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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 02:10 Chromatically wrote:
If GB is town, then Hopeless is like 99% mafia for coming into the thread and voting on the townie in a town-mafia lynch, so he should be lynched tomorrow. I don't see a situation where the next two lynches are GB-Hopeless in some order, and I don't see any world where they are both town. So either way we should get to final three at least.
I still feel good about GB/H1 scum. I understand there's some people feeling unconfident here but we just need to stay the course. This might be the last day we're able to lynch GB, too-- people who are scumreading him have been getting shot over time. Regardless, I'm figuring we lynch GB and H1 and win the game. And, as you said, even if one of them is town, it's almost certain they're not BOTH town.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 02:14 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 01:33 gumshoe wrote:sigh, gb has no way to win this game if hes scum, his actions are no consistent with a scummer whose about to die and invalidate all his reads / : like theres still confidence in his voice cause he thinks town can win, if hes scum with hopeless his tone would be much diffrent? But maybe I'm reading his voice all wrong T_T(this would be so much easier to acertain and convince people of in voice or video / : its just hard to translate a tone read) If gb was scum with hopeless and onegu, why did he shoot rayn? Clearly onegu did it for cred a world where I am scum this game I dont kill Rayn, I am not going to kill the only person that is town reading me this game. It would be suicide for me. Killing rayn takes pressure off of the people he was scum reading and lets them put pressure on me. They want this mislynch on me it gets them to lylo. but he claims this looks bad on hopeless, We can't know why rayn was killed, but it could just be very simple reasons. Maybe Onegu did it so he could make that argument in the thread, and it has absolutely nothing to do with the other mafia at all. Or maybe it was something else, like GB wanted to kill one of the people who was going after him hard in the thread.
I think it would be a mistake to overspeculate on the rayn nk, but I will note that there's nothing inherently wrong with it with a GB/1G/H1 team. Like, yeah, rayn wasn't captain mcuseful but those guys could have shot him, and 1G certainly had a reason to if nothing else
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 02:28 Vivax wrote:
BH why no opinion on who to lynch first between them?
I've been super duper clear on this repeatedly, said it so many times I'm kinda amazed you're confused, but even if I hadn't made it clear earlier:
On October 31 2015 07:03 Blazinghand wrote:
Huh. I was guessing gumshoe, but maybe scum think they've got a chance of lynching him. IT's not happening, though.
##vote: glowingbear
H1 is also acceptable to me today.
I'm voting GB and said "H1 is also acceptable" and I did this like 2 minute sinto the day. get your head in the game boyo
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 02:20 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 02:14 Blazinghand wrote:On November 02 2015 02:10 Chromatically wrote:
If GB is town, then Hopeless is like 99% mafia for coming into the thread and voting on the townie in a town-mafia lynch, so he should be lynched tomorrow. I don't see a situation where the next two lynches are GB-Hopeless in some order, and I don't see any world where they are both town. So either way we should get to final three at least. I still feel good about GB/H1 scum. I understand there's some people feeling unconfident here but we just need to stay the course. This might be the last day we're able to lynch GB, too-- people who are scumreading him have been getting shot over time. Regardless, I'm figuring we lynch GB and H1 and win the game. And, as you said, even if one of them is town, it's almost certain they're not BOTH town. Yep, I'm still on the GB/Hopeless idea too. I'm just arguing for the cases where it's not true, we should still lynch the other one and they shouldn't both be town. I have to go for a few hours before the lynch so I'll probably move over to GB before then since that's what it's looking like. Prevent shenannies or something I guess?
I agree that even if GB/H1 shoudl flip town, we probably need to lynch the other one. That being said, I fully expect they'll both flip scum.
On November 02 2015 02:21 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 02:15 Blazinghand wrote:On November 02 2015 02:14 Chromatically wrote:On November 02 2015 01:33 gumshoe wrote:sigh, gb has no way to win this game if hes scum, his actions are no consistent with a scummer whose about to die and invalidate all his reads / : like theres still confidence in his voice cause he thinks town can win, if hes scum with hopeless his tone would be much diffrent? But maybe I'm reading his voice all wrong T_T(this would be so much easier to acertain and convince people of in voice or video / : its just hard to translate a tone read) If gb was scum with hopeless and onegu, why did he shoot rayn? Clearly onegu did it for cred a world where I am scum this game I dont kill Rayn, I am not going to kill the only person that is town reading me this game. It would be suicide for me. Killing rayn takes pressure off of the people he was scum reading and lets them put pressure on me. They want this mislynch on me it gets them to lylo. but he claims this looks bad on hopeless, We can't know why rayn was killed, but it could just be very simple reasons. Maybe Onegu did it so he could make that argument in the thread, and it has absolutely nothing to do with the other mafia at all. Or maybe it was something else, like GB wanted to kill one of the people who was going after him hard in the thread. I think it would be a mistake to overspeculate on the rayn nk, but I will note that there's nothing inherently wrong with it with a GB/1G/H1 team. Like, yeah, rayn wasn't captain mcuseful but those guys could have shot him, and 1G certainly had a reason to if nothing else Yeah, it's not a point in favor of GB being mafia, just trying to show that it's not a reason that GB is town either.
yeah. Gb isn't mafia BECAUSE of nks, but they don't exonnerate him like some people think imo. My VCA has also shown taht it's super sensible for him to be mafia also.
