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On September 28 2015 13:25 Damdred wrote:
Anyway my question earlier wasn't about your read now but rather your read yesterday leading to today. You had palmar as pretty hard town then me and geript towards the bottom.
I'm not really sure how I wasn't clear enough.
I had pegged geript as a small chance of being scum, but I was extremely confident that you're the last scum. Last day I was also extremely confident Palmar is town, because I thought that even with the reasons I've pointed out today, it'd be extremely unlikely for him to be scum.
I was fully prepared to just give you hell today but given the night kill (wifom yes, but still I believe it is more likely to come from Palmar), and his continuance from the attitude of late D4, + his reaction at the start of D5, showing he's completely fine with lynching me without hesitation... like those are things you can't just ignore as much as I want to be sure about my case and read on you last cycle. I still do think logically it is much more likely that you are scum, but the feeling I get from Palmar's play combined with knowing that it's perfectly within Palmar's reach to play like this as scum makes me have to seriously consider that as an option and push it accordingly.
If we assume a situation where you're town and Palmar is scum, and I had gone for this last day with the attitude of "I don't give a fuck about anything I will hardtunnel Damdred until the end", then the game would be 100% lost before the day even started. I'm just considering all possibilities and doing my best to arrive at the conclusion to stop this retarded throw which began with yesterday's geript lynch.
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You mean best voting logic to be town?
I'm the only one (except Moosy) who was trying to get Wile lynched D1.
Yes, I ended up voting jat because it wasn't happening. So did you and Palmar.
D2 irrelevant
D3 irrelevant
D4 you voted for jat (town flip), and Palmar voted for geript (town flip), I voted for you (unknown so far).
So if anything, Palmar has the worst votes, and I have the best ones. If you consider what the goal of the game as town is, at least.
But of course it means nothing if you pull the "Ceph doublebus card" and think Palmar is just a shit townie (which he according to himself, is not at all, but he has only voted for townies outside of the free scum lynch and marv rolling over?)
I'd like to point out that you were considering that jat would doublebus as well, when he claimed he sure as hell wouldn't do that. Now apply the same logic on me, except that I ALSO voted for Wile D1. Like if I'm scum, do you honestly think my aim is to eliminate my own team as the first thing in the game?
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Players that voted for me at some point: Koshi, marv, Onegu, Palmar, geript, justanothertownie
Players that moved off me at some point: Koshi (town), marv (scum), palmar (???)
So.... if Palmar is scum, that means I can't be scum, and there were two scum trying to get me killed at first.
If I am scum, it means that in the most convoluted scenario ever, marv (with absolutely no fucking thread presence at all) moved off me and alone caused me to not get lynched?
Like no, just no. I'm not even going to bother to argue this further.
As for initially voting not mattering, maybe it doesn't for those players that use it as a tool of pressure and change it 5 times during D1. Go look at how many times I voted during D1. Yes, twice. On Wile, and changed only to jat towards end because Wile was not happening and I still considered jat an option back then. Like you can paint it to look bad all you want, but I'd appreciate if you'd try to be a bit more objective.
As for the marv bus, sure it's not a bus, because trying to push marv at eod1 would've been a clusterfuck and caused even more chaos for the vote, which is such a fucking townie thing to do. D2 = Irrelevant. D3, I wasn't around earlier and posted my shit anyway when I could have just not done that. And during the whole game since I called out marv, I kept mentioning "I still want to lynch marv", when you kept asking me. But sure, not a bus at all. Especially because I pushed SO FUCKING MANY TOWNIES MEANWHILE.
Like just please, think about it for one second. It's not that hard to grasp.
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Like I understand how you're seeing the situation, but you're not thinking of it objectively nor as a whole at all. You're completely focusing on the fact that marv happened to return to the thread late, as far as I recall he unvoted as one of the first things as he returned, and it happened to be on me because he had tried to push / pressure me lightly earlier for my absence. Which he incidentally, keeps up for the whole game.
