On December 20 2015 16:32 Shapelog wrote:Well Comrades! TT is one sly motherfucker or one really really really really unlucky miller.
Hes Scum!
He visted Kush last night.
And yes, i am claiming the blue role of Fritz Stahlbaum, I am a one-time tracker (since mechanics state a role can be one-shot two shot or mutishot). It is funny how i got this piece of info btw. I misunderstood my role haha. I thought i see who Vists the person i was TRACKING not the other way around. You can thank that misunderstanding when TT flips mafia
1st reason why he is scum over unlucky Miller: ProbabilityMath! the greatest weakness of guess who games!
Let us obverse the natural and non-natural (human mafia influence.)
Natural:
lets say the set up of the game was like this: 2-3 blue roles, 3 vt, 2-3 millers, 2-3 wanders, 3 scum.
Best chance TT gets miller is 3/13
Chance of visting Kush last night 1/9
Natural chance (random shot basically) of mafia killing kush the same night: 1/9
3 * 1 * 1 = 3
13 * 9 * 9 = 1053
So a natural chance of all that happening is 3/1053 or 1/351 or
.28 % Of ever happening!
But, I can hear you say (or TT at least) what about human mafia? They are surly not ever going to randomly shot someone! that be unreasonable! and that is true.... But there is way we can roughly calculate the non-natural chance that mafia would shot Kush last night. Patterns.
So far 2/3 of the night kills by mafia have been second hand town members. What do i mean by second hand? townies who have lack luster mafia cases and slash or low content. Only Koshi has broken this rule. So we can calcule with this pattern who is mafia target last night:
TS: heck no with that Rels case does he fit in. (might be mafia...)
Giygas Khan: No, he did that big case on me, and a few smaller, but good scum cases/posts analyzes.
Damred: not a single real case past D1, and that wasn't even big. +1 (might be mafia)
TT: Doesn't matter, hes mafia, he would be shooting, so subtract one from the bottom. But if we are calling him a miller, then no
Kush: Check +1
Koshi: Nope..... Mafia probuly killed him for town cred (more on that later) Lets say mafia already knew they were going to kill him so we will exclude him to give TT the best chance here.
Me: Hell no, I been their biggest advocate (again later on)
Surkit: Yes, but i think he is mafia along with TT.
LS: pretty meh, not enough to be out of this logic : +1
Vobby: checkish +1, if i was scum, might as well lynch him and get cred at this point though. So for the sake of it (and since everyone else is calling him mafia I put him with the mafia team for this)
So 3/6 or 1/2 of the people were up to be shot by mafia last night.
3 * 1 * 1 = 3
13 * 9 * 2 = 234
So 3/234 or 1/78 or 1.2 % chance of it happening.
1.2% vs a .28 % for innocent miller to be caught going to a dead person's home. Awful chances of miller aren't they? So if he is mafia it is a
98.8% non natural chance and a 99.72 natural chance that he was visiting for mafia business.
Go ahead and fight me if you think he was just visiting Kush for a drink on the night he died. Go ahead, i got math.
2nd reasoning: TT has done nothing that makes sense as mafia.
I bet you read that and went "What?" how can you claim someone is mafia when they done nothing that makes sense.
I think i told Damred best why when he posted this:
Show nested quote +On December 18 2015 08:53 Damdred wrote:
Let me make it clear why I think Rels is town from that exchange specifically.
1) Mafia as a whole have a great sense of wanting to keep good apperances in thread. This comes from muddying pushing somewhat easy lunches avoiding hot topics. Most of this comes from not wanting to disturb waters and draw attention.
Show nested quote +On December 18 2015 09:20 Shapelog wrote:On December 18 2015 08:53 Damdred wrote:
Let me make it clear why I think Rels is town from that exchange specifically.
1) Mafia as a whole have a great sense of wanting to keep good apperances in thread. This comes from muddying pushing somewhat easy lunches avoiding hot topics. Most of this comes from not wanting to disturb waters and draw attention.
1. So your saying "
typically, mafia is more quiet then town and meh pushs easy targets." Ok, that makes sense. But how does that factor in. Can't
Anyone decide not to follow the mafia's golden rule? How does that really make sense? just because 75% of people follow a logic makes the 25% all the more deadly. Idk, maybe it is because when i gotten mafia/scum in RL mafia games i play exactly the same.
1st off my biggest issue with this and TT is that it is hard for him to "Trend waters" as Damred claim mafia should do. Is that that is
Exactly why everyone scum read TT at the beginning! Just like koshi, if he doesn't live up to his "town play" he is auto scum in people eyes. So he has to do these big reads and cases. Hes got to put up the show, to be believe as town. And that's it. It is like something known as security theater, it is not actual security, it is just a show of security like behavior and actions that makes everyone feel safe. That is what he is doing here. Lets go threw the list:
Rik case: So TT enters the game after much inactiveness, (maybe planned) and comes in and has a magically same theory i had about Rik. About his hard ass town read on me. Everyone wrote it off as tinfoil basically, except him. Tell me, why in the world would mafia come into the game, see people are questioning he's side, and instead of posting a bunch of stuff and posting. He just jumps on this. He could easily saw my theory and jump on. You can how this actually HELPS a mafia.