On November 02 2015 02:29 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 02:28 Vivax wrote:
BH why no opinion on who to lynch first between them? dont even try this shit.
yeah fuckin vivax
On November 02 2015 02:32 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 02:29 gumshoe wrote:On November 02 2015 02:28 Vivax wrote:
BH why no opinion on who to lynch first between them? dont even try this shit. I have a preference on who to lynch first and that for good reasons I explained. It's not "shit" if I get to discuss that with BH after noting that he isn't interested in doing that.
????
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 02:40 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 02:37 gumshoe wrote:On November 02 2015 02:32 Vivax wrote:On November 02 2015 02:29 gumshoe wrote:On November 02 2015 02:28 Vivax wrote:
BH why no opinion on who to lynch first between them? dont even try this shit. I have a preference on who to lynch first and that for good reasons I explained. It's not "shit" if I get to discuss that with BH after noting that he isn't interested in doing that. You've been trying to find dirt on bh all game. It's not happening, it's not gonna work, stahp. It's only dirt cause you like to think it is, but it's just me observing that he doesn't have a preference on GB hopeless and I want him to have one and am working for it and you put things into my mouth saying I want to "throw dirt" at him.
like, I've been pushing pretty hard on GB for the past 96 hours. THAT BEING SAID, I do think they're both scum, so if H1 gets lynched today I'm not gonna be too upset, but let's be real here: they're both scum. we lynch them both and win this game. I think we lynch GB first. Some others, like gumshoe, think we should lynch H1 first. Even so, you can literally see my vote on GB. RIGHT NOW. my vote is LITERALLY on GB.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 03:25 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 03:23 Blazinghand wrote:On November 02 2015 02:28 Vivax wrote:
BH why no opinion on who to lynch first between them? I've been super duper clear on this repeatedly, said it so many times I'm kinda amazed you're confused, but even if I hadn't made it clear earlier: On October 31 2015 07:03 Blazinghand wrote:
Huh. I was guessing gumshoe, but maybe scum think they've got a chance of lynching him. IT's not happening, though.
##vote: glowingbear
H1 is also acceptable to me today. I'm voting GB and said "H1 is also acceptable" and I did this like 2 minute sinto the day. get your head in the game boyo I've read that but it's no explicit preference for GB, it's just you voting him first while having a "meh,whatever" attitude.
all this is doing is making me vaguely nervous that you're actually scum. get to the point
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 03:19 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 03:15 Chromatically wrote:On November 02 2015 03:05 gumshoe wrote:On November 02 2015 02:54 Chromatically wrote:On November 02 2015 02:50 gumshoe wrote:On November 02 2015 02:47 Chromatically wrote:
Honestly, I don't know what my preference is really (on GB/Hopeless today) so I was just planning on going with whatever most people wanted to do to prevent some crazy voteswitches if people went insane or something. I've thought about what would happen if either player flipped either alignment, and I believe that the next lynch is always the other player.
I want GB because knowing what the wagons are is nice, he's getting harder to lynch (especially if Hopeless is town and we go to LYLO), he's very likely to be mafia from play, and personal gratification.
I want Hopeless because it feels incorrect to let him live another day without playing, and because he's very likely to be mafia just from his vote yesterday.
Maybe this is getting to far ahead, but in the event that we lynched Hopeless today and he flipped mafia, I think it's pretty important that we lynch GB next and not at LYLO. That way, in the event that GB is town, we have maximum information at LYLO on the D3 wagons so we can determine what the most likely last mafia is. I guess this scenario is unlikely though because it's not LYLO if Hopeless is mafia so GB probably gets lynched.
