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On December 05 2015 03:18 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 03:15 disformation wrote:On December 05 2015 02:50 Fidei86 wrote:On December 05 2015 02:44 NocturneMage wrote:On December 05 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:
And you Rels also agree with me that Trfel is (likely) mafia as well, is there a case on him, and if so, what page? EBWOP - Rels, why is Palmar town? Did anyone here play with Alex in his last Newbie game? Yes. I also played with him in NSM13, where he was scum. So if you have a question, please feel free to ask.  Also: super lol @ Palmar =D In the last game I played with him he was like a mild-mannered small town lawyer (he was cop). This game he comes out like a Jack Russell on meth. It's just so different. But he did say after our game he wanted to work on getting his reads listened to. Was wondering how it compares to the last game.
In NSM17 he was also pretty mild-mannered, logical, methodical and put a lot of work into the game. I think he had one of the longest filters overall. So yeah, he is more aggressive this game.
In NSM13 where he was the godfather his filter was 3 pages long. We lynched him day 3. He was barely posting and interacting with ppl at all. Link to his filter from that game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/490503-newbie-student-mafia-xiii?user=NocturneMage
So despite replacing into this N1 and claiming not to have much time to play the first two days, his filter is already nearly double the amount of his whole mafia game.
So... he either is a lot more aggressive this game, because he is really 100% on HtS and wants to lynch her, or I dunno, he decided to go balls to the walls as mafia this time.
I think the first one is more likely.
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On December 05 2015 03:27 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 03:18 Fidei86 wrote:On December 05 2015 03:15 disformation wrote:On December 05 2015 02:50 Fidei86 wrote:On December 05 2015 02:44 NocturneMage wrote:On December 05 2015 02:43 NocturneMage wrote:
And you Rels also agree with me that Trfel is (likely) mafia as well, is there a case on him, and if so, what page? EBWOP - Rels, why is Palmar town? Did anyone here play with Alex in his last Newbie game? Yes. I also played with him in NSM13, where he was scum. So if you have a question, please feel free to ask. Also: super lol @ Palmar =D In the last game I played with him he was like a mild-mannered small town lawyer (he was cop). This game he comes out like a Jack Russell on meth. It's just so different. But he did say after our game he wanted to work on getting his reads listened to. Was wondering how it compares to the last game. In NSM17 he was also pretty mild-mannered, logical, methodical and put a lot of work into the game. I think he had one of the longest filters overall. So yeah, he is more aggressive this game. In NSM13 where he was the godfather his filter was 3 pages long. We lynched him day 3. He was barely posting and interacting with ppl at all. Link to his filter from that game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/490503-newbie-student-mafia-xiii?user=NocturneMageSo despite replacing into this N1 and claiming not to have much time to play the first two days, his filter is already nearly double the amount of his whole mafia game. So... he either is a lot more aggressive this game, because he is really 100% on HtS and wants to lynch her, or I dunno, he decided to go balls to the walls as mafia this time. I think the first one is more likely.
Also look at how much his first posts in his mafia game are super awkward and "no clue what to actually say here".
I think he enjoys playing town far more than scum.
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On December 05 2015 03:44 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 03:37 Rels wrote:
Trfel: because if he's scum pushing town he will be killed as soon as Hts flips town. So why isn't he scum pushing scum? Except for the activity, NocturneMage's filter seems really bad. I'm not sure how to reconcile the two. I'm sure that if you make that many posts in that short of a time, town would make some errors. But he seems to forget who he's scumreading, and is just throwing reasons to scumread everyone. The way he's so focused on randomly (imo nonsensically) pushing four people (with read progressions that don't make sense) and completely ignores everyone else without discussing them at all doesn't feel towny at all. But that's not really mafia motivation, and is probably unreliable. But so is activity. I think that townreading NocturneMage for activity alone is really bad here. He played one scumgame and hated it, and now he's in this game and is pushing things really aggressively and posting a ton. How could he be scum here? Hm... I absolutely hated my first scum game and barely played at all. In my second scum game, I destroyed town and was a top townread for basically everyone most of the game. There are other factors too, like he finally gets to play with Half the Sky, he's clearly excited to play mafia again (the game, not alignment), that could potentially cause the higher activity as mafia.
