EPTOn July 28 2015 13:51 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
Gb, remind me if I missed it: why is Scott an objectively bad lynch?
Gb, remind me if I missed it: why is Scott an objectively bad lynch?
Firm Tofu ninja voted him yesterday
Mini Mafia Down Under 3 - Page 8
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GlowingBear
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Firm Tofu ninja voted him yesterday | ||
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1) Soft defending Firm Tofu without actually having any strong scum reads he advocated for 2) Having a town read on Kelsier early game, agrees to lynch him based on a case he didn't properly analyse that contained points I've pointed out earlier that he dismissed just to call Kelsier town. 3) Wanting to lynch Clarity for he was the best lynch candidate. Completely forgetting him today just to go against Clarity's main pusher rsoultin. 4) Basing his read on rsoultin out of bad reaction testing that resulted in WIFOM conclusion. Also, basing his read on rsoultin out of Rayn's scumread on her. It's opportunistic because (i)Rayn also scum read Palmar and he doesn't take it in consideration. He does not consider that Rayn was wrong on him (if he was town) and could be wrong on rsoultin, also. And (ii) it's a very easy reason to get behind a lynch, to hide himself behind a dead confirmed townie's read. Too comfortable for mafia 5) Palmar has no fucking original scumread. All he does is rehashing what other people say | ||
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On July 28 2015 13:57 ObiWanShinobi wrote: The bolded is the key issue I had with his reasoning. I don't understand how it outweighs a clarity vote. It outweights because we are talking about a player we have a lot of information that makes him scum (Palmar) VERSUS a player we are scumreading for lack of information (Clarity). It also outweights because if you believe Palmar is Mafia, he was ready to lynch Clarity over Tofu and he clearly was soft defending Tofu, which makes Clarity mafia. | ||
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On July 28 2015 14:04 GlowingBear wrote: It outweights because we are talking about a player we have a lot of information that makes him scum (Palmar) VERSUS a player we are scumreading for lack of information (Clarity). It also outweights because if you believe Palmar is Mafia, he was ready to lynch Clarity over Tofu and he clearly was soft defending Tofu, which makes Clarity town. EBWOP | ||
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GlowingBear
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On July 28 2015 23:00 Palmar wrote: At the time I was kinda suspicious of scott, but yeah I didn't really have a strong alternative. I have an inherent bias (as very clearly evidenced here) to assume that mafia people generally try not to pick a fight with me on day 1. When presented with FT's attacks on me I had two options: 1) He's mafia, thinks he can get away with calling me scum for bs reasons. 2) He's just a dumbass townie I simply overthought the problem. I was certain no one would be dumb enough to actually go after me like that on day 1, so I kinda wifom'd myself into thinking he had to be town because it'd be too risky to do exactly what I did. I probably need to drop this line of thought from my play in the future and assume mafia are just as likely to go after me as any other player, especially now that I play more casually than I did in the past. Here's a quote from myself showing a similar line of thought: Thankfully rayn was here, completely disconnected from the situation (FT wasn't attacking him) and thus had a more objective viewpoint and lead town to a good lynch. I never voted for him or pushed for his lynch. He was clearly a secondary candidate to Clarity. If you go back and check my filter I mention probably several times that there exist valid tone reasons to doubt KelsierSC being town. I never had a strong town read on him, I simply had a "would not lynch" read. These aren't really the same thing, especially on day 1. He was attempting to contribute and getting into arguments, even if the main point of your case, and my worries back on day 1, the fact he was so annoyed, were still troubling. Your case kinda summarized all the reasons to think he's mafia and thinking you were town at the time I kind of just rolled with it. Also, part of early thinking he was town was if I recall based on interactions with scott, who gradually started to look more town throughout the day. On July 28 2015 14:03 GlowingBear wrote: 3) Wanting to lynch Clarity for he was the best lynch candidate. Completely forgetting him today just to go against Clarity's main pusher rsoultin. I haven't forgotten about clarity. I just think he's being genuine here: On July 27 2015 22:57 Clarity_nl wrote: Welp irl is shit and everything is shit. If there's a vigi they should shoot me as it doesn't look like I'll get the chance to play properly. I gtg I don't think he's the kind of player that pulls this as an excuse to lurk as mafia. I might be wrong and we shouldn't discount the possibility, but I don't really want to lynch him today. This is more of a meta/personality assumption and I would absolutely not be opposed to him being checked/shot because he's not contributing anything to the thread. Maybe I'm overthinking things again? Who knows? On July 28 2015 14:03 GlowingBear wrote: 4) Basing his read on rsoultin out of bad reaction testing that resulted in WIFOM conclusion. Also, basing his read on rsoultin out of Rayn's scumread on her. It's opportunistic because (i)Rayn also scum read Palmar and he doesn't