EPTNewbie Student Mafia XIV: Firefly - Page 5
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
what is mafia motivation for cake to make a sick bus on gb for cred? that was theory 2 and I evaluated the areas where she could be bussing, but the points (mafia motivation) don't add up. I typed out a long post. hold on. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On September 09 2015 05:32 MoosyDoosy wrote: The funny thing is that I looked at a game where rayn + CopCake were mafia. And guess what! She made shitty scum cases on rayn from D1 and throughout the whole game which the other townies cleared up, making them both look townie off of it. ...Sound like GB + CopCake? Nah, I'm probably wrong right? Continuing to read. - what is the game in question? link please? it wasn't tropical storm I don't think... so you are saying cake has a history of bussing d1? let me post what I have - we can discuss - if there are enough parallels, then you have a case. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On September 09 2015 03:31 Fidei86 wrote: I liked Superbia's effort in his list post earlier, but I totally disagree with his Slam read. I basically think I need to get to grips with Cake, because I think figuring out her alignment will make this a bunch easier. I'm out this evening but I'll be back on tonight. at current count, I am counting 4-5 people saying cake isn't mafia based on the whole voice mafia thing. despite rayn asking why I wasn't listening to him on cake being town I explained I wasn't trusting one read (and I was town reading rayn/null on yamato until after eod but still didn't matter). with more people saying this, well not all of you can be mafia, so going to rely on ockham's razor for this one. given rayn's long posts of reactions - I can see why he'd delay wanting to claim like that and what he did with gb. also I don't see why the mafia would risk 9% chance of hitting the medic save (1/11 chance) and the optimum play for mafia is to kill the doctor (or jailer, neither can ever save themselves) which is a guaranteed kill. rayns reasons make sense. agreed that gb is the lynch today. that doesn't change for me. ------------------ that all said, running on the assumption that gb is and will flip mafia and given my suspicions of cake given her overall gameplay in this game, I decided to check into how early she was going off on gb. ------------------ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/493411-newbie-student-mafia-xiv-firefly?page=12#229 post 229 - first questioning of gb - how is rayn mafia - 2h into the game nothing from her on gb at all until: post 698 is list post/mafia lean on gb about 23h into the day. so that's pretty early to try and bus I feel. - even if she's right on scumreading gb correctly, the reasons are a bit shaky as stated before but the timing is pretty damn early for the bus or even since it was "mafia lean" it is still pretty early to draw attention like that to a partner when n00bking and md were higher on the radar next 20-24h elapse - no real pushing on gb although she keeps continually listing him as a scumread under n00bking/md closer to eod - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/493411-newbie-student-mafia-xiv-firefly?page=59#1178 post 1178 - I actually cannot see a mafia motivation for a partner initially voting gb prior to the claim when she states preference for two other people (one of we know now is a mislynch, mafia would push the mislynch) - the only thing I can think of again is a sick bus situation where that was communicated in mafia qt, but again, this goes against the more likely logic of her (1) not drawing attention to cake (2) voting a partner over a mislynch this post is actually townie if you think about it http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/493411-newbie-student-mafia-xiv-firefly?page=64#1270 post 1270 - gb claiming with scant time left gives town no time to think, not sure why she'd call a partner on it ---------------------- tldr - assuming gb flips mafia, copcake might actually be town. - too early drawing negative attention to gb (23h into the 48h cycle) - voting gb pre-claim when a mislynch was more easily available - calling out gb not claiming earlier 3m prior to eod ---------------------- caveat - now of course again, this is assuming gb flips mafia. if gb flips blue/green, then as superbia said, real problem on our hands, and to me, copcake is in even more trouble given the manner she pushed gb (nevermind n00bking although that read actually made sense when the others didn't) and this also fits in line with superbia saying that rayn doesn't get a pass and scum is likely in someone that hard aligned with him - she being a major candidate. but not thinking caveat world yet unless gb flips town | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
where is the game in question? looked at the database - there is no listing under copcake unless I'm being an idiot again | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On September 09 2015 05:41 MoosyDoosy wrote: It's not even a "sick bus". Look through her filter. Literally all her posts throughout this game have been weak cases designed to scum read everyone. The only person she's basically been buddying with is rayn as he's the town leader. At this point it's not even a "sick bus." She's just scum reading everyone, posts little, tries to rile up others, and comes off looking townie because people think she's trying to do work in the thread and there's no way to associate with others because she's already scum read them (besides rayn). you misunderstood. I don't mean copcake bussing rayn. I mean copcake bussing gb. I know where you are getting the sentiment of copcake buddying to rayn but that's not what I'm discussing. I agree her list post is overall terrible. I agree her overall gameplay has been terrible. however I'm not debating this. that wasnt' up for debate. that's why I looked at her even closer because we're in the world where gb flips red because it's generally NOT likely scum bus d1. but I am asking you to consider the mitigating factors that don't make sense from a mafia perspective. namely what I bolded in my wall of text. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
I know, can't find that in the database. she isn't even in the database. I asked because I wanted to compare/contrast when/how copcake bussed in a game she was said to have bussed. I've pointed out the key issues in this game, now to see if that matches up. md, we need the game in question please. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On September 09 2015 05:46 MoosyDoosy wrote: the database has been outdated for a long time l0l. i only have one of my games listed there. ugh. you're making me go back and look for her past scum games. MD this is simply not true. On September 08 2015 11:41 kitaman27 wrote: Filter links have been updates as of 9/7/15. Filter links were updated yesterday. I followed personality mafia. kitaman aliased as judgejudy - most recent game finished. so how is it that personality mafia is in the database and this game you cite is not? updated but yesterday. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
if there is no parallel game where copcake has a history of bussing early I have to assume she bussed too early for a normal mafia play. that is unlikely. the only other way she'd be more likely mafia is poe. like the remaining players bleed town or something. so this said, can you explain looking at my filter dive, the motivation for copcake drawing attention to a scum partner (1) prematurely in the cycle (2) calling him out for claiming too late and not giving time to think (3) voting a partner over a mislynch that nearly everyone was on board with this is what doesn't add up | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
as scott said, her filter is pretty bad, but those points don't make sense for mafia partners if we're in lylo and copcake is still alive it's another story, but ockhams razor she shouldn't be a top lynch not now, not with (presumably mafia) gb unflipped atm | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
gah md, her top scumreads were you/nk/gb I faulted her for her reads on you/slam/gb, the n00bking read was reasonable and so didn't cite it it's possible she's mafia for pushing n00bking, would easily be able to take advantage of that but again at face value it's reasonable, I and plenty others saw fault with nk's gameplay to scumread or vote him but yet again, this conflicts with her interactions with gb, again assuming gb flips scum so therefore it's not reasonable to top read her now, not in your current world and not unless you think gb is flipping town | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On September 09 2015 06:12 Alakaslam wrote: I have already spoken my peace and assent on this until d3 he queried you in his big list post. you might want to respond to him. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On September 09 2015 06:22 CopCake wrote: Ok, right now I am so fucking creeped with MD in your world you have md and gb as scum. who is the final one? | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
it's just you've been (hyper)focused on those three, one is proven wrong I'm not familiar with your voice style - I'm uk and I don't know how early/late you people play | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On September 09 2015 06:27 CopCake wrote: Might be breshke, someone in the shadows who doesn't want to have too much attention. On September 09 2015 06:28 CopCake wrote: Eh I am a tone reader and I am pretty good with night actions / creating possible scenarios of what would have happened. alright, fair enough. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
I start work at 6am tomorrow, so I need to be off for now. Good night. | ||
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