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I am currently living in a world where: MoosyDoosy, Farah, geript, Trfel and me are town. So what happens? Nearly all the conflict and posts are town on town, which also explains why the thread feels so dead at times. I also still think ritoky and NocturneMage are town for their posting. Which leaves FF, Breshke, The Shining and Eversince by PoE. Well, since town is at each others throat all the time, why post? And I really think that Breshke has a good chance of flipping scum. | ||
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On November 19 2015 10:31 NocturneMage wrote: also disformation.... from newbie 13, I was caught out as mafia on voting analysis. I am decently sure the way moosy's been playing he is probably town now. If that's the case, when both wagons are town, there's a decent shot to look at people who didn't give a shit about the lynch or who got lynched or for players that can hide it well, who had a "fake" reaction to try and get one player lynched over another or a bad reason given read progression. now farah's been cited for this, but who else would this apply? there were some isolated voters obviously and those people will always come into question but two of these are known town now. and eversince, who knows. Breshke parked his vote on MD relatively early and went to bed. FF yolo voted without catching up onto the thread. FF giving zero fucks: On November 18 2015 08:09 Fecalfeast wrote: I started reading it before i realized it was :59 and made a joke. Haven't read the pages I slept through yet tbh so I don't think any reads I have right now are useful. I think shining not sitting back and letting scott go to the gallows instead of making a big post seems towny to me but I haven't actually even read the post yet Breshke "reaction": On November 18 2015 13:32 Breshke wrote: Hi im here and catching up my keyboard is a bit wonky atm so i might be even more illiterate than normal. Moosey do you think I am town or mafia? | ||
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On November 19 2015 10:37 Trfel wrote: How did you arrive at FarahBlackwing being town? tinfoil + uncced blue Other great theories: She and MD are a scumteam and are competing on how hard they bullshit town into oblivion. | ||
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What if eversince is the real vet and not around to cc? Also going to stop ranting and grasping at straws like a madmen. Sry for cluttering up the thread... | ||
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 Should have gone to bed earlier yesterday. 13 hours of mafia after 4 hours of sleep might not have been the greatest of ideas. At least I now 100% believe the vet claim. So: ritoky, was worried when he fell off, but since he got back I only got town vibes, so he stays town. moosydoosy. Still not a fan of my sweetheart, but still think he is far more likely to flip town than scum. damdy. vet. trfel. in my tinfoil world he is town. him being the vig would make tons of sense to me. that being said, I am still confused by a few of his posts. I have a half finished filter dive on him saved somewhere, will look at that some more later. FF. Like null? I know he is supposed to be lazy as town, but I could easily see him as mafia coasting by at this point. Eversince. I also hope there were no problems with the surgery and stuff, but there aren't that many options left and that could bite town in the ass soon. I also remembered that we are supposed to have at least 5 posts per day/night cycle and get modkilled if we don't, as per the rules in the op. Though hoping for a replacement/modkill is probably not the safest/best way to handle this. Breshke. Okay, I admit the stuff I said yesterday about him parking his vote on MD, might just be because of timezones. Still high chance of flipping scum though, since I haven't seen anything that made my stomach tingly and the points from D1 still stand. The Shining. Still want to see a bunch more from him to decide. Not compelled in either direction atm, but the PoE is getting smaller... So yeah if the vigi is someone of the bottom 4 1/2 ppl in this list I would love for him to claim, since this would greatly improve our chances to hit mafia today. So imo we either deal with Eversince today, as damdy suggested or we lynch one of Breshke/FF. | ||
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On November 19 2015 23:19 NocturneMage wrote: I think if I had to lynch anyone and avoid the policy lynch (which it basically what it is) on Eversince, I would go for Breshke. Compared to Trfel, he seems less towny although I couldn't initially grasp from ritoky as for why he'd lynch Trfel over Breshke aside from him wanting to lynch Farah whose claim was scummy when it was made. I could understand Fecalfeast's vote on him for that reason although I mentioned that Breshke, the same thing mostly applies except the claim analysis. geript tried to get Breshke lynched d1 and now that we know geript is town and considering his type of read and my initial reservation on Breshke (talking around geript/VE), and geripts history of 30 games, I'm going to assume the meta read is more or less accurate or at the very least we know it was an honest thought from him. not to mention scum really fall off late game, and Breshke's last post irrespective of timezone was.... ....16 hours ago.... I'm looking at Breshke's posts from 1009 and onwards. He's saying disformation and farah are both scum. But they are both scumreading each other. Learnt the hard way from newbie 14 that there was some double bussing going on. there's no explaiantion from Breshke as to why he thinks they are on after each other and disformation has since been a bit more towny. If Farah's claim was true, and without a counterclaim, we have to proceed as if it is true, it was a poor decision, but at least Damdred has a strategy/conditions for when/if/how the vig should claim. I understand it. and this go? Breshke's pushes are a LOT weaker than round 1. he's not as invested in either of them. I think what trfel said is valid, let the moderators deal with Eversince and lynch Breshke unless there is a mechanical reason we have to deal with her now. (do we know if mods modkill or replace or does that even matter? no idea how that shit works.) Oh forgot you in my list. You are very much town and I very much agree with this. Also, if we believe in geripts meta read on Breshke. Shouldn't we also agree on his meta read on The Shining? Which would make The Shining town. Thus, if Trfel is indeed vigi or VT the scum team is: FF, Breshke, Eversince. Case closed. Let's get drunk. | ||
