



but don't these points contradict each other?
(a) he's nervous, which makes him (b) talk a lot of nonsense.
(b) talking a lot of nonsense makes him (c)townie.
So then by the transitive relation, a=c, him being nervous makes him townie.

Why would townies be nervous?

On January 27 2016 09:24 Alur wrote:
Oh and a question for PepperMinTea: You went out of your way to defend Shapelog, and you were somewhat spooked by MexicanAliens accusations towards Shapelog for vague reasons - but you townread him because "mafia aren't spooky this fast". You also townread Onegu.

Do you have any scumreads?

I'm a little sad that I didn't ask this question before he left. Ended up spending quite a bit of time on my entrypost.

On January 27 2016 09:37 nooniansoong wrote:
Another point against pepperminttea: she was in the thread for a very short chunk of time. She did not linger before or after her post. This behavior can be caused by fear of exposing yourself too much.

On January 27 2016 11:30 Tumblewood wrote:
Read over the thread, and these are my reads so far:

Town: (none yet)
Leaning Town: Alur, Trfel
Null: PepperMintTea, nooniansong, Onegu
Leaning Scum: darthfoley, _MexicanAlien
Scum: Shapelog

My reasoning on Shapelog:

Shapelog has acted generally like a newbie scum player all game. He started the game off with about five jokes and no content. Given that this is day 1, that's not too important. I'm not sure how to feel on the weird read toward nooniansong, because it doesn't necessarily feel scummy or townie, just poorly informed. But the posts that really strike me are:

and

In both of them, he mentions something about not being scum. Why would a townie ever do that? Why would anyone ever do that? "Unless your scum team kills me," and, "Yet to roll mafia sadly," are things normal townies don't just drop. It just screams to me, "Oh boy, what a shame I'm not mafia!" Also, "I am always Sus. on my D1's" doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but I haven't played with Shapelog before.

On January 27 2016 12:13 Tumblewood wrote:


I remember some slight town lean posts and nothing scummy, so that was enough to put him up there in my memory. Looking through his filter, though, there's not much to put him on one side or the other. If I had to redo that list, I'd swap Onegu and Trfel.

On January 27 2016 12:28 Trfel wrote:
Questions

@Alur:

How confident are you in Shapelog being mafia? Also, can you explain specifically what you didn't like/understand about PepperMintTea's post? Because I thought I understood it pretty well.

@Nooniansoong:
Which point are you referring to, and to what extent do you agree with it?

@Onegu:
What do you think about Shapelog's alignment, and why?

On January 27 2016 12:54 Trfel wrote:
Tumblewood, why do you feel that Onegu is towny?

On January 27 2016 12:58 Kuragari42 wrote:


As I was reading darthfoley's posts in question, I thought to myself that they seemed to needlessly reference his affiliation and that VoT did the same thing in my last game as mafia. Not sure why Shape's didn't until I read TW's mention. Maybe I just skimmed over them, idk, I'm pretty tired.

Shapelog seems like a sort of troll player to me and since I have no grasp of his meta, it is hard for me to think much of him as of yet. Is this troll behavior normal for him?

On January 27 2016 14:09 Trfel wrote:
Darthfoley, can you explain by what you meant by this statement, and any conclusions you may have drawn from this?

On January 27 2016 14:34 Trfel wrote:
I see, I misread your post earlier. Thanks for clearing that up.

What do you think about Kuragari42?

On January 27 2016 14:38 _MexicanAlien wrote:


Looking at this from a new angle, I see your point. I'm not ready to dismiss Shapelog as a suspect, but I get how he just might be "too scum" to actually be scum. Either he's clique noob scum, or he's simply bad at focusing, too talkative, and a noob.

On January 27 2016 15:36 Shapelog wrote:
But anyways how did my post had anything to do with this?

On January 27 2016 15:38 darthfoley wrote:
Onegu, I still don't understand how Alur's point A has anything to do with his read that Shapelog is scummy. His point A is basically arguing that what he did (the Kush meta thing) was a stupid thing to do, because it gives mafia!Kush better prep for his playstyle/defense. But the only two ways it's stupid is if

1) Shapelog is town
2) Shapelog and Noon are both mafia and they're setting up meta shit, which is smart.

How does any of that implicate Shapelog as scum? Maybe i'm missing something huge idk

On January 27 2016 15:36 Shapelog wrote:
But anyways how did my post had anything to do with this?

On January 27 2016 15:47 Shapelog wrote:
Also for heavens sakes Town! Shapelog talks to talk. Blue! Shapelog talks to Talk. so Scum! Shapelog prob. talks to Talk (I think).

They All Talk to Talk

On January 27 2016 15:53 Shapelog wrote:

Is this your new training program?

On January 27 2016 16:11 Eden1892 wrote:
I skimmed the early stuff. It's a bit late and I don't really feel like reading the thread in a lot of depth right now, but I got a few early reads worth sharing.


- Shapelog is obviously town, and the first thing I want to do when I get the motivation to read this game in detail (which will be tomorrow, hold me to this and don't let me be lazy) is to read the sequence of people scumreading him early while it was the "in" read to give, because I'm almost positive scum were involved in that.

If I actually have to explain this (and if you need it explained, that's okay; newbie game and all), Shapelog's posting was very spontaneous and "error-prone" in the right way. As Onegu put it, "talking about someone's meta before they even post" is in fact a poor use of a townie's time, because you don't need to call attention to the idea that you have a way to read somebody based on meta. Just make the read in either direction when the trigger behavior you're waiting on manifests itself (or doesn't manifest itself when it should).

But a post like that is never going to come from mafia. Mafia players don't think to themselves: "You know, I should post that I have a meta read on kush before he says anything. That will make me look more townie and advance my agenda." Because it doesn't. It's empty words.