Let me run it again, nearing end of D1, before wagons really from. TT sees votes on him, realizes that no one paid attention to his Rik post for the most part, and is discussing lynching him. Makes a relative rushed post, and gets into a conversation with Riks. Everyone points out his post is rushed, so he does something unexcepting, he votes for Giyga Khan. At that point, he wasn't even really talked about in the terms of being scum. Well then people scum read him for wasting his vote. I can image at this point he was desperate. He knew the two wagons were town and town. Damred (who maybe is his partner) does shenanigans and he has to vote one or the other to avoid sus. about him voting GiygaS Khan. And hammers GB because "well i am sus. might as well do something more sus. so i look town". Then to give him more cred, he goes off me going hard onto Rik. then kills Rik.
Koshi Vote:
pretty self explaining. Knew he would be town and that a fellow team mate had a gun. Maybe onegu is with him lol.
Kush kill:
So here we are. The info that got me writing this WoT in the first place. But why would the person kill the person he just scum reads? Duh for the cred.
Show nested quote +On December 17 2015 08:46 kushm4sta wrote:
So that's got to look good for me right? A townie saved me.
It is different then from when Kush said he was more townie because Rik die. Remember how everyone thought this was a WIFOM move by mafia to cast sus. on me and kush? And everyone told Kush it was NAI? Kush didn't scum read Rik, in fact, he sided with rik. Compare this too:
Show nested quote +On December 20 2015 06:01 Tictock wrote:So Shape posted this, which I think is rather good.
On December 19 2015 05:11 Shapelog wrote:Ok i gone through his filter. 1st thing i want to bring up is his Rit town read.
On December 14 2015 14:01 kushm4sta wrote:
hello dear friends. I was not expecting this game to start so quickly. The number of potential signups made me think this was a large game and that it would start nearer to christmas.
Should I ask for replacement? hmm no I think I would rather just piss everyone off with my minimal activity.
I'm going to placeholder on ritoky because i see his name up there and I recall him posting pics of miley cyrus.
On December 14 2015 23:22 kushm4sta wrote:
Did a quick control-f for my name.
No, Koshi, I will not be useless. This level of activity looks like it will be quite manageable for me to keep up with.
Yes, GB,I do deserve your vote at this point in time. I hope to put some time into this game at lunch.
All I can say now is ritoky is obviously town, which is funny because I'm currently voting him.
On December 15 2015 04:16 kushm4sta wrote:On December 15 2015 04:06 Sukrit wrote:
Can you tell me why ritoky is townie kush? I have him completely null is there something you are seeing that I am not?
his long post where he sounds paranoidOn December 15 2015 03:38 GlowingBear wrote:On December 15 2015 02:56 kushm4sta wrote:
On second thought after rereading his filter I'm not so sure I want to put gigas on my scum list yet. I will wait to see what his scumreads look like.
Gb, I'll vote for him when I get a chance. Unless he does something townie.
After re reading a 1 page filter? Wow that seems a lot to rethink huh
I don't what you mean here. What is scummy about what I said precisely?
I find his town read awkward. Like his main point for it was because Rik sounded paraiod in is post (which he didn't seem to me.) It is almost like he was trying to find a reason to town read him.
On December 17 2015 08:46 kushm4sta wrote:
So that's got to look good for me right? A townie saved me.
And then says "The person i was town reading died, that good right?". It's weird IMO. Rational Shapelog says this is a coincidence, but irrational shapelog says this is mafia indicate. And that Surkitengo and Kush planed to kill Rik from day one.
Second point, Him and GiygaS khan:
On December 17 2015 02:46 kushm4sta wrote:On December 15 2015 02:58 GiygaS wrote:I'll reread tt filter and see, but all I have is null or town reads on everyone, except a tiny lean on Koshi from meta that I haven't even experienced.
This read on koshi makes me think he's town. It is a very specific type of read. Very nuanced. Scum don't have nuanced reads like that.
On December 17 2015 02:57 kushm4sta wrote: Current scum reads are on tt (again, I really don't like that list of townread retraction with NAI stuff) and shape (holy shit that random asslist in to weird sukrit fos). Might get some more/less post-filters, but we'll see.
His scumreads look believable and so does his case on rels. Not saying they are right or wrong but they look like townie reads
So he is town reading GiygaS Khan.