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On November 19 2015 23:31 NocturneMage wrote: I would avoid a full PoE team when we are one mislynch outside of mylo with a possible modkill. unless I am strategically off target, either go for the highest percentage of scum or go for the policy lynch. as for geript, to be honest....he was town but he could be wrong on people. the reason I suggested his read on Breshke was good is because Breshke's behaviour currently supports what he stated day 1 and it matched my initial concern on Breshke (avoiding the important issues). Yes. I agree. Breshke and Eversince are my prefered lynches for today. (note taht I am currently voting Breshke) I could be wrong on The Shining and Trfel, but the situation I outlned above is what currently makes the most sense to me. Which doesn't mean I will be unwilling to re-evaluate the situation depending on the flips. I can also totally see giving The Shining one more day to do more towny stuff. Kinda the same for FF actually, though I currently like The Shining more. For the Eversince thing: I'd like for Damdred and ritoky to explain to us newbs, what they think is best in this situation in great detail. I think that would be helpful.  | ||
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Also have to do a bit of IRL stuff, will be bach later. | ||
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For what it is worth: I played two games with scott. In both he got lynched D1. In one he was town in one he was mafia. In NSM9 where he was town, he played for a bit. Got scum read for it. Vanished, returned a few mins before deadline, gave a hard scum read on me and got lynched. In NSM10 where he was scum, he played for a bit. Got scum read for it. Vanished, never returned. Got lynched. I start to feel bad for always lynching him D1. I have no idea how a D2 scott looks like... But as a result Trfel's meta read on scott is super strange to me. =D | ||
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On November 20 2015 01:21 NocturneMage wrote: I'm going back for my second seminar. I want every person to comment on post 1203. I also just noticed that FF is straight up voting Trfel. As a result I feel more like Breshke/FF or Trfel/+1 (probably Eversince). I really really wish the vigi would claim since it will make this mess sooo much easier. -.- Will read your post carefully and comment on it after doing the rest of my chores. | ||
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On November 20 2015 01:20 NocturneMage wrote: Part 1 of 3: Trfel's expectation on Scott The link to geripts initial callout leads to another of your posts? And while we are at it: what is the so-called WIFOM/NK analysis? Can you explain, or at least post a link? On November 20 2015 01:20 NocturneMage wrote: Part 2 of 3: Trfel's case on VisceraEyes - misinformed or malicious Yeah, he was wrong on VE. But I have 0 clue as to how to figure out if he should have known better or not. You could play 100 games with sicklucker and still don't know how to read him. I have like 0 experience with VE, so I have no clue how hard/easy he is to read. On November 20 2015 01:20 NocturneMage wrote: but right now? if meta expectations hold and given that trfel has used meta at least once on geript this game (that post where he said "geript should know X" remember that?)....it's not looking good for trfel. Can you link that for me? I went through trfel's filter with a Strg+F on "geript" but wasn't able to find that. Wasn't he saying scott should now better about geript and that makes scott mafia? On November 20 2015 01:20 NocturneMage wrote: part 3 of 3: Trfel's defence of Breshke - does it make sense? Well, Trfel is imo the only one defending Breshke, so that is something good to keep around, but currently that is an unflipped association, which is bad, mkey. On November 20 2015 01:20 NocturneMage wrote: I hope you understand me. Negative.  Like you are trying to say that Trfel is wrong on purpose, but I don't see how the number of games he played with x or y should indicate at how good he is able to meta them. That being said I do not know how good of a player Trfel is. | ||
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ritoky when you are around could you please explain why? Thanks. Also: does that mean Trfel is your prefered lynch for today? | ||
