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On September 26 2015 01:52 Palmar wrote:
I am in no way certain geript is scum, it's just by far the most likely.
Seriously Palmar, step it up if you want to keep your townread.
If you're town, why would you be content of not putting more effort and trying to solve the game instead of letting it go on?
Sure, geript leads the vote at the moment and it may be the result you prefer, but why aren't you trying harder convincing others about it? It feels like your attitude is just "meh, if I'm wrong I'll deal with it tomorrow, a mislynch isn't a big deal."
Like I honestly don't see why you're not trying to convince me or ritoky to go on geript if you truly think we should be lynching him today.
Why do you think damdred is town so strongly? Have you even taken a look at any of what I've posted against him?
Like fuck, if you're town then play like one and don't make this harder than this has to be. You're making me doubt my read on you.
I don't see why you'd assume that I haven't read everything that has been going on when I'm here and actively participating. I'm not trying to throw dirt on you, I'm saying that if you're town, you should be more interested in solving and ending the game. And I'm asking you to step it up, because I believe you're town. But you keep replying with a lack of interest as long as geript is getting lynched. He's at 2 votes for fuck sake, you can't seriously think he's about to get lynched if you're not going to do more about it. And I'm honestly wondering and calling you out why you're not trying to do something about it.
Vote Damdred if you're not able to defend him after reading my case.
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On September 26 2015 02:06 Palmar wrote:
Hell, if damdred is mafia, his optimal play (if possible) is to defend geript and lynch ceph, shoot me, then let ritoky and geript tinfoil lynch you.
Just please look at this Palmar.
If you look at this objectively, you'd see this is exactly what he's been doing for most of this day.
He's been defending geript and talking about his townread on him all the time and saying he shouldn't be lynched.
Earlier in the day (and the previous cycles), he's been trying to set me up for a mislynch for quite a decent while already, downplaying and trying to discredit most of the things I've been saying. Now I've been solid to the extent he hasn't really been able to do that, so he's had to just sit down and watch instead of being able to go for a strong push on me, there isn't anything he could do that on because I'm that clearly way more town for a player from an objective perspective.
Like how is him sitting around and saying "I think geript is town", when you people aren't changing your minds about it productive? Like I've said multiple times now to everyone, the focus should be on getting your scumread lynched. Which is what damdred already admit he's not doing. And he's not doing it now either.
Don't you agree that for a scumdred, having a towngeript lynch happen while he opposes it is a fairly good position? He's not able to get the mislynch on me anymore, so that's his best possible play left. Key point: He doesn't care who gets lynched, he "cares" about who doesn't get lynched. That alone should tell you how much of a mafia play he's doing. If geript gets lynched today, and if he flips town, it means he has pretty much any/all options open for D5. It doesn't matter who he ends up on as long as it's not himself. HE DOES NOT NEED TO GET ANYONE LYNCHED, HE NEEDS TO AVOID GETTING LYNCHED IF HE IS SCUM. THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT HE IS DOING.
Just please believe me on this one and vote for Damdred.
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You don't need to disregard everything you think, but your case on geript is not as strong as mine on Damdred, and you're not pushing your geript case either, you're just content with waiting having only 2 votes on geript. I'm clearly the one out of us two who is more confident in their read.
I might be wrong. You could also be wrong. Everyone is wrong sometimes.
I'm more confident than you are that I'm right, and I've made case to back it up. You haven't pushed for your target in the sense that I have. If you're as sure about geript being mafia as I am about damdred being mafia, you should show it with your actions, which you aren't.
At the moment it's more about why you're not willing to vote damdred over geript.
For what I can see, these are the reasons:
1) You prefer to stick with your opinion that the Wile thing Damdred pointed out is more likely to come from a townDred than a scumDred.
2) I already proved how the actions you talked about make him more likely mafia than town.
3) Even if you happen to be wrong about damdred and he is scum, it doesn't make you a terrible or a bad player by any extent (which is what you seem to think of as an issue).
