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I am looking very close at the vote tracker. disformation changed from Moosy to Breshke with 90 minute left approx.
Farah had her vote on disformation and only switched to scott at end.
Wait Trfel had voted for Scott before all the votes were finished piling on Moosy though, scott voted Moosy after that. Hmmmmm. Still if those votes are split, that exposes Breshke, so that's a problem for scum Trfel.
then again geript comes in screaming at the thread saying for people to get off moosy to begin with. so it's still possible that trfel piling on moosy would have gotten him in trouble. geript was going squarely for breshke.
moosy had at most 5-6 votes that point in the game, and trfel's vote on scott CAME BEFORE ANY OF THE VOTES ON BRESHKE DID.
It wouldn't have mattered. Because you know what? If Breshke had gotten enough votes, I am pretty sure that Trfel would have gotten back right on Breshke. Breshke only had 3 max votes at any point.
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On November 21 2015 04:26 NocturneMage wrote:
It wouldn't have mattered. Because you know what? If Breshke had gotten enough votes, I am pretty sure that Trfel would have gotten back right on Breshke. Breshke only had 3 max votes at any point.
ebwop
misstatement. I am pretty sure that Trfel would have gotten back right on MoosyDoosy - because of either alignment, Trfel is going to lynch a scum read over someone he was townreading.
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he was going to "save" breshke either way. he was going to go against geript either way, that is the point I was trying to make. if I'm still missing the point damdred then let me know.
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that depends on breshke flip. if breshke is town and ever is town, the game is over I think.
we're at 7:3
6:3 modkill
5:3 mislynch
4:3 nightkill
gg in that scenario
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but I really do think Breshke is scum. it's 5/2/1 so even if those two threw votes in right now, Breshke is still lynched.
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You've eaten brooms before disformation? Are you baked or something?
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Honestly I'm lynching Trfel next cycle.
I really don't give a fuck what he is saying at this point.
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Yesssssssss. WP town.
And disformation the answer to your question? Trfel.
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Literally just returned, and catching up. To be honest today and tomorrow are going to be poor in terms of activity for me, so I'll try and get as much out as I can. Work, sleep, and my wife returns after 11 days abroad, so tomorrow I'm going to spend as much time with her as humanly possible.
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On November 21 2015 05:50 disformation wrote:
Added some colour. Went ahead and painted myself green. :p
scott31337 (6): disformation, Trfel, FarahBlackwing, FarahBlackwing, Fecalfeast, disformation, ritoky, The Shining, NocturneMage
MoosyDoosy (4): NocturneMage, disformation, MoosyDoosy, Trfel, disformation, NocturneMage, Breshke, scott31337, ritoky
FarahBlackwing (1): Eversince, VisceraEyes, MoosyDoosy
Fecalfeast (1): VisceraEyes
Breshke (1): geript, FarahBlackwing, disformation
The Shining (0): FarahBlackwing, ritoky, disformation
Trfel (0): scott31337
VisceraEyes (0): NocturneMage, NocturneMage
mooseydoosey (0): Fecalfeast, Fecalfeast
disinformation (0): FarahBlackwing
Breshke (5): FarahBlackwing, disformation, NocturneMage, Damdred, Fecalfeast, ritoky, The Shining
Trfel (2): Fecalfeast, MoosyDoosy, NocturneMage
farahblackwing (1): MoosyDoosy, FarahBlackwing, Trfel
Fecalfeast (1): Trfel
farahbackwing (0): NocturneMage
Not Voting (2): Breshke, Eversince
D2 votes imply that if there was no bussing of the Roleblocker it has to be Trfel and Eversince. Otherwise at least 1 person had to bus. From the timing I would suggest one of the last three votes on Breshke for the bus.
I would agree with this. I think someone voiced the point that Trfel wasn't voting Breshke and starting a counterwagon (Shining? Damdred? I forget who) made him more towny but I'm also not sure that two people would make themselves that obvious trying to bus their roleblocker at the end. Unless you pulled a fail like us newbies did in newbie 13 lol.
....but not two open players anyhow. Still leaves the possibility of Eversince if I'm wrong on Trfel.
speaking of Trfel he seems convinced on Fecalfeast, and at the moment seeing his "lol I didn't bus my roleblocker" posts aren't impressing me knowing that Moosy himself bussed his own roleblocker the first two cycles in newbie 13 so I couldn't discount that possibility.
Then again it's Moosy with the yolo plays as usual, not sure how Fecalfeast plays as mafia.
