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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 13:05 raynpelikoneet wrote: How the fuck was doctor more likely than a veteran?!?!?!? Uh, because no one died? I'm pretty sure you can figure this one out on your own. If there is anyone that can't understand why a Doctor was more probable than a Veteran, after a zero-death Night Phase, something is wrong. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 13:22 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yeah i havent been right yet. Good comparison. I just singlehandedly lynched mafia. *sigh* The Barakos lynch is no longer relevant, when a Scum team is evaluating whether you are right about things YET. There's a reason why ruXxar went and dug up your night reads. If he's right that you were targeted for being "on point" then those are what matter, not the fact that you were part of the Barakos lynch. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 16:26 ruXxar wrote: Here's how: Veteran is given to a townie at random. A medic save can be directed. The list of reasonable NK targets is smaller than all the players in the game. Therefore the chance that a medic saved a potential NK target is higher than mafia randomly hitting a veteran. Correct. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 16:25 Rels wrote: Second, I was roleblocked. Oh FFS. Seriously? Someone pleeeease counterclaim this block, or something. On July 27 2015 16:25 Rels wrote: My potential night actions were: So I believe one of these two is mafia. Then you don't understand how thinking works. In what world does Mafia Flexes think you are a Vigilante, and roleblock you because he's afraid that you're going to do EXACTLY WHAT YOU SAY YOU WOULD DO IF YOU WERE THE VIGILANTE?? And in what world does Mafia n00bKing think that you are a Cop, and roleblock you because he's afraid that you're going to do EXACTLY WHAT YOU SAY YOU WOULD DO IF YOU WERE THE COP?? If the roleblock goes uncountered, then you're right on the edge of being completely confirmed Town. And yet you're STILL actively playing against the Town's win condition, by putting forth reasoning like this, and setting the stage for a mislynch on me. Rels wrote:Amazingly, this may be the only post addressed to him he didn't answer. That is super suspicious. So, noobking: please do what you were requested to. 1 sentence without fluff explaining my lie. Actually, for me to ignore your scummy request is not suspicious at all. For you to MAKE your scummy request, that is what's suspicious. As I said, you're right on the cusp of being confirmed Town. But continue to push things that have EXCLUSIVELY scum motivation. Why would a Town player EVER ask me to cut the explanation of your lie down to 1 sentence, when I have already so thoroughly explained it through the use of more sentences? You're asking me to intentionally use poor communication, instead of good communication. If that's not scummy, nothing is, because it invites my words to be misinterpreted, or worse. You want a 1 sentence explanation of how I know with absolute certainty that you lied? Looks like this: You said that he thought long and hard before making the post, instead of being free of mind and just posting what he felt, and then said that you never said his remarks required thought, and admitted that his remarks are off-the-cuff instant reactions. There you go. Your positions are incompatible with one another. And you could have admitted that you made a mistake instead of telling the lie, or you could have tried to say that it only looks like a lie because you changed your mind. But you never did. You only stood by the lie, and defended the lie. Now, IF you are Town, then start talking like someone who at least has SOME minimal amount of interest in achieving the Town's win condition. And if you CAN'T help me achieve the Town's win condition, then at the very least, GET OUT OF THE WAY. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 17:18 disformation wrote: Just arrived at work. Short thought-dump / updates. I think this is pretty much WIFOM. Can you make a case on either without relying on that? It's so much worse than WIFOM. For his theory to make sense, the Scum team has to actually be playing against their own win condition, just for the *sake* of WIFOM. And the Day 1 lynch result hardly left them any room to be playing against their own win condition, in favor of being sneaky. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 17:20 Rels wrote: Of course that doesn't make you or Flexes confirmed mafia. But the mafia team took the risk of hitting the veteran to roleblock me. Completely dismissing the possibility of them afraid of my powers, like you're doing, is ridiculous. Oh hey look, you're misrepresenting my position. I am SO surprised. Read it again. I did not eliminate the possibility of the scum team thinking you might be a Cop or Vig. I only eliminated two extremely specific scenarios. One where Flexes is Scum and thinks you're the Vig, and one where I am scum and think you're the Cop. Every other scenario where you're a Vig or Cop can still make sense. There is something else that I really want to add on this topic, which more strongly demonstrates how I'm right and you're wrong, but it should wait until after the game. On July 27 2015 17:20 Rels wrote: It is a valid request, because I explained how I didn't lie and you're still saying I'm lying. Your explanation was false. I'll just leave it at that, instead of rehashing the whole thing over again, while I wait to see if there's a counterclaim on your roleblock (though I don't expect one, because I can't understand why you would fakeclaim the block). On July 27 2015 17:20 Rels wrote: Good summary. I don't see any lie though. The explanation of how I can know it's a lie immediately followed the summary. But of course, you didn't respond to that part of my post. However, "I'll just leave it at that, instead of rehashing the whole thing over again." On July 27 2015 17:20 Rels wrote: I am trying to solve the game. That would be really neat. I can hardly wait until there's a way for me to be able to tell. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 17:23 Rels wrote: @noobking: what is you read on TT ? I already upgraded him from Town to DumbTown. If Ticktock is Scum, I'll eat my hat. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 17:26 Rels wrote: Wow this is ridiculous. That is WIFOM, not worse than WIFOM. Look at these possibility: 1 noobking is a mafia (not GF). Rels said he was going to check noobking. The mafia team has to roleblock Rels to avoid a red check. 2 Flexes is mafia. Rels said he was going to shoot Flexes. The mafia team has to roleblock Rels to avoir a mafia kill. Those are not reasonable "possibilities." If Flexes is Scum, and knows there is a Vigilante in the game, he can be very confident that he will not be shot by Rels (even on the off chance that Rels is that Vigilante, which is already unlikely for reasons that I can't explain without damaging the Town). If n00bKing is Scum, and knows there is a Cop in the game, he can be very confident that he will not be checked by Rels (even on the off chance that Rels is that Cop, which is already unlikely for reasons that I can't explain without damaging the Town). The second scenario is particularly ludicrous, because you're trying to tell me that after I spent Day 1 and Night 1 painting you as a suspect, I then up and ROLEBLOCKED you, in a game where there is a guaranteed Scum roleblocker but no possibility of a Town roleblocker. ??? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 17:34 Rels wrote: It is WIFOM to eliminate these two scenarios. No. And I already said why. On July 27 2015 17:34 Rels wrote: Then don't talk about it ... I didn't. Why are you bringing it back up, if you don't want me to talk about it? On July 27 2015 17:34 Rels wrote: My positions are not incompatible with one another, as I've already said. Which is what I mean when I say that you continue to defend the lie. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 17:37 Rels wrote: So your likely mafia team is Sulfu + Flexes or NM I think ? If there's a Vigilante in the game, you being roleblocked largely eliminates Flexes as a possible suspect. Sulfu + NM, and if one of those was wrong, I would look at maybe Breshke or Moosy. If it's a Cop setup instead, Sulf + Flexes, and if one of those was wrong, I would look at NM next. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 17:50 Rels wrote: I agree that if you are mafia, it's bad for you to roleblock me (or kill me). BUT if you know there is a cop in the setup, you have no choice but to do that. Bad situation but wifomable > red check. lol, NONSENSE. What didn't you understand about "If n00bKing is Scum, and knows there is a Cop in the game, he can be very confident that he will not be checked by Rels (even on the off chance that Rels is that Cop, which is already unlikely for reasons that I can't explain without damaging the Town)."? Seriously, your refusal to use reason and common sense is driving me crazy. Just STOP posting for a little while, THINK about what you've just said, and come back later. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 17:55 Rels wrote: Then it's weird you're townreading me then. My rb claim can be wifomed, just like the scenario where you rb me. Really? How? Neither one of those is WIFOM. They both make NO SENSE. Why would you, as Scum, claim being roleblocked here, if the real roleblock target would just counterclaim you? And if there is no other roleblock target, why didn't you just roleblock the player you attacked? The only way this makes any sense is if the roleblocker just failed to turn in an action at all, because he was afk or something, so that there was no roleblock in the first place. I would designate that as extremely unlikely. For you to fakeclaim a roleblock would be just as ridiculous as for me to roleblock you. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 17:56 Rels wrote: @noobking To be clear: you think these two things are true: - I lied - I am town Confirm ? I *think* the second one is true. I *KNOW* the first one is true. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 17:59 Rels wrote: I don't understand. You are saying: - I'm probably not the cop - On the off-chance I'm the cop, I won't check you I don't understand why you are saying that. Especially the second part. HOW CAN YOU NOT UNDERSTAND THAT?? Again, Seriously, your refusal to use reason and common sense is driving me crazy. Just STOP posting for a little while, THINK about what you've just said, and come back later. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 20:26 Rels wrote: Yeah it is WIFOM, but it is a plausible scenario. At the very least, it proves that him voting / pushing Barakos is not town indicative. It is a plausible scenario. The only issue I would have with it is that I question whether Sulfurus would really believe that this "Town Cred" (once he had earned it) would actually enable him to lead mislynches. Imagine you are Scum Sulfy in this game, and consider the performance of Scum Sulfy in his last two games. Can you talk yourself into believing that if you bus Barakos and people townread you for it, you'll actually be active enough (and convincing enough) to be a major factor in getting some mislynches later? Seems iffy at best. But whatever. Human beings are notoriously bad at self-analysis. So maybe he would think he could pull it off, even if I think it sounds hard to swallow. And it's possible that he wasn't thinking that far down the line. He might not have looked beyond "bus partner, get Town Cred" to actually think about what he needed to DO with that Town Cred once he had it. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 22:35 NocturneMage wrote: To add - I know what bussing means, but I'm trying to grasp the relationship between where someone is on a voting wagon and the likeliness of that person being scum. Depending on the nature of the lynch, there are certain places along the voting order where you are more likely and less likely to find Scum. In a mislynch on a Town player, there are particular slots in that voting order where the scum are more likely to be sitting. In a very tight vote count that results in a Scum lynch, it is less likely that there will be Scum votes on the lynched player at all. (There was just an example of this in Newbie XII, where Sulfurus was lynched as Scum in a tight vote, and it turned out that 0 of the players who voted against Sulf were Scum.) In a landslide vote that results in a Scum lynch, there are again particular slots in the voting order where a teammate who is bussing is more likely to be sitting. I learned what these slots are through experience in my own games, and when applying it to games that I only observed, the patterns hold true. (Not all the time, of course. But often enough to call them "patterns.") Ticktock has apparently learned what the slots are through his own experience as well, so that when he named 3 players that are most likely to have bussed Barakos, he named exactly the same 3 players I would have. And when I questioned him about how he selected those 3 names, he gave exactly the same reasoning I used. After thinking this through pretty carefully, I don't think that I should offer you a full explanation of exactly why those are the slots to look in. Because the Mafia may not know about these patterns and how they work (and if YOU'RE Mafia, then it is pretty obvious that the Mafia doesn't know about them) and if I overexplain the principles, I'm inviting you to WIFOM me with them later in the game. If you only know which slots but don't know WHY, you'll have a tougher time putting together reasoning that could trick me into participating in a mislynch. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 23:31 Damdred wrote: And that would possibly still be my list tt probably would be more towards the towny end of things atm, moosy more towards the bottom. We need more specific language from you, if you want to keep Sulfurus out of the Noose. Where is Flexes in that progression? If Moosy is "more towards the bottom" then is Flexes AT the bottom? Or is Moosy your best scum read, among the players who weren't on the wagon? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 28 2015 02:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: We do not lynch sulfurus. If you think whrn every single person in the game is okay with lynching him except for me and Damdred, will he flip mafia? Lynch tictock. Unless you cant see why he is mafia, especially with this retarded push on sulfurus, then at least vote for scott, who is also mafia. I expect this is evident, but you'd have a much better chance of me voting against Scott than against Ticktock. If Damdred thinks Moosy is the lynch (instead of either of your targets) then I'll let you guys have that debate. I don't really think Moosy is a good lynch today though. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
First he said this: Rels wrote: I wrote a big post saying how he was mafia for a tons of reasons, and when I reread it before posting I realize most of it was nonsense. I'm pretty happy I did not post it And then he gave us his latest scum reads, and it looks like this: Rels wrote: For now my scumteam is Sulfurus + Flexes/scott. Maybe Breshke instead of one of those two. And if I'm wrong on one those three, mayyyyyyybe MD, TT or NM, though I will really need some rock solid cases to consider voting them. There's a certain someone by the name of "n00bKing" who doesn't appear anywhere in there. But I said I would answer ruXxar, so I'll still go ahead and do it. On July 27 2015 19:56 ruXxar wrote: Why would rels not check n00nking if rels is cop. Explain like I'm 5. Okay, I'm going to try to imagine that ruXxar is 5. ruXxar is 5...let's see if...oh, done! Wow, that was surprisingly easy. Hmm, this kind of explains a lot, actually!  If Rels were the Cop, he would not check me, because during the Night Phase, he posted suggestions to the power roles, and he gave only ONE name to the Cop, and that name was MINE. Children have wondrous imaginations, so use yours, and put yourself in the shoes of a Rels who is the Cop. Imagine you're the Cop, and during the Night Phase, you suggest who the Cop should target. Imagine you give only one name. Then imagine that you...go ahead and turn in a check on that name. Did you notice how your brain stopped you and said "No, no, that's stupid"? Okay then. If it becomes necessary later, I will also be ready to provide additional reasons why people can know that: 1) I can't be Scum 2) Even if I were Scum, my team would never have roleblocked Rels 3) Even if I were Scum, I wouldn't play this way if I was the roleblocker instead of the Godfather (which is what is required, for me to be afraid that Rels is the Cop and will turn in a check on me. Otherwise, I want that check to get turned in.) | ||
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