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On October 22 2015 07:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2015 07:57 marvellosity wrote:On October 22 2015 07:56 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 22 2015 06:56 gumshoe wrote:On October 22 2015 06:30 Chromatically wrote:
BH, you talk a lot about why your lynch is random but not at all about why we should follow it. Theres no point to him trying to convince us to follow his lynch. RNG is viable when reads are shit, convincing town to rng lynch requires shit reads. The game has just begun therefore reads have not had the time to develop quality, which means bh does not yet posses his convince condition. In the absence of the means to convince us to choose his method, all he can do is argue how his is truly random. Because a mafia player who argues for an actual rng lynch is forfeiting his ability to protect his teammates (and potentially himself) from rng. A competent scumer would usually have faith in his ability to sway town one way or another, which means he probably wouldn't risk an rng team kill. Basically there are only 3 kinds of players who would propose this strat. 1) a player who is so insecure about his play, he is honestly proposing to just roll the dice instead of play(at least on day 1). This player could be town or scum. 2) A town player who is just using this as a means to prove his innocence "why would I risk killing myself or my teamies as mafia? I must be town!" this works sorta because your odds are quite low of hitting yourself and if you do then you can always say "well I know I'm town, so I'll just disregard this result" -_- 3) A scummer who believes that town will not actually rng lynch because it is objectively a bad strat compared to a really solid case/read. He must hope for this, because to a scummer the rng lynch can actually just backfire, since mafia as an entity operate on a clear pool of lives as opposed to towns mist of health. we can probally straight up rule out the first possibility (bh be goods not scrubs), which leaves 2 and 3. This whole thing seems pre written so hard to tell between them. Honestly best just to ignore the whole thing unless it gets to the point where our reads are so junk an rng lynch is actually more likely. ether way, I dont think bh expects us to actually straight up rng lynch, this was probably just a way to look active early on without actually offering substance (though it might draw substance out of others, which is always good) this. this is a big post of nonsense. yes somehow feels like gumshoe could easily post it as town though but i know he has this "i think town!gumshoe would think this" thingy 
that's getting a bit meta for me 
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On October 22 2015 08:38 Xatalos wrote:
For the record, voted Chromatically a while ago. Mainly because he felt a bit more like he wanted to blend in / appear "good" by posting those questions etc., whereas yamato just left the thread without even trying to look good.
when does yamato leave the thread trying to look good as mafia lol
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I think you're blowing this out of proportion a little, rayn
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hopeless already pointed out what i assumed he was referring to
and again, you're taking it too seriously
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On October 22 2015 11:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I have voted you dumbasses.
That's what you get for having a voting theread.
(yes i will bitch about that all game long)
always good to be a prick to others because you don't get your own way
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On October 22 2015 13:35 yamato77 wrote:
If I fail to deliver, you can go ahead and try to get me lynched, but in the mean time, don't delude yourself into thinking I'm scum just because I won't play the game the way you want me to. It's rather silly.
I can't wait.
I love these yamato promises.
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Have no idea what to do with myself this game so far tbh, so I guess I'll do something crazy like work.
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On October 22 2015 22:24 Chromatically wrote:
marv, any opinions on ritoky/my post on ritoky?
not really. i mean you could be right and it's mafia picking up on those things. But i also don't see why a townie might not either. I can't really tell why one scenario should be particularly more likely than the other. So... *shrug*
ritoky's pretty null for me basically
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because most of town aren't retards and/or mafia?
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##Vote: GlowingBear
much better vote
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On October 23 2015 00:10 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2015 22:51 marvellosity wrote:On October 22 2015 22:24 Chromatically wrote:
marv, any opinions on ritoky/my post on ritoky? not really. i mean you could be right and it's mafia picking up on those things. But i also don't see why a townie might not either. I can't really tell why one scenario should be particularly more likely than the other. So... *shrug* ritoky's pretty null for me basically Alright, I can see how it could come from town. I would say it's more likely from mafia because it's a very easy thing to point out about a very easy person to jump on, whereas town would explain why they thought gumshoe's thought process was scummy instead of just giving a laundry list of "tells" like this: Show nested quote +On October 22 2015 06:41 ritoky wrote:On October 22 2015 06:39 Xatalos wrote:On October 22 2015 06:36 ritoky wrote:
gumshoe might be mafia. Why? poorly explained response, forced joke, clear post editing, extra lines at the end of post. I'm not as confident in it now as I was, but I think it's still reasonable especially in combination with the fact that the rest of his posts are pure filler with no actual reads/town content.