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On November 21 2015 05:58 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2015 11:13 ritoky wrote:
pretty good post by trfel about ff. + trfel angry might mean trfel the town out of trfel/breshke and i was just wrong.
pretty good post by ff about breshke. hate that it took a good case on him to prompt it though. Show nested quote +On November 20 2015 14:17 ritoky wrote:
it still really irks me that ff only did something after he got cased.
random thought: if breshke is mafia, ff can still easily be with him. Show nested quote +On November 20 2015 14:25 ritoky wrote:
##vote: breshke
also in support of a shining or ever lynch. might be convinced of an ff lynch. Why is he voting Breshke together with FF who he suspects and kinda wants to lynch, too? And why is he suggesting to lynch two ppl who are very afk at that time?
On November 21 2015 05:41 The Shining wrote:
Yes. And rits d1 votes were me>Moosy>Scott. Im town, Moosy is unccd vig, scott flipped town. If he was suspicious of me enough to vote me, he should've been more worried about me voting Scott with him instead of realizing Scott was town right at deadline because of his post 3 mins before EoD.
And the refusal to evaluate. And his always softing me but no push or outright reasoning for why I'm scum.
I want to lynch ritoky.
Confirming you are basically saying that ritoky is suspicious for voting with his scumreads on other people? Makes sense. I did not think too much of him initially because of all the vote switching he did (and others like Farah I think switched multiple times) but I'd have to take a closer look at his filter.
Conversely from a pure voting standpoint, why is Trfel not mafia because it seems like some of you aren't convinced. The ritoky's argument of the whole GF/cop thing favouring bussing whatever over hard alignment made zero sense to me or rather I can't get my head around why either strategy would be setup dependent, if ritoky actually answered that questions, then I missed it.
I already made filter arguments and maybe this is just me not understanding the whole voting analysis thing except for the little I've learnt in my two games, but using this last voting example why would he bus his own roleblocker when he'd get no credit for it and his reads aren't lining up anyhow? Trfel can't obviously vote for himself so what choice does he have?
The only thing that jumps out at me looking at a town Trfel is him NOT voting with Fecalfeast who is voting Breshke, but IDK.
In any case there is still a second scum left....from the looks of what has been posted, I take it Onegu is a lurky player in general? Never played with him obviously.
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On November 21 2015 05:37 Damdred wrote:
Most important thing to consider is this
1) was Breshke the most dead in the water?
The answer to this question is yes, before nm switched it was 6-1-1
Even if the scum team switched it would be 4-4-1 and I don't think that nm would switch with that plus it reveals the scum team the next day if Trfel flips town.
Ff vote on Scott makes him look bad when it occured to put him above Breshke.
Rits vote on Scott looks bad overall plus his refusal to really evaluate or pay attention to the case geript+disf+Farah commented on.
Its highly likely rit is at least scum.
On November 21 2015 05:41 The Shining wrote:
Yes. And rits d1 votes were me>Moosy>Scott. Im town, Moosy is unccd vig, scott flipped town. If he was suspicious of me enough to vote me, he should've been more worried about me voting Scott with him instead of realizing Scott was town right at deadline because of his post 3 mins before EoD.
And the refusal to evaluate. And his always softing me but no push or outright reasoning for why I'm scum.
I want to lynch ritoky.
Noted for when I look through ritoky's filter.
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On November 21 2015 06:08 disformation wrote:
Also ritoky was trying to push for trfel over Breshke earlier D2...
On November 20 2015 07:27 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2015 07:03 disformation wrote:
ritoky can you explain why you want to lynch trfel? 2 reasons primarily: 1) The following sentence is probably the most awkward/scummy sentence in the entire thread. Show nested quote +On November 18 2015 04:21 Trfel wrote:
Wait, what the heck?
This push onto Breshke is so mafia-motivated. I don't trust geript at all here.
Look at scott31337's townread of geript. He just says that geript is a top town.
Notice that he repeatedly says "Trfel could be scum or he could be town" in response to me solving the game and pushing my ideas.
He never describes any difference between me and geript, just uses the fact that I had one good game as scum to avoid townreading me. But geript is better than me at mafia, by far, and scott31337 knows this. It's impossible for him not to know that geript is extremely skilled as mafia.
So now geript comes up with this push out of nowhere to prevent scott31337 from being lynched?
I don't like this one bit. 2) Trfel procedurally understands the game enough to not push relentlessly on an uncc'd blue. There's a difference between "I scum read this person for a couple posts to make sure they hold their claim" and what he was doing. He was legitimately applying pressure. I had begun to consider the tinfoil world where he might be doctor, but damdred enters the game maintains the claim, and he backs off. So it wasn't cc based, it wasn't good play, so it was probably just mafia. Reasons why I greatly prefer trfel to breshke: 1) I think trfel has done mafia things, I don't think breshke has done much of anything. Breshke is in the pile of ff and ever of not doing anything to significantly impact the game and 1 or 2 of them are probably mafia.
2) 1 of the primary reasons for people pushing breshke (geript's isolated questions and blah blah read) was just factually false.
