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Newbie Student Mafia XIV: Firefly - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 20:29 GMT
#1007
Ugh. Rayn, I'm concerned you're too tunnelled on n00b. I don't want to have to choose between voting Cake and n00b.

I'm going to park my vote on BF for now. I think he's a much better option than either of the two leading wagons. I guess I could also move onto scott - I don't have much of a read on him and his level of contribution has been pretty weak.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 20:30 GMT
#1010
##Vote: boxerfred
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 20:58 GMT
#1063
Okay so I'm going to read GB's filter again.

But I'm actually starting to think that one of the mafia might be Superbia. A quick flick through his four page filter gave me very little sense of where he actually stands, despite the fact that he keeps pushing everyone else for their views. He also seems to be on n00b, but he isn't chiming in with a read thereon. Wondering if anyone else has any thoughts on this? I haven't seen many Superbia reads.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 21:07 GMT
#1083
Reading GB's read list was a real rollercoaster. He seems to have been on just about everyone, at some point or other. I think it would take me the rest of the EOD hour just to list them all out. I would probably vote for him over n00b or Cake (although I think his wroth if we ML him will be worse than ritoky's was in Personality Mafia).
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 21:11 GMT
#1090
Does scott have a reason for being on GB other than OMGUS?
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 21:23 GMT
#1105
n00b you've been hard town-reading GB all day. So what do you think about the wagon on him?
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 21:30 GMT
#1117
Right, okay. So, I have pretty serious reservations about this lynch, but I think it's probably a better lynch than n00b or Cake, and those seem to be my other options.

##Vote: GlowingBear

I'll be here towards EOD.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 22:18 GMT
#1222
Ugh. Claim has any likelihood of being true? I think we should switch off.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 22:22 GMT
#1238
Meh, my reads are all wrong, but lynching into the doctor claim seems dumb. Switched to MD.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 22:27 GMT
#1266
yeah, you guys were right, no way I build a wagon on MD now. So I have to move to NK. Ugh.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 22:48 GMT
#1303
On September 07 2015 07:44 Superbia wrote:
Also Fidei86's switch to some random wagon was pretty scummy.

What, because I didn't want to be on the n00b wagon? Meh. I'm not sure that GB's claim left town much choice, and I should have gone straight to n00b, but only because I liked him less than Cake, not because I thought he was Mafia.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 22:50 GMT
#1307
On September 07 2015 07:48 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 07 2015 07:48 Fidei86 wrote:
On September 07 2015 07:44 Superbia wrote:
Also Fidei86's switch to some random wagon was pretty scummy.

What, because I didn't want to be on the n00b wagon? Meh. I'm not sure that GB's claim left town much choice, and I should have gone straight to n00b, but only because I liked him less than Cake, not because I thought he was Mafia.

?? then why did u vote on me if cop and n00b were ur top lynch targets?

They weren't my top targets, they were the only viable non-GB wagons. In theory I could have worked harder on my wagon on you, but it went down like a lead balloon in the thread.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 22:52 GMT
#1309
On September 07 2015 07:50 Superbia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 07 2015 07:48 Fidei86 wrote:
On September 07 2015 07:44 Superbia wrote:
Also Fidei86's switch to some random wagon was pretty scummy.

What, because I didn't want to be on the n00b wagon? Meh. I'm not sure that GB's claim left town much choice, and I should have gone straight to n00b, but only because I liked him less than Cake, not because I thought he was Mafia.


Nah, because you should be switching to save the doctor. At 10m before EoD you chose to believe the claim and switched. Which means you wanted to save the doctor. But you go on some wagon no one is on. Makes me feel like "hey guys at least I switched lol". IDK.

All I can say is that I'd been town-reading Cake and NK all day, basically, and I really didn't want to vote for either. You're right, I had to, but I was stubborn at first. Not much more I can say about it really.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 06 2015 23:10 GMT
#1322
Don't worry Bresh, you didn't miss much.
Kappa.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 07 2015 08:27 GMT
#1353
@Breshke I've already explained this - I was town reading n00b and Cake all day, and I didn't want to vote for either. I moved to n00b because I needed to choose one of the wagons other than GB. I was just being stubborn in not moving to n00b straight away. *shrug* idk what my Mafia motivation would be to not move to n00b (town) straight away, but then I guess I would say that.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 07 2015 10:21 GMT
#1356
On September 06 2015 18:53 Fidei86 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2015 10:52 GlowingBear wrote:
On September 06 2015 10:33 MoosyDoosy wrote:
GlowingBear, do you really think n00bKing is mafia here?


I think there is the possibility of him being Mafia. Some of his replies are really off, his tone is over the top, the dismissal of some questions and that unexplained vote on Rayn while not scum reading him are very fair indicatives.

GB I have thought about this overnight and I don't know if it makes sense for scum n00b to post in the way that he has. Like, the points he makes are *okay* and a lot of them against Rayn I actually made myself. People seem to be scumming him more for his tone, and I agree he has been very obnoxious. But isn't that more likely to come from town than Mafia? Why does Mafia come in and generally make as many enemies as possible?

I'm also acutely aware that it's a newbie town error just to lynch the most outspoken player d1.

As to GB, I read his filter and nothing really jumped out at me. I agree with Rayn that his thread entry was highly counter-productive, and I do not agree with his outlook on blue roles in general. But anyone who was in the "why are scum winning" thread won't need me to rehash the whole GB fake cop check thing. TL:DR is that town GB makes fake blue claims which do reveal information but which also get him lynched. The whole thing is NAI for now.


