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On January 04 2016 04:09 NocturneMage wrote:
Page 1 of mderg's filter could come from either alignment. Mostly one-liners, indicates someone conversational, again either alignment. The scumread on you from him makes sense - if he's not familiar with your play (????) then it makes sense for him to call you hypocritical for calling a lynch when you don't play until d2.
From a scum motivation however, post 323 can be seen - you cannot expect someone to solve the game day 1. From a town motivation though you can also say that you aren't working towards finding a proper scum lynch.
The way I see it for my own standards is that if you cannot find a good lynch or compromise on a lynch early enough in the cycle THEN you go for the policy lynch.
To add to this, checking timestamps it appears you called for the policy lynch fairly early in the cycle. On the flipside, mderg has made some reads/leans day 1. Nothing unusual either way, most players day 1 and early on aren't going to be substantial, just because it's day 1.
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Page 2 - 443/444 I can see where either alignment can make this, 445/455 look more towny. Rest of page 2 takes him to end of day 1. I'd say the only thing mderg doesn't do is that if he believed in the case on scott he could have pushed it more, some of the second page there looks like filter padding (posts 574-576), but even more of his one liners, there are some questions.
If I had to think about it deeper he does ask GigyaS some questions, but I'm not sure if they go anywhere now that I think about it...
....page 3...
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On January 04 2016 01:50 Kmatt wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 01:27 NocturneMage wrote:
KMatt, I have a question. Let's say GlowingBear gets modkilled for whatever strange reason today.
Whom would you vote for now? I would probably start looking into Noon more before placing that vote. The Onegu train seems to be going strong but I haven't been sold on him, while I have been picking up on that connection between GB and Noon. Admittedly with my hunt for GB I haven't been scrutinizing other players more and I ought to go do some more reading on the rest of the thread. On that note, where is Shape? His sudden disappearance following the first night kill is rather suspicious. I can understand being out for New Year's, but it's been two full days now. I think I'm gonna have to join you on that scumread you have for him.
Fair enough, seems like a few people hadn't been either. I understand the latter point, but what makes you hesitant on Onegu specifically?
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On January 04 2016 04:27 GiygaS wrote:Going over it again I really don't like how kmatt ignored GB's probably most substantial post despite going over pretty much every other one when most of his case relies on painting GB as someone who's just shitposting and questioning people. Post I'm referring to: + Show Spoiler +On December 31 2015 03:35 GlowingBear wrote:Cool I've finished catching up. townFidei NocturneMage Irishbound (the way these three are engaging the thread looks like townies trying to solve the game. They see posts, they react, they go after information to further investigate people's alignment)Kush (I've played games with kush before and as mafia he really doesn't care, and he seems to care here. He is here, he is commenting stuff. It's a read mostly based on meta, tho)Shapelog (my weakest townread. I think his excitement to play is genuine, but the way he is engaging the thread is a little more passive than I expect from a townie. His opinions aren't firm. So I think he is townie but I have an eye open regarding him)Scott is null. I've made a promise to keep him alive for more than one day because he usually plays like this. Actually, those incongruences you've guys found in Scott's post could come from town Scott based on his previous games (I think Battle of the Drams is the one I'm thinking about, but I'm not really sure the name of the game I remember him playing like this as town) TheCow is null because I have no idea what his posts are actually after, but I think the formatting is SO SO CUUUUTE Kmatt I had him as mafia, then I reevaluated and thought he might be town (after talking to kush), then he voted me using a very poor reasoning to do so. He is null but very close to scum mafiamderg (no original thoughts. the guy is just following the thread and rarely putting any original thoughts on the thread. Throw suspicions without going after it, like he did talking about me and kush avoiding each otherm and simply isn't caring for actually uncovering people's alignment)Onegu (Meta: he is too invested in the game) (Evidence: calls fidei out for a dumb reason as a scumslip, saying Fidei is mafia for saying Onegu is a mislynch. This is bad, but the greatest problem isn't that this is a bad reason to jump on someone. It's because one of Shapelog's first post was this [spoiler]On December 29 2015 07:06 Shapelog wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2015 07:05 scott31337 wrote:On December 29 2015 07:04 nooniansoong wrote:On December 29 2015 07:02 GlowingBear wrote: I wanted to be blue so much it's so anti-town to claim vt I agree with the stone man here. Haven't you learned yet Bear? He might need another mislynch......  [/spoiler] but he never suspects Shapelog for TMI - Too Much Insight)
Trying to see it from his point of view - a total newbie, the focus of the case, and the fact he's stated numerous examples to support his case. I have some ideas from that perspective as to why he may have ignored this - but I think it's town's best interest to see what he has to say as to his focus.
