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Pick Your Power: Intriguing - Page 13

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 02:11 GMT
#5108
Getting pulled away. I'll get back to this tomorrow.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 08:53 GMT
#5135
On February 02 2016 11:26 Superbia wrote:
I'm going to sleep. I was making a post to prove your point wrong SL, but I really can't be bothered at this time in the night anymore. My logic is actually deteriorating as I post. I'm not sure if this is 100% correct anymore, I'm pretty sure it is though.

Basically it boils down to us having to sleep with me putting a KP on the shining if there's 1 kp (my cpr) during last night. Which would be super bad for mafia (especially if it's me, due to the fact that I have to to survive mafia kp that night as well) because town gets a free the shining lynch.

So mafia would have to take a huge risk during the night no-shooting.


Lets just assume I'm right for a second and look at last night if Super and Cake are mafia from differen't teams.

In this case Mafia has 3 KP when it is 4v2. Super with 2 KP and Cake with one.

Cake knows it's 50/50 chnace that she gets shot by Super over me (actually after my post on Cake last night it should have been fairly obviuse Cake was the only correct shot) but knows it's prob over, she likely decided to put KP out there. Which actually in this case it seems like Cake would have shot Super over Palmar. So either Cake decided Palmar was worth the longshot or she didn't bother to submit KP.

Super as mafia would def be trying his best to hit the remianing mafia. I think Cake is aruably the only real shot he can make so thats kinda locked in. Now in the off chance Cake is not mafia Super would prob not hold his KP just to make sure he hit the other mafia team, unless Super was almost positive that Cake is mafia. Then Super can either take out another town or, and here is where it gets interesting, hold his shot. Why hold his shot here? Well he knows Cake will be be shooting almost 100% of the time and unless she hits him both of them shooting, and a total of 3 KP going out, means it's final 3 today. So yes, Super holding his shot in that situation is benifitial due to 1) keeping one extra person in lylo to discuss 2) promoting WIFOM that either Cake was with the final mafia or that TS took the RB and lost a shot.

I'm rather sold this is the world due to the fact that I strongly feel that one team was Rels/Dis/Kita/Cake which means the final mafia is from team Vivax/Onegu/FF, which Super fits into rather nicely.




Now lets look at if I'm wrong and the teams are something like Rels/Dis/Kita/Vivax vs Onegu/Cake/FF/???

In this world there was only one mafia KP last night and they picked Palmar to kill even though Super said he was shooting Cake or me. In this case why does scum not Kill Super with no saves left on the table?

Also in this world, from Super's point of view, final mafia has to be me right?

TS was RB'd and Super seem pretty convinced that SL is town, so in this world to Super I am 100% mafia here, or he doesn't think Shining actually took the RB.

But even though Super is argueing that this is the world we live in he is not reaching this conclusion. He thinks TS or I are mafia but doesn't really care who kus he "has auto"

if he were town living in this world he should be wanting to verify that TS got RB'd, and then it should be easy for him to conclude that I must be scum with Cake.




So the conclusion here is that either Super is mafia or if he is town I should be basically confirmed mafia to him.

Thus I think we have to lynch either Super or myself today.

+ Show Spoiler +
Tried to put this down in words before and I didn't think it made any sense.

Hopefully after some sleep I was able to be coherent.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 09:04 GMT
#5136
@ SL I found almost no mention of Onegu in Super's filter.

The day you 1v1d Onegu Super never weighed in on the lynch.

Both of which strike me as really odd since Super was admiment about killing VA for having an anti- town role, but doesn't care at all that Onegu had his role, or they way he claimed that role and wasted Alot's?

Instead of even considering Onegu, super tried to shoot me, and GB made one of the best plays of the game by saving me via RBing Super. He's also brought up shooting me every night since, and only today does he drop that scumread on me.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 09:08 GMT
#5137
Gunna need to take a solid break from this so that when I come back I can look at SL's filter without being super confirmation biased.

I've actually never opened your filter this game SL. I wonder if I've actually gotten that good at reading you or if I'm fooling myself about what you would do as scum.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 09:29 GMT
#5138
Actually before I do that, I'd like to hear why you guys are town reading SL.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 11:30 GMT
#5142
Lol yea.