Fucking mvp scumduo, having a contest who gets the other killed? Especially continuing to do so after Wile is dead?
I'm really starting to get frustrated with your line of thought here, sorry.
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Well, I have to leave now. I won't be around until about 1 hour before the deadline assuming the bus doesn't fuck up along the way. But once I get home and get everything plugged in I'll join the discussion again. Hf meanwhile and make Palmar talk.
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Fuck you Palmar for making this a 1v1 between you and me, you know you basically scumclaimed to me with your posts and you're relying on the fact how well well you've been read and using the time I'm away to discredit me to the extent you can.
Even now you're saying you haven't properly read my and Damdred's filters which shows how absolutely baffling your approach to the lylo is.
I can more than well admit at this point it does seem I was wrong on Damdred, because you're being so obvious right now.
Your bigger post is a textbook scum!Ceph play. It's exactly what I do when I'm scum. You make a case where any ambigious facts are painted as "This is probably the only thing that could be looked in his favour", you ignore all the obvious statements and information that is favourable even though they've been posted so many times it should be clear as day (But not to you, because you don't even fucking read the filters properly, because you're that confident about not needing to), then raising the most convoluted ideas of all time about a point to make it suspicious. Like, I'm scum because I managed to peg onegu as town? Not to mention the multiple instances of "There are clearly more ways for this to be viewed favourably towards Ceph, but I'm going to raise the one and only extremely unlikely possibility which makes him look worse, and make it look like it's the only and obvious possibility." It infuriates me so much to see you do exactly what I do as scum and I don't want you to get away with that.
Why the fuck would I concentrate on defending a townie that is barely getting any traction at all and in no way a serious lynch candidate? What the fuck does my town-read on a player that died N1 to a vigshot matter in the remainder of the game? It's the most irrelevant thing in my filter you could be interested in.
You say that "if you were Mafia, you would've been 100% content with me lynching Damdred and rolling with it."
No, you would never ever have sat on your ass and gone "Oh well, I guess I was wrong / Ceph is right and we'll lynch Damdred today." You know I would have called you out for that even for how sure I was about Dam, because you know that even if I can push someone very hard, I don't blindly tunnel into someone until they die. So obviously you'd go for a more convoluted play, especially as you could use me picking up on you as a point against me, and knowing that you have the higher cred of us two makes that play a no-brainer for you to take. I know how calmly and how often you've rolled well in endgame scenarios as scum. And you knew that only me or jat would pick up on you that hard, but leaving me alive is significantly easier of an 1v1 for you than going vs jat.
Like you've had damdred town all game since the start, and you still claim you've just read the first few pages of his filter. It's like you saw his defense for Wile and decided "I'll just think he's town for the whole game based on this", which is just absurd. You wouldn't lock onto a townread that hard because of such a minor thing if you were town. Not to the extent that you're not considering him an option at 1 mislynch nor at LYLO.
You keep talking about how I delayed my marv read, when I have multiple times pointed out already why that is the case, and you know it if you read my filter as you claimed to. Yet you ignore all of those times and just pick out the worst you can find. I've said multiple times that I stopped and didn't start pushing marv with what I had on him up to that point at eod1 because rayn was telling me it's not fruitful to do so at that point, which I agreed with, because there was no way marv was going to get lynched D1, and spamming the thread with my marv read to create more chaos at that point, as my cred alone at that point would never, ever have gotten him lynched that day, would've been absolutely pointless and just given scum more control over the mislynch of their choice.
I've also explained multiple times that N1 I did not feel the need to participate because I was going to live through regardless, D2 we had self-claimed Wile by the time I was around, I was not going to die N2 with how much conftown there was around, and I posted my case on D3 when I came around, even if the lynch seemed to be locked at that point.