Hmmm... not that you aren't right here, but I can't see scum!NM posting something like this:
On December 05 2015 00:25 NocturneMage wrote:
I also heavily believe LS is Mafia. He's going out after Dani.
If Dani flips town, I am giving her my next two weeks' salary and I'll take a mislynch because I am that fucking bad at understanding someone I know extremely well in real life.
There is zero fucking chance she is town. Zero.
Rels, I can understand you being hesitant because I'm not being "analytical" but this is HTS we are talking about here. She is a weasel when she is Mafia.
Don't think scum!NM would just go for the yolo misslynch on town!HtS, for the fun, and then just get lynched in return...
unless both are scum. That way he would get tons of town cred if we lynch her today and she flips red.
*scratches head*
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On December 05 2015 00:30 LightningStrike wrote:NM read my past games please? It will make you understand me as a player better O_o I had linked you some of my past games(including all my scum games):
Scrolled through these while eatings.
Observations:
You don't like being scum.
Your filter is really short when scum.
Your latest scum game (the first one on top) was kinda depressing. =p
Tone wise I'd rather put you on the town side of things.
But I don't feel like I really want to look into these games too hard, when we also have a game going on. 
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Okay. Heads up:
As per my pre game excuse I won't have time to play tomorrow. I am at my parents' in the afternoon and go to a friends' straight from there. Will miss the deadline by an hour or something.
I might get a few phone posts in here and there, but don't count on it.
Will be here for another like 4 hours, so if you have questions: shoot now before you regret it.
So I am currently at:
town
Palmar
Rels
The Shining
town leans
NoctuneMage
FF
LightningStrike
scum
Half the Sky
DoYouHas
wtf bananaboat
Trfel
Super sleeping on and need to read the filter
Fidei86
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On December 05 2015 07:42 NocturneMage wrote:
hang on a second, why are you townreading ls?
On December 05 2015 05:20 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 00:30 LightningStrike wrote:NM read my past games please? It will make you understand me as a player better O_o I had linked you some of my past games(including all my scum games): Scrolled through these while eatings. Observations: You don't like being scum. Your filter is really short when scum. Your latest scum game (the first one on top) was kinda depressing. =p Tone wise I'd rather put you on the town side of things. But I don't feel like I really want to look into these games too hard, when we also have a game going on.
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On December 05 2015 07:44 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 07:42 NocturneMage wrote:
hang on a second, why are you townreading ls? Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 05:20 disformation wrote:On December 05 2015 00:30 LightningStrike wrote:NM read my past games please? It will make you understand me as a player better O_o I had linked you some of my past games(including all my scum games): Scrolled through these while eatings. Observations: You don't like being scum. Your filter is really short when scum. Your latest scum game (the first one on top) was kinda depressing. =p Tone wise I'd rather put you on the town side of things. But I don't feel like I really want to look into these games too hard, when we also have a game going on.
It is not a slam dunk set in stone thing, but when looking at his past games, I feel this one is looking more in line with his town games. Especially compared to his kinda depressing last scum game.
So more likely to be town!LS than scum!LS.
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On December 05 2015 08:12 Fecalfeast wrote:
Ok am at work what's up boys I see hts still hasn't popped up? Guess she gave up?
Hmmm... I think her last post was at start of N1 when kush flipped? So possible. Currently looking at Fidei86's filter.
Any questions for me while I am around?
Have you looked at DYH, yet?
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On December 05 2015 08:39 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 08:27 Fecalfeast wrote:I think the fidei palmar interaction has palmar looking towny while fidei came out looking a little worse to me. One thing I remember that I'll dig up is On December 04 2015 22:59 Palmar wrote:
You're overthinking (possibly suspiciously?)
You said it best yourself, now we kill hts. On December 04 2015 23:02 Fidei86 wrote:
Lets leave it there and see what everyone else has to say. Don't want to hijack the thread totally. Which looks a little too much like he's trying to avoid palmar expanding further on his possible suspicions and/or not wanting to slip up and further those suspicions. didn't fidei say something along the lines of not wanting to spam the thread? could work in paralle with hijacking the thread? although I can see where you are coming from, I just remembered fidei's first post. he doesn't seem to like spam.