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Finished with the mderg filter. Nothing's really screaming out to me as "I am scum lynch me" whereas is the case with Onegu and GB. I can understand a PoE argument but that's usually an argument I'd use for after there is at least one red flip.
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On January 04 2016 04:54 GlowingBear wrote:
Why am I Mafia, NM?
I've went against every single point you've wrote. You decided I'm Mafia because I didn't come back earlier. Is that all?
No, first, you re-voted Onegu after the fact, second, there were followup questions from both GigyaS and myself you didn't answer.
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On January 04 2016 05:22 nooniansoong wrote:
i disagree that disinformation confirmed anything. His girlfriend didn't see the PM when she started writing in the thread. the host had to respond in the thread because she wrote in teh thread.
This.
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On January 04 2016 05:46 GiygaS wrote:
He answered mine, it was because I missed a filter page
Okay, fair enough, back at GB, your first wave of answers, you also didn't check up on (2), also on (4) kush was trying to convince me that mderg was mafia, and a look through his filter showed he had a decent range of reads on people, so your argument about him being selective doesn't hold water either.
Kush is arguing that mderg is going after easy reads which is a separate argument but GB, your argument that he's being selective definitely does not hold water.
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Like I still have to account for what evidence you had in front of you when you made the original vote that you did and why. And why that vote makes no sense given your prior argument and sentiment.
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On January 04 2016 07:12 GiygaS wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 07:07 The Shining wrote:
Well I fucked that. I can't even be mad at anyone but myself. Giygas, I'm pretty sure I know why but I just want to hear it from you. Why did you switch?
GB you were just saved. Start shitting townie rainbows pls? Super close lynch like this and I'm feeling like I chose wrong...bah I just wasn't sure on GB and then your point about where mafia was voting convinced me.fuckfuckfuckfuckfuck
This might sound like a dumb question but if this was the case, why did you vote him in the first place?
On January 04 2016 05:09 GiygaS wrote:
I would agree with this if you also included his mderg "read". I can see you ignoring it though as it wasn't particularly substantial. I think I'm going to vote GB, the case seems to hold up.
Until Shining appeared from what I was reading of your filter, you didn't seem to have a read on Onegu either though you had said you'd look at both filters.
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Hey FF. We meet again.
And we had an extended night cycle over New Year's, but Shapelog appears to have had RL issues even before he was replaced.
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On January 04 2016 07:22 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 07:13 GlowingBear wrote:On January 04 2016 07:11 The Shining wrote:On January 04 2016 07:10 GlowingBear wrote:On January 04 2016 07:07 The Shining wrote:
Well I fucked that. I can't even be mad at anyone but myself. Giygas, I'm pretty sure I know why but I just want to hear it from you. Why did you switch?
GB you were just saved. Start shitting townie rainbows pls? Super close lynch like this and I'm feeling like I chose wrong...bah I promise you I'm town this game and I didn't try to deceive you You answered the Fidei TR, thanks, but why did you have me as never lynch? No mafia asks for a replacement for being unable to play. They can use it to survive through days. People that ask for a replacement is usually town concerned of ruining other people's game. So you think Shape is town, too? Don't you think it's also likely scum being unable to play would also ask for a replacement to not risk being modkilled and screwing over their scumteam? That feels NAI, at best, to me. I'm not sure it warrants a read either way. And I've def seen scum replace out before. Hm.