So I'm not sure if any of these reasons is better than the others. sure we can lynch gb tommorow, as I dont see vivax getting lynched till lylo(you want a slippery one, there ya go). But yeah, we need to kill hopeless today, gb and vivax arent scum together so hopeless must be. Yeah... although it's technically possible the team is something insane like GB+ritoky I guess? It's pretty hard to see a world where it's not Hopeless (although it's pretty hard for me to see not GB too). I'm just worried that you won't go on GB again tomorrow gumshoe, you betrayed me once before after yamato  . I'm sorry ) : your right I do owe you one, if you really really really wanna kill gb I wont oppose it ok? It's just not the optimal move ) : also if the team could BE something with ritoky, wouldnt it be better to know now before lylo? Gb's kill doesn't tell us anything about that T_T I'm not entirely sure what the correct move is here. GB's kill would tell us about the wagons yesterday (which we don't get form Hopeless), so that we can start considering bus possibilities if GB was town? The only way lynching one of them before the other is a problem is if both of them are town. So, we should lynch whichever one will give us the best information to decide if the other one could be town. If GB is town, then we can start considering whether the team was stacked on him (with Hopeless) or if it's some crazy bus (even though we should lynch Hopeless next anyway). If Hopeless is town, then... I don't think we get very much about other from that? Lynching for information feels bad but I think it's the best tiebreaker? if we lynch gb and hes scum, we probally just lynch hopeless and then vivax the following day anyways, nothing really changes, if we lynch gb and hes town, same story, we dont alter course If we lynch hopeless and hes scum, again, we stay the course if we lynch hopeless and hes town, that means ethier way we have a complex bus between vivax and gb, or someone in the town circle is scum. Basically we have 4 outcomes, and only one of them has us changing course / : the only information that matters is the one you have to act on, therefore if you lynch for info, hopeless is the superior choice.
Wait, whey are we abandoning the H1 lynch if GB flips scum/town? I feel like we were all together on this before the Onegu flip: we lynch Onegu, Gb, and H1. Now the Onegu flip happens and everyone's freaking out. Why are we freaking out? Things are going great. I mean, yeah, vivax has turned into a suspicious motherfucker, but we have a spare lynch for him anyways. I think we got this on lockdown.
On November 02 2015 02:47 Chromatically wrote:
Honestly, I don't know what my preference is really (on GB/Hopeless today) so I was just planning on going with whatever most people wanted to do to prevent some crazy voteswitches if people went insane or something. I've thought about what would happen if either player flipped either alignment, and I believe that the next lynch is always the other player.
I want GB because knowing what the wagons are is nice, he's getting harder to lynch (especially if Hopeless is town and we go to LYLO), he's very likely to be mafia from play, and personal gratification.
I want Hopeless because it feels incorrect to let him live another day without playing, and because he's very likely to be mafia just from his vote yesterday.
Maybe this is getting to far ahead, but in the event that we lynched Hopeless today and he flipped mafia, I think it's pretty important that we lynch GB next and not at LYLO. That way, in the event that GB is town, we have maximum information at LYLO on the D3 wagons so we can determine what the most likely last mafia is. I guess this scenario is unlikely though because it's not LYLO if Hopeless is mafia so GB probably gets lynched.
So I'm not sure if any of these reasons is better than the others.
Yeah support for the GB wagon has been gradually shot by scum for the past few days.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 03:29 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 03:27 Blazinghand wrote:On November 02 2015 03:25 Vivax wrote:On November 02 2015 03:23 Blazinghand wrote:On November 02 2015 02:28 Vivax wrote:
BH why no opinion on who to lynch first between them? I've been super duper clear on this repeatedly, said it so many times I'm kinda amazed you're confused, but even if I hadn't made it clear earlier: On October 31 2015 07:03 Blazinghand wrote:
Huh. I was guessing gumshoe, but maybe scum think they've got a chance of lynching him. IT's not happening, though.
##vote: glowingbear
H1 is also acceptable to me today. I'm voting GB and said "H1 is also acceptable" and I did this like 2 minute sinto the day. get your head in the game boyo I've read that but it's no explicit preference for GB, it's just you voting him first while having a "meh,whatever" attitude. all this is doing is making me vaguely nervous that you're actually scum. get to the point Read my posts about why I wanna lynch GB first, which I made right before upsetting you so gravely with those posts of mine, and tell me if you're convinced would be a start. Or think of something that makes 1 lynch better, information wise or otherwise. Why? Cause I want to kill GB and like to know who's on the stable train of killing him.
I'm sticking on GB unless it is necessary to swap to H1 to prevent a retarded lynch (like, say, gumshoe or myself) from happening. I actually did like an enormous analysis post that maybe you forgot which is here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=173#3451
Here are some highlights:
On October 31 2015 06:56 Blazinghand wrote:
But the important thing here is how crappy the reasoning in this entire post is. Like, Onegu REALLY is struggling to find some justification to lynch yam over gb. If they're both town, would Onegu really care about this? of course not. So he starts faking justifiction.