Yeah, his first post said he didn't want ppl to spam the thread.
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On December 05 2015 08:37 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 07:43 Half the Sky wrote:
I got through LS's Drams filter, he had school/schoolwork in that game too but had way more pointed reads. Shining was spot on. I had a moment of doubt that maybe, just maybe Half the Sky is town. I checked LightningStrike's Day 1 from Battle of the Drams mafia and I did not see the difference described above (compared to this game). Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 07:28 The Shining wrote:On December 03 2015 07:25 Half the Sky wrote:
This is LS and he generally is a very emotional player. I know others can fake emotion but this IS LS.
LS, what do you think of Trfel and what do you think of Damdred? Talk to us for cripe's sake if you are town, you have half an hour.
Let me check Warcraft 3 since I am assuming that's the game that Shining is referring to? Drams is the game. And comparing the filters from the two games, there is a lot more reads and content from him in Drams then here over 2 pages. And his questions were much more pointed. The Shining also said that LightningStrike's Battle of the Drams Mafia filter had more reads and was more pointed than this game. Here is his filter. Can I get a fourth opinion? I counted 1 scumread on Day 1 in both filters, just this game he made the read (basically) himself and in that game it was purely sheeped. I didn't look too much at town reads, but I felt it was fairly similar (do note that Battle of the Drams was probably twice as long Day 1 as this game was, thus much more opportunity for reads). The question is, am I right, and if so, how possible is it for town to interpret this filter the other way?
Uh, was looking at the first 5 pages of his filter... which reads? Like I saw very few town reads and his scum reads where more like "I could lynch one of those three". So not pointed at all...
But I found this gem:
On October 03 2015 07:36 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2015 07:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Seriously what teh fuck is wrong with people?
"LightningStrike could you read the thread before you post because... you know that's how this game is played?"
"Every time I tried to talk to Rayn I felt like I hitting a brickwall voer and over and just gave up trying to talk since he so tunneled."
BULLSHIT BULLSHIT BULLSHIT"! YOU TREATED ME THE SAME FUCKING WAY YOU DID WHEN I DIDN'T READ THE FUCKING OP RIGHT IN OUR LAST GAME AND YOU EXPECT ME TO BE SCUM FOR THE SAME FUCKING THING I DID AS TOWN? JESUS CHRIST YOU'RE BAD
So he DOES that when he is town...
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On December 05 2015 09:32 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 09:13 disformation wrote:On December 05 2015 08:37 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 07:43 Half the Sky wrote:
I got through LS's Drams filter, he had school/schoolwork in that game too but had way more pointed reads. Shining was spot on. I had a moment of doubt that maybe, just maybe Half the Sky is town. I checked LightningStrike's Day 1 from Battle of the Drams mafia and I did not see the difference described above (compared to this game). On December 03 2015 07:28 The Shining wrote:On December 03 2015 07:25 Half the Sky wrote:
This is LS and he generally is a very emotional player. I know others can fake emotion but this IS LS.
LS, what do you think of Trfel and what do you think of Damdred? Talk to us for cripe's sake if you are town, you have half an hour.
Let me check Warcraft 3 since I am assuming that's the game that Shining is referring to? Drams is the game. And comparing the filters from the two games, there is a lot more reads and content from him in Drams then here over 2 pages. And his questions were much more pointed. The Shining also said that LightningStrike's Battle of the Drams Mafia filter had more reads and was more pointed than this game. Here is his filter. Can I get a fourth opinion? I counted 1 scumread on Day 1 in both filters, just this game he made the read (basically) himself and in that game it was purely sheeped. I didn't look too much at town reads, but I felt it was fairly similar (do note that Battle of the Drams was probably twice as long Day 1 as this game was, thus much more opportunity for reads). The question is, am I right, and if so, how possible is it for town to interpret this filter the other way? Uh, was looking at the first 5 pages of his filter... which reads? Like I saw very few town reads and his scum reads where more like "I could lynch one of those three". So not pointed at all... But I found this gem: On October 03 2015 07:36 LightningStrike wrote:On October 03 2015 07:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Seriously what teh fuck is wrong with people?