And if I hadn't posted? You would've called even more bullshit on me. It's like, if I didn't post it at all and just voted, I'd be still getting shit about being a pure sheep, and when I do, I get called out for trying to cred. I don't need to get any extra cred for the marv lynch. I know I'm not the main cause who made it happen, but what I've said and what is true that I've been correct about him since the start, and shown that opinion to others very clearly as well, constantly reminding of my intent of wanting to lynch marv. That is something you can't deny no matter how many things you want to ignore.
Yeah, I've mentioned multiple times I like to bus as mafia. So do many other players. The thing which me and jat pointed out multiple times (which you again, decide to just fucking ignore), is that while we'd both be completely fine with bussing, we aren't retarded enough to play this game with the goal of "Kill all my scumbuddies before going for town". And that's what you're proposing right now. That I'd go for Wile + marv since the start of the game, with the amount of cred I had at the start of the game? You're not that stupid Palmar. You just have to say that because you're the dirty fucking scum here. You saw how jat flipped town. Go figure which is more likely, that I, who not also had extremely similar timing and reads with jat regarding scum + voted and tried to push Wile on D1, is going flip scum? It's not happening. I've pointed out enough how stupid of a case that is, and you know it.
There's absolutely no way you're not scum with your read progress and painted case towards me. And this is not OMGUS, even if I know that you will try to paint it as such.
Today will be simple rit & dam, you vote for Palmar, or you lose the game.
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I know I shouldn't get mad but it infuriates me if I'm going to lose to you while you do something that I constantly do as scum and basically claim scum to me because you're so confident I won't be able to convince rit & Dam to vote for you.
It feels like you're taunting me because you're so sure you can get away with it.
I just don't want to lose a won game in this manner, even if you've objectively looking played a very good scumgame.
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ritoky, I just want you to realize that you should not think about one single point as something why it's not a possibility.
I understand more than well enough if you want to respect Palmar's play for that to be unlikely in your opinion, but do think this: If you hold him that high in regard, would he as town have voted jat d1, got his geript mislynch d4, and now push me the way he is doing?
Not to mention you can't disagree he hasn't exactly been the cause of correct lynches happening, which if you respect Palmar's ability of play, you should be expecting that to a decent extent at least if you assume he's town.
Are you going to hang on those minor points and deduce he's not scum because it would be unlikely for a scum!Palmar to do that, or are you going to take into account similar points regarding town!Palmar that he should've achieved/done but hasn't?
Think of it as a whole.
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On September 29 2015 04:54 Palmar wrote:
Nothing, literally nothing I wrote was to discredit you. I simply brought up reasons why I think you're mafia. Feel free to respond with reasons as to why I am wrong.
I did bring up the reasons. You can't deny you're not trying to discredit me, when you ignore the reasons I've posted several, several times already, bringing up points that I've adressed multiple times again and again. But you keep ignoring those. You're not making your case objectively at all, you're making it from a "Ceph is scum" mindset. As in, you're only picking up any point you can twist against me, and ignoring any point in my favour. (And again, ignoring the fact I've addressed most of your points multiple times, but you keep bringing them up again while not regarding my defense towards those at all.)
On September 29 2015 04:54 Palmar wrote:
I don't lie about what I read and what I didn't read. If I read part of damdred's filter and most of yours and reach a conclusion based on that, my time is better spent arguing for that conclusion.
And how are your conclusions based on imperfect information any useful? The more you ignore of the big picture the more likely you are wrong. You can't deny that. And you'd care more about that if you were town, because as already shown, you've been wrong in this game as much as you'd like to trust yourself. If you truly wanted town to win, you'd put a proper effort in re-evaluating things after how yesterday went. But you're not doing so.
On September 29 2015 04:54 Palmar wrote:
I don't ignore anything, you literally went awol for 70+ hours when the marv thing was happening and you've been trying to claim credit for that lynch. You deserve none. Again, instead of yelling, try to point out what I ignored.
And yes I read filters. Stop trying to act like I don't. No one in this game has read every filter word for word.