Unless you're willing to show the confidence you have in your geript read as I do with my Damdred read, you should believe in me (or if not me, in all the points I've posted that point out how Damdred is scum). Otherwise you should be going about more strongly about getting geript killed.
I've done everything I can to present my reasoning for Damdred being scum. There's just simply nothing more for me to provide, except to try and talk you over to vote for him to get him lynched, which is exactly what I'm doing right now.
I want to win this game, and I firmly believe it's over as a town win if we lynch damdred today. But I can't do it alone no matter how sure I am, I need your votes to make it happen.
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Waiting for when it's relevant? z_z
I didn't need to put this amount of effort into getting marv lynched because he just rolled over.
D2 was a freebie.
Day 1 I tried but I didn't have enough content to make a case as strong as I can now to get wile killed, and marv was off the list and would've just cluttered the eod1 up and caused chaos instead.
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I've done everything I can for today. We have a few minutes left.
Just please think well as you make your decision. I'm confident that my case is the best case around, and people haven't argued against it either. If everyone agrees it's a good case, then there isn't really any reason to not vote accordingly.
I'm playing this game to win, I'm not playing this game to not lose. I want to lynch scum today and win today, and this is the best I can do about it today. I know that it can be irritating to think about losing to a possibly scum geript or a possibly scum jat because you dislike their play or whatever, but think about it objectively and look at how strong my case is.
Let's lynch Damdred and end this tonight. I believe in you fellow townies.
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The first 2 pages of damdred's filter are close to irrelevant compared to all the newer content. He's just as much away as geript is. Damdred is not here trying to argue against his lynch, because he knows he can't. He's clearly more involved in this game than geript is, so geript fucking off is much more understandable. Damdred would be trying his hardest if he believed he still had a chance. But he's not around to do so. So he's just praying that you people stick with geript as this point.
Please believe me and lynch scum with me ;_;
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Excuse me as I go weep in a corner. I TRIED. I DID ALL I COULD.
Sorry I wasn't any better, or sorry that you all didn't believe me z_z
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But yeah, I'll check in at some point late tomorrow but don't expect me to do much. I invested so much in trying to make that lynch happen and I'm out of steam now :/
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I know it's not a guarantee I'm right, I'm just really disappointed both in myself for not being able to convince you and then a bit in you all for not believing me after all that. But it can't be helped.
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Been away for the first half since I didn't feel motivated at all after trying my hardest before the last lynch and still not being able to get anything done. Also because I'm still at my grandparents and it's not a long visit, so wanted to spend time with them as much as possible.
Currently my logic says I should be voting for Damdred, and this is what I mostly support as well, for reasons given previously. My gut feeling on the other hand is Palmar, and if it had been around 95/5 in favour of lynching Damdred before I'm sitting at around 80/20 currently, making me really hesitate to vote yet.
I tried to reason the nightkill, but it makes sense from both perspectives.
Palmar PoV: He ignored me trying to convince him yesterday to some extent. I'm not saying he didn't provide any reasoning for doing so, but it wasn't as solid as it could've been, and left me with a feeling of "I'm just going to do what I want / what I need", rather than "I listened to you but I just don't agree enough to follow your suggestion"
Jat kill makes sense from a palmar pov as jat was already to some extent suspicious of him, even if not much, whereas the remainder of us alive had him pegged as a very strong townread. So he'd eliminate the one likely to go after him the most, and keep two viable targets around. What makes me especially suspect this is the fact that even yesterday, he didn't really properly disagree with my case, but he still seemed fairly defensive of Damdred. And the first thing he does today is point out that I need to get killed "but I'll look into filters just in case". With the amount of reasoning he's provided for me as mafia, I'm calling complete bullshit on going through filters and just naming me for the sake of naming me. Whether that's a town palmar not giving a fuck or scum Palmar rolling with agenda, I'm not entirely sure.