"LightningStrike could you read the thread before you post because... you know that's how this game is played?"
"Every time I tried to talk to Rayn I felt like I hitting a brickwall voer and over and just gave up trying to talk since he so tunneled."
BULLSHIT BULLSHIT BULLSHIT"! YOU TREATED ME THE SAME FUCKING WAY YOU DID WHEN I DIDN'T READ THE FUCKING OP RIGHT IN OUR LAST GAME AND YOU EXPECT ME TO BE SCUM FOR THE SAME FUCKING THING I DID AS TOWN? JESUS CHRIST YOU'RE BAD So he DOES that when he is town... The second quote was after the point where The Shining stopped reading, though. So you can't guarantee that he would have seen it. How would you compare LightningStrike's filter (pre-yelling) this game to the Day 1 (and only the Day 1) of his filter last game? And thanks a bunch for reading through that and sharing your thoughts
np, dude.
Hmm... his first post this game has like more reads than his whole D1 in Drams?
Though he posts a very similar post a bit later in Drams. Didn't he arrive a bit late in the thread this game?
Otherwise with looking at the context of Drams (117 pages D1, not reading that), I don't see any glaring differences in his posts, when compared to this. He has a pretty conversationalist style and doesn't seem to do cases, so from just reading his filter it is not easy to see the entire process. If you think I missed something, please feel free to point that out.
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I guess disformation is probably town, but he could be mafia. However, I'm assuming that he is town.
okay? Can I be a planar dragon, too? I've always wanted to be a planar dragon!
Well, that post will take a while to properly read and write an answer to. Will take a shower, get myself something to drink and try to write something up before I fall asleep (it is already 2 am here).
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On December 05 2015 11:07 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 11:01 Trfel wrote:On December 05 2015 10:55 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 05 2015 10:29 Trfel wrote:On December 05 2015 10:06 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 04 2015 10:51 disformation wrote:Too make my argument a bit more readable: - scum is hiding in the middleground
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 08:30 DoYouHas wrote:I don't like a lot about Trfel right now. I don't like that he made a mountain out of a molehill with Damdred and did a snap OMGUS. I don't like how he is sliding between sheeping Palmar and Rels. I don't like how he is complaining that Damdred won't work with him, which should not matter unless his read did a 180 and he is confident Damdred is town, and I really don't like this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote:
I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. A strong scumread on me with no explanation, even when pressed. Maybe he just doesn't have a good explanation at this point. Side note, he complains that Damdred won't work with him but refuses to work with Damdred when he gets pressed on his reasoning for attacking me. The conciliatory nature of some of Trfels posts gave me pause since he was so bullheaded with his scumgame last time but I would definitely put him top of my list at the moment. I get the town feels from a lot of the movers and shakers this game which makes me think that scum are hiding in the middle ground, so that is where I'm going to look next. P.S. I wasn't trying excuse a lack of posting. I was pointing out that there are large stretches of time where I cannot post. People seemed to be jumping on the wagon simply because I was afk.
- Was reading the middleground ppl (Fid,HtS,LS,disfo), but haven't got anything out of it
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote:
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
- "Got no scumreads" (really?) "so i am sheeping town" "btw disfo totally town now"
+ Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote:
What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
Wat? I have pointed this problem out, Rels has pointed this out, but nothing happens. can you flesh out why you think this progression is scummy any further? I'm looking at this filter and while it's a little short on portion size it's looking pretty well explained. Not to mention the fact that if HTS flips red here the fact remains that he brought her up as a potential target before NM + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote:
hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two.
