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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On July 28 2015 09:59 rsoultin wrote: 6/80 so when i flip town, what then, palmar? you're saying i can't critically think about a claim as town? i have to be mafia? i really thought my reason for townreading gb was pretty damn solid and still do Die evil mafia | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On July 28 2015 10:00 GlowingBear wrote: Exactly, he knows you're fake claiming or you checked a Miller. He guarantees a mislynch + when I flip town he goes against you if you're mafia. Way better than trying to think about the claim It's the timeframe that matters. He didn't reach that conclusion in 60 secs. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On July 28 2015 10:01 GlowingBear wrote: EBWOP: if you're town* He guarantees TWO mislynches if he supports your claim. Uh no. Only if hr knows you're not miller | ||
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Palmar
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Palmar
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On July 28 2015 10:02 GlowingBear wrote: The fact that you're relying on rayn's read on her is very suspicious, I must say. Do you know why Rayn called rsoultin Mafia in the first place? No I have no idea and I don't particularly care | ||
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Palmar
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Palmar
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On July 28 2015 14:03 GlowingBear wrote: Points on Palmar are basically this: 1) Soft defending Firm Tofu without actually having any strong scum reads he advocated for At the time I was kinda suspicious of scott, but yeah I didn't really have a strong alternative. I have an inherent bias (as very clearly evidenced here) to assume that mafia people generally try not to pick a fight with me on day 1. When presented with FT's attacks on me I had two options: 1) He's mafia, thinks he can get away with calling me scum for bs reasons. 2) He's just a dumbass townie I simply overthought the problem. I was certain no one would be dumb enough to actually go after me like that on day 1, so I kinda wifom'd myself into thinking he had to be town because it'd be too risky to do exactly what I did. I probably need to drop this line of thought from my play in the future and assume mafia are just as likely to go after me as any other player, especially now that I play more casually than I did in the past. Here's a quote from myself showing a similar line of thought: On May 04 2013 07:14 Palmar wrote: I'm not as up to date on the remaing six BC. I think WoS might be town based on effort alone, and TRN is pretty damn ballsy to go after me on n1 mason (if you assume I'm town). He couldn't have known (as scum) that I wouldn't put any effort into the following days, so it's more likely he wanted to buddy up with me as town. I'm reading Sharrant atm, but feel free to throw out thoughts as you go. Thankfully rayn was here, completely disconnected from the situation (FT wasn't attacking him) and thus had a more objective viewpoint and lead town to a good lynch. On July 28 2015 14:03 GlowingBear wrote: 2) Having a town read on Kelsier early game, agrees to lynch him based on a case he didn't properly analyse that contained points I've pointed out earlier that he dismissed just to call Kelsier town. I never voted for him or pushed for his lynch. He was clearly a secondary candidate to Clarity. If you go back and check my filter I mention probably several times that there exist valid tone reasons to doubt KelsierSC being town. I never had a strong town read on him, I simply had a "would not lynch" read. These aren't really the same thing, especially on day 1. He was attempting to contribute and getting into arguments, even if the main point of your case, and my worries back on day 1, the fact he was so annoyed, were still troubling. Your case kinda summarized all the reasons to think he's mafia and thinking you were town at the time I kind of just rolled with it. Also, part of early thinking he was town was if I recall based on interactions with scott, who gradually started to look more town throughout the day.