The thing is, there aren't really many logical holes in his play, because he hasn't heavily committed to anything. He's around to give his opinion, ask something a bit on so on, but at no point has he had to take extremely firm stances toward anything, nor has he been pushed for it because his play on a general level has still seemed town-like even without extreme committing. And the thing is, I can perfectly see this play coming from a scum Palmar, even if I do feel it's more likely to be a town Palmar. But there's nothing in his filter that makes me think "scum Palmar would never ever do this" either. Also Palmar's reads have been shit this game, and while everyone has bad games and is very wrong every now and then, I wouldn't expect a player with his experience to be this wrong about so many players, given how many other players picked up on things he did not. (Knowing that jat was town helps me in this regard as well, since I feel much more confident about having picked up on marv / Wile for the correct reasons, instead of just having been lucky and arriving at the right conclusion with bad logic, as I was really unsure if jat was so correct because of his own merit, or if he had the knowledge while being mafia.)
Then there's Damdred. Jat kill is not as optimal from his point of view, but it still supports him in certain ways. For example, jat was one of the players last day who seemed the most ready to go on Damdred after reading my case. Also, seeing how Palmar didn't feel like co-operating with me at all, he could easily make the conclusion that keeping Palmar around is a fair chance of having someone to oppose me and create extra wifom, considering that if the vote becomes a 2-2, it's enough if he has just one person to support him.
Palmar's actions today make me lean more scum on him before, as it's pretty much exactly what I'd expect from him if he's scum. While damdred on the other hand is also making a play that I'd expect from scum (upping effort as he survived last lynch, trying to seem as townie as possible), i feel some genuinity from all the small posts he makes pointing out things, even if all of them aren't good at all.
(Also seriously, I've said this way too many times by now, why the fuck do you try to make anything out of my meta with my last games being more than 2+ years old, and by the way you worded your post you seem to be saying "Ceph is playing a little bit differently than last game he was town in, so he must be scum now", which is absolutely fucking retarded.) If you are that interested in trying to figure me out with meta (which you by the way, never ever will), you could read all my games from the start and get into the conclusion that my play both as scum and town have an extremely wide range both regarding content, activity, and the genius/retardedness of my actions.
Logic is telling me to stick with Damdred. My gut feeling is telling me to go with Palmar. I'm really not sure at this point, and I hope any extra posts either of you will write will help me decide correctly.
I'll also be traveling back tomorrow and won't be home until around an hour before lynch deadline at most, but once I arrive I'll be around until we lynch whoever we end up lynching, so don't you dare to lynch me for not being around or "fucking off" while I'm not able to participate.
I saw damdred had some questions pointed at me, so I'll reply those in a short manner before going to check out the red moon eclipse thing and then going to sleep.
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On September 27 2015 12:37 Damdred wrote:
Ceph when you return, why do you vote wile but later on when talking to rayn tell him if wile comes back and answers it will probably tilt your read? And you seem so defeated with the wile lynch before even really pushing it?
1) Because obviously when someone addresses questions I point at them, it is likely to affect my read on them in a way or another. Could cause me to lean more town on them, more scum or them, or not change it either way.