although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? I'm clearly not playing this game right because I actually really, really like what disformation says here. But I didn't care that much when he first said it  Basically, DoYouHas (in the middle of Day 1 ish) stated that he was going to take a look at the people in the "middle" (because he felt that the most active/vocal people were town). Fair enough. He looked at Fidei86, Half the Sky, LightningStrike, and disformation, and didn't get anything out of it. I'm not sure if this means he didn't get any scumreads out of this or if he didn't get any reads at all from this, if I can catch DoYouHas sometime I'd like to ask this. From this, two things happened. First, he came up with a townread on disformation (because he was sheeping the wagon of his townreads, and mentioned disformation). Second, he got a scumread and case on Half the Sky Night 1, despite not getting much scummy (presumably) from her filter earlier. Hm, I guess this makes sense. Maybe I need to look more closely but let's assume there's no shenanigans tomorrow and HTS flips red. What does that make you think of DYH? I'm fairly suspicious of DoYouHas. I'm not really sure what implications a Half the Sky scum flip would have on DoYouHas. Do you have any thoughts about NocturneMage or anyone else that you want to talk about? DYH brought up HTS as possibler scum before NM and NM referenced DYH in his post calling HTS scummy. I think NM's entrance set a bit of a scummy tone initially but his recent postings have been pointed and he seems to be following a logical thought progression. He's obviously very confident in his HTS read which is why I'm sheeped all over that. I think NM is towny though I'm pretty allergic to deep reading right now. also he has 5 pages after replacing in night 1, is NM known to be a high effort scum?
In NM's only scum game so far, where he was the godfather and got lynched on D3, he had a 3 page filter.
And if HtS flips scum (probably will), I will look at the votes, their timings and the reasons for the vote.
Yes, DYH did bring up HtS first. But this was after he had previously found nothing in her filter and MD got replaced by NM. NM also mentioned that HtS is good at coaching. Since DYH case on HtS is of a much higher quality than his previous posts, I could see him being coached on that.
So yeah, I think this has a good chance of being a bus.
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On December 05 2015 09:54 Trfel wrote:I think I am going to (for now) make the assumption that Rels is town because I need him to be town. And disformation, too. The following is to Rels and disformation. + Show Spoiler +Step 1: I'm town + Show Spoiler +Hi, I'm town.
Rels, Remember that first game we played together? The Newbie game? Where I was mafia with WaveofShadow and we dominated? I looked really good for most of that game, and I was scum.
The game after that, I didn't play for ~two days, nearly got mislynched a few times I think, and ended up completely throwing the game for town. And the last two town games I've played, I was a lynch candidate throughout (though never seriously a wagon).
My point being that for some players (I'd say most), how "good" or "bad" they look (aka thread standing/status) doesn't really show their alignment.
In this game, I have been scumread a ton for my read progression at the start of Day 2. My play at this time was bad, because I made night kill analysis that had too many assumptions and was too likely to be wrong. And I changed my reads based on this analysis. However, there is no mafia motivation for doing this and at face value it does not say anything about my alignment.
Having just come off of a game as scum, I'm obviously town in this game because I often have trouble playing town after being scum, much less being mafia. That argument aside, my reads are based on completely different things this game than they are as scum. It's easy for me to look through a filter and call the person scum because of it, it's a lot harder to go through and analyze the mafia motivation and the ways that they could be town. I realize that this is self-meta and I am aware of it, but two things. First, I don't think it's something I can effectively replicate as mafia (though I've never tried). Second, it's extremely town motivated; you can evaluate my read progression for yourself, I think it's obvious that I am putting critical thought into the game and trying to consider things from every angle.
Other than the aforementioned night kill analysis, I think that my play has been fairly solid. I haven't really been scumread for anything other than the night kill analysis (and my read changes caused by it) and "playing to my scum meta", both arguments I have dismissed. Step 2: I think that too many people are mafia + Show Spoiler +I think that DoYouHas could maybe be mafia, his activity has seemed really low, however the case on Half the Sky (assuming for the moment that Half the Sky is scum) feels genuine. I don't have as much problem with the "I got nothing on Half the Sky" then "here's why Half the Sky is mafia" because his biggest point came after the first thing was said, but I need to check and see.
I'm assuming that you are town because I am.
I haven't looked at Fidei86 yet, but his activity has been really high lately. I've heard people use meta to say that high activity makes him 100% town, however that's not too reliable and I should look.
I think that Half the Sky is mafia.
I think that LightningStrike is town for a few reasons, but there's a small chance he could be mafia.
I think that The Shining is maybe town, but I haven't looked at him in a while. His play seemed very different after everyone stopped pushing him, I haven't really felt his thread presence much (though I could easily be wrong on both of these points). I liked his townread of me, but given that everyone else thinks the opposite this might actually suggest that he is mafia. And finally, I have no clue how he concluded that LightningStrike is scum in this game due to comparison with his Drams mafia filter.