[/QUOTE] On July 28 2015 14:03 GlowingBear wrote: 3) Wanting to lynch Clarity for he was the best lynch candidate. Completely forgetting him today just to go against Clarity's main pusher rsoultin. I haven't forgotten about clarity. I just think he's being genuine here: On July 27 2015 22:57 Clarity_nl wrote: Welp irl is shit and everything is shit. If there's a vigi they should shoot me as it doesn't look like I'll get the chance to play properly. I gtg I don't think he's the kind of player that pulls this as an excuse to lurk as mafia. I might be wrong and we shouldn't discount the possibility, but I don't really want to lynch him today. This is more of a meta/personality assumption and I would absolutely not be opposed to him being checked/shot because he's not contributing anything to the thread. Maybe I'm overthinking things again? Who knows? On July 28 2015 14:03 GlowingBear wrote: 4) Basing his read on rsoultin out of bad reaction testing that resulted in WIFOM conclusion. Also, basing his read on rsoultin out of Rayn's scumread on her. It's opportunistic because (i)Rayn also scum read Palmar and he doesn't take it in consideration. He does not consider that Rayn was wrong on him (if he was town) and could be wrong on rsoultin, also. And (ii) it's a very easy reason to get behind a lynch, to hide himself behind a dead confirmed townie's read. Too comfortable for mafia rayn is a good player who is, just like everyone else, sometimes wrong and sometimes right. He was right on FT He's wrong on me He might be right on rsoultin? Why would I take into any consideration the fact he was wrong on me? That has literally nothing to do with whether or not he's right on rsoultin. And I'm not really hiding behind it, I'm just pointing out he wanted to kill her. It's not the main reason I want to lynch her. I want to lynch her because I do not believe a townie would act the way she did. On July 28 2015 14:03 GlowingBear wrote: 5) Palmar has no fucking original scumread. All he does is rehashing what other people say That's the best way to play mafia. Take the credit for other people's ideas. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
Glowingbear gets 1 scumpoint for asking the scum a "cheap" question and not following up: On July 26 2015 02:50 FirmTofu wrote: To be honest, I'm still trying to wrap my head around all the posts discussing meta and previous games. Once I get through all that, I'll jump into the current discussion. Kelsier gets 1 townpoint for the mafia actively trying to explain something to him: On July 26 2015 03:03 FirmTofu wrote: If what Palmar is doing could be considered contribution, I wouldn't have a problem here. Like I said, he hasn't done anything of substance. What exactly has Palmar contributed? Also, why do you think Palmar is town? Do you agree with his reads? Snickers gets 1 townpoint for prompting the mafia to do something (he came back 5 minutes later and announced GB was asking enough questions for his liking). On July 26 2015 03:13 FirmTofu wrote: Give me a sec, I'll look into his filter and get back to you on that. boxer gets a scumpoint for being the mafia's secondary lynch he never talks about again: On July 26 2015 03:42 FirmTofu wrote: Just looked into boxer. He has a trash 6 post filter. I wouldn't mind lynching him either. I wonder if he listed 3 townies? 2 townies? when he said this: On July 27 2015 04:43 FirmTofu wrote: Calling this game now. Mafia team is Clarity, scott, and Kelsier. It's just so perfect. Additionally, he never mentions Onegu and rsoultin. He interacts extensively with rayn who is town and me who I know to be town. He barely talks to OWS (who is in my mind rapidly dropping into scum territory the more i read). Not really sure what to make of all this. I guess the only real point I'm taking is that it reinforces my Snickers townread (who along with scott is best townies). Boxer is more on the map than before too, so is OWS. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On July 28 2015 23:23 Snickers wrote: who do you want to lynch today palmar? idk, probably rsoultin but maybe gb or ows. But I'm not quite sure yet. I'm reading stuff and being useless atm | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On July 28 2015 23:25 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Palmar, elaborate a bit more on your rso read for me pls. ... There is nothing to elaborate on. Are you not reading thread? | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
Palmar's shitty reads based on literally nothing! Shitty read #1: Scott is town On July 28 2015 09:00 Palmar wrote: ##vote Glowingbear Because my red check said so. On July 28 2015 09:01 scott31337 wrote: Fucking Mafiabear I knew it The important part here is the timing. Remember that if scott is mafia he sees my post and immediately thinks "wait a minute, that's not right" because he knows it's not (unless he's a scumbuddy with GB but that's a stretch...). I genuinely believe that his response was an impulsive, genuine one, not a calculated "It's best for me to go along with this". I believe if he was mafia, even if he was going to agree with it, it would have taken a longer time to write the response. Something like this one actually. Notice the random smiley and the strangely spelled "Nice" (yes I know it's a common thing...). This is not a genuine reaction