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On July 27 2015 05:38 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2015 05:36 n00bKing wrote:On July 27 2015 04:26 MoosyDoosy wrote:
It would be great if n00bKing could look into the associative cases of these three since he’s good at that and stop being tunneled on Rels for a moment. You gonna say stuff like this to me every single game? I have to keep going back to Rels only because no one else is posting any arguments against him where I can be like "Yeah, that." It's not going to keep me from looking at everything else. It's not like I'm so focused on Rels that I can't think about or talk about anything else. I read like 9 filters during this Phase, okay? I'll have my head in the game. Uh, which part. The tunneled part which is true? Or the the associative case part which you're the best at? Either way I'll read Rels filter and yours again just to make you happy.
The part where every game, you tell me to not get so tunneled, even though I'm participating in conversations on every topic that gets raised. At worst, you could accuse me of confirmation bias. So that although I'm looking at everything, I keep bringing myself back to the same conclusions about Rels, and can't shake myself out of it. But someday I'll show you an example of a player who has true tunnel vision, and literally will not talk about anything or think about anything except their lynch target. Then you can compare that to the way I behaved this game and the last game, and see what I mean. (It's also worth nothing that when I was "tunneled" on TJ in our last game, he WAS scum.)
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On July 27 2015 05:50 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2015 05:39 n00bKing wrote:On July 27 2015 04:26 disformation wrote:
Mh. Got kinda ninjaed by MoosyDoosy, Both his town circle and his PoE list look rather agreeable and is probably something town would avoid to post like this. ? Do you mean scum would avoid posting it, instead of town? Otherwise, I can't figure out that sentence. I feel like scum would leave itself with more null or "unsure on that guy" reads in order to have some room to wiggle around later on. E.g. could I see scum cutting 1-2 ppl from your town circle and be like "eh I have a slight lean, need to reread". So they can jump onto them if someone makes a good case or something. And/Or overall more waffly reads.
So the answer is yes, you meant "scum" where you put "town?" If so, everything makes sense.
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On July 27 2015 05:50 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2015 05:47 n00bKing wrote:On July 27 2015 05:27 ruXxar wrote:On July 27 2015 05:13 n00bKing wrote:
#9: NocturneMage - Might be a bit higher, if it didn't seem like he can't be paired with either of my highest scumreads. (Hooray for association cases!) Later posts do seem better, but some of the early posts are pretty damn unhelpful. Don't know who mentioned it, but he had a tendency early to just ask people questions about what they thought about someone else's stated opinion. These questions had predictable answers, that would probably be short and not generate much interesting discussion. Asking questions is good. But asking questions like that is bad, because they take up just as much space in your filter (so it looks like you're participating and being inquisitive) but it doesn't actually go anywhere. Happily engages in a worthless discussion about his experience in RL Mafia games, while failing to actually draw conclusions about what is going on.
That would be barakos confirmed scum: On July 24 2015 09:08 Barakos wrote:
Nocturne coming in and asking lots of questions seems kinda active. But a lot of his posts/ questions are targetet at other peoples opinion about the alignment of person x/y/z, without actually giving his own thoughts...
Interesting. Well then yeah, Barakos made a really good point about why Mage is suspicious! lol : \ Was Barakos in any trouble yet, at that point? Is it possible he was pushing Mage to make Mage look better if Barakos got lynched? Or was this all too early for that? It was 1 hour after game start.
Okay. Then I guess I feel a little better about him. And if I feel a little better about Moosy too, then the Town list starts to get really big, and starts to leave a gap between the 3 names at the bottom (Flexes/Rels/Sulfurus) and everyone else. But with there only being 2 Scum left, I guess having a short suspect list is okay.
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On July 27 2015 06:39 MoosyDoosy wrote:
How many hours until night time ends?
20 minutes, I think.