I guess disformation is probably town, but he could be mafia. However, I'm assuming that he is town.
I think that NocturneMage is sort of mafia.
I think that Fecalfeast is sort of town, but he could be mafia.
I think that Palmar may be mafia.
Basically, that's seven people I think may be mafia with a reasonable enough chance (and that's not including my assumption that you two are town). Which is way too many. It is probably safe imo to consider Fecalfeast as town, leaving six people: Fidei86 (just because I haven't looked at him), Half the Sky, The Shining, NocturneMage, DoYouHas, and Palmar. Which still feels like a lot, given that I'm not completely sold on everyone else.
This makes it really hard for me to be confident in my reads because I'm suspicious of so many people? It makes me feel like I'm doing something wrong, like I'm stretching on my reasons to scumread people. I need some help/advice here? Step 3: I think that NocturneMage is mafia. I'm either right about this with great reasons, or I'm wrong, all my reasons are garbage, and NocturneMage is the most obvious town in the game. There's nothing in between, and this annoys me. + Show Spoiler +First of all, NocturneMage has been really really good at making himself look good and making me look really really bad. I don't know if this is indicative of him being town or mafia, but I need to say this first.
I feel that I've raised several good points against NocturneMage, and he's really good at seemingly dismissing them (without actually dismissing them) in a way that makes me look really bad (objectively bad, not necessarily alignment indicative, usually). He's able to do this because I've been saying way too much, and I haven't been focusing on the important things. Therefore, he's able to make huge arguments over things that don't matter, and ignore the important points. Or manipulate the argument into one that can't be resolved for either side. I'll probably take another try at explaining my reasons for scumreading NocturneMage soon, but making concise arguments that can't be argued into an argument that you can't prove (to everyone, not just yourself) are difficult for me.
Raising a ton of points instead of a few key ones is a really horrible habit of mine.
Basically, two questions.
1. Do my arguments for scumreading NocturneMage make any sense? Or am I completely on another planet? If the latter, then I'm probably just very wrong and a re-explanation doesn't change this.
2. Is NocturneMage obviously town for other reasons (namely, activity and thread presence) that no other argument could significantly change this? I personally don't think so, but I realize that I am biased.
Note that I still feel that my case against MoosyDoosy earlier was extremely strong, perhaps not a 99.9% read but an 80% read or so (MoosyDoosy's post-deadline posts don't fit with my mafia mindset for him, I can't ignore this). However, since Damdred didn't think so, and Damdred's a really good player, I have more doubt about that. Last time I was town, I made what I thought was a really solid case and Damdred completely disagreed and I was right, but Damdred could very well be right this time. What influence, if any, do you think MoosyDoosy's play has on determining NocturneMage's alignment? Step 4: Other people + Show Spoiler +What about the other players in the game? Unfortunately I'm busy and don't have time to go over everyone myself, but I'm mostly looking at Fidei86, The Shining, DoYouHas, and Palmar (excluding Half the Sky because she's very likely mafia, and NocturneMage because he was discussed earlier).
Do you feel that any of them can be put out of the "suspicious" range for now, and why? Do any of them deserve more attention? For the record, I'm spoilering this for only you two because no one else has shown willingness to work with me. Except for Fecalfeast, who so far has been too lazy to do much real work, so he doesn't count for this. It doesn't help town if I put out a ton of text about reads that I'm not sure about when no one else cares to talk about it with me. If there are any statements that you disagree with here, please explain. I'm very wrong, very often. Same if you want something to be elaborated on.
TBH I am going to keep this a bit short, cause getting tired.
Part 1:
I feel ya, I played a horrible town D1/N1 of last game. I seriously felt like I had to relearn the game. So someone being bad is not necessarily AI. But last game you were constantly wrong and scum. So you can't just 100% ignore your badness factor. As for your arguments/cases I remember geript having some advise on that post game and/or in the obs QT. Hope I get the time to re-read that and look at your arguments/cases again. To be fair in your scum game they were like "uh... nah whatever, that doesn't make them scum". Here they make a bit more sense. xD
Part 2:
I think you might have the problem of looking at the trees too much here. As you were implying with the badness in part 1. nobody is the perfect town player and if you look hard enough you will find scum indicators in every play/filter. Likewise the filter of a scum player will not only consist of scum trees. So maybe you need to take a step back and try to look at the bigger picture? That might help in reading some of these players.
