[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience

On October 22 2015 07:44 marvellosity wrote:

which 2?

On October 22 2015 07:46 marvellosity wrote:

good, me too

but not ritoky

On October 22 2015 06:56 gumshoe wrote:


Theres no point to him trying to convince us to follow his lynch. RNG is viable when reads are shit, convincing town to rng lynch requires shit reads. The game has just begun therefore reads have not had the time to develop quality, which means bh does not yet posses his convince condition.

In the absence of the means to convince us to choose his method, all he can do is argue how his is truly random. Because a mafia player who argues for an actual rng lynch is forfeiting his ability to protect his teammates (and potentially himself) from rng. A competent scumer would usually have faith in his ability to sway town one way or another, which means he probably wouldn't risk an rng team kill. Basically there are only 3 kinds of players who would propose this strat.

1) a player who is so insecure about his play, he is honestly proposing to just roll the dice instead of play(at least on day 1). This player could be town or scum.

2) A town player who is just using this as a means to prove his innocence "why would I risk killing myself or my teamies as mafia? I must be town!" this works sorta because your odds are quite low of hitting yourself and if you do then you can always say "well I know I'm town, so I'll just disregard this result" -_-

3) A scummer who believes that town will not actually rng lynch because it is objectively a bad strat compared to a really solid case/read. He must hope for this, because to a scummer the rng lynch can actually just backfire, since mafia as an entity operate on a clear pool of lives as opposed to towns mist of health.

we can probally straight up rule out the first possibility (bh be goods not scrubs), which leaves 2 and 3. This whole thing seems pre written so hard to tell between them. Honestly best just to ignore the whole thing unless it gets to the point where our reads are so junk an rng lynch is actually more likely.

ether way, I dont think bh expects us to actually straight up rng lynch, this was probably just a way to look active early on without actually offering substance (though it might draw substance out of others, which is always good)

On October 22 2015 07:57 marvellosity wrote:

yes

somehow feels like gumshoe could easily post it as town though

On October 22 2015 22:51 marvellosity wrote:

not really. i mean you could be right and it's mafia picking up on those things. But i also don't see why a townie might not either. I can't really tell why one scenario should be particularly more likely than the other. So... *shrug*

ritoky's pretty null for me basically

On October 22 2015 06:41 ritoky wrote:


poorly explained response, forced joke, clear post editing, extra lines at the end of post.

On October 22 2015 23:56 marvellosity wrote:
because most of town aren't retards and/or mafia?

On October 23 2015 00:13 marvellosity wrote:

on the other hand, i could tell you mafia are more likely to make hay and actually explain those things (which are quite easy to do) so that they have a nice looking post. I'd say mafia are more prone to overexplanation, no? :>

On October 22 2015 06:30 Vivax wrote:
We might already have caught mafia here since yammo doesn't reply in response to my phantastic intimidating presence.

When he's afk he's mafia.

On October 22 2015 07:13 Vivax wrote:
Xatalos
ritoky
Blazinghand
gumshoe

Yamato:

+ Show Spoiler +

and rayn gets pranked

On October 23 2015 00:50 marvellosity wrote:

This doesn't make sense. He calls yamato mafia and so he's not paranoid? What are you saying?

Like I get what you're saying about the townlist, but you need to explain it much much better about calling people mafia.

On October 23 2015 01:00 marvellosity wrote:

This is the same Vivax who tunnelled me and HF and one other based on a connection theory for abour 36h starting from half an hour into day 1, yes? That Vivax who is wary of giving reads?

On October 23 2015 02:38 marvellosity wrote:
shame rayn is probably town then, huh

On October 23 2015 07:08 Xatalos wrote:


Slam and Hopeless are town why?

On October 23 2015 01:06 GlowingBear wrote:


EXACTLY!

I think I'm having a hard time even to understand what I want to say LOL.

I mean he had a couple of theories to tunnel both of you. He WASN'T straight forward. His town reads were never strong because of the tin foil.

But here, less than half a day, he already has like 4 townreads, and two of them I don't even understand why.

By the way, Vivax, what are the reasons to townread BH and Xata?

