EPTNewbie Student Mafia XII
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
(Can't have a Newbie game without THE n00b!) | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
"I will if you tell me your role." | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 10 2015 11:16 Onegu wrote: So I have 12/12 confirmed. But unfortunately F word dude cannot in twice so as soon as we have one more in we will start. I believe F word dude was saying 13/13 because Kelsier came back /in after earlier saying he was /out. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 11 2015 09:14 Fidei86 wrote: My opinion on the ideal town environment is that it is one where everyone contributes, but nobody spams. The best way for townies to get town-read by other townies is to be active, to discuss things and to give your opinion freely. If you're lurking as town, you're actively hurting your own team. Even if you don't say much and make it to the later rounds, and even if you solve the game, you're an easy mislynch if your filter is only one or two pages long. However, at the same time, too much back and forth leads to the thread becoming unmanageable for players with less time -- essentially allowing mafia to hide in amongst the noise. I don't want to over-traffic cop, and I'm hopeful it's not going to be a big problem this game, but ... there it is. Yup. In my last game, I mentioned during Day 1 that this is possibly my favorite part of the General Guide on how to play this game: Don’t babble. If you speak without having a clear goal in mind, you impede the town and decrease everyone else’s productivity. This paralyzes town analysis and decision-making and allows mafia to hide in the chaos But there ended up being a fair bit of babbling in that game. There's a lot more of it in Gaiden. And there will probably be plenty of it in this game, if the first couple of pages are any indication. But I appreciate you at least trying. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 11 2015 11:06 TJHuggins wrote: My only read so far is that Half the Sky is spamming. TJHuggins wrote: Who is HTS? Could be anyone, really! ##Vote: NydusHerMain | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 11 2015 21:15 Half the Sky wrote: noob why the vote on NHM? Can't tell whether your vote is a joke vote or not, the others I can. If the vote were a joke, I'm not sure what about it is supposed to be funny. Like...what's the joke? And my joke votes wouldn't go in the voting thread, and that one is in the voting thread. If you want to see a fake vote, you can look at the one on me from Sulfurus. He wastes space with a fakecheck and a fakevote, and then wastes more space by backreferencing them. That's all you get, from his first two posts. His third (and thus far, final) post is him essentially telling Moosy to "do stuff" without actually doing stuff himself. We get roughly the same amount of value from Kelsier's posts, in which he tells people to "start the game" without actually doing anything that would get the game going. If either of Kelsier/Sulfurus are town, they've already got a headstart on being useless town. Okay, so why the vote on NHM? Two reasons. 1) At the time that NHM votes, there is only ONE player who has really expressed any interest in progressing the game. Fidei86. He was the only one (to that point) who had made a legitimate, "let's start thinking about the actual game itself" type of post. And that is who NHM chooses to vote against: the one player who showed an indication that they might be taking the game seriously. 2) The other reason should not be revealed yet. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 12 2015 01:31 TJHuggins wrote: I see "silentwarrior" is living up to his name. And "WonnaPlay" apparently does not. It's funny to me that Scott already felt like he needed to "re-read" before he was comfortable saying anything...when we were only 2 pages into the game. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 12 2015 02:32 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Second post there is sketchier to me, in that it seems serious in its attempts to prod the town, despite not actually bringing up any discussion that will lead to a conclusion. That's a little smelly to me. That said, it's tiny enough that it could fly either way. On July 12 2015 02:53 MoosyDoosy wrote:Exactly what I was thinking. His first post seems to be more of a first page banter post. The second one is asking for clarification although as you say, it leads nowhere. Grokken's post does not "prod the town" it only prods NHM. And since NHM hasn't responded, I agree with HtS that "there's nothing to follow up on." | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 12 2015 05:30 MoosyDoosy wrote: I was an earnest townie last Newbie Student Mafia game with a monster filter. :3 Besides ruXxar everyone pretty much knew I was a townie which is why I want to change things up here and make things interesting. Change things up in what way? Are you saying you want to vary your play? Or do you mean something else? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 12 2015 06:22 Grokken wrote: In conclusion, I think we should try to lynch one of the people who is keeping up with the thread, but aren't making useful contributions. These people are in my opinion more likely to be mafia rather than the people who aren't saying anything at all. At this point, these people are Sulfurus, scott31337 and KelsierSC. AND NydusHerMain, who you conspicuously left out of this group, even though two of your townreads (Moosy and myself) are voting against him. Scott has only one post, but you decide that he's "lurking" and think he's a good lynch. NHM you describe as "inactive" instead, and you want to "wait until he gets back." Why the preferential treatment? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 12 2015 07:49 MoosyDoosy wrote: Ofc vary my play. I'm not sure how you could read this any other way. o.O I could not think of any other way to read it. But I wanted to give you a chance to dig yourself out of that hole anyway, since "vary my play" would be a stupid answer. You were town and you were widely townread, and you were night-killed on Night 2, after I had been night-killed on Night 1. Now you want to "change things up" and "make things interesting" by varying your play, so that people will NOT be able to townread you so easily? How is that good strategy, Moosy? If you're town, shouldn't you WANT your alignment to be evident again, as it was in that game? You sound like you are pre-emptively making excuses for not matching your own town play. So that if someone like Sulfurus or Scott or myself says "Moosy is playing nothing like he did in the last game...where he was town" you'll be able to say "Well I already told you I was going to vary my play this time!" See what I'm saying? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 12 2015 23:33 TJHuggins wrote: I didn't think you were even allowed to vote for yourself. Players may not vote for themselves. So the vote count posted on Page 12 is not completely accurate. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 12 2015 05:30 MoosyDoosy wrote: I see what you're saying but posting the same way would just be boring for me and everyone else. Eh, just keep an open mind about me. Me keeping an open mind is automatic, you don't have to ask for it. But frankly, I could give a shit what is boring for you. If you're Town, help me win! :D On July 12 2015 07:49 MoosyDoosy wrote:Also, n00bKing, you need to stop creating specific scenarios. Like, it's cool you can think that far ahead unlike me but then you'll just fall into the hole that ruXxar did and interpret everything I do as Mafia. We saw his rationale for why he thought I was Mafia and it was pretty convoluted and not pretty. I ain't ruXxar. And I'm sure you're not going to try to say I'm tunneled on you or something, when I haven't voted against you (yet...) On July 12 2015 08:42 MoosyDoosy wrote:Anyway, things are already becoming interesting what with people thinking I'm Mafia. And that's the goal of this game for me. To make life interesting. :3 Again, if you're Town, then I would be happier if your goal for this game was to achieve your win condition, and not "to make life interesting." All of the above are things I could have said last night, but I decided to give you more time, before jumping all over those posts. So that if you were waiting for specific types of reactions from certain players, you would have an opportunity to see what would happen. But I think it's gone on long enough. If there's any method to your actions, it's time