take it in consideration. He does not consider that Rayn was wrong on him (if he was town) and could be wrong on rsoultin, also. And (ii) it's a very easy reason to get behind a lynch, to hide himself behind a dead confirmed townie's read. Too comfortable for mafia rayn is a good player who is, just like everyone else, sometimes wrong and sometimes right. He was right on FT He's wrong on me He might be right on rsoultin? Why would I take into any consideration the fact he was wrong on me? That has literally nothing to do with whether or not he's right on rsoultin. And I'm not really hiding behind it, I'm just pointing out he wanted to kill her. It's not the main reason I want to lynch her. I want to lynch her because I do not believe a townie would act the way she did. On July 28 2015 14:03 GlowingBear wrote: 5) Palmar has no fucking original scumread. All he does is rehashing what other people say That's the best way to play mafia. Take the credit for other people's ideas. Palmar: On July 26 2015 03:27 Palmar wrote: No, he's probably not. Sure I could be wrong, but Kelsier is not going to be lynched today. re:point1) This is a complementary argument. YES, you could have done this as town. It's a matter of believing if you did it or not. I mean, I think there is a difference between town and mafia defense. You simply said he might be or not be mafia but did not have any other strong read. I also said something in that way, but my answer was "we have better lynches", and I two pretty strong scumreads at that moment and pushed them. It's completely different. Considering all those other points can be brought from you, I tend to interpret that this is coming more from mafia than from town. Sorry, I UNDERSTAND you, but I don't TRUST you. re:point2) You only commented on Kelsier when I inquired you about him on early game. You only comment on him again to say my case is good and BOOM he is up to be lynched. It's all in your filter. How can he be a clearly second candidate when you basically said he wasn't going to be lynched that day? You just thought he would be AFTER I brought the case, Palmar, and the case had basically no new points that you didn't attack before. It can be seen in your filter two stances: the one you had before my case and the one you had after my case. You had no original scumreads yesterday. You led noone yesterday. You were just letting it happen. re:point3) So, clarity was the best lynch yesterday. Then he isn't anymore because he made a post at night saying he should be vigi. Palmar, man, you know that NO TOWNIE will say that at night. This is actually coming more from a mafia that is trying to say "lol look people, I'm not trying to survive, it's a waste" than an actual townie. I would expect a townie saying "guys don't shoot me, I'm town, I'm just too overwhelmed by real life, I've already asked for a replacement". In fact, your awareness that HTS is searching for a replacement is fairly suspicious. Yes, I know, anyone could reach this conclusion by looking at the player replacement, but it reeks TMI. In Himalaya's, Holyflare did the same thing, telling us bugs was going to get replaced. In other words, Clarity's quote at night, if not scummy, is not alignment indicative. You can't draw the fast conclusion that he is town just because of that, Palmar. re:point4) That's the problem. You say that rayn had a scumread on rsoultin to "fortify" your argument. If you think his ARGUMENT is valid, then it's okay. But you don't even bring his argument against her. You just keep repeating that rayn had a scum read on her. You either say that rayn has a good argument on her and follow it, or you say rayn is a good town player and you follow him. In the first perspective, I think it's okay that you follow him and do not consider his read on you. In the second, however, you're considering rayn's ability to read people, and not the read per se. So, if he has a bad read on you, he could have a bad read on her. You can't say you trust TOWN RAYN instead of TOWN RAYN'S ARGUMENT and not consider he was wrong on you. re:point5) you still have no original or strong scumread. Your strongest scumread today is rsoultin, based on WIFOM, only. Bah. | ||
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GlowingBear
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On July 29 2015 01:38 boxerfred wrote: Palmar's currently putting a lot of effort in. But those posts really seem like "you know, on the one hand, can be this way, on the other hand, can be that way." That feels really wishy washy, opposing the "you're scum as fuck" push on rsoultin. I re-read rsoultin's stuff on Clarity and it feels reasonable and townie to me. Palmar on the other hand makes a meh defense of clarity, mainly "look he got irl stuff so I believe it so don't lynch". After the lurker experience of Gaiden I'm actually fond of the idea of policy lynching afk's, namely Clarity and Onegu (although I still think the claim is genuine). This is the post Palmar scumread rsoul for after his fake cop claim. Tbh, I had the same thought, so go ahead and read me scum if you want to. My second thought was "Hm, unlikely given that there's a framer in already" but hey, who knows. I think this post is NAI. I can see the possibility of town palmar vs. town rsoultin here. Thought of that already when I said that they are probably not the same alignment, however I think that was a false prerequisite. I have no indicators that they have opposite alignments. So what I would suggest is that we lynch into Clarity instead of choosing between those wagons. The fact that both wagons started rolling rather quickly seems to me as if scum would be fine with lynching any of those two. Also I want to point out that my scum read on GB still stands. I think he soft defended so often, directly and indirectly, that he's still my top scum read. So if anyone wants to get aboard a GB wagon, just let me know. ##unvote ##vote Clarity_nl I'm starting to not believe you're town. You agree that palmar looks scummy, you agree that clarity is a good lynch, and you still scumread me? You think I'm double bussing? You've made a huge case on me but never fully went against me. Why? | ||