On October 23 2015 07:44 marvellosity wrote:

This is what worries me tbh. Not that I'm saying he isn't a levelheaded person, but I'm kinda struggling to place him in the game which I don't like

On October 23 2015 07:41 marvellosity wrote:

+1

On October 23 2015 07:46 marvellosity wrote:

I'm going to be honest - the reason is because I'm an idiot. I basically got stuck in one train of thought and forgot that Vivax is a little bitch as mafia and that a confident Vivax is far more likely to be town. so yeah... makes me feel less good about feeling better about GB, although I'm still not really sure

On October 23 2015 07:48 marvellosity wrote:

I don't know how to explain and it may be nothing

like I know he's been on ritoky and stuff. but with most other people i can remember who they argued with, or standing out in particular for some reason, or meta stuff when I think about them.

so for me Chromatically is kinda just *there*. tbh right now i'm not even sure i'm suspicious of him for it,not filtered him or anything, i'll do that tomorrow. so he can go about his business ^^

On October 23 2015 22:38 Xatalos wrote:
Eh... I mean, you just said "huh someone else attacked rayn before?" implying you didn't read my posts, and then you scumread Slam for attacking rayn in a very similar fashion... Why put someone as your biggest scumread before even reading the context of his posts?

On October 23 2015 22:42 marvellosity wrote:
i don't understand why you keep assuming you and slam are the same and should be treated the same

it's just nonsense

On October 23 2015 22:44 marvellosity wrote:

no i think rayn is town and i already explained why.

On October 23 2015 02:40 Blazinghand wrote:


pfah, details! you're not looking at the big picture, marv

I should probably read his filter at some point though. I am serious though about giving yamato some more time

On October 23 2015 23:08 marvellosity wrote:
my reasoning was that you're a bit of a pussy as mafia and it would be much easier for you just to townread me when if you are mafia you know there is a 0% chance of me ever getting lynched.

the fact you pushed me before under similar circumstances weakens that as a heuristic though

although i doubt you'd make the same mistake twice

On October 23 2015 02:41 marvellosity wrote:
pretty hard to shake my townfeels on rayn when he comes into the thread saying he has 2 townreads and no mafiareads when at that point i had 2 townreads and no mafiareads and the 2 townreads were the same as mine.

On October 23 2015 23:35 marvellosity wrote:
literally just explained my feelings about Chrome, GB.

other than your read on Vivax i can't really think of anything that would make you town. so all that's left is a bad read on vivax.

On October 23 2015 23:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:

and btw this is what GB does as scum.
He basically does something that is "too scummy to be scum" then, when called out for it he says "mafia would never do that so i am not mafia". Hell he isn't even really defending his read (see Trfel/Damdred last game), he just says "i would not pick Vivax as my target as mafia because people are townreading him".

On October 24 2015 00:01 marvellosity wrote:

what has this got to do with anything at all?

On October 24 2015 00:14 marvellosity wrote:

i'm not ignoring everything he says afterwards. i liked some of his longer posts.

you're coming at this in a really, really shallow way.

like I can answer your question about rayn's play.

rayn thinks GB could be mafia, but he has nagging meta/tonal reasons that he might be town
rayn thinks you are mafia because of your shit read on him, but he knows he cannot push a lynch through on you at all with me opposing it today
rayn recognises that me and him both agree on Slam, this is a good shot of being mafia and if he hits mafia he gets more cred to go after you.

marv fell off this for basically no reason, I would have pushed him more

I disagree on your assessment of GB. I think he ass-pulled his explanation of his scumread of Vivax. I think mafia GB randomly decided to scumread someone and fabricated the reason over multiple posts.

On October 24 2015 00:19 marvellosity wrote:

hey I think yamato is very likely to be town. I like all his reads and the way he is making them.

the first bit of this post - no actually yamato was bang on, and it should make you townread him for it, not mafiaread him. The fact, when he mentioned it and I responded, that I conceded he was right should also bring you to that conclusion.

why doesn't it?

essentially (as i already explained somewhere) i had a bit of a brain fart and i wasn't evaluating vivax's town/mafia play properly in my head, so what yamato said about dropping off it too easily was bang on, because if i was using full/correct information, i would have kept on it more. It makes yamato look good because he's suggesting the direction that play should have taken, and he was actually right about it. And i can say that because it was my thought process.

On October 24 2015 00:33 marvellosity wrote:
it's not heading towards anything vs rayn.

On October 24 2015 00:32 Xatalos wrote:
GB, if you're town, seriously don't just commit suicide here. Looks like it's heading towards you vs rayn and it'd be sad if you caused your own death there, like a certain player in my newbie game....

On October 24 2015 00:31 marvellosity wrote:

he's right and succinct AND has insight into my thought process.

On October 24 2015 00:40 marvellosity wrote:

yes

that's why i need yamato

i have no thread control and it's infuriating

On October 24 2015 00:41 GlowingBear wrote:


I
HAVE
READ
THE
THREAD

I KNOW YOU "YOLO'ED" AND CALLED ONEGU TOWN FOR NO REASON
I KNOW YOU META'ED HOPELESS AND CALLED HIM TOWN
I KNOW MARV AND YOU HAD TWO INITIAL TOWNREADS - XATALOS AND VIVAX
I KNOW YOU FUCKING HAD GUMSHOE AS MAFIA THEN FLIPPED YOUR READ

WHY CAN'T I BRING WHAT I THINK ABOUT PLAYERS AND ASK YOU TO COMMENT ABOUT WHAT I'VE BROUGHT INSTEAD OF SAYING "OH OKAY RAYN SAID THESE GUYS ARE TOWN SO THEY ARE"????!?!??