Yeah I'll admit I don't like this response either - I can think of two games offhand where scum replaced out, Dark Tournament (Onegu for FF) and Himalayas which I obsed I know there was a mafia replacement and that replacement played really well, wound up endgaming infamously with Holyflare.
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Future reference:
day 1
Final Vote Count
scott31337 (6): Irishbound, NocturneMage, mderg, GiygaS, GlowingBear, Fidei86
Fidei86 (3): Onegu, nooniansoong, scott31337
nooniansoong (1): Shapelog
GlowingBear (1): Kmatt
Kmatt (1): TheCow, GlowingBear, scott31337
GiygaS (0): Kmatt, scott31337, Fidei86
Onegu (0): nooniansoong
day 2
Final Vote Count
Onegu (5): GlowingBear, nooniansoong, NocturneMage, Fidei86. GiygaS, The Shining
GlowingBear (4): Kmatt, Onegu, mderg, NocturneMage, GiygaS
GiygaS (0) GlowingBear
Not Voting (1): Shapelog
Starting point to look at context of votes. If I learnt anything from Newbie 17...thank you Trfel.
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On January 04 2016 07:48 The Shining wrote:
Irish flipped town and I have a pretty solid TR on NM, who are the first 2 votes on Scott. Irish also pushed this lynch pretty hard. I believe the lynch was a case of town adamantly pushing the town ML and scum having to do zero work on it. I wouldn't be surprised if there was only one scum on the Scott wagon and the rest were off-wagon. Like kush/noon. If i choose to believe GB is town, that leaves me with mderg/Fidei/Giygas as one of the scum on the Scott wagon.
Kush can you explain to me how you went from voting Fidei WITH Onegu D1 to voting Onegu WITH Fidei D2?
I also really hate outlier votes and have caught scum that way, because scum wouldn't want to all be on the wagon if its a mislynch, like Scotts wagon. So I'm immediately suspicious of Kmatt and Shapelog. But I found a few townie brownies in your filter and Shape is apparently being replaced or modkilled so I won't get too much into that until next day phase, assuming I live.
I'll probably go read Fidei and mderg and giygas tonight.
This probably boils down to me not understanding this part of voting analysis but
(1) how are you sure scum didn't just pile on at the end, like what are you using to eliminate that possibility?
(2) how are you sure multiple scum wouldn't be caught off wagon?
Both plays seem suboptimal unless you are taking the route of considering this for a newbie game.
I'll need to re-read for full context, but...
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EBWOP, wait you're saying kush was off wagon? If I remember right from end of cycle, he was on a wagon of three against Fidei and tried to get people to vote Fidei.
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On January 04 2016 08:14 Fecalfeast wrote:
Wait who's the one who started the conversation about whether replacing is alignment indicative? that's scummy as fuck mod actions and replacements are not alignment indicative it's practically setup talk
Pretty sure that was GB.
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On January 04 2016 08:14 NocturneMage wrote:
EBWOP, wait you're saying kush was off wagon? If I remember right from end of cycle, he was on a wagon of three against Fidei and tried to get people to vote Fidei.
like I'm interpreting the Fidei/scott wagons as the main ones and everyone else off wagon but that's just me based on the context of end of 1st cycle.
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Also at Shining, solo voters aren't so bad if they are tunnelled, at least that's what I was taught by town coaches in the past, maybe you agree/disagree there, but there should be alternate scumreads that allow them to consolidate for experienced players.
Another thing I'll fill you in from day 1 is that 2-3 of those votes were total afk votes, they had to post their cases and were unable to push them. I remember looking this over night 1 or something and trying to pin down 2 votes on the main (scott) wagon and the remaining I just assumed it was a solo voter but all votes were afk votes, I think two of them had cases, a third might not have had one.
KMatt had his back and forth spiel on GB, Cow (now you lol) had his spiel on KMatt and Shapelog afk voted Noon in some wall of text.
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I also recall Noon voting Fidei, pushing for the lynch but dropping that read IIRC but I also need to re-read for context.
Going to pick up on this tomorrow as I'm closing in on midnight now.
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EPT