Tilt = Changing it slightly in either direction
2) Not really at first, but when I'm one of the mislynch wagons, and I believe there's at least one more mislynch wagon that I'm trying to avoid (Moosy), and no-one seems to give a fuck about what I say even after repeating myself, there's only so long you can stay optimistic about trying to get something done. I didn't have the thread presence to take control of where the lynch was going. I did not have as much material to push Wile as I had to push you last cycle. There were more players that I would've had to convince, and I had to ensure my own survival as well. It ended up with me just having to try and say what I thought of the situation and hope someone listens to me, and that time my voice didn't carry enough, thanks to everyone that thought I'm scummy because I wasn't around for the middle of the D1 cycle. (Fucking great logic, confirmt scum for not being around when you want me to)
On September 27 2015 12:41 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2015 05:57 Cephiro wrote:On September 17 2015 05:56 Wile E. Coyote wrote:
I was literally about to vote geript or on onegu who I feel definitely deserves presure. Then this shit happens Onegu lynch is highly unlikely to happen at this point, you'd probably be better off deciding who you want to lynch between me/you/JAT/Moosy. Only 30 minutes left to vote after all. This post and a following one is so weird, it almost feels like coaching/reminding to do something. I don't know can you explain the few posts in your filter here when your talking to wile ceph and you don't really bring uo the questions you were asking him earlier? I don't really see any follow up on them
If I'm not mistaken, by this point I didn't have much confidence in Wile lynch happening at all (30 minutes left, I had been around for a while but people didn't vote for him at all even for a moment), so I just pointed out how an Onegu lynch is useless at that point and telling what he should be doing. (After all, he could have been a townie even if I was suspicious of him at that point). If I want to give tips to a scumbuddy, I do that in the QT. I don't really see any coaching or purely scum-oriented reminding in what you just quoted. I told him the options of the day's lynch, that I'm sure the whole thread would've agreed with, and pointed out there's a deadline in which you have to vote. I can also honestly admit that after being around for a while, trying to push my opinions but nothing happening, I was starting to get more concerned about my own ass than ensuring a scum lynch. (Marv wasn't going to happen, and Wile didn't get traction), so at that point I doubt me questioning him further about it would've done much. In hindsight it might've been worth a try and something I should've pushed harder, but I'm confident I still would not have been able to make a change in the D1 lynch.
As for calling my reaction "fake", do you have any idea how disheartening it felt after giving my all and more to try and get you lynched, everyone including you agreeing that the case is solid, then still not fucking joining me in my quest to get you lynched? Like people agreed and couldn't refute the logic behind the case, but they go "we're just gonna lynch geript because fuck geript". I was so emotionally invested at the end of the day, by the contrast of how hard I pushed for you last cycle compared to the rest of my game it should be more than obvious I gave it my all to try and get you lynched last cycle. And people agreed with my reasoning. They couldn't refute it. But they didn't follow and mislynched. It's super disheartening to see that happen. I'm still disappointed in how that turned out.
Also an additional point about Palmar which makes me feel bad about him even more, look at how much he's just repeating "i'll just check the filters later". He's said that for so fucking many times in this game now. I remember my first newbie game which I was scum in, and after some shenanigans I had a basically "confirmed town" status. I just rode with it, delaying all the analysis I was supposed to make on my scumbuddy (because everyone is a viable option in lylo), because I was confident they would not call me out for it early enough and we'd end the game before they would be able to do anything about it. And thus it happened, even with me delaying and delaying (I did eventually deliver), it was long enough to keep the atmosphere questionable / waiting for my insight / not progressing the thread or solving the situation any further. And that's exactly what Palmar is doing right now. And has been doing for a fair while now. I still think he didn't give much of a fuck about yesterday at all, and seeing him continue that style today is just really edging me.
Guts say Palmar, logic says Damdred. I'm not confident enough to make a decision, but you can be damn sure I could lynch either of you by the end of this daycycle.
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EBWOP: I'm going to vote for Palmar for now, but you're not off the list of options at all Dam. Be sure to keep that in mind, and do keep contributing like you have done today so far if you're truly town and want to help us win this game.
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Going out for the red moon thing, back in 1,5 hours or so prolly.
Short ver since I happened to see your post just before leaving:
Want to show him I'm not afraid of voting for him and considering him a candidate for today's lynch seriously, because I'm sure that you already know more than well enough that I'm ready vote for you as is without additional reasoning.
Also because I want to see his reaction considering 2 votes can cause someone to get lynched at this point, I'm extremely curious if he'll vote or if he'll hold his vote. I have my own guess about what's going to happen regarding that.