like scott's was. Scott was, at that moment, very happy with what just happened and he simply blurted out the first thing he thought. I'm not saying OWS is mafia just because of this, but his response in no way gives me the any indication he's town because it's constructed. It might be town constructed, but it's not impulsive and that is all that matters. Scott's chance of being mafia is like 1%. Shitty read #2: Snickers is town On July 27 2015 05:29 FirmTofu wrote: Also, I'm The Anangu (Town Vanilla), if anyone cares. On July 27 2015 05:30 Snickers wrote: so firm is probably getting modkilled great. Another example of an instant, impulsive reaction. If snickers is mafia with FT then he knows it's a fake claim and doesn't even consider the possibility that it might be a modkillable offense. The simple fact that his mind came up with the idea, within 1 minute of FT's post, that posting the role like that would lead to FT being modkilled is extremely important. This means snickers BELIEVED that FT had posted the real role PM, and I highly doubt this was a planned play by them two. This simply means that Snickers thought FT had posted the vanilla town role pm, and thus he clearly was not aware FT was mafia at this time. This means snickers can never be mafia this game. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
Clarity and Onegu Unfortunately we have two people not participating in the game. Both of those players are prime vigilante targets. But the most important part is that there is no reason to actively really believe that either of them is mafia. We have no flipped blue roles so there's no real reason to doubt that Onegu is named townie, and while I wanted to lynch clarity yesterday for not contributing, his post tonight and the fact that HTS is looking for a replacement for this game probably means he's telling the truth that he can't play. It's a bit shitty I guess to talk about it, but it's the next thread to this one... If time constraints stop him from contributing, that fully explains my main gripe with him, which was that clarity is a good player who is not trying to solve the game. Solving the game is much harder when you don't have time to solve the game. So yeah, unless someone can bring up a real reason why one of the two is mafia, we're basically taking the easy way out by lynching them. If they happen to be town it'll be an idle lynch on a lurker, and I generally don't like those after day 1. Like I'm not kidding about clarity, the reason I wanted to lynch him was I had just played with him in voice mafia where he was insightful, talkative and very committed to winning as a townie, and then there's literally nothing this game. But this is 100% explained by simply being absent this game. It sucks, and if he's mafia I'm basically giving him a lurker pass for nothing, but I don't want to lynch him today. Check/Shoot. Use the lynch on someone who might at least respond. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
rsoultin GlowingBear KelsierSC boxerfred Hopeless1der ObiWanShinobi There are likely 2 mafia in this group. Cliff notes on each one PRIOR TO FILTERS/RE-READING (so this is all subject to change). Think of this as mental notes I have about each player. rsoultin Scum: I still don't believe a townie reacts by instantly thinking miller. rayn also wanted to lynch her and rayn is sometimes right. Town: She had actually talked about the GB is town because of her "shitty read", before I claimed the check. This slightly weakens my reaction accusation and also shows she is at least trying to have reads. GlowingBear Scum: voted incorrectly yesterday, is wrong on everything today and wants to kill me. Town: voted incorrectly yesterday, is wrong on everything today and wants to kill me. See... he's going after me which might be risky if he's mafia (although this logic failed me yesterday). Also he's being blatantly wrong on everything it feels, and is being a stubborn, cocky asshole about it, which is somewhat a townie attitude. meh... I probably don't really want to lynch him. KelsierSC Feels very background-y. I don't feel like he has done much at all after early day 1. The tone thing that I and GB both pointed out yesterday still bothers me. Still there are also some reasons I think he might be town. Undecided boxerfred I've said multiple times in mafia that the players I ignore tend to be mafia. If this is true, boxerfred is always mafia. I can hardly remember anything he has posted this game, which means it's been mostly boring and/or useless. This is gonna be a really good filter for me to read OWS I've also ignored him a bit, and he's done literally nothing. I seem to recall having a weak toneread for thinking he's town early on day 1, although I can't remember what it is, and since then I feel like he has had very little strong opinions and just kind of asks idle questions and goes wherever the wind blows. Hopeless1der Almost in the lurker category. I can't even remember why I decided to back off him yesterday, but I felt like it was a good idea at the time. Until I read him that remains the position I hold. | ||