to move on to the next phase of the plan. MoosyDoosy wrote: If anyone does want to talk I am in more of a cooperative mindset. So if any of you have questions this is the time to ask. You think so? Because to me, you don't seem like you're in a more cooperative mindset at all. To me, it seems more like you're already picking up some of the WORST habits that some of the veterans have (being obstinate and useless, and adopting an "If you want to mislynch me, then screw you anyway" attitude) instead of trying to develop any of the best habits that any of the veterans have. So yeah, I have a question for you: Why are you playing against the Town's win condition? Is it because you don't have the Town's win condition? Or is it because you aren't following the rules of the game? We know you ignored the rule that says you can't vote for yourself. But IF you are Town, then you're also ignoring this rule: "Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game." I know you've said that you want to make things interesting and keep yourself from being bored. If all you cared about was entertaining yourself, you could have just gone and masturbated. But this game is a TEAM exercise. If you're Town, start helping your team, please. If you're Scum, just keep on keepin' on, since it is obviously getting the votes on you. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On May 22 2015 11:34 Sulfurus wrote: @NinjaBunnies the most important point in this game so far is when Breshke 1st stared pushing on Sicklucker since the conflict between the two has defined the entire game. Speaking of that, Breshke is my top scum since he continuously pushes against Sicklucker with very bad reasoning (#159 he complains that he has disappeared and hasn't thought critically only 3 hours into the game) I also scum read Murray due to his weak and untrue accusation against Dis in post #191 which made me think Sick is town since he tried Bandwagoning on him but he has since rescinded his vote. In this game, Sulfurus' 2nd post was just him quoting his own 1st post, in which he fakeclaimed a red check, and made a fake vote that he didn't actually put in the voting thread. In Newbie XI, Sulfurus was lurky, and useless, and SCUM. In this game, Sulfurus is lurky, and useless, and...draw your own conclusions. If Moosy starts actually doing something worthwhile, then I'm all about the idea of just lynching Sulfurus on Day 1 of every game until he stops flipping Red, or starts participating in games. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 12 2015 12:09 Half the Sky wrote: On MD, aside from what others have said, I also don't like the comment "creating specific scenarios" - unless you are directly accusing noobking of actually lying about what happened last game, it would otherwise seem he's relating from another game - database on NSM shows what noob said actually happened re: the nightkills so that is a clear indication you were in decent standing amongst the playerbase in that game. In Moosy's defense (since we know he's shown no interest in defending himself) I think the "specific scenario" he was talking about is the one where he says he'll be changing up his play, as a cover for when he later does not play the way he had previously, when Town. I would not count that line as a strike against him (though I obviously have no problem admitting there are strikes against him). | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 12 2015 12:11 Half the Sky wrote: Alright, good, thanks for clarifying. I wasn't sure by when you said "flush out" - I usually think "get rid of" but you simply meant "expose" or force them to play. Fair enough. This could be a US vs. UK thing, on how the phrase is normally used. Since EAGLE and I are both in the US, I'll confirm for him that in this context, for Americans, "flush out" would mean to flush out of hiding or flush out into the open, rather than flushing them away. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 12 2015 13:35 Grokken wrote: Mainly because he popped in early on, made 2 posts, then disappeared and hasn't posted since, while the other have made a few more posts. Yeah, no. Sulfurus has had 1 more post than NHM, but Scott still hasn't made a 2nd post yet. The others have not "made a few more posts" than NHM, when you have Scott in that group of others. So NHM remains conspicuous by his absence from your list. I don't think there will be an opportunity to consider seriously pressuring you today, but I'm making this post just as a note to myself (or reminder to anyone that reads my filter later) that Grokken says things that are not true. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 12 2015 22:07 KelsierSC wrote: Groken and Wp look like scum so far . Terrible list posts early in the game. Looks like Fidei and WonnaPlay have both interpreted this post to mean that "list posts are terrible." I interpreted it to mean that you just think THEIR lists are terrible. Can you clarify on that? And if I'm right that you just mean THEIR lists are terrible, please expound on what you think makes the lists terrible. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 13 2015 03:31 MoosyDoosy wrote: This is not a classic scum tell. It's pretty obvious I'm being a shitty townie so his analysis is pretty on point as usual. I really don't see how you guys think I'm Mafia. XD Thanks for the compliment on my consistently on-point analysis! You could totally pocket me, if you were Mafia (and weren't getting yourself lynched today!) | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 13 2015 03:54 KelsierSC wrote: live reports, basically summarising what has happened in the game so far but not adding anything to it. What's added to it is their opinions. Most of the positions they take may not be interesting or unexpected. They may not advance us much toward winning the game. But at least they are taking positions, that I can later use to help determine their motivations. I'd rather have players making "shitty list posts" than players that aren't here to participate (Scott) or are here but refuse to participate (Moosy) | ||
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n00bKing
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 Just by the way, does anyone know of any decent websites for playing Mafia-by-Forum? | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 05:39 Fidei86 wrote: Uh ... This one? NOPE. | ||
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n00bKing
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Unless you know more than what is bolded, your post could just as easily refer to Scott. Anyway, I have moved my vote to Sulfurus. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 06:50 Half the Sky wrote: If I counted right, the votes are tied 3-3, with MD getting lynched for the tiebreaker. MD FFS SAVE YOURSELF IF YOU ARE TOWN. Believe that there are now 4 votes on Sulfurus. You/fidei/Kelsier/me. And in your 3 votes on Moosy, are you counting his own vote? Because it won't/shouldn't count. | ||
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n00bKing
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 07:10 KelsierSC wrote: welp thats a lot of confirmed town Welp, it's the 3 players I already figured were Town (Fidei, HtS, me) and now we added you! Not bad, not bad. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 07:10 rsoultin wrote: Sulfurus the Mafia Godfather has been lynched. TJHuggins wrote: I was refreshing the voting thread and never saw the change? Why was it even included in the first place if it wasn't allowed? That's silly. U mad, bro?  | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 07:15 TJHuggins wrote: You pointed that out but none the less his vote was included in the voting thread for quite some time both before and after. I thought that perhaps it was frowned upon but no strictly forbidden. That's odd that you would think that, considering that this happened, all the way back on Page 13: On July 13 2015 02:00 n00bKing wrote: Players may not vote for themselves. So the vote count posted on Page 12 is not completely accurate. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 07:32 TJHuggins wrote: Also doesn't giving people only a warning for not voting a bit of a bad precedent to set? Isn't this essentially akin to allowing each player to make one non-vote each game? The rules are as clear about the warning for the first failure to vote, as they are about the fact that players cannot vote for themselves. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 02:27 n00bKing wrote: Here is Sulfurus' 2nd post in Newbie X (when he was Town): In this game, Sulfurus' 2nd post was just him quoting his own 1st post, in which he fakeclaimed a red check, and made a fake vote that he didn't actually put in the voting thread. In Newbie XI, Sulfurus was lurky, and useless, and SCUM. In this game, Sulfurus is lurky, and useless, and...draw your own conclusions. If Moosy starts actually doing something worthwhile, then I'm all about the idea of just lynching Sulfurus on Day 1 of every game until he stops flipping Red, or starts participating in games. Guess I'll have to keep waiting! On July 11 2015 09:18 Sulfurus wrote: I'm cop with a guilty check on noobking ##noobking get rekt Don't eff with the n00b, Sulfurus.  In addition to the 4 players who voted out the Godfather, I am also randomly townreading GhandiEAGLE for some reason or other. So that's 5 people I feel pretty good about. | ||