Also palmar is basically not confirmed town to me currently, I thought my post made that fairly clear. If I was to take nothing but his posts into account purely, I'd arrive to the conclusions that there aren't any "huge flaws" in his play, but as I said, is lack of heavier commitment and experience makes it very possible for him to hold it up for a long game like that without making a bigger slip. (And again, as I already mentioned, being wrong on so many accords where other players have been pinning down scum much better, yet instantly being ready to go for me at the start of the day cycle while being wishy about me last night, could even say avoiding me to some extent...)
Once I'm back I can post for a little while, after that I will be not available until a bit before deadline (As explained before, will be traveling and spending the day with grandparents)
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Back, "around" for an hour or so. Only caught a glimpse during the start of the best phase, after that clouds decided to ruin it all so I ended up going for a nightwalk with no moon. Oh well.
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No, I have not. I do not have the time to go through multiple past games of theirs which would give enough insight for a possible meta read to some extent, and I believe that any experienced player is capable of playing differently / intentionally manipulating their "meta" if they so wish, to their advantage, thus making it absolutely pointless.
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As I've already explained before, there have been many instances where I haven't seen it necessary to participate more actively. (For example as I already told, in my opinion there was no point for me to talk about irrelevant stuff when we had scum up for lynch. We deal with that, then move on. I don't mind if some people want to talk about some things as long as they're not trying to derail, but I've learned to prefer getting one thing done at once.)
Other than that, I can't naturally be around the time with varying things in life. I also prefer to concentrate on the game when I have proper time to dive deeper into it and concentrate, rather than joining in for multiple short moments and reading 5 posts every now and then and saying how my mind has changed in 15 minutes and 5 points. If you have the time and the activity required for that, then do so by all means (although I still dislike when people post too often because in those cases there's always so many posts that are absolutely irrelevant.)
I mean if you check the timestamps, you can see I took around 4-5 hours if I recall correctly, just to properly delve into all filters of the remaining relevant players on D3. I recall checking just for fun, and I ended up at a value of approximately 20 seconds spent per post, if not a bit more. I like to actually think about the game, rather than just skim by and take each post as they come. The picture as a whole and the connections between posts and players are usually more interesting and telling.
But that's just how I enjoy my mafia. Sometimes I'm more active, sometimes I'm less active, but I always aim to adjust the level of effort required depending on what needs to be done with the time I have available.
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@Dam:
Can you try to clarify to me how your point #3 is in your favour?
I really don't see how possibly not bussing makes you any more town than bussing. Why would anyone go for a cred bus if they don't need it?
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Well I'd have to take your or someone elses word for it, and considering I don't give a shit about meta in general I will disagree about that being a point in your favour at all. I also think it's a very weak point to bring up, as it's one of the things in your play that is the easiest to abuse when you know your own meta.
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Well it's pointless to argue this any further so we'll just have to agree to disagree. Emotional play is also easily fakeable, but the general style of your play is even more easily fakeable. I recall that even when I played my first few games of mafia I already disliked all the people who put an over-importance on meta, and basically ignored the inner context of the game and spent all their time comparing someone's play to their other games. Sometimes that might work out, but usually not so much. So what I was about to say, since my first few games I've intentionally played with several styles and levels of activity, just to try and make people understand you can't apply meta to everything, or at least not everyone.
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EBWOP: On a more relevant note, how are you two feeling about Palmar? I know I want to hear more from him and it would be unfair to bash on him for not being available right now, but the point I raised up earlier is still valid.
He seemed to like delaying reading filters of all of yesterday, and today as well, not to mention while based on his posts he doesn't seem to have the best overall grasp of my / damdred's filter, at the start of the day he sure seemed confident about what he wanted to do..?
Like I have no doubt that he'll show up and post something proper eventually, because he knows more than well enough he will get lynched for it if he doesn't. It's kinda annoying that I probably won't be seeing what he has to say until just before deadline but I guess it can't be helped.
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EPT