on the other hand, i could tell you mafia are more likely to make hay and actually explain those things (which are quite easy to do) so that they have a nice looking post. I'd say mafia are more prone to overexplanation, no? :>
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On October 23 2015 00:13 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2015 23:56 marvellosity wrote:
because most of town aren't retards and/or mafia? So you think he is town based on what?
reading the thread
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On October 23 2015 00:25 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 00:13 marvellosity wrote:On October 23 2015 00:10 Chromatically wrote:On October 22 2015 22:51 marvellosity wrote:On October 22 2015 22:24 Chromatically wrote:
marv, any opinions on ritoky/my post on ritoky? not really. i mean you could be right and it's mafia picking up on those things. But i also don't see why a townie might not either. I can't really tell why one scenario should be particularly more likely than the other. So... *shrug* ritoky's pretty null for me basically Alright, I can see how it could come from town. I would say it's more likely from mafia because it's a very easy thing to point out about a very easy person to jump on, whereas town would explain why they thought gumshoe's thought process was scummy instead of just giving a laundry list of "tells" like this: On October 22 2015 06:41 ritoky wrote:On October 22 2015 06:39 Xatalos wrote:On October 22 2015 06:36 ritoky wrote:
gumshoe might be mafia. Why? poorly explained response, forced joke, clear post editing, extra lines at the end of post. I'm not as confident in it now as I was, but I think it's still reasonable especially in combination with the fact that the rest of his posts are pure filler with no actual reads/town content. on the other hand, i could tell you mafia are more likely to make hay and actually explain those things (which are quite easy to do) so that they have a nice looking post. I'd say mafia are more prone to overexplanation, no? :> I agree to an extent. I think mafia are likely to explain tells in a general way (what ritoky did) , but applying them to specific people is much harder because that's when you have to explain how their town actions were motivated by a mafia thought process.
but he applied it to a specific person.
are you telling me you struggled to understand what those tells were relating to in gumshoe's post(s)?
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On October 23 2015 00:26 Chromatically wrote:
I don't really see why GB is mafia for that read rather than it just being a bad read.
it's ok i don't need you to understand
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Can you give a couple examples of what he is "assuming in absolutes"?
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On October 23 2015 00:44 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2015 06:30 Vivax wrote:
We might already have caught mafia here since yammo doesn't reply in response to my phantastic intimidating presence.
When he's afk he's mafia. There are a couple of similar posts like the one regarding yamato, but there are no posts where he shows the reason to his top town reads.
are you seriously telling me right now Vivax doesn't make the type of 1st post as town?
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On October 23 2015 00:48 GlowingBear wrote:
His first post was a vote on yamato?
And yes, he CAN do it as town, but his whole filter has posts in similar fashion. And I usually see Vivax being paranoid. Not this straight forward.
This doesn't make sense. He calls yamato mafia and so he's not paranoid? What are you saying?
Like I get what you're saying about the townlist, but you need to explain it much much better about calling people mafia.
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like it just seems so very lazy to me to characterise Vivax's townplay as "paranoid" and then call him mafia because his posts don't fit into this very shallow metric.
I like my vote better now than when I made it when it was more of a random punt
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On October 23 2015 00:57 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2015 00:50 marvellosity wrote:On October 23 2015 00:48 GlowingBear wrote:
His first post was a vote on yamato?
And yes, he CAN do it as town, but his whole filter has posts in similar fashion. And I usually see Vivax being paranoid. Not this straight forward.
This doesn't make sense. He calls yamato mafia and so he's not paranoid? What are you saying? Like I get what you're saying about the townlist, but you need to explain it much much better about calling people mafia. I may be wrong here marv, but what I'm trying to say is not that he is calling people mafia, but that his posts are very straight forward here (that's what I trying to saying with "absolutes" = he calls a player mafia, he calls a player town - I don't see him having a slow progression on most people. And I'm used to Vivax being way more wary before giving reads). It's basically tonal.
This is the same Vivax who tunnelled me and HF and one other based on a connection theory for abour 36h starting from half an hour into day 1, yes? That Vivax who is wary of giving reads?
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