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On December 08 2015 02:35 Fidei86 wrote:
Saying "I will vote for X but I'd rather vote for Y" is exactly what I said in Newbie Mafia XIV on d1, when we shenaniganed onto Mafia GB. Alex might remember that.
Not that it really proves anything, I suppose.
Yeah there were parts of that first paragraph I disagreed with. Or that I don't feel are completely mafia indicative.
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I mean I look at that criteria and I think Trfel looks significantly worse. NK analysis, check. focus on limited people (i.e. me...) check. Tonally, Trfel is throwing around the same "woe is me" when people aren't listening to him. Subjective yes, but same criteria.
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here's an overall read progression:
On December 03 2015 03:17 Trfel wrote:
I'm going to eat lunch, I'll get to Rels and Fidei86 after. Fidei86 is probably an okay lynch, but I need to read his filter first.
Putting off reading Damdred until he answers my question, it would help me to read him greatly.
Otherwise, I could lynch MoosyDoosy today.
I don't want to lynch Onegu today for stupid reasons.
On December 03 2015 03:50 Trfel wrote:
Ugh, I need to actually get lunch, but here's my thing on MoosyDoosy really quick.
When he checked his role PM, he said he was town, and he got really frustrated. Then three minutes later, he seemed quite happy. Throughout his filter, he seems really happy and there's no hint of frustration at all. This doesn't match.
On December 03 2015 04:18 Trfel wrote:
I was thinking about it over lunch. MoosyDoosy is nearly guaranteed scum.
There's everything you could ask for except for baby seals.
Voting for MoosyDoosy. You should, too.
On December 03 2015 04:58 Trfel wrote:
Half the Sky, MoosyDoosy is mafia and needs to be lynched. Trust me.
On December 03 2015 06:23 Trfel wrote:
Like, this isn't a policy lynch at all.
MoosyDoosy isn't being lynched because he's bad. MoosyDoosy isn't being lynched because he's useless. MoosyDoosy isn't being lynched because he's obnoxious.
MoosyDoosy is being lynched because his play has too many contradictions and has no possible town mindset behind it, while it fits perfectly with mafia motivation of contributing as little as possible, in this case relying on meta to avoid the Day 1 lynch.
(leaving out 4-5 quotes on his push on Moosy)
then.....AFTER end of cycle.....
On December 03 2015 08:30 Trfel wrote:
I'm not quite as confident in MoosyDoosy being scum any more, because generally people would listen to me when I'm right. Like, I don't see how I could be wrong, however I need to clear my head and take another look. I think he is likely scum, though.
I'm not sure what his post-deadline posts suggest, I'm really terrible at reading into emotions so I might have to ignore those.
Then Trfel makes his ridiculous case on me using Moosy's and my play, it was that massive 5 point bullet case that he spent a lot of time on.
Then I come out with pushing HTS. Then he comes up with this.
On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:35 The Shining wrote:On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote:
Hrm.
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas
The Shining
disformation
Fecalfeast NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot. Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads? Was waiting for someone to ask that. Was hoping that no one asked that  I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so) I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all. Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here.And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred. I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar. That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred. But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town.
TLDR - based on NK analysis I AM LIKELY TOWN
Then a few more posts saying I'm less likely mafia.
Then out of nowhere somewhere he's saying that it's possible I might be bussing HTS.
Rels (and even Fidei!!!!!!) actually considered the town story - that I have extremely solid meta/personality basis on Dani. TRFEL DIDN'T DO THAT (if he did, I truly missed it) from all I read.
Then this.
On December 05 2015 04:39 Trfel wrote:I think that NocturneMage is mafia. He hasn't been really posting for that long, which makes it hard to pin him on long-term mafia motivations. But short-term, it looks like he's playing a momentum style of mafia.