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Dear Bad Guys,
I know that the Mafia attacked me on Night 1 of Newbie 11, and that they attacked me on Night 2 of Newbie 12. So maybe you are thinking of attacking me tonight, too. But don't do it!
n00bKing wrote:having so much crossover in the player lists for the Newbie games is making it feel more like a "community" I guess. In the first game, I didn't know anyone so there wasn't anything to do but get down to business. I am also in a lighter mood because my move is finished (whereas it was in-progress during the first game, and I was busy unpacking all the time during the second game) and because my birthday is this weekend. w00t!
Don't kill me on my birthday, you dicks! 
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If I die tonight...
The Mafia players are dicks. Lynch somebody who is a dick.
My death could mean that Rels is scum and wanted to silence me, but it could just as easily be a frame-up. So I don't know if that is "actionable." I would say it just means Rels becomes a better Cop check than he was already. You'll still have my filter here, so just keep the things I've said about Rels in mind, as the game goes on.
Trying to think what else it might mean if I am killed. Might bizarrely implicate Ticktock. Don't have time to really flesh that thought out, but hopefully someone could figure out what I mean. Definitely would look bad for Sulfurus. And I don't think anyone would bother trying to "frame" Sulfurus, when he's already scumread by a few people, and not being helpful even if he's Town. My death is scum-indicative for Sulfurus, I think.
That's probably about it. Good luck!
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Hang on, need to find another celebration pic now.
Aaaand here we are:
![[image loading]](http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y277/Larkka2/Temporary/RfKUn.gif:original)
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On July 27 2015 07:13 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2015 07:12 Damdred wrote:
That's not true ruxxar statistically it's about a 50/50 split for replacements What I mean is that judging him for not returning and giving us his reads list isn't as scum indicative if he went completely afk after his last post.
I'm with Damdred. It wasn't that scum indicative anyway, because Scum would not want to do something like that and appear so suspicious. Town also doesn't want to do something like that because...it appears so suspicious. It's a play that I hate regardless of allegiance, and it was PoE that had him so high in my lynch list. There was no reason to think he was Town. He was sitting on 0 Townie points. Everyone with a smaller number on the list at least had some.
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On July 27 2015 07:16 ruXxar wrote:
Which means we are running setup A or B, with cop + medic/veteran.
I think that's the most likely option. But it's not ironclad. Theoretically, Flexes could BE the Vigilante, which certainly explains how he doesn't get shot. Otherwise, you need some other Vigilante who just didn't fire, for whatever reason.
On July 27 2015 07:16 ruXxar wrote: So if cop has a red-check, he should tell us imo.
Durr. Perhaps not right away though.
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On July 27 2015 07:22 ruXxar wrote:
Also if a veteran got shot he should definitely speak up as well.
Mafia would already know who the veteran is, but we don't unless he tells us.
Makes sense. Doctor save is more likely in a vacuum, but if it was a Veteran instead, I don't see any downside to him telling us.
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On July 27 2015 07:24 disformation wrote:
In both of my first two games we lynched scott D1.
So congrats on making it to D2 scott. =D
The key to avoiding the Day 1 Noose is to not play Day 1.
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On July 27 2015 07:28 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2015 07:24 n00bKing wrote:On July 27 2015 07:22 ruXxar wrote:
Also if a veteran got shot he should definitely speak up as well.
Mafia would already know who the veteran is, but we don't unless he tells us. Makes sense. Doctor save is more likely in a vacuum, but if it was a Veteran instead, I don't see any downside to him telling us. So you're obviously not the veteran then :p
Umm...yeah.
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On July 27 2015 07:35 Damdred wrote:
Noobs response is super interesting.
Response to what?
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On July 27 2015 09:16 ruXxar wrote:
Same question for you n00bking, why make all the posts before the day post about "pls don't kill me scum"?
Did you seriously think you were getting NKed?
"all the posts" huh? It was ONE post. And I am not going to give you an answer about how likely I thought it was that I would be killed, or why I asked the Mafia to not kill me.