JESUS CHRIST

On October 24 2015 00:51 marvellosity wrote:

okay, you are welcome to think this

but when i end up being right about rayn, i reserve the right to never listen to your opinions in any game ever again.

On October 24 2015 00:58 marvellosity wrote:

it's irrelevant what my reasoning is when the result is always correct

it's not for nothing rayn made a post a couple pages ago "there is only one person on the planet who can read me"

he means me.

go away.

On October 24 2015 02:03 Vivax wrote:
But rayn and marv are arrogant, I don't see the value in reinventing the wheel there.

On October 24 2015 03:08 marvellosity wrote:
Meta point on Chromatically:

In Detention (town) he didn't give a single townread on day 1
In Order Mafia (mafia) he did

In this game he has given town reads

I'm looking at this because it was a couple of his posts on townreads that made me raise my eyebrows

On June 11 2014 10:03 Chromatically wrote:

Wow.

Your scumread on me is not even a scumread. You listed a bunch of things I did that you didn't like or disagreed with. What you did not do is explain how they make me scum. You "didn't like my entrance"- how does that make me scum? You actually say that you disagree with my scumread- how does that make me scum? Even when you're talking about how you disagree with my scumread, you don't quote the case and look at what parts of it you think could come from scum, you just mention why you disagree with some parts of it. And then you basically make up the part where I was "asking everyone to sheep me", because I was making a deliberate point of not doing that (I asked marv because I wanted his opinion, but I'm not going around asking people to start a wagon).

I don't see at all how your points lead you to think I'm scum.

On October 24 2015 03:36 marvellosity wrote:

what's that got to do with anything?

it's not why i scumread you

it's an observation

On October 24 2015 03:54 marvellosity wrote:

in Detention as town you didn't make a townread
in Order as mafia you did

it's not totally untrue. look for yourself.

On October 24 2015 04:06 marvellosity wrote:
yamato is a good townplayer when he actually plays, which is all too rare.

me/rayn/yamato

pretty good

On October 24 2015 04:10 marvellosity wrote:
your posting a defence of a case as similar to you just giving out random townreads here? where your motivation was literally to stop that wagon forming and lynch your own choice?

srsly?

okay.

nothing further your honour

On October 24 2015 04:38 marvellosity wrote:
yes but you scumside so that should make you tihnk he is mafia

ritoky: i know, but lots of fun things are bad for your health

On October 24 2015 04:39 marvellosity wrote:
if xata wasn't so terrible the wagons could be chrome-slam instead of rayn-slam and then our chances of hitting mafia would increase exponentially

On October 24 2015 05:21 Xatalos wrote:


I already said that I can tentatively buy your meta case, though. How should I know that marv has been not playing as scum in his last games? I haven't seen those games. I don't see how me not being all-knowing of recent games makes me not worth listening to at all.

If that's your decision, then I guess it's hard to overturn the lynch at this point... But it's still one of the worse lynches available, so it's kind of sad. The scumteam would have to be something stupid like Slam/gumshoe/GB or Slam/gumshoe/ritoky or Slam/GB/ritoky for it to make real sense. None of those teams are likely at all, and every potential scum candidate voted for Slam quickly when the opportunity came.

On October 24 2015 05:28 Xatalos wrote:


Not really, why?

On October 24 2015 05:31 ritoky wrote:


if you're thinking unflipped associations; i would assume you have considered: BH pushes his RNG lynch really hard when he is town doing it -> he RNG'd rayn -> rayn is in legitimate threat of being lynched -> BH stops pushing for rayn, says sad about TR him -> pushes on slam.

i would feel like you would be sketched out a bit by BH's progression if you think rayn is so firmly mafia. certainly way more than marv's progression.

On October 24 2015 05:36 marvellosity wrote:
i retract my townread on xata out of spite at how terrible he's being

On October 24 2015 05:36 marvellosity wrote:

like there aren't to townread me?

lmao

i love your "i don't know what marv did in previous games" when BH explained to you what i did, and told you the game, and you could have gone and looked

but no, you went to your VS game and posted a load of shit noone gave a fuck about it

top play xata

top
fucking
play

On October 24 2015 06:04 marvellosity wrote:
Slam why couldn't you post that 10 minutes earlier?

On October 24 2015 06:23 marvellosity wrote:

i found it very town?

would you just fuck off?