EPTNewbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 116
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I believe that we're going into MYLO, but I feel that no lynching is probably stupid, because scum can just hit scott31337 and then if we no lynch again, hit him again to bring us to three player LYLO. It's me, Shapelog, _MexicanAlien, scott31337, and PepperMintTea left right? So they kill one tonight, and then four left, but they'll just kill scott31337 and it will be 3 player LYLO. So, you no lynch if you want more time to figure things out, which is a very valid reason, but otherwise it's not worth it. I would suggest lynching before scott31337 dies so that you have 75% of the votes coming from town instead of 66%, only wait two extra nights if there's a really good reason. But probably just go ahead and lynch, there's no use prolonging it. In general, I feel that reading too much into activity at this point is not the best idea. It's much easier for mafia, knowing that they only need one mislynch to win the game, to ramp up activity/involvement for a short amount of time. So be careful of that. At the same time, it's easy for town to have a bad day or two and end up getting lynched because of it. Don't pay too much attention to activity/investment at LYLO, it's much harder to read into true motivations behind activity, because being lynched means instantly losing for anyone. That said, I do think it's PepperMintTea right now, but I'll try to analyze stuff if I get the chance. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
I might wifom myself to insanity, but beyond the votes - I think the biggest clue is why Eden died before Darth - Could it have been a vet who wanted him dead? Iki & Tumble are new, and so is PMT - so I don't think they know him as well as I or Trfel. Hmmm I'm going to ponder and check some stuff tonight. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 07 2016 07:22 scott31337 wrote: I mean, if you lynch me I'd be pretty displeased.The game continues... I might wifom myself to insanity, but beyond the votes - I think the biggest clue is why Eden died before Darth - Could it have been a vet who wanted him dead? Iki & Tumble are new, and so is PMT - so I don't think they know him as well as I or Trfel. Hmmm I'm going to ponder and check some stuff tonight. Seeing as I called mafia on Day 1 and then called another mafia on Day 2, and was actively contributing and pushing reads all of Day 2, and then was one of few people actually bringing up new thoughts and trying to figure stuff out this past day, I think I'm pretty obviously town. Then, look at my filter length, which is way larger any any of my previous mafia games, no comparison. And would I really care so much more about this game when I had two teammates that did nothing and forced me to bus them so early on? Eden died because he's the best player in this game, by far. Because he was active, because he was a leader, and because his top scum read was actually mafia. Please don't waste your time investigating me, and I don't think I could bring myself to fight against my lynch at this point because if you're going to lynch me, then you deserve to lose. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
PepperMintTea scott31337 Trfel _MexicanAlien Shapelog I'm town, scott31337 is town because he claimed veteran. One mafia in: _MexicanAlien Shapelog PepperMintTea _MexicanAlien is town because of my super duper special secret read, plus he seems to be invested and involved. For example, his reaction to nooniansoong flipping town and his questioning approach going into End of Day feel towny, it's much easier for mafia to get complacent. Shapelog is town because a 27 page filter is pretty ridiculous and he's questioning and making original thoughts. That leaves PepperMintTea, and there are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of PepperMintTea. I think it's probably just that simple. I'll try and get through PepperMintTea's filter. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
 But PepperMintTea's latest play just feels so separated from the rest of the thread. "I have no idea who the last mafia is but I have a test to find out" after "la di da di da I'll just policy lynch people for a few days straight and wind up in LYLO" is something I have a lot of trouble seeing from town. PepperMintTea doesn't feel invested in the game at all.Like I'm not really seeing an alternative, and this is pretty condemning either way. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Scum doesn't go "I think that this person is scum and no one else does, here Eden, you said why Shapelog is town, can you explain this to me?" and then let it drop, if Shapelog is a scum buddy. The continual townreads that Tumblewood gives _MexicanAlien seem to really contrast with the continual "I don't have a read"s on PepperMintTea but still being suspicious of people pushing PepperMintTea and soft defending. "I'm going to filter dive PepperMintTea" -> "no read on PepperMintTea, but here's a random question" is pretty interesting. Judging by Tumblewood's filter, where Tumblewood continually refuses to give reads on PepperMintTea and doesn't push PepperMintTea while soft defending PepperMintTea....... makes it fairly clear. Ikidomari's filter seems much harder to read associations from. Drawing associations about any of the remaining players based on his first post feels like a stretch to me. Ikidomari confidently townreads both _MexicanAlien and PepperMintTea, but strangely, PepperMintTea is the one player that he doesn't actually talk about in his second main analysis post (out of two). I actually feel that mafia is less likely to do this, I would have expected mafia to be sure to give a read on their scum buddies (unless they're omitting other reads as well). But it's not as strong of a read. I don't see much from Ikidomari's filter, but Tumblewood's filter feels like yet another reason to scumread PepperMintTea. Shapelog also seems even more towny based on Tumblewood's filter. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Otherwise my reasons for being suspicious of PMT are in the last few pages of my filter. I can try to summarize them if people would like. | ||
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_MexicanAlien
South Africa193 Posts
Day 1: + Show Spoiler + Votes Kuragari42 Votes Onegu Votes Kuragari42 Result: Kuragari42 lynch Day 2: + Show Spoiler + Votes JesusIncarnate Votes Ikidomari (note: PMT was the last one aboard the Ikiwagon) Result: Ikidomari lynch Day 3: + Show Spoiler + Votes scott13733 Votes Tumblewood (last person aboard Tumblewagon) Votes scott13733 Votes Tumblewood (last person aboard, again) Result: Tumblewood lynch Day 4: + Show Spoiler + Votes nooniansoong Result: nooniansoong lynch In the cases of Kuragari42, JesusIncarnate, scott13733, and nooniansoong, PMT was always one of the first three voters. This makes it seen like she was semi-confident in these scumreads. And all of them are confirmed town. In the cases of Ikidomari and Tumblewood, PMT always made the last vote. This makes it look like she was not so sure about the scumread, but joined in (she already knew they were scum) to claim some responsibility for scumlynch. | ||
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_MexicanAlien
South Africa193 Posts
Ikidomari then Tumblewood, Day 1. I didn't realize that until I was looking through the votes. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
I really do think it's PMT... But I don't want to rush it either. | ||
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_MexicanAlien
South Africa193 Posts
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
![[image loading]](http://www.theblaze.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/shutterstock_67040473.jpg) Day 5 Trfel the Vanilla Townie has died! Day ends Tuesday, Feb 09 9:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). | ||
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_MexicanAlien
South Africa193 Posts
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
MA could be playing an awesome game but I just don't see it Shapelog could be too but I just don't see it and that leaves me conftown vet Since tiebreaker can be important - would go on PMT too, or see a phat case. We got 48+24+48 to figure this out if we need it. ##Vote: No-Lynch | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
 gg | ||
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_MexicanAlien
South Africa193 Posts
I see what you mean about having a few more days (24hr days) to figure it out, but if PMT doesn't say anything useful during these last hours then it will just be wasted time. Or do you want more time to filter dive and read the thread? | ||
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_MexicanAlien
South Africa193 Posts
scott31337 Shapelog PepperMintTea (If I were doing this without the knowledge of my role, I would put _MexicanAlien in between PMT and Shape.) scott31337 He claimed Veteran. No counterclaim. Shapelog I find it hard to believe the immense volume of SPAM and utter nonsense coming from Mafia. It is just too illogical. I do not think a noob mafia could pull off that kind of insane stunt. Even coaching (sorry LoneMeow) could not get him this far. _MexicanAlien I honestly think I do seem the least town out of Shape and scott, and this is actually one of my personal reasons I believe PMT has to be scum. If I (knowing my own role) am the second-scummiest player, then the scummiest player has to be the Mafia. PepperMintTea She seemed helpful D1, have good analysis, but then Day2/Day3 she just lost all interest in making any sort of game progress, just came in regularly and said she was busy/only going to be there for a few minutes. She does not seem to care whether or not we lynch scum, just that we lynch. Also, had been ignoring the thread for the past few days (24hr days). She may have a good reason though. I'll be waiting for it. | ||
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Shapelog
United States5188 Posts
Let me filter dive some. No lynch is fine btw. | ||
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