There is always the chance that I'm off the mark here still.

Even at this stage of the game there is a ton of moving pieces and I'm sure I'm missing or not properly accounting for something.

The only thing that worries me a little is that I've been fairly adamant about TRing SL and TS and if I've been wrong one of you could be trying to take advantage of that.

Still though I really think Kita/Rels/Dis/Cake was a team, and I have fairly good reasons to think SL and TS were not on a team with Onegu while having some evidence of associations between Super and FF/Onegu.

I'm also not sure why nobody shot Super if he is town.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 11:31 GMT
#5143
On February 02 2016 20:27 sicklucker wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 02 2016 18:08 Tictock wrote:
Gunna need to take a solid break from this so that when I come back I can look at SL's filter without being super confirmation biased.

I've actually never opened your filter this game SL. I wonder if I've actually gotten that good at reading you or if I'm fooling myself about what you would do as scum.


who cares your not voting me... convince me


I care, and wtf do you think I've been doing all day?
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 11:55 GMT
#5145
Prob until Proleage is over.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 12:33 GMT
#5149
Probably didn't fully think about it until today, but yea.

CPR Doctor (Pick your Power 3)

BE CAREFUL WITH THAT THING! If the person you are protecting gets attacked then you save them as normal. However if they aren't attacked that night you end up killing them. You can not target yourself at night.

”Shock advised. Charging. Do not touch the Victim” - Automated External Defibrillator (AED)


If town this role means you should have 50/50 shot at a save or townkill tonight. -1 Town from current pool
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 21:28 GMT
#5197
On February 02 2016 23:32 sicklucker wrote:
Shining was very against shooting onegu over alot. He did claim his shot which a mafia might be afraid to do but whos really gonna stop it? Shining cant be killed because his shot still goes off if alots on the other mafia. and getting roleblocked is kind of a scum claim for alot.

Anyway Drifting off gonna nap


I'm not sure why you say this. It looks to me TS was mostly looking at shooting Cake or Alot and did at one point consider shooting Onegu.

Before I get into that, here was a post that I doubt scum would make early on.
On January 21 2016 12:39 The Shining wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 21 2016 11:17 Keirathi wrote:
On January 21 2016 08:25 The Shining wrote:
On January 21 2016 08:21 Palmar wrote:
Palmar's list of mafia people that sound like mafia all the time:

Kitaman
Cephiro
Keirathi
Vivax
Glowingbear

Then there's some meh people that might be mafia too:

Onegu
disformation
ticktock
Alotsomuch

That's 9 people, there's probably some mafia in there.

wow such reads.


Outside of kita and Ceph(your interaction with him gave me town v town vibes), this actually doesn't look bad.

Why kita? I know you had some disagreement over the role assignments but he's arguably doing the most work with it besides you.

Yo Shining.

Literally the only person you've mentioned having a scumread on up until this point was SL. Everything else was just setup speculation stuff. Now 7 out of those 9 people are are in your scum reads list from out of nowhere. Give some reasoning?


The SL read was based heavily on me being annoyed and upset at him suggesting me as a plynch when he knows from past games that I have little to no activity on Monday Tuesday, plus calling me useless when I'm far from the worst town player on TL. I also have a 95% town roll rate so plynching me at any point is going to flip me town 9.5 out of 10 times. But I admit that it was a bit omgus and decided to leave it at that for now. Since then, he's made a few posts about wanting town to work together and there's a slight town feel from some of them so I'm off of him.

As for sheeping Palmars list, I just said it didn't look bad outside of kita and ceph because none of the people on that list scream town to me. And I don't necessarily believe the list in that order, either.

You - no one bumped you from 1,1 which I expected scum would do if you're a good town player unless you're actually scum. And although I liked your catch on Palmar re: agreeing with Damdreds list that had you as top town, I found it weird that you scummed Damdred afterwards. Like if he's scum, why would Palmar agreeing with his list matter unless they're scum together?

Vivax - he isn't cooperating with anyone and OMGUSd kita and Palmar, which just looked really weird. He also did some complaining about the setup and said its just a matter of which scum team wins so why even sign up? He seems pretty bitter for absolutely no reason. There's also literally no clue to what role he picked, which could mean he took a Mafia favored role.