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n00bKing
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Half the Sky wrote: If there's a DT, check any of the lurkers/nulls - NHM/Scott/SW/WP Would be interested in hearing opinions from others, on whether this would be the best use of a Cop's ability. A null is always statistically more likely to be Town than not. So if a Cop just goes stumbling into that group, he can expect to get a Town check back. The good thing about getting a town check on someone in that group is that you won't mislynch them, when otherwise, it is always tempting to lynch a lurker. But the bad thing about getting a town check on someone in that group is that...even once you know you can trust them, how much help are you really going to get from them? If Nydus were to come back, and we knew he could be trusted, then maybe that would be awesome, having a vet that is known to be Town, for sure. But right now, I don't see how we can bank on Scott/SilentWarrior/WonnaPlay giving us a lot of assistance in reasoning things out, even if they were known to be Town. Grokken and TJ have both been much more active. I'm more curious about whether those guys are actually allies of mine, than I am about whether Scott is. And each is suspicious, in his own way. They both had their vote on Moosy while the Godfather was getting lynched. So that's not great. And then: Grokken - Kelsier hated his list post. I didn't, really. But Kelsier could still be right, even though I didn't see anything. What was more suspicious to me was that when I started to turn thread sentiment against Moosy, Grokken quickly flipped his read on Moosy from Green to Red. TJ - Being pissed about the Sulfurus lynch isn't necessarily alignment-indicative. Because if he were scum & smart, he would raise hell about it in the scum thread, and not here in the main thread, where it paints him in a negative light. But he could have been WIFOM'ing, or he could have been reacting in an emotional moment, without first thinking about how it would be perceived (as this is his first Mafia-by-Forum game, it sounded like). Moreover, there was something specific about TJ's behavior (that I won't bring to light just yet) that I found suspicious throughout all of Day 1. A town-check on this guy would keep me from spending the rest of the game tunneled on him. lol | ||
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n00bKing
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 hehI think it's worthwhile for people to give advice to pretty much any role that can use an action. The only reason for anyone to talk during the Night Phase is to guide the actions of the Blue Roles. That's it. Otherwise, no one should say anything until a minute before the deadline. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 08:05 silentwarrior wrote: Hey guys, good lynch. As of now, I think that, aside from those who voted on sulfurus, these two are town: Grokken and MoosyDoosy. MoosyDoosy is a little obvious, sulfurus woulnd't go for him if he was another mafia. And a sacrifice here seems unlikely, seeing as MoosyDoosy was nowhere a done deal, so he could have been saved still. Sulfurus getting on the MoosyDoosy train seems like a way to just vote on the most popular one and slip by. He basically admitted to doing this even. Then Grokken is because of this post: He pings sulfurus as a scum lean fairly early, before any of the recent suspicion started. That means that most likely that they aren't mafia partners, as mafia will not give scumlean to their own partners when there is no other big suspicion on him. This leads me to believe that he is town as well. Actually, I think that "when there is no other big suspicion on him" is a good time to scumlean a mafia teammate. Because it's unlikely that anything will come of it in the near term. And if something does come of it later, you'd be able to say "I was scumreading that guy since Day 1!" That post from Grokken is probably a point in his favor, but it still leaves plenty of room for error. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 08:25 silentwarrior wrote: I also lean town on TJHuggins, since he posted that sulfurus was his second on scum list. This was also before any of the voting began, though after sulfurus posted that super scummy post and was tagged for it by Half the sky. Still a good townlean for me. Also, i get a townvibe from wonnaplay. Of course, I could be all wrong about this, and mafia decided to sacrifice sulfurus, but dont really think so right now. Regardless, those reamaining that I think the mafia is among is : scott31337, GhandiEAGLE, NydusHerMain. One or two of these three are probably mafia. Okay, so apparently I don't agree with much that silentwarrior has to say during Night 1. "Second on scum list" is a fairly commonplace spot for mafia to put their teammates. Say that he looks scummy (in case he gets lynched) but don't actually try to get him lynched, because someone else is first on your scum list. And for you to be "all wrong about this" doesn't really require mafia to have sacrificed Sulfurus. He could have been lynched against their will, and your reads could still be wrong anyway. Of course, you having reads that are different from mine doesn't make you scum (and doesn't even make you wrong)...but I still don't have to like it! | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 09:22 Half the Sky wrote: Well here's the thing, there are two ways to play this, if there is a DT in this game. Clearing lurkers or red checking them will help you in LYLO - as scum will push a certain way through a game and then boom late game clearing people may catch them off guard. Alternatively you can also look at people whose current behaviour (if reasonably active) are soemwhat questionable or you cannot get a good read on them or if they appear controversial (like some people are townreading and others are scumreading) then they are also good checks. Given the current game state, I think for example Grokken would be a good check in this category. You were who I was talking to when I said I would be interested in hearing opinions from "others." So by "others" I mean anyone BUT you.  | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 09:38 Half the Sky wrote: anyhow....if you are town, you are in a good position to tell us who the scummers - if any - were on your wagon. Who do you think they were? He's in an even BETTER position to tell us, if he's scum! :D MoosyDoosy wrote: tbh I have 2 suspicions but I'd rather wait. If I'm right, I'd rather not say it and die. So you don't want to be night-killed? You only want to be mislynched? Don't worry, there's no chance of the bad guys killing you, no matter what suspicions you want to share. You could name the other 2 mafia members, which one has which role, their social security numbers, and what dinner plans they have for tonight, and they still are not killing you. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 21:37 Half the Sky wrote: Grokken's thread sentiment point I did query that earlier and I think noob, you mentioned that too, do you think this response makes sense for the read change? Not sure if you missed it. I did see it, but that response doesn't really move me either way. Does that answer make sense? Yeah, some. But we could expect him to give an answer that would make at least SOME sense. It's a little early in the game for him to be getting tangled up in his own posts yet, so it isn't like I was hoping he would say "Yep, I changed my read cuz thread sentiment!" So while I'm slightly suspicious of Grokken, that POST is null, for me. Did it cause any reaction in you? | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 14 2015 02:16 Tictock wrote: This is literally scotts only post, and it is wierd that he would say he needs to reread anything on the 3rd page of the game. I'm used to town!scott being more involved, so I'm thinking he rolled scum this game. Yeah, I made the same comment, about it being strange for him to say he needs to "re-read" when we had only just started. Scott COULD be scum here, but man...just how much "mailing it in" can we expect from one scum team? Sulf had like 5 posts, and Scott has 1? That's their gameplan? Ticktock wrote: Oh also I doubt he [Grokken] would make a list post like this that calls out Sulf so early if he were mafia. Still think "Neutral read so far, maybe slight scumlean" is not much of a call-out. But I wouldn't push for a vigilante shot on Grokken or anything. So there will be more time to evaluate him. (Though I may not be around for that, since I've been killed on Night 1 in 100% of my TL Mafia games! And Fidei requesting that HtS receive protection clears the way for my demise!) | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 14 2015 03:03 scott31337 wrote: I'm so sorry I forgot to vote guys - deadline and other things blew right by me. All that posting you were doing in your other game didn't remind you that you were in this game? | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 13 2015 23:36 Half the Sky wrote: Fidei, on TJH - (going to spoiler quotes for readability) + Show Spoiler [initial read] + On July 12 2015 01:49 TJHuggins wrote: My initial reads so far is that i am town leaning on Fidei. I like the things he said in relation to spamming, and I think that him relating the perspective to a previous game where he was town feels like he's looking at the game from the perspective of a town. When he responded to HTS regarding talking about anti-spam being easy, he seems genuine. Or maybe it's just because I like his writing. No clue. My initial scum read is Grokken. It's nothing all that strong but I'm getting a wierd feeling about the things he's posted. To me it feels like he is trying to find ways to participate and seem town by chiming in now and again but really has no clue what to write about. I think that one sentence posts that appear to contribute to the game and don't really offer anything just kind of irk me the wrong way. I guess it's worth noting he did write that thing about Dota as well which was also one sentence but that's neither here nor there when it comes to the game I think. When I went back and read the post about him showing off his dota stats that actually reads to me a bit more towny now that I think about it, so not really sure. just an initial read. This post, there's an agenda in the sense that this read lacks context. First quote was part of a joke between him and Ghandi, and nothing should be made of it and TJH tried to. Second quote, there was reason to question NHM and that question isn't for naught. Overall he's making something out of nothing. I also feel he did the same thing when he tried to pin Fidei for the wording on MD earlier. + Show Spoiler [followup - "town prodding"] + On July 12 2015 03:10 TJHuggins wrote: I agree that it was grokken's town prodding question that got me suspicious of him in the first place. Then right after he says "this posts doesn't really offer anything" he then says it's a "town prodding question" (which noob called him out for anyways) so then why did he say before that it doesn't really offer anything? The wording association between those two quotes is really awkward. + Show Spoiler [comment on Sulfurus] + On July 13 2015 07:14 TJHuggins wrote: I so strongly felt that MD is the most obvious mafia there could possible be... I was going to be so mad if Sulfuras flipped town. Now I'm not so sure since sulfuras was voting on MD. I need to reread Sulfuras posts to see why he was voting on MD. Now TJH already had Sulfurus as 2 on his list of scummies so why would he need to reread it - additionally there was nothing Sulfur even said on MD which was the biggest issue I had. + Show Spoiler [Kelsier scumread] + On July 12 2015 23:16 TJHuggins wrote: Kelsier, I'm wondering if you would care to explain what factors weighed in on your decision here to vote for Wonnaplay as opposed to Grokken when from your previous post it appears you considered them equally scummy for the same reason? On July 12 2015 23:18 TJHuggins wrote: I think it's more like: Act like a fool and get town read for it. This one is pretty simple - he appears scumread Kelsier and then he drops that read altogether in his lynch list. Or at least it's not clear why he dropped him or where he stands on him now. TLDR - there's a bit of awkward progression and grasping for straws with the scumreads he's putting in. Also his reaction post-lynch was a bit more subdued and I'm ignoring the issues he's had with the mods, I'm more specifically talking about the "mod error I'll take it" post. Most of this makes me say "meh" but there aren't any cases being presented on any other players (yet) that I find more compelling. So it just goes to show that there isn't POWERFUL evidence against anyone right now. (Which is probably normal, on Night 1.) What I didn't like about TJ was that he made absolutely no effort whatsoever to read (or even interact with) the only person in the game that he knew before the game started. If I were Town, and was in a game with a bunch of strangers + ONE person I knew quite well, then without a doubt my early focus would be on interacting with that person, to try and get a read on them, because I know things about their personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else on my team. TJ doesn't do this at all. Conversely, if I were scum in that situation, I might make a point of avoiding that person, because they know things about MY personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else in the Town. And I might steer clear of them (possibly without even realizing I'm doing it) to keep them from getting a read on me. From reading his filter, it's obvious which route TJ went on this issue. So if I'm killed tonight, I think you guys should make a point of questioning TJ on this. And if he has what seems to be a perfectly reasonable explanation for that behavior, then great! However, if all he can give you is some line about "I knew NHM was afk for real-life reasons, so I didn't bother to try and talk to him, because I knew it would be pointless" then...NOT IMPRESSED. | ||
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On July 14 2015 05:00 Tictock wrote: I'm torn about TJ's EoD reaction. On the one hand I dont think scum would post like that In game over in their QT, but on the other hand I don't see town getting so worked up over that host mistake when it meant we lynched scum. The mistake had been discussed a fair bit as well (that MD cannot vote for himself) so it should not have been a suprise, yet he seemed genuinely upset that MD's vote on himself was not counted. I experienced this same thought process after the lynch. I definitely thought that a mafia player would be more likely to complain in the scum thread, instead of in the main thread. But I had a hard time getting past the notion that a town player would not be likely to complain AT ALL. | ||
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On July 14 2015 20:36 Fidei86 wrote: @n00bking Did you ever post your response to your point at paragraph 2? If you did, could you link/reference me? If you didn't, can you say now? I did, and it was this: "What I didn't like about TJ was that he made absolutely no effort whatsoever to read (or even interact with) the only person in the game that he knew before the game started. If I were Town, and was in a game with a bunch of strangers + ONE person I knew quite well, then without a doubt my early focus would be on interacting with that person, to try and get a read on them, because I know things about their personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else on my team. TJ doesn't do this at all. Conversely, if I were scum in that situation, I might make a point of avoiding that person, because they know things about MY personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else in the Town. And I might steer clear of them (possibly without even realizing I'm doing it) to keep them from getting a read on me. From reading his filter, it's obvious which route TJ went on this issue. So if I'm killed tonight, I think you guys should make a point of questioning TJ on this. And if he has what seems to be a perfectly reasonable explanation for that behavior, then great! However, if all he can give you is some line about 'I knew NHM was afk for real-life reasons, so I didn't bother to try and talk to him, because I knew it would be pointless' then...NOT IMPRESSED." That was bothering me throughout the entirety of Day 1. But I didn't want to bring it up, so I could watch and see if things changed, without TJ knowing what I was watching for. Things never changed, and once NHM replaced out, I didn't think there was any reason to keep it under wraps anymore. | ||