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On July 29 2015 02:08 boxerfred wrote: Dude, my vote was on you until I switched to clarity. I said in the post you quoted that you're still my top scum read. However I can't get a wagon going on you, so I switch. Yeah, but you're voting your top scumread's top scumreads. Do you think I'm mafia with Palmar and Clarity? Do you think Palmar is mafia? What do you think of the points I've brought on him? | ||
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On July 29 2015 03:09 KelsierSC wrote: I think I gave 3 good reasons why palmar is likely town this game Plus the fake red check and follow up to it with rsol felt town. I feel pretty strongly he is town @GB I noticed the first few points you raised but you have ignored other points that make palmar town. Plus point 4 palmar comes up with reasons to scum read rsol and then you say he has no original reasons to scum read people? That point 5 seems really stupid to me. I do not ignore points that makes Palmar town. I just think they aren't enough to dismiss the strong scum read I'm having. The reason Palmar used to scumread rsoultin is very WIFOMy, man. I can easily see town thinking I'm the miller OR the claim is fake. You played Himalayas with me and you saw what my red check on holyflare caused. Other than this reaction bullshit, you can see that he is rehashing people's arguments. He even admitted it in his defense post, Kelsier. You can add to that that he is totally focused on rsoultin, forgetting about both you and clarity. He says he didn't forget, that he reevaluated. He reevaluated both of you? How? You didn't answer his reaction test thing. | ||
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On July 29 2015 03:22 KelsierSC wrote: ok if you think scott is town can you explain palmar's actions EOD ? I think he said he was undecided on me actually but w/e Any kind of explanation would be WIFOM. I can't understand what goes on mafia's mind and what they would do to distance himself from his partners or to draw wrong connections. I do have a theory, but I think it's not relevant to town's interest. I'm evaluating Palmar's play, and solely it, and it doesn't make sense. Also, the only reason I'm reading scott as town is for the ninja vote from Firm Tofu to Scott. It is not a strong read due to what I've just wrote about not being able to know what is behind mafia's mind. Scott CAN be mafia. His play is very lackluster. I am pushing Palmar and not pushing Scott because I think my points on Palmar are very strong and dismisses his town points, where what I've brought on Scott is well balanced with the fact that Firm Tofu indeed voted Scott. Maybe Firm Tofu was okay to sacrifice Scott, I don't know. It's a possibility. Palmar could have been hard defending scum partner scott so people would vote clarity. Hmm... | ||
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Like, do you REALLY trust this? | ||
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On July 29 2015 03:33 KelsierSC wrote: hey it was your case on me that got him thinking that way =) hmm let me think some more I think that's the most problematic part lol. | ||
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I'VE DECIDED! WE ARE NOT LYNCHING CLARITY AND WE ARE LYNCHING PALMAR. Seriously, I just realised that no matter who is scum, clarity is a scum driven wagon | ||
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On July 29 2015 06:36 rsoultin wrote: 29/80 ??? based on what did you come to this conclusion, gb? i'm like one of the only people trying to push him -_- Trust my bear senses. His wagon was formed way too quickly | ||
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I would be okay with lynching hopeless today. | ||
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On July 29 2015 08:49 Palmar wrote: I have no intention of lynching clarity as clearly stated in my post about the two people not playing. I've been clear on that for a while since he told us he couldn't play. I didn't mean to imply you wanted to lynch him. I meant that you're advocating to lunch him | ||
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On July 29 2015 09:12 GlowingBear wrote: I didn't mean to imply you wanted to lynch him. I meant simply meant that I don't want lynch him. | ||
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On July 29 2015 13:30 rsoultin wrote: 35/80 lol >< there was once a coach. and this coach he says to me, rsoul, i've got something i like to call the gb read. and i said, hey, coach eden, what's the gb read? and he says to me, well rsoul my awesome pupil, the gb read is this thing where town bounces all over the place with his votes in response to new info. and to this day this is part of how i read the bear (and several other players, in truth)...it has yet to fail me your case is not really a case, snickers you weren't there to ask. clarity wasn't there to ask. i was already saying i didn't want to lynch scott lol, gb, you've been glowingbeared >< And I did what everyone does: never read the case lol | ||
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