GB - so apathetic and clueless to pretty much everything going on in the game which just feels really off. Most if not all of the answers to his questions are in the OP, which he either didn't read or wants to make us think he didn't read. I can't see any towniness in any of those posts.

Onegu - he's just a big question mark but his wanting to defy everyone and bring someone down with him felt weird. I am probably also a little biased becuz the last time he posted something that wasn't text(that pic), he was scum. And he's tried to appeal to Palmar more than once about carrying him as scum last game and asking what the problem is, as if he's trying to buddy him or win him over.

Disfo - this is probably the weakest one but checking his filter the first half were just pregame questions and the second half was a ton of setup talk. He has more than one post saying he's catching up and asking for direction(any hot topics to discuss?) The things I did like from him was his willingness to discuss and claim his role and his wanting to cooperate. He also dropped a preliminary reads list which didn't look particularly scummy. I'm pretty waffly on this one.

TT - I didn't like his "I probably won't put much effort into this one" post because it just feels like a reason to afk or not care later. And the last time he did that, he got lynched as blue and said he wouldn't do it again so I'm not sure why he's choosing to do it here. I also didn't like his reasoning for blocking Disfo. I have them both as possible scum, but they could very well be different teams. He also had a change in tone from "I won't put much effort into this one" to "I'll probably be invested d1-d2." I don't see how that's townie.

Alotsomuch - no reads or really much of anything. Got directed into a role, claimed he got it and fucked off again. I didn't even realize Alot was playing until I saw this list, which was a red flag.


Makes it pretty unlikely that TS is mafia with any one Onegu/Dis/Vivax (less so on Vivax, everyone put him up early on it seems), and this is basically the proposed team you guys have put him on.

He also encouraged Palmar to use his shot on, which I'm not sure mafia would be so keen to do. Bit weak though.
On January 23 2016 10:24 The Shining wrote:
Palmar if you're so adamant about some of your scumreads(Kita, Damdred) and you're afraid of dying tonight, why haven't you put your money where your mouth is and Arrowd someone?


Back to the business of his shot.
On January 24 2016 06:01 The Shining wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2016 04:04 Superbia wrote:
The shining/cephiro, tell me your targets so we don't stack.


Snow. Snow everywhere. I hate NYC and I'll

Copcake originally was my shot because she wouldn't claim and wasn't doing anything that made sense to me. But her claiming shovel knight made me question it. Especially if she's willing to let town direct her shovel kill.

I also toyed with the idea of shooting her anyway, forcing her to use the shovel next day phase since her kill won't flip alignment until she does, to give us the most info out of the kills. But then she'd probably shovel me out of spite, which wouldn't help town at all. So Idk.

Im also considering shooting AlotSomuch. He's done a whole bunch of nothing and keeps claiming he'll use the kitaman role to confirm whether or not Artorias is in the game and who has him. But there's no scum hunting and no urgency to do anything in his filter.

And again my shot won't flip until the D3 daypost. So he'd still be around to claim his search results tomorrow. If he lies, let the shot go through. And there is always the chance Artorias isn't in the game, which means Alot would get that role power for the following night.

I am at a crossroads.


On January 24 2016 06:54 The Shining wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2016 05:10 Onegu wrote:
On January 23 2016 05:06 Palmar wrote:
If vivax flips town I'm lynching koshi for tmi next



Lol can we lynch koshi now? Even though it is impossible for him to have TMI unless they are on the same team...


Somewhere between TRing Koshi for a dumbtell, telling Koshi to nuke SL and telling Koshi he'd protect him, this post happened.

And this was right before he had those weird questions about lynching Vivax bcuz of being scared we'd give him a shot, then asking if someone didn't believe the Lemming claim, kind of like he knew he was Lemming.

Why would you want to lynch a TR that you're now willing to protect?

I could shoot Onegu.


On January 24 2016 06:59 The Shining wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2016 06:56 Onegu wrote:
On January 24 2016 06:54 The Shining wrote:
On January 23 2016 05:10 Onegu wrote:
On January 23 2016 05:06 Palmar wrote:
If vivax flips town I'm lynching koshi for tmi next



Lol can we lynch koshi now? Even though it is impossible for him to have TMI unless they are on the same team...