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[B] SW I have one reservation on him. There might be some distancing going on. I checked his filter again. There wasn't a weigh in on MD although the only thing SW said d1 was that he'd rather NHM over MD get lynched. However, look at his filter - first 5 posts on first page of his filter were before the lynch. His two posts on voting NHM were after my Sulfurus tag, and he makes zero mention one way or other on Sulfurus. Furthermore looking at votes, scum do and can hide on as solo votes, and a bit more apparent in newbie games (veterans are a bit more careful) so seeing SW solo voting nhm might be something to think about. If he posted his vote/observation on NHM before my tag or if he'd taken any stance on Sulfurus I'd have less reason to suspect him, but him not appearing to take a stance at all on Sulfurus is a red flag. (His last post prior to EoD was 56m prior to lynch, and returned 1h after lynch, first stance on Sulfur was 1h25m after lynch.) I don't think it's that big of a red flag. Sulfurus offered very little to take a stance on. I could see a new player looking at Sulfurus' filter and thinking "there is nothing here to work with." Even so, I will still scumlean SilentWarrior a little bit. When there are 2 scum left to find, I don't want to have a suspect list that is only two players. So I'll make some room for SilentWarrior. | ||
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On July 14 2015 07:11 Half the Sky wrote: Also I have been roleblocked. I just received note of this. Well...then if the scum team knows there is a Vigilante in the setup, you can probably expect to be roleblocked again on Night 2 as well. Because they will be worried that you are yourself the Vigilante. In reality, the Vigilante may just have not fired yet, but they probably won't take the chance, and would roleblock you again. If anyone besides you gets RB'd on Night 2, then it's probably a Cop setup instead. On July 14 2015 07:11 Half the Sky wrote: This means a medic dodge is possible and the prot role is a medic. In randomised open setups, if there is roleblockable veteran in the setup, usually the RB and NK actions are stacked on the target to avoid chancing hitting the veteran. The fact that the nightactions were on separate targets, indicates that the prot role is likely to be a medic. Yeah, I strongly agree with this. I think there is a Doctor in the setup, and that Kelsier was killed because the scum team was worried that you or I would be healed. I think this theory is much better than ones where the scum team suspected Kelsier of being a blue role, or were just generally afraid of him. | ||
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On July 14 2015 09:29 GhandiEAGLE wrote: By essential information is that a blue claim? Or just something your saying. I don't know, but I wanna find out! ##Vote: TJHuggins Would love to see some more votes on TJ, just to push him into carrying through with posting his "essential information." | ||
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On July 14 2015 16:27 Fidei86 wrote: Strong Town-lean: N00b - Again, I don't see any reason for n00b to start pinging out a scum buddy this early, particularly not where the vote circumstances were so close. Unless the scum team includes Moosy, I don't see a world in which n00b is Mafia. Won't worry much about defending myself, since I'm under no real pressure anyway, but I'll just briefly mention that even if Moosy were scum, it still doesn't create a world in which I can be Mafia, unless Moosy is the roleblocker. If Moosy ever flipped Goon, I don't think it makes me look worse at all. It would mean I saved the Goon on my team, in order to instead ditch...the Godfather? That's a push if there's no Cop in the setup, and a disaster if there is a Cop in the setup. | ||
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On July 14 2015 08:09 GhandiEAGLE wrote: I think Moosy is either playing a really abysmal town, or is scum. I'm still not sold enough to vote (I realize I say that a lot), but honestly constantly deflecting suspicion with sarcasm. Despite that sarcasm, he doesn't do shit for the town. But then, at the end of his wall of text, he says: On July 14 2015 08:09 GhandiEAGLE wrote: I need meaningful contribution from Moosey or I'm not likely moving off of my vote without heavy evidence on someone else. ##Vote: MoosyDoosy Not sold enough to vote against him. But then he votes against him. And says he won't move his vote off of him without "heavy evidence" on someone else. Despite this, just a few posts later, he says: On July 14 2015 08:12 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Filler and waffle is over, I've started making legit posts again. Waffle is over, huh? "I'm still not sold enough to vote." *Votes* How are you going to tell us that you're all done waffling, when you can't keep from changing your position between the start of a post and the end of that same post? Also "too scummy to be scum" is his read on HtS, from Page 22. He says "Untouchable right now. No fun there :<" Which reads kinda like "I sure would like to see HtS lynched, but I know I can't make that happen." No mafia member could make this post without realizing how terrible it sounds, right? His read on Scott probably isn't "too scummy to be scum" but his certainty that a player who HASN'T PLAYED is town might be what people sometimes call "TMI." At the time of Ghandi's reads post, there wasn't much incentive for him to try and get Scott lynched. It's not like Scott is going to hurt the scum team, with the amount of "work" he had done up to that point. So it's an easy opportunity to go ahead and townread a town player, since that player isn't one you really need to get rid of anyway. Ghandi's post on Page 25, where he moves his vote to Grokken, says that one of the reasons he's scumreading Grokken is that he left his vote on Moosy during Day 1, in the Moosy vs. Sulfurus race. But Ghandi was himself voting against Moosy on Day TWO, so...? Ghandi's "neutral" read on me is particularly damning. He says that he doesn't like my filter, but as HtS pointed out, if he wants to go against thread sentiment, he should probably explain his reasoning (and since he's not on the Newbie list, he should possibly know better). Even if it was true that he disliked my filter (and he was able to explain why), it still doesn't make sense to say that my bad filter and my participation in Sulfurus' lynch "cancel each other out." It was MY vote that put the Godfather in a casket. You could feel free to say that Half the Sky's arguments against Sulfurus convinced more people than mine did, but it was still my vote that ultimately killed him. That's heavily town-indicative, and it would take a REALLY scummy filter to "cancel it out" and leave me as neutral. And this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/488742-newbie-student-mafia-xii?page=13#255) was probably SOME sort of factor, in getting us a Red flip on Day 1. So finding a Town justification for null-reading me looks pretty tough, I think. But if I try to think of a Scum justification for null-reading me, it's a little easier. If the scum team does indeed know that there is a Doctor in the game, then they will probably continue to be uncomfortable with the idea of attacking me or HtS, just as they appeared to be uncomfortable during Night 1 (and killed Kelsier instead, even though he was not being town-read AS strongly as HtS and myself). If they know that trying to Night-kill me will always be a crapshoot (so long as the Doctor is still alive) then they have to try to get me lynched, or endgame me. But to try to endgame me, they have to endgame HtS too, because she's not getting lynched ever (based on how thread sentiment is crediting her with being the largest reason Sulfurus was lynched). And yes, they could endgame us both at once (2 against 2) but you would HATE to have to already pick 2 players to let survive to the finish, when it's this early in the game. So maybe the plan was to endgame HtS + someone else. Leave open the possibility of getting me mislynched later, and then night-kill Kelsier and fidei. Ghandi is townreading fidei much more strongly than he's townreading me. Which doesn't make any sense to me at all, unless the plan is to night-kill fidei, and see whether the town will ever warm up to the idea of mislynching me. Ghandi is probably scum, even though he's "too scummy to actually be scum." Would still like to see TJ take the vote lead, and get the "essential information" he teased us with. Anyone who fails to deliver on a promise like that deserves the noose. | ||