On December 18 2015 19:53 kushm4sta wrote:
Really not impressed with that exam schedule post. I'm sure it's true but the pressure want even on him. Scummy because he wants to take advantage of an irl excuse to its fullest. He could have just said I have exams.
Onegu no one wants your steam of consciousness. That does not help find scum.
Then calling his RL reasoning scum sus. He goes against all his defense for GiygaS Khan and calls him scummy. I feel this is a townie post. I can't really explain why, But run the case where they are a team. Why even post this? For town cred and bring sus. on a team mate. Heck lets look through this in the eyes of a kush as mafia and GiygaS as town, why go against one the people your town reading and bring sus. onto your self? To try to get a mislynch when everyone is set on either Rels or Vobby? Thats why i think this is a townie post, because it makes in a mafia shoes IMO.
Point 3: me
Scum->town->Town with chance of mafia
What do i mean?
On December 19 2015 01:20 kushm4sta wrote:Here's some tinfoily stuff.
On December 17 2015 09:36 Shapelog wrote:
Plus killing the person who is defending you seems like only a thing i do.
ritoky defended shape.
Do not think my actively is actually any alignment indicating for me. Would of been the same activeness roughly if I rolled mafia. Except maybe a bit thought out and better fleshed posts since i had a team to relay things. But then i prob. post dumb, dull, crap time to time because they weren't on lol.
what if shape is giving himself away here just as a little wink to himself
Again, why would mafia go after someone else at this point. Plus i am a sucker for tinfoil
So in conclusion, Kush is prob. town but as scummy posts.
His conclusion is rahter mixed, prob town but with scummy posts?
Looking at Kush's vote D2.
On December 19 2015 01:21 kushm4sta wrote:
gonna placeholder vivax bbl at lynch
On December 19 2015 02:39 kushm4sta wrote:On December 19 2015 02:36 Koshi wrote:On December 17 2015 10:33 Tubesock wrote:On December 17 2015 10:12 Shapelog wrote:On December 17 2015 09:58 Tubesock wrote:On December 17 2015 09:45 Shapelog wrote:On December 17 2015 09:36 Tubesock wrote:On December 17 2015 08:02 Shapelog wrote:
Welp, That happen.
That's funny shit.
I'm going to admit I don't really understand much of your big list post. Why do LS and Damdred have to be on the same team? Why can't they be budding the other? You seem to tie them together but you have Damdred more towny than LS. I feel the opposite. I think LS has added more thought to the game. The only thing Damdred did I think is towny is scum Rels and that's probably just because Rels cased him. Can you more explain your town read on Damdred?
The rest of your associative reads, seems they all preclude that every shitfight 2 players have here are town vs mafia. I read this post and thought you don't think town fights town. That's not true is it?
I'm starting to rethink my position on damdred. Earlier on in the EoD, i posted it didn't make much sense if he was mafia and the wagons were both town to do it. Why draw the attention onto himself? But i'm starting to see what Koshius and other people are saying about him. I will look at him in Dark tournament and compare his town game from that to here.
And no town does fight town time to time (Should know from TT and Vobby wagons from Haunted mansion). Thanks for bringing this up. I ponder about it with kush. Like it can see it from both sides of the flip. Idk, i just posted that I won't be tunneling the mafia vs town stuff on him for the time being,
You been quiet btw. Go any ideas about anything? list, scums teams, anything?
My last list post I posted before going to bed 10 hours ago is essentially unchanged. Rels is now lower. Ritoky I should put in green but to be funny I'd keep him lower than Koshi because he didn't use Caps Lock or even held his shift key like a real baller.
So uh apparently you missed my last couple of posts.
Yeah i did miss it. Just looked into your filter and found #719 (your list). I remember seeing the case about you made against Rels now. I didn't really paid attention once it got to the town/mafia meta Rels part, since i'm not the one who should make/back up a meta case. And decided to come back to it later and keep pushing/tunneling. Will add Rels filter from dark tournament also to my read list tonight. I read the post now, But i going to reread what he said during the time he called you scum.
My town/mafiaRels isn't really all that about meta. I mean it IS but it's not like necessarily Rels specific. Hard to explain. I've seen Rels in like 3 games. He was try hard and forceful in all, both as mafia and town. I respect his play, I think he's a strong player. It's not a meta read where it's like "Well, X person uses 15 smiley faces per paragraph, and this game she's doing 5" It's more like mafia Rels doesn't HAVE to go after it all the time. But town Rels
basically does.
In any case, disregard the meta bit. Do you think he's solving the game or attacking easy targets or only people who look at him? We can argue the semantics if Damdred is an easy target or not later. I'm even willing to concede Damdred is no easy target. My point still stands.
Do you like this read Kush? Is it legit?
I don't know about rels.