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Palmar
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Palmar
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meeehhhhhhh~~~~~~~~ | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On July 29 2015 02:42 boxerfred wrote: Oh, good catch! Missed that. Hm, I read your post on Palmar with a "oh GB's a scumread of me, don't care too much" mindset. Hm. After rereading, I think those are strong points. However, my case on you is strong, too. Okay. So for today and for me, it's clarity or Palmar lynch, nothing else. If Palmar flips town though, I'd go after GB in an instant. This is terrible (or mafia). Because I haven't re-read Boxer I'm just gonna assume terrible for now (this could change). You're basically drawing an associative read between me and GB. If you genuinely think GB is town and that his case on me is valid, me flipping town should not change any of that. In fact, by that same logic if I flip town you should want to lynch yourself based on you being just as wrong as GB, and that's retarded. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On July 29 2015 02:45 boxerfred wrote: 15/80 This is bullshit, Palmar. I did two huge posts that should be at least memorable. Maybe they should! I did not deny you having written things. I've just (for some reason) not read anything you've said. This could be because of me or you, I don't know. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On July 29 2015 06:34 GlowingBear wrote: SHUT UP RIGHT NOW!!!! I'VE DECIDED! WE ARE NOT LYNCHING CLARITY AND WE ARE LYNCHING PALMAR. Seriously, I just realised that no matter who is scum, clarity is a scum driven wagon We are not lynching clarity anyway, and preferably we don't lynch me either. Your posting today indicates you might be town, you seem to genuinely believe that I must be mafia because reasons. This is a massive problem because you're being destructive at the moment. I know this shit happens all the time. The only way people are not suspicious of me day 2 is when I both lead and nail the lynch on day 1, and even then people still want to lynch me. This is based on some weird perception that my scumgame is actually something to be feared. Like the reason I waffled on Firmtofu was the most genuine Palmar-reason ever. Only I have such a big ego that I think mafia are all afraid to take me on day 1 and would rather either pocket me or ignore me. Like that is essentially why I thought FT was more likely to be dumbass than mafia, even with all evidence pointing to him being scum. My indecisiveness is very much demonstrated in these posts: On July 27 2015 04:08 Palmar wrote: Everything you say is essentially correct and the bolded basically answers your own question. I feel there is a very real possibility he is just a baddie. Although maybe I should worry less about that and just lynch him for saying stuff that makes no sense. On July 27 2015 05:32 Palmar wrote: Mehh I don't really care. Logically I shouldn't fight FT's lynch. If he is even a remotely viable human being he is definitely mafia because his entire storyline regarding me is trash and bullshit. I'm just not sure he is a viable human being. So whatever. I think clarity has a better chance of flipping scum and my vote stays there, but I'm not gonna defend FT when the only defense to be made for him is "he barely counts as a sentient life-form". And also by the fact that I ended up shutting down an alternative wagon on scott and voting FT just to make sure he'd get lynched. But yeah, you need to reconsider your priorities GB. I kinda maybe think you're town and I don't really want to lynch you today. Don't let the fear of some super scum play blind you from simple analysis. My scumgame is not particularly complex, and I'm being super transparent this game. Like I'm actually, for once, putting work into explaining everything I do from the moment I started contributing to the game. Read my filter again without the scum-tinted glasses and see if it makes sense. You actually have a chance of making a good play here, but it's going to require you to be like... not shit. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On July 29 2015 06:54 KelsierSC wrote: Clarity would have been a fine lynch yesterday and is a good lynch today "forming quickly" is stupid Name me one reason why we should lynch clarity that cannot be explained by "he can't play the game". | ||
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