3) I don't think trfel and breshke are together and I think trfel is mafia. I say this primarily because of setup. It is a set-up with only a 50% chance of having investigative power and a guaranteed GF. This means that distancing and busing are more optimal than hard defense and aligning; and trfel has been REALLY defending breshke (like since p1 of his filter defending) pretty much all game. I think both trfel and breshke are good enough players to recognize that about the setup and I sincerely doubt that trfel hard defends his partner so early. Probably a case of mafia trying to pocket town. imo lynch pool right now should be something like: trfel - reasons above ever - already said why ff - hasn't shit town rainbow yet, disengaged shining - same as before + extra dropoff + not scum hunting.
So I'm looking at this post and I'm curious as to how he goes from "Trfel has done more mafia things than Breshke" (paraphrasing) to "well only one of Trfel and Breshke can be mafia" because they aren't together.
On November 21 2015 09:27 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2015 09:18 ritoky wrote:On November 21 2015 09:07 Fecalfeast wrote:
Ritoky if I gave you a gun and told you to shoot anyone who isn't shining, would you use it? On whom?
I'm not feeling extra funny right now sorry bb. it's okay i think i might go shave to calm myself. shooting ever is always the correct play, but i am in a mood right now so i would shoot NM cuz yolo tinfoil. cuz basically in the scenario where i can't shoot shining cuz town shielded i am here: town: ritoky disform damdred moosy shining other: ff ever trfel NM if i pull out ff cuz he has basically been trying to get me to cheat on my wife all game by looking at me tantalizingly from the corner, then we have ever, trfel, NM and if my read on trfel is right that 1 between trfel and breshke, then i have a team of exactly: ever, NM....which i am not sure how i feel about that right now. but if shining is town then lynching those 3 wins the game in all likelihood.
So what makes trfel "less mafia" from ritoky's perspective given what he's posted before? I don't see he's posted much other than saying Fecalfeast is scum and that has not changed from him since before EoD. The hard alignment thing doesn't discuss anything from what he's seeing of Trfel other than an associative read. (Or an association read as to why he's not mafia.) At the very least you'd think he'd be a little more hesistant to say "welp Trfel's town based on setup, yet he still did X, Y, and Z," but maybe let me look into other people.
It seems too absolute for me you can't predict that everyone will think similarly on setup.
The reason Breshke was scumread esp for day 2 was the lack of followup/interaction engagement with scumreads, so I can see the argument of spewing disinformation (spewing meaning a TMI town read I assum), and it was said afterwards he did well in not giving teammates away otherwise.
going to check on ritoky vs Shining....
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Got interrupted.
For Shining, he brings up good points in 1466 and 1472 and I don't think those plus the rebuttal in 1479 could come from scum.
Also Breshke defending Shining doesn't really make Shining mafia, he can't control what Breshke does.
So I'm on post 1469, where ritoky is posting to Shining. Two things I'm looking at closely.
#2 if I remember the timing right Shining not playing at the time cited wasn't alignment indicative since he doesn't play Mondays and Tuesdays. I wasn't sure at the time if ritoky was just ignorant of this or if he didn't know about that and he was just voting people or putting in a lynch list he wasn't sure of. Him fighting with Eversince for being under anesthesia doesn't mean he's mafia though if you looked at the reasonings why. The excuses aren't mafia in of themselves, but why he voted him over Scott, who knows.
second
On November 21 2015 08:55 The Shining wrote:
The Breshke lynch was also 0% yours and you left yourself open to 3 other lynches, 2 on inactive at the time(me and ES) so I don't know how that makes me any worse than you. In fact, you tried to get people onto Trfel INSTEAD OF Breshke before giving up and going onto Breshke. So where I had suspicion and ended up voting him, you tried other lynches before going onto him.
is another reason as to why this setup reason is why he's backing off Trfel. But most critically is that post when he tries to push Trfel over Breshke and he says "Trfel has done scummy things, Breshke has not done anything."
I backtracked to when around the time ritoky "gave up" and decided to vote Breshke based on the FF case. He asked Trfel about an hour after he made his post pushing Trfel for a list of reasons and that was before he read the two cases.
Well the point of Breshke "not doing much of anything" was effectively in Fecalfeast's filter when he said "this filter is random, I want him to explain" (post 1287) and that was the long case on Breshke.
But the real issue is that FF's case on Breshke was on day 1 material. When ritoky pushed trfel day 2, his pushing Trfel day 2 was based on "Trfel doign scummy things nad Breshke not really doing anything" with that activity on day 1.
Why did it take Fecalfeast casing Breshke for ritoky to actually make the conclusion he did on Breshke when the material wasn't new and it was the same material at the time he was pushing Trfel that made Breshke less mafia than Trfel (in ritoky's view)? That gets me.