@BF
The post you're quoting from is basically my first substantive contribution of the game. After I made that post, I made the one I quote above, where I said that, on reflection, I thought n00b was town. That was my thought/read progression. I suppose you could say that it wasn't true that I had been town reading him *all day*, but I thought that was a fair enough reflection of my thought pattern, and was quicker than saying "well I did think he was initially scum, but then I thought he was town relatively early on and then I maintained that thought through EOD".

Regarding your criticism more generally - I think D1 was hamstrung by the fact that rayn, n00b, MD and Cake more or less set the potential wagons quite early. Town was mostly discussing n00b v Cake all day. GB came up very late as a potential wagon. Now I will admit that I didn't strongly push my scum read on you, or on MD, but regarding you it quickly became clear that (i) nobody really agreed with my read on you, and (ii) people weren't going to move off n00b/Cake anyway. In those circumstances, it would have been a waste of time to keep pushing you. Re MD, I was panicking. As I've said before, I didn't want to vote n00b or Cake, but I basically had to choose one of them in order to save GB (when you get to reading EOD you'll notice that I got berated pretty quickly after I moved to MD). I chose MD in the heat of the moment, because there has been something that has been bugging me about his posting style all day - some of his posts are non-serious (using weird spellings, using strange phraseology) but some of his posts have been serious. I also wasn't a fan of his Cake read. But I didn't have time to make a full post on it, it was just a hunch, but it felt better than voting n00b or Cake. I quickly realised I was being stubborn and switched to n00b.

I voted for him so I obviously can't avoid responsibility entirely for what happened. I should have done better at finding scum reads during D1. But if you're going to point fingers at people for not pushing their reads, you're going to have to scum read everyone except rayn, Moosy, Cake and Yamato basically, as they're the people who mostly drove discussion d1. Since that leaves eight people -- including yourself -- I'd say that it's not the best reasoning to scum read someone. Plus, you know, I'm town, so there's that.

Clearly the GB claim and the n00b flip has mixed things up quite a bit. I think we're all going to need to sit down and think very carefully about who we pressure moving forward. I'll be doing that too, once I get a breather from the pressure you and scott are putting on, and probably once I get home from work this evening.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 07 2015 10:56 GMT
#1358
Yeah. I dunno, I'm loathe to be like "yeah, I screwed up d1", but on the other hand I totally agree that my play was not optimal. I've found this game really really different to the other four I've been in, and it has thrown me. People did move to GB, but bear in mind that literally three pages into D1 rayn (who everyone is town reading) said that he wasn't going to talk to GB because GB's play was, in his eyes, so dumb. That laid the groundwork for a GB wagon in everyone's minds. That just wasn't there for you, or Moosy for that matter. I think people really need to figure out their reads on rayn, because he is pretty much leading town at the moment, and we're likely all totally screwed if he's actually mafia. NOTE: I'm not saying I have reason to scum-read Rayn, I'm saying that all town really need to double-check their reads on him, given that he's defacto thought-leading us.

For what it's worth, I really like your case on me and how you reacted to my response. It's totally understandable to retain suspicion on me (for the reason I give above, and also because it's dumb to hard-town read someone n1), but you seem to be thinking about what I said. I think you're probably a worthy town-lean at the moment, although yeah ... we'll need help to get this train back on the tracks tomorrow, so try and get caught up asap.

Sorry you're still sick. If it makes you feel any better, I'm still at work.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 07 2015 12:40 GMT
#1359
In a world where GB's claim is fake:

A) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon
B) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 2 Mafia Goons
C) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Jailkeeper, 1 Town Unaware Miller, 7 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Framer, 1 Mafia Goon


Given the above roles, I definitely do not think that it makes sense that the vig, veteran or jailkeeper CC. The vig will be able to claim as soon as the vig takes his shot, which I understand they tend to quite early in games anyway (is that right? HTS always advocated shooting lurkers, but we haven't had any absolutely trash-tier lurkers this game, really, except BF who has picked it up overnight). No need to rush. There's only a 1/3 chance that if GB is mafia he's the RBer anyway, and even then, the RBer has to double-stack with the KP anyway, and all he'd be blocking would be the veteran, so it's hardly a priority to kill him. The veteran doesn't need to claim because the vig *will* claim at some point, following his shot.

I don't think the jailkeeper should claim because his role is too valuable to trade for just one mafia's life AT THIS STAGE. As I said above, the flips mean that if you're the JK and you die, the information you have viz GB comes out anyway. I'd rather have you doing work in the background.

The only CC that might be valuable is if we have an actual doctor. My reasoning here is that GB has 2/3 chance (assuming his was a panic and not pre-planned claim) of being either the GF or the roleblocker. Both have a big chance of screwing over the cop checks - the cop being the other blue role. The only downside is that the doc probably gets NKd N2, unless of course GB flips RBer, in which case he can save himself anyway.

IDK, I wanted to riddle the above out, but I'd like to hear what others thing. Getting another mafia now would be huge, and given the mafia power roles, it might just be worth trading the doctor for. That said, I've never really been through a claim-counterclaim scenario, so others will no doubt have more thoughts than I do.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 07 2015 12:41 GMT
#1360
(Yes, I recognise the above isn't me doing the things I said we needed to - IE re-evaluating rayn and generally scum hunting. These were just thoughts I had over lunch and could post without significant time investment.)
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 07 2015 12:45 GMT
#1361
Also, for the avoidance of doubt, people should definitely NOT CLAIM before d2, whatever happens, and regardless of my argument above. Just in case anyone was super convinced by my reasoning.
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