And this also where you're painting things. I have not claimed I was the reason marv got lynched. I had my part in it as a voter just as anyone else. I've pointed out multiple times (among other things you intentionally keep ignoring), that even while I wasn't the main reason marv got lynched, I've been correct on him and pointed towards him, as well as making it clear I want to lynch him way before almost everyone else in this game (with the exception of jat), and I've stuck to that read for the whole game since I picked up upon it. If I don't deserve "any credit" for being correct on marv, then you sure as fuck don't deserve it the slightest bit either.
On September 29 2015 04:54 Palmar wrote:Because it's a magical read. How about you just explain why you townread him instead of whining about me talking about it. There's only one faction in the game that has magical reads 
Like all the townreads you've never bothered to explain? Yeah, I guess you're scum then
Or your extraordinary reasoning about how you're correct on someone. "It's a town that I didn't lynch." Of course you wouldn't be lynching all the townies, you're shooting half of them. You can't claim being "correct on a townread" when you didn't lynch someone who was never a lynch target (re: scott).
On September 29 2015 04:54 Palmar wrote:
Give me 3 examples of this. I don't believe they exist. I'm not a particularly good scum player. My general strategy is to buy 2-3 days and then hope I've left no traces to my team (or go for a big play such as having a teammate shoot me).
And yes, I absolutely would've done that.
Don't have the time to dig up on old games for quotes at this point, but even in voice mafia not too long ago when you were scum with me in the same team and we two others got out of it early on, you almost managed to solocarry it through, only losing at lylo. So don't say you're not capable of that. You've done it before. And you had no traces onto your team then either, as you don't have now.
On September 29 2015 04:54 Palmar wrote:
If you think I don't make townreads like that based on one little thing then you don't know me at all. And it's not just that. He came out of the gate swinging (which is very unusual for scum). You yourself even called him out on it on day 1 (hey look! I read!). I also liked the way he approached the geript defense.
You might be able to make initial townreads based on small things, but you would not stick to something like that for a whole game.
On September 29 2015 04:54 Palmar wrote:
If you're town Ceph, your focus should be on convincing me to lynch damdred, not antagonizing me please.
I'm not antagonizing you. You're the last scum remaining, and to win I have to get to you lynched no matter what.
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My Onegu read was an earlygame read where I felt based on the overall tone of his posts he was more likely to be town than scum. I don't remember him that well, but I recall playing with him before and being very high-post count but not achieve-much style of person that gets mislynched a fair bit.
While most of his posts weren't very useful (which could be said for many others), he had a few reasonable posts which pointed towards him actually trying to think about the game, which made me lean town on him early on.
If you expect something magical and more accurate, you're stupid. With his amount of posts and content, there's not really much to go by with. I was correct on him, it doesn't make me mafia if others weren't pegging him as town.
Like seriously, you should see how many times you've called me mafia this game for being "too correct". It's fucking absurd.
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Also re: Palmar:
I had no intention of wanting to 1v1 you, but with how you pushed your "case" on me, I just don't see how you could not be scum. And if I want to win, I have to lynch scum. Thus I have no other option than try and get you lynched.
If I was mafia, I could've concentrated on pushing Dam much more than I have. But I'm going with what I believe to be correct.
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OH THANK GOD. I just realized we have one hour left, I thought we had like 2 minutes left....
Whew. No wonder none of you three weren't more concerned at this point.
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It's not "Palmar makes a case on me", it's "The way Palmar played as a whole D3-D4".
As in there are specific actions that point towards a scum!Palmar play rather than a town!Palmar play.
@Damdred: At that point I was more concerned about if I'm being too suspicious of Palmar and wifoming myself.
As in, I was leaning towards Palmar more and more but you were still a viable option.
Couldn't really make it clearer toward either way until Palmar showed up and posted, because the key thing for me was how Palmar would go about his "proper play" of today. (As in when he actually shows up and makes content).
Short ver: I did consider it a fair possibility you might be scum at that point still, but I was leaning towards Palmar more and more as our conversation progressed earlier.