An excited townie, however, who is trying to get discussion started and generate meaningful data for themselves and other players to read, might be overeager and start talking about this tell before it manifests, because it's meaningful to them (even if it doesn't do anything yet). And if you read the rest of Shapelog's posts, eagerness and excitement are pretty reasonable descriptors of his emotional state as he plays.

So we can either assume that Shapelog is a bad noob scum player, who also doesn't have anybody on his team to tell him that his early posting isn't doing anything to help, and who also doesn't have a scum coach telling him the same thing... or we can just assume that he is an eager townie, as his posts read.


- Onegu is my current top suspect for a few okay-ish reasons:

1. Not recognizing Shapelog as obvious town. He talks about Shapelog's posts being weird, his posting direction as not helping town, blabla... ignores all the evidence pointing to the conclusion I just gave you from only skimming the thread, but then avoids giving a concrete read on Shapelog when the action is all centered on Shapelog during that sequence I mentioned at the beginning of this post (p13-14 I think is the right section, where Pepperminttea posted). I expect better from "tryhard Onegu" since I genuinely view the Shapelog read as trivially simple for an experienced player to make.

2. Unusually rigid policies for what is okay to use/discuss. This one's a little convoluted, but hopefully I'll make it clear. At several points during Onegu's interaction with Shapelog, there's these posts that basically say "You're doing X thing. X thing is A Bad Thing. Don't do X thing." Referring to some aspects of scumhunting that are variably useful: metagame reading (sometimes great, sometimes bad), setup spec discussion (same), self-meta (granted, this one is pretty bad always). And he's not wrong when he says them. Shapelog's attempted use of metagame reading of kush was not very productive, and setup spec posting is pretty bad in this setup (which I'll explain in a bit). And there's even a conflating motivator here -- Onegu is an experienced player in a newbie game, so you could argue he feels an impetus to steer the newbies toward more "proper" scumhunting avenues.

But the lack of explanation bothers me a lot, especially given that the things he discusses are variably useful and not clearly always bad. Like he says to stop posting about blues, because it only helps mafia. In this case, it's true: since the mafia know the whole setup, the only thing that can really come from the town discussing the setup is blues accidentally slipping up and making clear that they have extra knowledge of the game state (and thus outing blues to mafia). (Mafia can slip in the same way, but it's hard for townies to distinguish whether the slip is blue or red in nature, and besides, mafia tend to be much more careful about their known information; so it's rare for mafia to slip and much more common for blues to do it, making it bad for town.)

^^ See how easy that explanation was? 3-4 lines. But Onegu doesn't even do that, he just says "this is bad don't do it." It belies the "Onegu is trying to help the newbies get better" explanation, since you would expect an explanation for why something is bad if you're trying to get better by having people tell you something is bad.

As such it reads less like "Onegu trying to help the townies" and more like "Onegu trying to jam up potentially useful (from the standpoint of getting town reads) discussion under the guise of being helpful to newbies."


- kush already seems several orders of magnitude more invested than he was in Unoriginal, where he was mafia. And he made the point I did about Shapelog, and made it first, while people were trying to twist it into a scummy thing for Shapelog to be eager and talking a lot. Early TR for him.


- darthfoley seems much more relaxed and spontaneous than he was in Unoriginal, where he was mafia. He also had a couple of salient points he made that I've forgotten and don't care to look up right now. Early TR here as well.




TL;DR:
- Shapelog solid town
- kush, darth early tr's
- Onegu scummy
- There's probably a mafia among the "Shapelog is scummy" crowd from p13-14

On January 27 2016 16:36 Shapelog wrote:

Oh yeah without a doubt the logic in those posts are great. Idk maybe it just boils down to a personal opinion.

On January 27 2016 16:46 Shapelog wrote:

Damm Onegu you scared away the wild Eden.

On January 27 2016 16:45 Shapelog wrote:
Reading me at all is not random. Sure calling me confirmed town does raises sus. (flashbacks to my Tinfoil with Rikotry) for me. But I honestly can see anything wrong with it other than wording. It is almost 3 am though.

But considering how you just kinda OMGUS Eden reasons for that post is sus. as well.

I mean i can understand where he is coming from. He is seeking to know Why you think i am null after so much debate with my alignment. Does that make you scum to me? No. To him, Yes. Please don't degrade into the onegu who doesn't do cases.

But i mean you basically just snapped at him for even remotely calling you scum. This in turn, makes me believe you are scum. so i am defiantly going to your filter 1st

On January 27 2016 16:59 Eden1892 wrote:
So for those who care, Onegu's responses are terrible because:

1. He literally responds to my claim that Shapelog is an easy town read with "I'm better than you and capable of making next-level reads you can't make," while not having a read on Shapelog either way. He attempts to leverage some kind of perceived skill advantage to shoot down my opinion, but he gives no meaningful comment on whether he actually disagrees with the opinion or not (calling it "so fucking random" isn't meaningful). It's another angle Onegu appears to want to use to shut down various lines of discussion, but when he doesn't even seem to have a line of discussion he wants to pursue, what good is that for anybody?

2. He essentially says here that he isn't shutting down various lines of discussion to help guide newbies. He just wants to call people bad and then find scum.

If you're an astute reader -- indeed, a reader at all -- you will notice that Onegu has only satisfied the "call people bad" half of that. No scum reads -- barely anything that would be considered a read at all.

Where you at Onegu? If you're being such a try hard scum killer this game why is it that all I see from you is shouting newbies down and no reads?

On January 27 2016 17:01 Eden1892 wrote:
Look right now even. He has nothing to say except to call people bad. He's in the thread while real, meaningful reads are being given, and he's pointedly not doing anything constructive. And we're supposed to believe this is tryhard town Onegu? Please.