Somewhere between TRing Koshi for a dumbtell, telling Koshi to nuke SL and telling Koshi he'd protect him, this post happened.

And this was right before he had those weird questions about lynching Vivax bcuz of being scared we'd give him a shot, then asking if someone didn't believe the Lemming claim, kind of like he knew he was Lemming.

Why would you want to lynch a TR that you're now willing to protect?

I could shoot Onegu.



Lol. Cant see a joke can you?


Look! I summoned an Onegu! Apparently not, I had that issue last game, too. Jokes are too OP for me.

Why would you protect/TR a Koshi that's blatantly doing nothing and admitting it, and not playing pro town? Are you only TRing him off of one dumbtell?


This doesn't look like someone "very against" shooting Onegu to me.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 21:29 GMT
#5198
On January 25 2016 06:46 The Shining wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 25 2016 06:36 sicklucker wrote:
guys does it not make more sense to just see what kita flips before we lynch ff? he wouldnt be the first mafia that lied you know. hes probably not lying but why not wait?


Nah. If kita flips town, we waste time having to wait until tomorrow to lynch FF. Who would you lynch instead?

& if he flips scum, there's a good chance FF flips scum, too, as opposite team member. So 2 scum kills instead of one. There is NO way they're both town, so it's a 1-1 at worst or 2 scum at best.


This also makes it pretty unlikely that Shining was mafia with FF.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 21:32 GMT
#5200
And these make it pretty unlikely that TS was mafia with Kita.

On January 26 2016 08:54 The Shining wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2016 08:52 kitaman27 wrote:
Sorry for absence. It's been a hectic day. I'm town for what that matters. Probably my own fault for getting shot.

You're all going to hate me for this, but I just realized that my "frame all" ability doesn't actually frame all, it frames everyone but my target. So when I got a town result on FF, I assumed that meant he was mafia because of the frame -_-


Wtffff


On January 26 2016 08:55 The Shining wrote:
Spybot - Receive targets full role PM including any hidden details regarding their role (Teammates will not be included). Frame every other player in the game.

Wait how did it come back as alignment anyway? If you got the full Role PM, it shouldn't mention alignment, just the role.

I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 21:33 GMT
#5203
On February 03 2016 06:32 Superbia wrote:
Tictock why do you think Rels and disfo were on the same team?


Read my filter.

It was in my "case" on Rels.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 21:33 GMT
#5204
I'm disagreeing with SL, who unlike you is actually doing stuff today.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 21:36 GMT
#5206
Why the flower is it untowny anyways?

If I was scum I'd just jump on TS with you guys and ride the win.

Besides you have basically told me that you don't care kus you can shoot into the people you aren't convinced are town right now right?

Which from my PoV means you want me to lynch TS so you can shoot me tonight...
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 21:42 GMT
#5210
On February 03 2016 06:37 Superbia wrote:
The fact that you are not suspicious of anyone but me is mindboggling. I simply cannot believe you're town if you're hard defending question marks in mylo for the only reason that you have a scum-read on me. Mylo town-set doesn't work like that.


And I'm supposed to believe that you are town because your role gives you a chance at shooting scum?

I'm supposed to be ok with your super flippant TR on SL and that all the shit I've done today only makes you think I'm scum? Yet you prefer to lynch TS still for ... what reasons now exactly?
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 21:50 GMT
#5212
So fucking lynch me, this day is becoming a headache for me.

Nobody can give me reasons why TS is mafia, Nobody cares to explain their Townreads. You are calling me scum for backing up my read on TS.

TS at least gave a decent reason why he TRs me and is willing to sheep, but has otherwise not really done much today and is just letting his vote hang out there.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 22:03 GMT
#5221
Nah, lynch me. Lets get this over with so I can see if I'm right or being a dumb.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 22:22 GMT
#5237
Tunnels happen when you ride trains of thought.

Sometimes I make the ideas wait at the station, but the train goes on!

[image loading]
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
February 02 2016 22:25 GMT
#5240
Also I may be dumb but I'm not a total moron.

Well... debatable.

But my point is that I can usually make the right call.
I can take that responsibility.
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