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On July 16 2015 00:25 scott31337 wrote: ##Vote Tjhuggins Excellent. And now...we wait. *rubs hands together* | ||
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On July 16 2015 02:30 Tictock wrote: Pretty sad that there has been such little posting since I went to bed. You don't have to like it, but if you think Ghandi/TJ is the likely scum team, then you can't really be too surprised that the thread died. It would mean that all 9 of the Town votes had been stacked up on scum. Ghandi makes some effort to make another player or two look bad (so that maybe they will emerge as a lynch candidate in the place of himself and TJ) but every time he says something, people tell him it just makes him look worse, and not better. So not too shocking that he went silent for a while. TJ might be so butthurt about Moosy's self-vote not counting that he can't even be bothered to defend himself at all. On July 16 2015 02:30 Tictock wrote:Also TJ has effectively disappeared from the game... So he's got suspicious behavior during Day 1, followed by low activity and unfulfilled promises on Day 2? That sounds like someone I'd be excited to lynch. | ||
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1) If possible, please elaborate on what made you so confident in Scott being Town. 2) If possible, please explain why you said you weren't sold enough yet to vote against Moosy, and then voted against him (in the same post). 3) If possible, please explain what you dislike so much about my filter, which causes you to rank me as a neutral read, even though I posted the vote that buried Sulfurus. | ||
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On July 16 2015 05:01 GhandiEAGLE wrote: 1) What made me confident that Scott was town is because he was an experienced mafia player (supposedly; Onegu kind of ballsed up the list). To me, it would seem like an experienced mafia player would want to, in some capacity, play the game. If he were picked as scum, he'd almost definitely be more engaged, but if he got a role like Vanilla Town, I could understand him more or less AFKing out of disinterest. Honestly I can't see someone noticing that they're mafia and just deciding that they'd rather not post than actually try and win the game. Why sign up at all if you don't want to play? Scott was lynched (as Mafia Roleblocker) on Day 1 of Newbie X, largely because he was AFKing. But maybe you didn't know that. Well, there's an example of Mafia AFK'ing in THIS game too. Sulfurus was lynched (as Mafia Godfather) on Day 1, and had all of 5 posts when he flipped Red. 5. Five. Five posts, I said. Additionally, "Why sign up at all if you don't want to play?" was all I could think, when watching Moosy in this game. But you were okay with voting against HIM, while randomly townreading Scott. I just feel like your reads are determined more by game circumstances than they are by post content. | ||
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On July 16 2015 06:24 Half the Sky wrote: Annnnnnnddddddd ninjaed.........WP just hammered. GhandiEAGLE(5): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior, WonnaPlay TJHuggins(4): Noobking, MoosyDoosy, scott31337 Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE scott31337 (1): Tictock Not Voting(1): TJHuggins TJ is actually at 3 votes. I'll be around at the deadline to countersnipe, if needed. But I won't break my back trying to talk anyone into switching off of Ghandi and onto TJ. Ghandi is a pretty good lynch, I think. And if he flips Town, we won't have to feel TOO sad about it, because it's so likely we would have lynched him sooner or later anyway. | ||
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On July 16 2015 06:47 Half the Sky wrote: To be fair even if GE is scum, I will have a tougher time deciding between Scott and TJH because there are associations for both. I won't have a tougher time. But if GE is scum, it won't really matter. We should have time to hang them both. And silentwarrior too, even. If GE is scum, we have to be REALLY far off base to still lose somehow. | ||
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On July 13 2015 07:53 n00bKing wrote: In addition to the 4 players who voted out the Godfather, I am also randomly townreading GhandiEAGLE for some reason or other. So that's 5 people I feel pretty good about. Man, if only Ghandi had never made another post after I said this...lol | ||
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On July 16 2015 01:44 Half the Sky wrote: I took your vote in the context of your overall play and it seemed that in addition to what you said you just didn't even consider Sulfurus though Tic (or was it noob? one of them) qualified it might not have been much to work with, then the same could be argued for NHM, sparse yet suspicious. Yeah, I think this is noteworthy. It was me that hypothesized that maybe silentwarrior didn't comment on Sulfurus because there just wasn't much in Sulf's filter to work with. But "not much in the filter to work with" didn't stop silentwarrior from voting against NHM. As silentwarrior mentioned, I hadn't moved off of NHM yet when he casts that vote. So if the tide turns against NHM and he gets lynched and flips green, SW can at least say that his responsibility for NHM's death is not as great as mine. If the scum team were to be Sulfurus/TJHuggins/silentwarrior, then SW's reason to be looking for some random place to toss his vote is fairly straightforward. TJ and Sulf had already voted against Moosy. So maybe SW would want to vote elsewhere, just to keep them from all following the same blueprint. Once the push on Sulfurus gets going, and we have a Sulf vs. Moosy race, which one can silentwarrior reasonably choose in that situation? Again, he doesn't really want to vote against Moosy, when both of his teammates are already there. But he doesn't really want to vote Sulfurus, and get the Godfather lynched on Day 1. So he sits tight and hopes the Moosy lynch will go through (all the more likely, if the Scum team was thinking that Moosy's self-vote actually counted). By the time I drop the hammer on Sulfurus, there are only 12 minutes left in the Day. And there were only 4 minutes left in the Day by the time the vote count is clarified by the Mods, making it absolutely clear that my vote on Sulfurus DID drop the hammer on him. Too late for the scum team to get Moosy back in the lead, even if silentwarrior was around (and not legitimately afk). This "association case" against TJ/silentwarrior is not spectacularly strong. But I do think SW choosing to vote against NHM is a point against him, based on what the explanation would be for him to never say anything about Sulfurus, and based on how I can reason out a motivation for him to vote there, if he's Scum. | ||
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On July 16 2015 07:47 Tictock wrote: If we have a Vigi they should absolutely shoot tonight. And target whom? | ||
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On July 16 2015 07:13 Half the Sky wrote: Scott could have tried to distance himself from that vote given that a lot of people were scumreading him. He is experienced enough to know this. But it's realllllyyyy wifomy though and extremely high risk (assuming TJH is scum) given that scum are already down a player and he wouldn't stand a chance if he was the last scummer. I think Scott is actually LESS likely to be scum here from a VCA standpoint. I agree. | ||