You also sound frustrated in general, so taking a bit of a break might be a good thing to do, too.
Part 3:
Okay, the problem with NM is following:
Does he look like his town game? No.
Does he look like his mafia game? No.
Some of the stuff NM did this game seem scummy, like his entry. But there are a bunch of posts that also look very town. So for me, while I am not 100% of it, I think it is more likely that this is a town NM that is 1000% sure on HtS alignment. When I try to look at his overall play, that makes more sense than him being mafia.
Also notice that he tries to be very active despite having not much time. He is simultaneous pushing HtS and trying to catch up to the thread and giving us updates to his thoughts while he reads, so we can actually follow his thoughts...
Unlike the ones, of say... DYH
Part 4:
I am sleeping a bit on Fidei86 too, was looking through his filter earlier, but it had no wow effect (in either direction) on me.
Palmar fell off quite hard after D1, but I think his forest is still mostly town plants.
The Shining hasn't been here for a while, but I think he was pretty town D1... or at least that is what I remember.
DYH? Well he is one of my two scum reads.
But I hope we will get more information from the votes today.
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phone post:
yes, NM is not a strong read, which is why he is obly a lean. same goes for my other leans.
hm, I might need to look at some timestamps regarding HtS and DYH again. But I still think his D1 was very scummy and him being coached to bus scum!hts looks very plausible to me.
@palmar:
if you are still here:
any thoughts on today other than NM being a sexy beast and half the scum?
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Yes! 1 down, 2 to go!
On December 06 2015 08:37 The Shining wrote:
No shock there. Glad to hear you're at least feeling better, HtS.
I have thoughts. But I need to read some stuff before I put all of them out there.
I think DYH is super towny. Especially those last few posts. Rehashing Damdreds reads and then comparing them to kush showed a concerted effort to figure things out. That and upon rereading Damdred, he didn't misrepresent those reads, nor make up scumreads.
Trfel is strong town and I'm okay with that. I'm thinking he's about as wrong on NM bussing as he was on Damdred but that's another thing I need to re-read.
I'm dropping my suspicion on Fidei. The more I read him, the more town he feels. And maybe we do just have a mindmeld going, I need to get over the paranoia from that.
Palmar is middle ground but a filter check is needed there, too. At least one scum obviously bussed but his recent posting, although not his strongest work this game, felt like town pressed for time.
NM feels pretty locked in town at this point. He drove the hts lynch home off of a good metaread but he's also questioning and fleshing out his other reads.
LS recent responses feel more like LS. Very innocent, carefree, does rely heavily on Meta but I like his interaction with DYH, too.
POE leaves me with the really bad outlier vote in disfo(this is another one whose filter and other games I have to revisit). But he's not lynching scum d2, pushing dyh hard all day and he himself calls himself waffleboy. That stubbornness and refusal to get off of DYH in the hopes he could shift the lynch off of HtS has me thinking he gave himself away. Me to come soon.
Also FF. He's not lazy uncaring town FF. From the moment he entered the game, he's been making an effort to try and look productive, then uses Fallout to bail out before he can get asked too much. He keeps asking others to point him in a direction instead of scum hunting for himself. And he promises a lot of content but he's only delivering easy, low effort content.
I think that's our last 2 lynches to win the game going forward. Discuss?
I am trying to be less waffly this game on purpose since I always get scum read for that a bunch in my town games. Seems that doesn't work either...
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Well the idea is to use the extra time to gather information / make reads and force the mafia to reveal information by shooting ppl, while denying them misslynches.
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got ppl over, so currently indisposed. try got get back here soon(ish), as I want to look into a bunch of things.
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On December 07 2015 03:28 LightningStrike wrote:
Any thoughtson Tfrel vs NM?
Nope. Haven't really read what happened around EoD.
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EPT