It actually makes sense for Trfel to even comment what he did - Fecalfeast pushing Breshke? "that's the easiest push in the world." So Trfel suspecting Fecalfeast actually makes Trfel less mafia (for me) and makes me question why ritoky actually didn't try to lynch Fecalfeast (or push him) if the case's material/basis was for material that didn't make him suspect compared to Trfel to begin with. After all he liked Trfel's case on Fecalfeast.
So that doesn't add up for ritoky.
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I think Shining appears to be town from his last round of posting. From day 1 anyhow his not playing is not alignment indicative, but that should be obvious.
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also I think I misunderstood Shining's comment, that Trfel pushing the uncounterclaimed vet was suicidal as mafia (or too scummy to be scum or whatever) not his starting the counterwagon when he really didn't think Breshke was the lynch or didn't want him to be lynched.
but once I'm lining all those things I did two posts ago, I can definitely see a likeliness to ritoky bussing, now the question is Shining or Fecalfeast, I doubt both would have been that revealing but there's always the possibility.
more reading to come....
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On November 22 2015 04:14 Fecalfeast wrote:
I'm not gonna self meta but I did link all my games in my trash talk post. Have a look at a fecalfeast mafia game.
So basically I skimmed your games real quick. There was one that only lasted a day so I just ignored that one.
Basically you post loads when you are mafia from what I can tell. At least you have to know that. So how can we be so sure that you aren't fooling us by having us comparing this game with your past mafia games? Plenty of players don't post much as mafia.
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Sure.
Well I'm town, but I think I've earned townreads by looking at different people from different approaches, and re-evaluating play based on certain criteria (like votes, whether they follow up, whether someone's argument makes sense in context, etc) I think my line of play should be relatively easy to follow and if people have problems with my alignment based on how I have played, they are more than welcome to ask and try and clear things up.
Right now, the most obvious townread is you Damdred, aside from being uncounterclaimed, from what I've read of how you are doing things you are taking the approach of stepping back and looking at and re-evaluting people. From what I can tell you don't really have the urgency to keep someone alive.
Aside from you, I think it's a tossup between Shining and disformation. the latter doesn't really have that much more experience than me but going through his posts he doesn't seem to have an urgency to keep any particular person alive (like a scum teammate). He is waffly as hell, but I don't recall this being different from when I encountered him in newbie 13. Even if there is a danger of self meta, he's showing to see both sides of players and the biggest thing to me is that he's doing a lot of reading of the thread to show where he's going with things. He could have protected Breshke given there were a lot of lurkers but him going for him early is very good on him.
Shining's activity has been extremely sporadic but he's raised some very good points (omgus aside, well then again it's not really omgus lol) as to why ritoky's play doesn't make sense from a town perspective. Additional points on the multiple vote switches that made me think twice and ultimately has driven the thread now, even if he hasn't been around to do it often. Between the two anyhow, I think he's more town than ritoky.
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whilst you're here ritoky, mind explaining to me what a soul read is? some extension of a meta read?
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On November 22 2015 07:05 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2015 01:44 Trfel wrote:
Hi.
I've got plans for today. If scum shoots me, we'll all be super happy anyway.
I guess Damdred is just town. Which leaves me to a POE list of Fecalfeast, disformation, and Onegu.
There's quite likely at least one hole in my POE list, some of the points raised against ritoky were pretty good.
I'll take a look this evening, hopefully. Wait I was... Show nested quote +On November 21 2015 05:26 Trfel wrote:On November 21 2015 05:23 The Shining wrote:
Brooms rhyme with shrooms =D I'll eat shrooms if town doesn't win >.>
Trfel do you still think FF is scum? I don't see how Fecalfeast can be town here. Breshke was obviously bussed. My push on Fecalfeast would have given mafia a golden opportunity to switch off of Breshke, but nothing happened. In addition to all of Fecalfeast's play, that absolutely confirms him as mafia. ABSOLUTELY CONFIRMED mafia. + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +"Which leaves me to a POE list of Fecalfeast, disformation, and Onegu." IDK if I had someone who was ABSOLUTELY CONFIRMED mafia, I would vote them. ##vote trfelTake everything everyone said about trfel being too scummy to be scum and that's my case except that he's so scummy that he's scum.
Based on the above posts, why does this make trfel mafia? to the point before I said that the material you cased Breshke on was from day 1 hence Trfel saying your push was too easy. that made more sense once I re-read in context. But why does that associative read "my push on Fecalfeast would have given mafia a golden opportunity....." make him mafia?
if I had to pretend for just one second that trfel is town, tbf he's screaming at the thread and no one is listening to him, there are two scum remaining.
how do you know he's not going to sort out (first quote) someone else if no one is listening to him on his primary scumread? the first quote indicates just that.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/y3sTvav.png)
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