If you don't know what that is, it's how I like play as mafia, because it's the most fun (the term is my own in origin, though others may use it before to mean the same thing, or possibly something else, idk  ). Basically the point is to be pushing people so much (either in force or in number of pushes or both) that everyone's so busy with that that they don't stop to realize that you're mafia. The characteristics of this are clearly shown in NocturneMage's play. - Very confident reads/play
- Lots of posts pushing people
- Few/no townreads, little/no interaction with townreads (the second point doesn't need to be true but often happens)
- (possibly) excessive emotions (especially anger)
- Logical gaps in reads, ignores ways that scumreads could be town
- Portrays themself as a "holy crusade to lynch mafia"
Based on this, the logical/emotional inconsistencies in NocturneMage's play, and the "four people are scum, everyone else doesn't exist" read progression, I think that NocturneMage is mafia. Thoughts?
So I'm mafia because I am playing the way that Trfel is playing as mafia?
Are you shitting me? What the hell progression is that?
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I refute all these posts and particularly the basis for this scumreads based on how I replaced into the game, caught up, towncircled and adjusted reads (and I'm still doing so!!!!), and then he's still on his merry way saying I'm mafia? He uses his own metrics to make these assumptions. I'm on page 8/10 of his filter, he gives two town reads on dyh/ls, and then goes back to just seeing me as public enemy #1.
focusing on absolutely no one else except me and using explanations that don't make me mafia through several points I've refuted him on based on comparison of his play to last game, his approach to me this game, his refusal to see how I process through a town lens, including any reasoning for my change in tone, which I have explained.
he pulled the same shit last game as mafia, stuff that may not be alignment indicative and exclusive scum lens here.
and this all, plus the NKs....
Just kill Trfel.
I know there is mafia #3, I will follow up on James, and I won't ignore a third mafia but just honestly kill Trfel.
Bloody hell.
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evaluating Fidei that is.
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On December 08 2015 05:45 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 22:53 disformation wrote:Hmm... yeah I think I remember you calling out HtS on D1. But here you are "only" slightly suspicious... and what is a little scum lean between good partners?  On December 01 2015 21:45 Fidei86 wrote:
@Rels
I have looked over HTS' posts, and I am more okay with #209 now that I've read it a few times. There's nothing particularly objectionable in there.
At #219, I disagree with her read on the Palmar / Shining interaction. There is something very strange about Shining's progression, and HTS just skates past it.
She then at #224, #237 and #246 goes forward and then back on on Trfel. She asks Shining about people other than Palmar, but noticeably doesn't ask Palmar about people other than Shining.
I know that HTS is very much a fan of Palmar's scum play. I know that she has previously had him as a coach and that she generally speaks highly of him as a player. It is strange to me that she almost specifically avoids interacting with him, or making any comments about him. Honestly, if she can't read him, it seems like the rest of us don't have a chance.
None of the above is a guaranteed scum-tell. But I find it somewhat suspicious. Town HTS nitpicks as well, but I just always get the sense that she is going somewhere with her thoughts. That seems lacking to me. Still want to look at your whole filter and progression on HtS later tonight. The thing is: someone had to bus her. From my POV two someones have bussed HtS and I am going to find out who.  Disfo I think you fundamentally misunderstand what bussing is. Bussing is where one mafia player actively works to get HTS lynched. The only people who really worked on the HTS lynch actively were NM, DYH and me. Oh and Palmar, but he's flipped town. If any of us were mafia, that would be a bus. The fact is that it was plainly obvious that she was going to get lynched once Alex, Palmar and I basically decided it. Lots of the rest of you voted for her, but just voting for a scum is not the same as bussing. Your logic is just totally wrong here.
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ugh hold on, that's not what I meant to do
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On December 08 2015 05:45 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 22:53 disformation wrote:Hmm... yeah I think I remember you calling out HtS on D1. But here you are "only" slightly suspicious... and what is a little scum lean between good partners? On December 01 2015 21:45 Fidei86 wrote:
@Rels
I have looked over HTS' posts, and I am more okay with #209 now that I've read it a few times. There's nothing particularly objectionable in there.
At #219, I disagree with her read on the Palmar / Shining interaction. There is something very strange about Shining's progression, and HTS just skates past it.
She then at #224, #237 and #246 goes forward and then back on on Trfel. She asks Shining about people other than Palmar, but noticeably doesn't ask Palmar about people other than Shining.