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On July 16 2015 08:09 MoosyDoosy wrote: The most interesting thing I came across was Grokken and silentwarrior. silentwarrior lists Grokken as town lean while Grokken is starting to look worse and worse. I hate making associative cases but if n00bKing would look into this it would be great because he's decent at sniffing these out. I do not have an association case to make against a hypothetical Grokken/silentwarrior team. One of them has 1 post that makes it seem like the other could be a scum teammate, and the other has 2 posts that make it seem like the other could be a scum teammate. It is very flimsy, not as strong as the association case against TJHuggins/silentwarrior that I posted on Page 32. And the TJ Huggins/silentwarrior association case is still not the strongest one. MoosyDoosy wrote: I'm going to read into Ticktock and TJHuggins some more This is the strongest one. You'll note that the TJHuggins/silentwarrior team and the TJHuggins/Ticktock team have a common thread... By the way, not only am I unable to make a good association case against Grokken/silentwarrior, but I cannot make a good association case against Grokken/ANYONE. If Grokken is scum, he has done an excellent job at avoiding clear ties with his scum teammate, and has really only tripped himself up one time the entire game. That would be an outstanding performance, for someone who claims that this is his first time ever playing Mafia-by-forum. | ||
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I'll start with: REASONS TO THINK GROKKEN IS TOWN 1) As has been mentioned, one of Grokken's first posts involves him attacking Sulfurus for contentless posts. He labels Sulf as "maybe slight scum lean." This is not much by itself, but every little bit counts. 2) In that same post, he quickly identifies HtS, Fidei, and myself as townreads. These 3 players are now the Inner Circle of trusted townies. 3) Also in that same post, he suggests 3 people for the lynch, and Sulfurus is the first of those 3 names. If Grokken was scum, then if people later challenged him on why he wasn't voting against Sulfurus, he could always say "well, that wasn't an ordered list." But having the Godfather at the head of his suggested lynch targets is another small point in Grokken's favor. 4) One thing I hadn't liked about Grokken's Day 1 is that when thread sentiment turned against Moosy, Grokken flipped his read on Moosy from Green to Red. But upon re-reading, I can see that his Green read on Moosy wasn't just before thread sentiment turned against him, but ALSO was before the conversation between myself and Moosy that CAUSED thread sentiment to turn against him. If I don't clarify that what Moosy meant by "changing things up" was to vary his play, then that first comment might not have turned into anything. At the time Grokken was townreading Moosy, there wasn't really any reason not to (yet). Moosy didn't turn into garbage until after that. 5) During Night 2, Grokken tells us that Ghandi was his ONLY scum read during Day 2. That doesn't sound to me like anything a scum player would actually want to admit. WIFOM is in play here (he would say it BECAUSE it is nothing scum would ever say!) but again...it's his first Mafia-by-Forum game. I would expect his scum play to be a little more straightforward, rather than fancy. He doesn't want to "try something out" and later get pegged as the scapegoat for why his team lost. 6) Sulfurus really only made 1 post the entire game that represents him making an attempt to do anything worthwhile. In it, he says: "I noticed that HTS came to Grokk's defense against an accurate post on him even after calling Grokk out for blatantly reversing his read on Moosy just to fit thread sentiment. What's up with that?" That's it. That was his only post that actually had useful game content in it, and he is attacking HtS for defending Grokken, over behavior that Sulfurus indicates should indeed be seen as suspicious. HtS and Grokken are the only players Sulfurus actually attempted to push as lynch options. That looks quite good for Grokken, in my opinion. | ||
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But here are a few reasons to think silentwarrior is Town: 1) When he makes it to the thread, he just immediately falls in line with things others have said. But when scum sheep someone else's idea, I expect them to take what was said, and paraphrase. So that it at least sounds a little bit like an original thought. So it sounds a little bit like they are contributing something new. But some of silentwarrior's comments aren't paraphrasing. He's just repeating the same opinion, almost word for word. I would generally expect scum to be a little more careful than that. 2) His "EBWOP" list looks really solid to me, at this point. He was not interested in lynching anyone that wasn't worth considering. The only person I had any interest at all in lynching, that he didn't, was HIM. 3) His last post has this in it: "I still think scott and TJH are the scummiest right now, so if there are any BLUES, you should check them." What the hell is that? Looks to me like he forgot the setup rules. No mafia player could forget that there are Blues (or even forget which ones they are) and I don't know that a newbie scum player wants to draw attention to himself by pretending that he forgot the setup. ruXxar and Moosy couldn't remember anything about the setup during Newbie 11, but they were both town. I still just think newbie scum players are more likely to just try and look like they're playing as town, than start up goofy tricks and ruses. | ||
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1) Falsely accuses Grokken of "Town-prodding" in an instance where Grokken was just asking one player a question. 2) This: + Show Spoiler + What I didn't like about TJ was that he made absolutely no effort whatsoever to read (or even interact with) the only person in the game that he knew before the game started. If I were Town, and was in a game with a bunch of strangers + ONE person I knew quite well, then without a doubt my early focus would be on interacting with that person, to try and get a read on them, because I know things about their personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else on my team. TJ doesn't do this at all. Conversely, if I were scum in that situation, I might make a point of avoiding that person, because they know things about MY personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else in the Town. And I might steer clear of them (possibly without even realizing I'm doing it) to keep them from getting a read on me. 3) Early comments look mostly bad in hindsight. The first thing he wants to say is about HtS spamming. Then his first scumread is Grokken (who I think is unlikely to be Scum). Then his next scumread is Moosy (who I think is unlikely to be Scum). Then he accuses Fidei of saying something that "seems opposite to everything else he's written in this game." I didn't feel like it was opposite, and...Fidei is unlikely to be Scum. 4) As mentioned earlier, he oddly places Sulfurus at #2 on his suspect list, without having made mention of him previously. But makes no actual attempt to get Sulfurus lynched. 5) Says he intends to give the Town "essential information" later in Day 2, but fails to follow through. 6) During Night 2, says he will post the essential information during Day 3 instead, pre-assuming that he will survive the Night Phase, even though he has soft-claimed (or maybe more like medium-claimed) a blue role. 7) After the slip from #6 is pointed out, he explains that he doesn't expect to be night-killed by the mafia because some players are saying that they are suspicious of him. But if he's Town, then he doesn't know that the players most suspicious of him aren't themselves Mafia, in which case they cannot have any reasonable expectation of getting him lynched. Moreover, Night 2 was NOT the first time that he indicated he thinks of himself as being immune to being night-killed by the mafia. In his final post of Day 1, he talks at length about what his plan of action will be for Day 2. Again pre-assuming that he will survive the Night Phase, even though at THIS time, he was NOT being talked about as a suspicious player. If we later get confirmation that the setup has a Cop and no Vigilante, it will make TJ look all the worse. Because then his confidence stems not only from knowing that he won't be killed by mafia (since he's on the team) but also knowing that he won't be killed by the Vigilante (because he knows there isn't one). 8) Flips out when Moosy's vote on himself doesn't count, causing the Godfather to be lynched. When natural townie reaction would more likely be a simple desire to celebrate the positive result. 9) Also complains that the non-voters only received warnings instead of mod-kills, when the majority of the non-voters (if not all of them) are obviously going to be town players. Remember that the 4 players who didn't vote were: Moosy, scott, Ghandi, and WonnaPlay. If TJ is teamed with silentwarrior, then ALL of the non-voters are Town. If TJ is teamed with NHM/Ticktock, ALL of the non-voters are STILL Town. | ||
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n00bKing