There Tube is using shit meta. I don't think it's a Scummy read tho
On December 19 2015 02:44 kushm4sta wrote:
Rels Damdred ls Gigas vivax are all on my maybe list
On December 19 2015 02:54 kushm4sta wrote:
Yah I'm going over rels filter again now. I think I could lynch him.
Is pretty poor reasoning.
And that's a pretty long maybe list for all the townreading he was doing earlier on...Kush might well be Mafia here.
Then Kush dies. The night TT calls him scum, magically he visits the place with at best a 1.2% chance roughly as a miller? And the night before, digs up my read on kush which practically said "This guy is town, but he does have a few scummys posts" which clearly implies that they aren't big enough to make me think he was mafia. Then pulls up irrelevant D2 garage filter from Kushs filter to call him scum.
Why would he do this as mafia? Because that has been his entire plan from the beginning! And it work so good to, I mean if it wasn't for my stupid mistake i would of not even have knew. But everything makes sense now. But it is time to drive home the "mafia is being obvious mafia to try to seem town" claim.
3rd reason: His trouble, dumbtell posts.
Show nested quote +On December 19 2015 08:14 Tictock wrote:On December 19 2015 08:11 Koshi wrote:
Damdred/TT/Vivax
gg wp
Yea kus I'm fucking mafia here bussing all my teammates.
You are the fucking king of Nonsense Koshi.
And why the hell are you only talking in terms of Teams when we haven't lynched mafia yet?
Gah, it's like you want me to tunnel you.
Idk about Damdred (I don't think really he went hard after damdred tbh, more like "his play makes no sense! again") about about Vivax. Tell me why the hell mafia at this point shouldn't get rid of him if he is scum? Because he is a team mate? It is way to hard to defend his crap. It seems too good that mafia would just let one of their own get lynch without some plan. And guess what, the other two TT and ???? are doing just that, to get cred. Mafia will have too at this point either come out and lie about a role or just let him get lynch. But if Vivax is town (which according to TS could be a 50/50 right now bewteen mafia and town RB) then it is easy winnings right now. Keeping vivax alive as possible has been mafia key goal. No one except LS i think even glace at my post D2 when i keep bringing up Vobby. Why not keep town Vivax alive as long as possible. I still think he is scum, but honestly a coinflip right now (if what TS is saying is true, which for all i know could be mafia trying to influence voting) At our last lynch is super fucking dicey
Dead Koshi post:
Show nested quote +On December 20 2015 11:56 Tictock wrote:On December 20 2015 09:43 Shapelog wrote:On December 20 2015 09:36 LightningStrike wrote:
anyone that is a vig or had the present you need to claim now.
A. We do not have a vig as non of the roles in blue are vigs.
B. If person was town with the present of the gun they would almost 100% of the time kill Vobby. This is why Mafia had the Gun This 100%.
I know I would have shot Vobb... Vivax if I had had the chance. Even after that looking into Kush's poor reasoning vote onto Rels.
This pretty much clears Damdred too based on his D1 vote, I don't think mafia would try to start shenannies when it's town v town like that.
I think Vivax is the obvious lynch today.
However the day is still young and I think Koshi has a really strong chance at being mafia with Vivax.So
##Vote: Koshi This is prob. NAI but is worth mentioning. Easy knowing that koshi is dieing to post this after day to basically be town. How does mafia forget who they are killing? Excellently, that is why he is mafia. Sees my post about vig and gun, Somehow misses the who conversation with LS about asking someone to claim up to who shot koshi (or maybe kush and TT had gun lol, no wait makes no sense) Skips Night flips and posts a koshi lynch. Because it seems townie. But this is his biggest dumbtell all game for the "obivous mafia being town" plan.
Hell lets ponder if a town killed koshi last night. By his skimmyness alone, to not even look at who died. seems like a normal scum move. Wait....He HAD TO READ THE DAY CYCLE POST BECAUSE HE KNEW KUSH DIED! HOW IN THE HELL DID HE MISS KOSHI? Maybe skimming through to see if his night kill got healed!
And you know what is funny? I FUCKING BROUGHT IT, SO DID EVERYONE ELSE! MAFIA TOO OBVIOUS? NO THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE. I mean give me your 1st reason that you ever thought of in this game that TT was town? Was it a town read? scum case? No, it was because it was posting like a mad man trying to get everyone to say "thats our boy" and it fucking work! Damm......
Conclusion:
Which one do you feel more comfortable with?
A almost 99% gaurtreed scum or a 50/50 scum? Pure probulbilty says that TT only has a 1.2 % of rolling town at this point. Vivax still has
50%! at this point.
My money is on the 99% scum
God i was so lucky
##Vote: TicTockI can not believe you betrayed me tinfoil buddy
you even killed the new member.
Also if TS is mafia he fucked you over baldly because of a present call.
Also Thanking my dumbness and my misunderstanding of the role lol.
EPT