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On July 27 2015 09:43 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2015 09:42 MoosyDoosy wrote:On July 27 2015 09:16 ruXxar wrote:On July 27 2015 06:52 MoosyDoosy wrote:
ruXxar let's not delve into that. That just gives scum more ideas and creates too many mindgames. And n00bKing has been killed on his first night for all his games except for the one before this. This is an interesting post. Did you think that n00bking had a high likelihood of getting NKed? Same question for you n00bking, why make all the posts before the day post about "pls don't kill me scum"? Did you seriously think you were getting NKed? Let me explain this for you plainly. I personally did not think n00bKing would be killed because Rels is not scum. And n00bKing's play was so centered around killing Rels that scum decided to best course would be to let him live. On the other hand, n00bKing believes that he is correct about Rels. It is because of this that he thought he would die. Also because he has been killed for 66.66% on Night 1 for all of his games so far. Actually, this doesn't mean much on second thought because we don't know who Doctor saved. Hm...I doubt it would have been n00bKing though.
Okay...good recovery, Moosy. Because there wouldn't be many ways for you to know that Scum decided to let me live, instead of me being saved.
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On July 27 2015 10:24 Tictock wrote:
Nice save medic!
Seems pretty likely that we have Doc/Cop setup going, slim chance of a Vigi who held their shot (which you shouldn't do if your a vigi).
Guess Vigilante could also have been roleblocked. But yeah, Cop seems more likely. Then again, Doctor was more likely than Veteran, and we have a Veteran claim now, so you never know.
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On July 27 2015 10:41 Tictock wrote:
Need to do some re-reading but at the moment my reads haven't really changed.
Most Likely scum:
Moosy
Sulf
Bre
Yeah, tough for anyone's reads to change too much when it's the same cast of characters still.
So, everyone ready to lynch Rels yet? :D
No? 
##Vote: Sulfurus
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On July 27 2015 11:37 ruXxar wrote:Not surprised at all. Figured you were either medic saved or the veteran. To me you were the NK target 100%, which means you are on point..
This is another thing that is likely, but not certain. Mafia didn't kill Kelsier on Night 1 of the last Newbie game because he was right about things YET. Mafia said they killed him because they were afraid he would figure everything out LATER. Could be the same case here with rayn, if he's a player of strong reputation.
On July 27 2015 11:37 ruXxar wrote:
Someone might say "but oh, mafia have a role blocker, why didn't they just role block rayn then shoot him?"
I don't think mafia thinks like that.
*shrug* They probably do if they were in Newbie XII, which used a similar setup, and which contained a lot of discussion about how idiotic it would be for the Mafia to not roleblock their target, in a setup they know contains a Veteran. So assuming rayn's Vet claim is legit (obviously if there is another Vet or a Doctor out there somewhere, they should counter-claim him) then I think we either have: a Mafia team that is dumb, a Mafia team that wasn't in Newbie XII and just didn't think about it (and if they have a coach, the coach didn't bring it up either) or a Mafia team that decided to swing for the fences, because of the Day 1 result, as you hypothesized. I don't think that hypothesis is AS bad as Ticktock does. It's at least within the realm of possibility. Especially if they were reading rayn as Vanilla for some reason or other.
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On July 27 2015 12:38 Tictock wrote:
So if rayn is our vet there is no reason for our Vig or Doc to claim.
Jesus, Ticktock. If rayn is our vet there can't BE a Doc. You JUST posted the setup roles, in the post before this one. lol
Upgrading Ticktock from Town to DumbTown (which is even bettter).
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On July 27 2015 13:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Vigilante was roleblocked or is Scott.
It's not a throwawqy claim BECAUSE MAFIA KNOWS THE SETUP. NOW TOWN ALSO KNOWS THE SETUP.
I think he just meant that there are no consequences to making the claim. Like, you can do it without thinking about it. That's not the way I would use "throwaway claim" but I assume that's what he meant.
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EPT
