[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience - Page 17

On October 26 2015 14:27 Onegu wrote:
Ok I take back my read on Gumshoe. He looks really townie now.

I think I like a hopeless lynch at this point. He is just lurking which is with the way the thread was and has been imploding I cant shake the feeling there is at least 1 scum in the lurkers if not 2 or even 3. Plus I did a test for him and he failed it hard. He said he would vote me if I did nothing and I basically told him I look forward to it and he did nothing about it. There are a few other things like his votes and reasons. I will go more into it tomorrow.

Ritoky could also easily be mafia as a lurker, plus his thing following his towniest read and that read was BH.

Ill get into more details tomorrow.

But for now.

##Vote: Hopeless

On October 26 2015 14:31 Blazinghand wrote:
Well, he hasn't voted or posted in the past like 2 or 3 days, right? Although there's no hard activity requirement in this game, you are required to vote. He may jsut be modkilled. I don't even know why I'm reasoning with you Onegu but, couldn't we just shenannie onto Hopeless if he comes back? cause otherwise we should just let him get MKed

if you do want to actually lynch Hopeless (and I can't tell anything from his filter other than that he seemed vaguely itnerested in the game then never tried and stopped posting) you have to commit to shennannying at the deadline if he's gonna get modkilled, Onegu

The reason I bring this up is because I'm imagining the following situation:

We pull together a wagon on someone and lynch him, and then you never come back all day and hopeless1 gets modkilled, and you do not particupate in the town discourse all day and we don't know anything about you, and you never had to take any stances....

So here's what Iwant from you, 1gu: a commitment to shenannie if Hopeless1 isn't going to get modkill, and you take part in the day's discussions. What do you say?

On October 26 2015 14:33 Blazinghand wrote:
Come on, you were here like 120 seconds ago you can't pretend to be gone now

On October 26 2015 14:41 Onegu wrote:



oK

##Unvote

On October 26 2015 14:44 Onegu wrote:
I am sleeping now.

On October 26 2015 14:46 Blazinghand wrote:


no wait you can't just unvote you also have to like, talk about things

On October 26 2015 14:46 Blazinghand wrote:


ahahaha

On October 26 2015 14:47 Onegu wrote:
Dont worry BH we have plenty of time. I will be here in the morning.

On October 26 2015 14:50 Blazinghand wrote:
*sobs*

On October 26 2015 17:16 Vivax wrote:
The fun to play.

Good to know you're around BH, why suggest shenannies on hopeless without really making a decision in the GB + yamato set of options? You know it's way easier to just join one of the camps for a successful scum lynch than suggest hopeless who is more coinflippy?

On October 26 2015 17:20 Blazinghand wrote:
The point is that hopeless is a bad lynch and onegu was opting out of the discourse by voting him. Onegu reacted by unvoting him and leaving. Do you not understnad what I'm saying? Can you not wrap your head around that? Let me lay it out real simple for you

1. 1gu shows up, ignores everyone, votes Hopeless1 who hasn't posted and is likely to get modkilled
2. 1gu decided to peace out
3. I am like "ok dude that is not acceptable. You want to lynch Hopeless1? fine, we'll do it by shenannies if we have to. It's a crap idea to vote him though cause he's probably getting modkilled. either be on him and be ready to shenanny off, or get off him and join the discourse"
4. 1gu is like "haha no i'm just gonna peace and not talk about anything, likely because I am scum"

5. Vivax comes in, and, unable to see due to the pantaloons firmly wrapped around his face, says that I suggested shenannies on hopeless "without really making a decision in GB + yamato" which while not literally false (since I haven't weighed in there yet) definitely misrepresents what I did
6. BH points out that Vivax is really bad
7. Vivax apologises profusely

On October 26 2015 17:21 Blazinghand wrote:
like ylou do understand what 1gu just did right

let me make it one hundo percent clear for you then:

1gu just fuckin bailed after being aclled out on opting out of the discourse

no thoughts on this vivax?

On October 26 2015 17:22 Vivax wrote:
BH where is your contribution in finding out who is mafia in all that?

I do admit that I was hasty in reading it as you suggesting a hopeless lynch.

But that means you didn't suggest anything, you told Onegu how to play the game.

On October 26 2015 17:23 Vivax wrote:
I don't like the tone of this conversation, there's a dick virus going around in this thread and I already have to fight with a mundane one.

On October 26 2015 17:24 Blazinghand wrote:


let me show you what's what boyo

##vote Onegu

plus I think we both know that I dont' need to do anything to prove myself innocent since I'm getting shot tonight regardless. I am free of the feelings of "pressure" that others may feel since the only guy who might get shot ahead of me normally, rayn, has given up on playing the game.

and yes I think rayn is town

On October 26 2015 23:58 Vivax wrote:
Wait Onegu you just said you can't do activity reads on yammo but knowing he has free time you say he's null??? Why not mafia?

On October 27 2015 00:21 Vivax wrote:
Onegu what the flying frisbee did yamato do that was so townie on D1???



This is from your list post.

On October 27 2015 00:25 Onegu wrote:



Because he had reads and put effort into the game. He can make posts as scum but he doesnt put effort into his posts. I felt he put actuall thought into his reads. Looked townie to me.

On October 27 2015 00:28 Vivax wrote:


I'm gonna compare his reads to yours from the time in question and tell you if you're mafia in a bit.

I already noticed you had opposite reads on GB so you're one step closer to a bad road.

On October 27 2015 00:36 Vivax wrote:


So this and the GB scumread is the best effort we see from yamato during D1.



I bolded everything they should disagree on (and the GB part isn't even included) and I can say with a certain confidence that there's no reason for a town Onegu to blindly trust yamato here, or even give him a town pass for effort when his rayn and marv reads are similarly wishywashy to Onegus.