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On November 19 2015 23:05 disformation wrote: Hi Damdred, Hi sicklucker Should have gone to bed earlier yesterday. 13 hours of mafia after 4 hours of sleep might not have been the greatest of ideas. At least I now 100% believe the vet claim. So: ritoky, was worried when he fell off, but since he got back I only got town vibes, so he stays town. moosydoosy. Still not a fan of my sweetheart, but still think he is far more likely to flip town than scum. damdy. vet. trfel. in my tinfoil world he is town. him being the vig would make tons of sense to me. that being said, I am still confused by a few of his posts. I have a half finished filter dive on him saved somewhere, will look at that some more later. FF. Like null? I know he is supposed to be lazy as town, but I could easily see him as mafia coasting by at this point. Eversince. I also hope there were no problems with the surgery and stuff, but there aren't that many options left and that could bite town in the ass soon. I also remembered that we are supposed to have at least 5 posts per day/night cycle and get modkilled if we don't, as per the rules in the op. Though hoping for a replacement/modkill is probably not the safest/best way to handle this. Breshke. Okay, I admit the stuff I said yesterday about him parking his vote on MD, might just be because of timezones. Still high chance of flipping scum though, since I haven't seen anything that made my stomach tingly and the points from D1 still stand. The Shining. Still want to see a bunch more from him to decide. Not compelled in either direction atm, but the PoE is getting smaller... So yeah if the vigi is someone of the bottom 4 1/2 ppl in this list I would love for him to claim, since this would greatly improve our chances to hit mafia today. So imo we either deal with Eversince today, as damdy suggested or we lynch one of Breshke/FF. To expand and update on my current read list: Town damdy uncc Vet. Came into the game and started to solve it right away. Also mentioned the Breshke/Trfel association before it was cool. Town. NocturneMage Look at his scum game in NSM13. Interactions: no. solving the case: no. activity: no. This game? Interactions: yes. solving the case: trying to, so yes. activity: very. Town. MoosyDoosy I don't like his tone, I don't like his methods, I didn't like his D1 tantrum, but at least he is annoying/pushing the ppl he thinks are scum and is trying to solve the game. So that is a grudgingly given townread. ritoky Was worried at one point, cause he kinda fell off the thread, but when he came back I kinda immediately felt the town vibe. It is kinda hard to describe and partially tone based, but it is how he is interacting with ppl and how he kept his cool during the Farah claiming situation D2 and tried to find the best play for town. Willing to give another day to impress me FF Did a filter dive on him and didn't found it to be as horrible as I previously thought. Despite yoloing his vote on scott he expressed his dislike of scott multiple times before. Also a few interactions and I guess he is a more conversational player. Problem is he is so lazy he could just as well be a lurky maffay. So far he has also fallen off a bit in activity on D2, but has a vote on Trfel with a decent explanation. Not loving, not hating it, but he kinda is on the lower end of my list and comes up in my PoE. So I would like him to do stuff in the near future.Scum lean. The Shining Had some decent interactions with him D2. damdy and geript have a town meta read on him. Would like him to do a bit more now, since he hasn't played MO/TUE and therefore not much posts, but I like him more than FF. Town lean. Bananaboat Eversince Last post was like 4 days ago. I hope she is well but this state does not help me figure out the game. disformation I am quite waffly about this one. Is he trying to solve this game or is he trying to smother the thread in huge, but useless wall posts? No clue. I am also subtracting a half townie brownie from everyone else for not coming up with the later read. Trfel Currently conflicted here. Wrong/Frustrated town or not? This is probably a big thing to figure out for town as a whole. Scum Breshke geript posts a meta-read on him saying he is mafia. Farah and me look into it and find that it appears as if he was interacting with his scum reads, but never really changes his stance. geript is dead and Breshke is currently scum reading farah and me. Incidentally the three ppl who where voting for him D1. I know I am a He also dismisses Farahs reasons for voting him as a rehash of geript's meta read on him. Well, since Breshke's filter has basically nothing but a bunch of questions leading nowhere, there is not much else to talk about? Also if you remember Farah's reason to vote for him D1, you can see that is was not purely based on geripts meta read. + Show Spoiler + On November 18 2015 02:50 FarahBlackwing wrote: Actually I have rethought my position on breshke. ##Vote Breshke There were two or so moments when something struck me as odd reading the filter, both were interactions between breshke and his supposed scum reads in FF (who he said he would lynch) and then moos. In both situations previously says he scum reads them but asks them questions and has no follow up on those questions and even if the person retorts or responds in a town sort of way he just puts them back in the ignore pile. No real explanation of the progress over eliminating FF (who was breshkes scum read earlier but said his filter wasn't that bad earlier than that) eliminating VE and some of the others. Just settling on the target of moos. Yes, geript mentions that in his meta read, but asking questions without following up on them or doing something with them is a scum tell. You don't need meta for that. So I am very happy with my vote on Breshke. For reference mostly talking about this post, since there is not much else: + Show Spoiler + On November 18 2015 14:37 Breshke wrote: Moosey i don't get why you don't just play like this from the start, like I really like that post it makes you look so fucking townie and that's shit because now from my POV all three wagons mine, moosey and scott were all town. Shining as well but that wasn't really a wagon and he has dropped off even if it was expected. At the moment I think there is scum in the people who attempted to sheep geripts case on me. This is weak as fuck. I don't recall