On October 31 2015 06:56 Blazinghand wrote:
Why is Onegu trying to paint Yam in a bad light? At the end of the day, Onegu ends up on H1, effectively opting out of the discourse and not like doing anything. As scum, he could have JUST done that and come out looking better. Instead, he goes to the mat, so to speak, saying he was video gaming with Yam and Yam wasn't playing Mafia when he could have been. This seems like a huge unnecessary risk to... well, to save GB. To make Yam get lynched over GB. Like, there's no reason for Onegu to do ANYTHING there if it's "GB is town, Yam is town, town is lynching between them"
Instead, Onegu appears as some of that strange resistance that crops up every time GB is on the chopping block.
And that's not counting the VCA or other stuff I've said before that. I'm too lazy to dig it all up. Don't worry dude
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 03:34 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 03:28 GlowingBear wrote:On November 02 2015 03:01 Chromatically wrote:On November 02 2015 00:46 GlowingBear wrote:
After I die, think twice before doing meta cases. Hint: they suck.
Gut feelings say hopeless is town. Facts point out to him being mafia (him voting me like that today is bad).
If you trust gumshoe's appeal to me, he is town. If not, he is always mafia with Onegu. I trust it. I don't think someone can get that low and swear on the life of others and be lying. Really, this is my reason to town read him.
After I die, kill Vivax. Then think twice about BH. I'm town. If I die today, will you reach MYLO? If yes, kill Vivax. If no, get rid of hopeless so you guys can clear your heads.
Read the latest student mafia so you can see I can be this burned out as town. I was town there.
I will vote Vivax because he keeps saying he is ready to in scum read me and was going against gumshoe automatically after I've brought that case. There was no real interaction between them before he decided my case was good and no tral interaction before he decided gumshoe was town again and I was mafia. He's most likely to be mafia after all.
##Vote: Vivax
Still, I have no idea why I'm mafia besides the meta case. Can anyone elaborate on this? What does the underlined mean here? Hopeless is always a question mark. If you can afford a second mislynch (after I die), go for hopeless. If not, then go for Vivax which I think is way scummier. Guys, is this a scumslip? If you're town, then we're in LYLO and can't afford a mislynch after GB dies. If you're mafia, then we can afford a mislynch after GB dies. Maybe he just isn't thinking about the game at all and didn't count the number of players left..? But why would he even bring up the scenario that we could have another mislynch after him? If he's mafia and forgot that he has to count himself as a mislynch?
Scumslips are generally not a "real" thing-- town makes them about as often as scum, in my experience. Bear in mind, I still think GB is scum, but just saying: he's not scum for "slipping" that he's scum and not town in his analysis of how many mislynches we have. People make mistakes all the time.
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
I'm here via phone until deadline if shenannies of some sort are needed
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
Doesn't it only apply if gb is not scum
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 06:37 GlowingBear wrote:
:/
Hey
I was thinking about this
When Jesus died on the cross, whose fault was it? The people that killed him or his because he couldn't prove his innocence?
If you're going to be a martyr, at least be Socrates and not Jesus:
![[image loading]](http://static.existentialcomics.com/comics/theApology1.png)
![[image loading]](http://static.existentialcomics.com/comics/theApology2.png)
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 06:55 ritoky wrote:
hey gb, if i've been wrong for like 75% of the game on you. my b. i owe you a chicken sammich.
Don't worry we got dis
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
Well.
We should still lynch h1 imo
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 07:57 ritoky wrote:
i did the sickest BH impression for like 72 hours that game too, couldn't handle holding it up all game. BH is just too massive for me to handle.
PHRASING
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 02 2015 08:21 Chromatically wrote:
I feel like we're getting to the point of the game where it's actually important to not post reads during the night so that mafia can't use them to direct their NK.
it might make most sense to post them all right b4 EoN
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
On November 03 2015 02:26 Vivax wrote:
It's useless that you talk to me like I need convincing given I know my alignment and know for a FACT that Onegu got bussed.
And I think the guy who profited a lot from that lynch was ritoky, even though his filter is really lackluster oterhwise.
he did, but couldn't he have just stayed on GB, who was town, and moved us into LYLO right away?
I guess no matter what there was some bad play from scum not pushing us into LYLO early either using the double lynch D2 or the wagons D3, but at the same time, it seems like ritoky who was very pro-lynching-gb would have looked fine if he stayed on gb, no?
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Blazinghand
United States25553 Posts
Like from my point of view although I was fine with the gb lynch, I spent a lot of effort trying to get people not to bail from the Onegu lynch and to get people to join it. Ritoky has a ton of "plausible deniability" about not being persuaded by the words of me and various other pro-lynch-onegu people. I guess what I'm getting at is, if Ritoky is scum, why take this leap and get onto Onegu? I get that it makes him look townie, but there's a REASON it makes him look townie, and that's that it's a bad move for scum to make. It's not just a bus, it's a bus that basically took Onegu from not being lynched to be ing lynched, if you think this is what happened.
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EPT