I know that HTS is very much a fan of Palmar's scum play. I know that she has previously had him as a coach and that she generally speaks highly of him as a player. It is strange to me that she almost specifically avoids interacting with him, or making any comments about him. Honestly, if she can't read him, it seems like the rest of us don't have a chance.
None of the above is a guaranteed scum-tell. But I find it somewhat suspicious. Town HTS nitpicks as well, but I just always get the sense that she is going somewhere with her thoughts. That seems lacking to me. Still want to look at your whole filter and progression on HtS later tonight. The thing is: someone had to bus her. From my POV two someones have bussed HtS and I am going to find out who. Disfo I think you fundamentally misunderstand what bussing is. Bussing is where one mafia player actively works to get HTS lynched. The only people who really worked on the HTS lynch actively were NM, DYH and me. Oh and Palmar, but he's flipped town. If any of us were mafia, that would be a bus. The fact is that it was plainly obvious that she was going to get lynched once Alex, Palmar and I basically decided it. Lots of the rest of you voted for her, but just voting for a scum is not the same as bussing. Your logic is just totally wrong here.
I actually thought bussing was just voting as well, didn't matter how active the person was tbh.
In newbie 13, I didn't actively work to get my partner lynched, in fact when it was clear he was getting lynched, I tagged on right at the end - but was accused (correctly) of bussing my teammate because I did so at the end and did dick all to solve towards his lynch.
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http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Bussing
Bussing
Bussing is the act of distancing yourself from your scum partners, usually by helping to lynch them (and hopefully playing a major role in convincing others that they are worthy to be lynched). The term "bussing" comes from the phrase "to throw under the bus", which means sacrificing them to gain credibility. The 'bussee' is the player being thrown under the bus, and the 'busser' is the one doing it. The effectiveness of this technique varies, mostly due to the fact that it has been around practically since the beginning of the game of Mafia. The main reason it is successful (when done correctly) is because there is absolutely no way to know positively whether bussing has occurred, or whether the suspicion on the busser's part was legitimate, and coming from a Pro-town viewpoint.
Why bussing works
Bussing works because (if done correctly) it distances the players doing it to each other sufficiently that nobody (or at least, nobody but the smartest players) will ever suspect that they are both scum in the same faction. The reasoning applies that if the bussee is actually lynched; the busser is considered to be obviously pro-town. Because, of course, why would a Mafia member try to get his own scum partner lynched? And thus, WIFOM ensues.
How to spot bussing
Suspicion commonly arises when someone is suddenly lynched for what seem like minor or spurious reasons, and yet flips scum, because it may be indicative that one of the major proponents of their lynch is actually one of their scum partners.
I mean using this definition, I think Fecalfeast would fall most guilty under this (earliest vote, not as active as me or DYH), Trfel and LS both held out on HTS for the longest time before just voting her and there was hardly any resistance to that lynch, and I think Palmar and Shining just piled on at the end, but I think Shining was afk most of phase, and Palmar flipped town.
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EBWOP - Fecalfeast would fall most guilty as he was the first BUT Trfel and LS had or showed doubt on HTS and then didn't bother try to fight it.
All three would be liable for voting HTS for poor reasons or spurious as defined in mafiascum
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But then the first paragraph says "playing a major role"......eh I must be missing something here.
Honestly I've heard it used in multiple ways.
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At the moment, I'm inclined to think disformation is bad rather than mafia based on that exchange but I don't think Fidei's questioning him on this makes him mafia. Probably more likely town. Eh, back to Fidei's filter.
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Rels to answer your question on LS - I have read from the point of my main exchange with him, pges 7-9 of his filter can be summarised
(1) inflating the filter with useless comments (not even part of alignment determining conversation or even afk comments)
(2) parroting (examples post 1635)
(3) 1450 to 1478 is an example of asking for information and not really doing anything of it
This is insane for me. The NKs exonerate LS, but at the same time it is mindboggling this guy is doing dick all and people are ignoring him.
His filter is 1000% mafia. Something isn't right.
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Like I really honestly feel that everything after the exchange with HTS right before her lynch was posting just to post.
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LS tries to interact with HTS end of day 2.....tries to get information from her.
meh fuck it, probably not alignment indicative anyhow. if LS is somehow town, he really can't do dick all because she clearly evades his question (Alex is being Alex, and leaves it at that), if he's mafia, he doesn't need to (and obviously really doesn't).