On October 27 2015 00:56 Vivax wrote:


What made you feel like he was town? Are you ONegu the second? Everyone's just calling him town on D1 when I see ZERO reasons besides the activity. Like the only reason I ever saw to not lynch yamato was the fact he posted a bit, but there's nothing particularly townie in there.

On October 27 2015 11:32 Chromatically wrote:

Just going off filter length, Xatalos has 28 pages of filter in this game so far, and his longest mafia filter is 15 pages (he did get up to 38 after 7 days as an SK-type thing but that's pretty different). Honestly that's pretty convincing just on it's own for me. Plus, he's one of the people most interested in and trying to figure out the game in my opinion (N1 he was discussing that the whole time and really putting his thoughts in the thread, I thought it was very town). I think there's almost no way Xatalos is mafia this game, despite the fact that I think he's been wrong.

I would be very very surprised if the mafia team isn't exactly GB + Onegu + Hopeless. That's both by PoE and by scumminess in thread. My list looks like:

ritoky
gumshoe
Xatalos
BH
(almost certainly town)

rayn
Vivax
(very likely town)

Hopeless
Onegu
GB
(mafia)

The gap between the top two groups is much much smaller than the gap to the bottom group

I really liked some of the stuff that BH posted near the end of deadline (good thoughts about GB and yamato, and his analysis makes it clear that he's actively trying to solve the game with a townie thought process). In addition, his shennanies make it very hard to put him on a team with either GB or Onegu, and I don't think there's any way both of them can be town.

Both rayn and Vivax can basically only be mafia if GB isn't, which I think is highly unlikely of course. The fact that rayn came back after leaving and pushed GB with good points is very townie, in addition to the fact that I really liked his snarky comments around the lynch and his frustration seems genuine (at Xatalos/Slam). And he's been active in figuring out the game since he came back.

The only thing I don't like about Vivax is the fact that his read on me doesn't seem to have evolved at all since D1, even though I think I've been playing way differently (he still thinks I have low thread interaction? my posting has not been "mechanical" at all today, why is he confused by my insistence on GB). But he's also been posting a lot of townie thoughts and has been active in figuring stuff out, so he's still probably town.

By the way, I don't think not shenannying to GB is a sign of mafia at all. I think my logic was correct that flipping two players at the same time was a bad idea here, and the players who could have switched didn't have a lot of time to think about it and make a decision anyway, if they were even in the thread at the time.

So: GlowingBear + Onegu + Hopeless


I'll probably post more about all of these this phase (particularly Onegu because I haven't said a lot about him so far).

On October 27 2015 23:22 gumshoe wrote:
I just dont think that a scum rayn in a good position would forfeit thread control and be a huge dick to people THAT HES NOT ACTUALLY MAD AT IF HES SCUM. Basically I dont think a) that rayn is that kind of a cock(and i dont mean that big, cause he can be massive just not that kind, as hes in hes not the sort of player who prefers to win as scum by pretending to be a jerk) and b) that the outburst was his best move at the time.

But I could definitely be wrong / :

I def wouldnt lynch rayn before gb onegu hopeless though.

On October 28 2015 02:31 Blazinghand wrote:
Ah, I'm gonna be pretty tied up for the next 24 hours or so with a really extravagant dinner, I'll sit down and lay out some reads before EoN though. I'm definitely in the running for getting shot so I'll make sure to get my ideas out. Other than what I've already been saying, "we should probably lynch GB, 1Gu, and H1" and "rayn is town, despite his amazing uselessness," I'll do some research and lay out some reasons and new reads.

On October 30 2015 05:19 gumshoe wrote:


you should care, if gb flips town for some dumb reason, then you me or xata die, well have 3 scum plus ritoky vs 3 town and onegu might not get lynched till lylo or something equally disturbing.

On October 30 2015 05:33 gumshoe wrote:


1: Everything your saying is wifom, 1gu mighta killed rayn to sway townies his way, your are literally the living proof that this is a possibility

2: Whereas the nightkill is all wifom, 1gu's votes are facts. By wasting them on hopeless if hes town he is effectively sacrificing his ability to influence the vote. If the vote is between scum and town, and scum survive then the townie who burned his vote has effectively contributed to another townies mislynch.

3: This works as well vice versa for a scummer trying to save his teamates, but what if 1gu's teamates were never at risk?

4: 1gus day 2 behavior is only optimal if a scummer was not in danger and 1gu is scum, if 1gu is town, he does not actually know if his vote will make a diffrence or not, but if 1gu is scum, he DOES know that the best move is to steer clear of the lynch, so as to avoid fall out from it. Basically avoiding a vote is a pr move, you know who cares about pr? Scum / : the end

lynch da goo.

On October 30 2015 06:17 gumshoe wrote:


I was wrong yesterday ) : so today's choice is yours, but TRY to make sense of what hopeless is doing is hes scum, it doesn't unless hes trying to protect 1gu / : maybe it doesnt matter and 1gu and gb are both scum, but based of hopeless's actions we should definitely be voting onegu.

On October 30 2015 06:25 gumshoe wrote:


from ritokys perspective, it would have to be xata vivax,

cmon ritoky, why isnt hopeless voting onegu? If hopeless is the only scum between them, why not look more consistent and vote for the guy whose trying to kill you instead of doubling back on a guy you were null at best on, and town read at several points in the game? If hopeless is scum with gb, why vote him when he can just vote for onegu? the guy trying to kill him?
In fact, why draw attention to himself with such a shitty vote for no reason?(might have resulted in his own lynch)? The only way hopeless DOESNT vote for onegu, and compromises himself in such a fashion is to protect his scum buddy, who has been bussing hopeless all this time to create some distance

If hopeless is town, then hope is actually lost, and hes also insane for not voting onegu ) : cmon ritoky, yah got dis