any times that I didn't follow up on a moosey question and fairly sure the only time I didn't follow up with FF was because he was when I asked him to give a scott read but at the time he was filter diving someone else and when he eventually did I was already gone and FF isn't exactly around that often. Also i didn't settle on moosey I had been saying he was scum and the fake anger from him (which he ahs confirmed as being fake) DID remind me from the previous game where he was scum. This is just geripts meta case but written in a different way and passed off as her own. It is over explained and it could have jsut been a "yeah geript is right' but Farah felt the need to over justify this read. There is also a stage where Farah talks about using the PR on moosey to deal with him which i had explained was a terrible idea in my filter which she had apprently just analysed yet failed to take into account when making that comment. I'm running out of time and also have opinions on disformation and agree with a lot of mooseys last post. Also stuff about Geripts meta read but I need to go to work again soon. Basically I'm not sure if geripts meta read is shit or if my play has just been crap because of exams and working late shifts ruining my ability to wake up early when everyone is around because geripts read on me sounds like he is calling me shit town I.E not doing anything. I don't think he is mafia. Geript how confident in your meta read on meare you really when I have 2/20 mafia games in the database. All you have to base your shit on is town games. | ||
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On November 17 2015 23:26 Breshke wrote: Ritoky I don't think ignoring moosey and hoping for a PR to resolve it is the way to go. purely because in every setup with the cop if they get a green on moosey its a waste because it doesn't mean shit until a GF flips. I really don;t think shining will flip scum if he is lynched and think moosey is a far fa better lynch. On November 17 2015 23:28 Breshke wrote: ##Vote MoosyDoosy Does anyone have anything to ask me i got held up at work and its 1am here and will probably go to sleep soon and will most likely not be here until after deadline. On November 17 2015 23:30 Breshke wrote: Also as NM said go look at mooseys fake rage in that game i think it is similar to here from memory. It is just like misplaced anger at absolutly nothing that sidetracks the game and gives him an excuse to post but not do anything. | ||
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On November 20 2015 06:47 NocturneMage wrote: first quote in post 1228 disformation is pretty hilarious if scum Breshke knows there isn't a cop. Yep. And the third one is parroting you... Moosy forgot to put in the ##. | ||
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That was an obvious joke. ritoky can you explain why you want to lynch trfel? FF thoughts on Breshke? | ||
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Also would like for you to explain why you prefer lynching Breshke. And furthermore... do you have any solid town reads? Trfel: am I right to assume that you have a solid TR on the ppl not mentioned in: On November 20 2015 08:07 Trfel wrote: I always give replacements a day pass. There's absolutely no reason not to do so. Often times, a replacing player gives a new perspective to the slot's alignment that I simply couldn't see before. I keep looking at Breshke's play, and it seems to be getting worse and worse. The big thing that stands out are the unfulfilled activity promises, he keeps vanishing. But this is exam time for him, he barely signed up to play anyway. Activity aside, his play feels very genuine and there's a natural progression to the way that he pushed his scum reads on Day 1. MoosyDoosy has seemed quite towny with the push on FarahBlackwing, but since Damdred's replacement MoosyDoosy has been pretty awful. The claim included. Shooting someone for information is terrible. But I don't see any reason for him to claim there as mafia, he wasn't really suspected by anyone and the bad claim can only hurt him in the end. By process of elimination, I'm down to disformation, Fecalfeast, Damdred, and Eversince. The last two of which are terrible lynches today for reasons previously mentioned. | ||
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For Moosy... do his reads evolve? I kinda feel like he has the same reads all game. He called farah and me scum since D1. Also: On November 19 2015 06:18 MoosyDoosy wrote: Small thoughts on VE/geript. We definitely have a vigilante here. There is little reason for Mafia to have killed VE so geript was definitely the shot. I won't delve too much into NK WIFOM right now as I want to pursue my scum read but he was looking into Trfel and Breshke. I'm actually kind of glad VE died because I wasn't sure how to read him and he really dropped off. That was an okay vigilante action. He only started looking into Breshke and Trfel after Farah became unavailable as lynch due to being uncc: On November 19 2015 08:23 MoosyDoosy wrote: I'm going to look into Breshke and Trfel. Farah is still scummy as fuck but it would be best to keep her around for one more day and see what she does especially if she's un cc'd. | ||
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Still would nice to hear opinions on the rest as I fear that I might be somewhat biased regarding my sweetheart. Will be on phone a bunch tomorrow. Should be back home around 4 hours b4 deadline. | ||
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i really dislike that ff stopped doing stuff after his two good posts. he clearly was around and could have looked into the ppl he has no solid read on... so despite liking what he did I don't want to give him a TR. | ||
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