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EBWOP: I obviously mean D4-D5. My mistake. (@ritoky)
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On September 29 2015 05:49 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2015 05:43 Cephiro wrote:
It's not "Palmar makes a case on me", it's "The way Palmar played as a whole D3-D4".
As in there are specific actions that point towards a scum!Palmar play rather than a town!Palmar play.
Assuming you have read his filter, give me 3 examples of why he is scum before yesterday. Like I have said, I also don't understand why you think palmar's case is unreasonable because it is literally just quotes of your play, accurate characterizations, and him explaining why he thinks that is mafia. Like he could be wrong on it making you mafia, but factually his case is fine. Hence why I am having trouble grasping why you dropped a read you desperately wanted everyone to sheep to take a 1v1 me bro stance.
1) I did not drop a read that I wanted people to sheep. I truly believed Damdred was the last remaining scum, and accordingly wanted to end the game yesterday. Didn't end up happening, of course I'd have to be careful and re-evaluate with it being LYLO.
2) I didn't say everything about Palmar's case is unreasonable, but the way he presents it is unreasonable. He has some valid points yes, but at least half of those are things I have addressed so fucking many times already that I'm losing count, and it's starting to irritate me to keep repeating the same shit over and over again when it's already there for everyone to see. (Which, if he has read my filter as he has claimed to, would already know)
3) I'm not taking a 1v1 stance because I wanted to, but the fact is that I consider Palmar the last remaining scum, and I believe he's not pushing the cases on me with a pure motive. What do you expect me to do? Start talking about damdred? No, I have to push for the scum to get lynched. I want to win this game, and it just so happens that I have to fight Palmar for it, as he's currently pushing me and I'm pushing him.
As I pointed out before, I don't believe there are very specific things that point toward Palmar being scum earlier in the game. It's more about how differently he started pushing cases D4/D5 compared to his attitude D1-D3. D1-D3 sure, he's fairly active, posts opinions, asks a bit of something every now and then, but as I said before, he does not heavily commit to anything. Which also gives him way more room and options to play with. And because no-one called him out for it because his content was reasonable enough to believe he's town without further pushing, he never did.
Like I can go look through his filter for posts and point out specific posts that are likely to come from scum Palmar, but as I admitted before his D1-D3 play is very solid because he hasn't had to heavily commit. Most of his posts could come from either alignment and as a whole they feel consistent enough which is exactly the reason why me nor anyone else hasn't considered him a valid lynch target so far. I also feel that Palmar has been concentrating on the wrong things too much in hindsight as I already pointed out as well. I explained how it's weird that things that other town players who could easily be argued to have less mafia experience than he does, picked up upon multiple things he did not. I don't feel that Palmar ever was very correct nor pushed mafia during D1-D3. It's more of a "I'd expect better performance from him", thing, which the D4-D5 play intensifies.
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On September 29 2015 05:58 Palmar wrote:
ceph still waiting for "all these townreads I never explained"
Don't have the time to go through your filter and point out specific posts but I am very sure you never provided any proper reasoning for Koshi being town (as in the same sense as my Onegu read), and just ignored him since he's not worth your time.
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Unfortunately I can't recall all of those right now (such as jat, and I guess you sheeped dam's argument for Wile counts), but it was a comment mainly because of the sentence where you pointed out what reads you've been correct in and which not, which included that were never really relevant (like the scott thing I pointed out, it's not really correctly reading someone if you never lynch someone never up for lynch).
Sorry if you took it as if most of your townreads wouldn't have been talked about, didn't mean to come off that way. Just pointed out they weren't all completely valid either.
In any case, we're about to run out of time. Lynch Palmar or lose the game.
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If you people aren't going to change your mind then town just lost the game. Just think of all the reasoning I provided, there's no way in hell I'm scum and it should be obvious.
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Like I can't believe out of all places you people are about to mislynch me in fucking LYLO. For fuck sake.
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Fucking mvp scum doublebus x2 (jat and me), fucking town deserves to lose this, throw of the year.
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EPT