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moving to fidei
going to focus exclusively on the evolvement of the LS read first....
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James - LS read evolvement
Part 1
On December 01 2015 09:01 Fidei86 wrote:
So that people know, the people in the game I know best are Half the Sky and Rels. I've been town with both, supervised both when I GMed and was Mafia with Rels once. I also have played with a lot of the rest of you before, including Moosy, Lightning Strike, Onegu and Damdred. I don't know DYH, trfel, dis, Kush or Palmar very well.
first post - important for context.
On December 01 2015 18:42 Fidei86 wrote:
Lightning Strike's entrance seems way over the top to me, especially for him. Usually he comes in and posts some relatively anodyne 1-liners, whereas here he came in with a big long paragraph attacking someone (Trfel I think) for calling him out earlier. In my experience, town LS is much more relaxed and jokey, until he starts getting attacked seriously (which I don't think had happened by that point). Then again, LS is primo lynch-bait D1, so I'll try and avoid getting too tunnelled for now.
tone read indicates mafia. is hesistant because he might be misread a bit.
Below is part of the list post - edited for brevity
On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote:
Mafia
LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O
Useless
Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard"
Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post.
DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read.
Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised.
A side note and a few critical questions to ask about James.
I think this is what Rels was talking about. No problem with opting to policy lynch, although from my context (see first post where Fidei says he has played with Moosy) and experience (in my last newbie Moosy martyred and almost got lynched as vigilante) and when I obsed Newbie 12, (town) HTS pushed him in that game and he almost got himself lynched but then she turned around, caught a scumslip and ultimately saved Moosy, who was town. In Newbie 13, where I was mafia, he set himself up poorly day 1, and then he got modkilled.
The potential issue I have here is whether we should hold an expectation that James should have KNOWN that Moosy plays like this. You can argue him wanting to lynch Moosy is a copout based on his own admitted experience with Moosy and whether he should have known how Moosy plays.
From my own memory, I think James was in Newbie 12, I obsed it. I know we had 14 together, but Moosy was mafia, and swindled us all. I don't think James was in 13, where Moosy was town and I was mafia, and I don't think he was in 17. IDK.
Potential scum motivation if and only if the expectation holds that he should have known Moosy better. Disclaimer: I have not researched appropriate evidence in the database.
On December 03 2015 07:17 Fidei86 wrote:
Like I'd vote LS over most of the rest of the players - but Moosy is a disgrace this game, and if he doesn't take this game seriously we shouldn't take him seriously.
So so far, a clear scum push on LS, with the Moosy read v expectation caveat. That was through end of cycle 1.
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On December 08 2015 06:24 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 06:11 NocturneMage wrote:
Rels to answer your question on LS - I have read from the point of my main exchange with him, pges 7-9 of his filter can be summarised
(1) inflating the filter with useless comments (not even part of alignment determining conversation or even afk comments)
(2) parroting (examples post 1635)
(3) 1450 to 1478 is an example of asking for information and not really doing anything of it
This is insane for me. The NKs exonerate LS, but at the same time it is mindboggling this guy is doing dick all and people are ignoring him.
His filter is 1000% mafia. Something isn't right. LS is playing like that. I have a hard time reading him normally, I pretended he was obvious town the two games I was scum and he was town, but he looked super scummy to me. The key thing is: LS has a hard time lying and playing as scum. Him screaming at EOD + poping and making comment about stuff is town indicative, as is both Damdred and Palmar saying he is town.
Alright, you know what? I'm going to just take a lap of faith here and trust you people on this. I'm also going to try and delve into the database just to absolutely be sure if we're in a lylo situation and it's me and him still alive with whoever else.
To me him making useless comments tells me that he's having a hard time playing as scum, he can't drive the thread forward.
I mean if we get endgamed and LS turns out to be mafia (or if he flips mafia for whatever reason) I am honestly going to be raging at EVERYONE - and I MEAN EVERYONE - in the post game for meta that could be broken or easily faked.
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ebwop - LEAP of faith here, not lap of faith
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EPT