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1) Nydus kicks off the game voting against Fidei, who was basically the only player to have made any attempt to do anything even remotely productive. We also know that Fidei ended up in the Inner Circle of trusted townies. 2) Nydus makes no more effort to interact with TJ than TJ made to interact with Nydus. This is suspicious for exactly the same reason. It was just MORE suspicious on TJ's part, because he was posting more. 3) Ticktock probably has the most posts of any player, that are not game-related. Rarely does he make a forcible attempt to derail discussion, but he repeatedly creates OPPORTUNITIES for discussion to be derailed. 4) Suggests Moosy as a cop check during Night 1, to keep the Cop away from his team. Says zippo about what the Vigilante should do, since he may know that there isn't a Vigilante to keep away from his team. 5) Says this about Ghandi, during Day 2: "saying that Grok is the scummiest player atm and that he has no other scum reads right now just continues to scream mafia to me." Again, I think a player saying that he has no other scum reads is Town-indicative. The town player may indeed have only one scum read. The scum player can scum read whoever he needs to, if it'll help him avoid the noose. 6) Lectures Ghandi after his lynch, creating excuses for why it was okay to have voted him out, instead of turning his attention toward helping the blue roles find the players who actually ARE scum. 7) Ticktock's reactions to Moosy's "ninja vote" are LUDICROUS. The fact that Moosy didn't actually ninja vote is irrelevant. What matters is that Ticktock goes berserk, and accuses Moosy of "setting up a last minute vote switch to GE" when Moosy's vote change (if it had happened) would have been completely meaningless to the lynch. Instead of Ghandi having 6 votes and TJ having 3, Ghandi would have 7 and TJ would have 2. Who cares? This is an absurd thing to try and scumread someone for. 8) Suggests TJ as a target for the Doctor on Night 2, which is scummy for multiple reasons, including (as Grokken pointed out) that Ticktock had been scumreading TJ pretty HARD during Night 1. 9) Suggests Grokken for a cop check on Night 2, despite the fact that (as Grokken also pointed out) Ticktock had been townreading Grokken for pretty much the whole way, up until then. 10) Says he won't be upset if the Vigilante shoots him tonight, which is cute if he knows there isn't one. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
1) In TJ's last post from Day 1, he says "I would caution against vig shooting or cop checking any of the lurkers this night because I don't think it will really help progress our scum leads much. A vig shot is better saved on a clearly scummy person (same logic as above) and cop check better on someone whos a bit more active." And boy does this make sense, if his teammates were Sulfurus and NydusHerMain, who were both lurking something fierce throughout Day 1. This could also be a subliminal attempt to keep people from lynching Sulfurus. If TJ tells people that the lurkers are bad targets for the Cop, and bad targets for the Vigilante, then...shouldn't they be poor choices for the lynch, too? 2) If NydusHerMain was the 3rd member of that scum team, then it can help explain why Sulfurus was not better defended from the noose. One of his teammates was legitimately afk and needed to be replaced. So then, during Night 1, this theory runs into a problem. Which is that after Ticktock comes into the game, he puts TJ "on blast" for the rest of the Night Phase. He makes two separate posts during the Night Phase that attack TJ for his scummy behavior. And this really does call a TJ/Ticktock team into question. But while I have kept saying that I would expect newbie scum players to keep things relatively simple, and not get fancy, Ticktock is not on the newbie list. And if Sulfurus/TJ/NHM was the team, then Ticktock has real motivation to get fancy. The Godfather was lynched on Day 1. Unorthodox maneuvers may be called for. I'll see if the other indications of a TJ/Ticktock team are stronger than the fact that Ticktock is all over TJ during Night 1. 3) Ticktock does not actually attack TJ until after I've strongly recommended TJ for a cop check. Since I was almost universally townread during Night 1, there is some chance that a Cop might actually go ahead and choose TJ as a target. If that happens, Ticktock is set up about as well as anyone can be, that is staring down a 9-1 deficit. It would be a LONG time before the townies seriously considered putting the noose on Ticktock. He's in a huge hole, but he has quite a bit of town cred from that read. 4) Although Ticktock is scumreading TJ during Night 1, he still ultimately suggests a cop check on Moosy, and not on TJ. This suggestion is made with adequate time for the Cop to go and change his action, if he is so inclined after seeing Ticktock's post. 5) With me going into so much detail about what I'd like the Cop to do, the scum team may have decided I was unlikely to BE the cop. The other player (besides Ticktock and myself) that was seriously scumreading TJ during Night 1 was Half the Sky. If the scum team ruled me out as a potential Cop, then the player who looks most likely (if they are the Cop) to target TJ during Night 1 is...Half the Sky. And what happened? She got roleblocked. 6) But the scum team still wouldn't be sure that there hadn't been a Cop check on TJ. So Ticktock makes himself the very first player to cast a vote on Day 2, and puts it on TJ. If someone is about to come forward and say "I'm the Cop, and I've got a red check on TJ" then Ticktock is already ahead of the curve. 7) But the Cop claim doesn't seem to be forthcoming. So now that it's the Day Phase (and there's actual lynching to be done), Ticktock becomes less and less interested in pursuing any sort of a case against TJ. His very next post after the vote against TJ is an attack on Ghandi. 8) After Ghandi responds, Ticktock goes so far as to tell Ghandi "You're scum." Flat out. He may not have any intention of allowing TJ to be lynched during this Phase, now that it seems clear there wasn't a red check on TJ. 9) As the day proceeds, it continues to become more and more obvious (from reading his filter) that TJ is not the lynch Ticktock wants, despite his vote being there. Ghandi is the lynch he wants. But he does mention that he is "fairly certain" TJ and Ghandi are the scum team. This could be so that once Ghandi flips town, Ticktock can say that his association case against TJ has fallen apart, and stop pursuing him. (And indeed, Ticktock has called for the Doctor to target TJ on Night 2!) 10) Ticktock says he is tempted to swing the hammer onto Ghandi, but doesn't do it. He does, however, finally move his vote off of TJ (and onto Scott), creating a tie, and giving someone else the opportunity to swing that hammer. After WonnaPlay does just that, Ticktock is now free to move his vote onto Ghandi, without having to take responsibility for being "the guy who killed Ghandi" once Ghandi flips Town. So...he does. 11) Ticktock's suggestions for Night actions involve the Cop checking either Grokken or Scott, and the Doctor possibly visiting TJ. Scumread on TJ? Forgotten. Townread on Grokken? Forgotten. Townlean on Scott? (Yes, this happened.) Forgotten. If TJ/Ticktock is the team, I can't really tell whether Ticktock ever actually planned to bus TJ. It looks more to me like he just took serious steps to make sure that IF TJHuggins went down on Day 2, he would come out of it smelling like a rose. His shift in what he posts might represent a legitimate shift in thought patterns. "I have to be ready and willing to bus TJ, if it looks like he might get caught." Followed by "Nope, on second thought, I can't afford to lose him. I'll never make it all the way by myself, so I might as well hitch myself to him and go all-in." The biggest obstacle in the Ticktock/TJ association case is larger than the biggest obstacle in the silentwarrior/TJ association case. But the ties are definitely stronger in the first one than the second one, too. Any of these 3 players are good targets for the Cop/Vigilante. And I'll reiterate that I absolutely can't say the same thing about Grokken. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 16 2015 22:45 Tictock wrote: Looks like I'll be doing a fair bit of defending D3 here, assuming of course that a Vigi who held there shot doesn't decide to shoot me off that wall of text. Of the three of you that I mentioned (yourself/silentwarrior/TJ) I would say you're a better Cop check than Vig shot (as you might be the most useful of the three, should you be Town). On July 16 2015 22:45 Tictock wrote:I assume if I flip green you just swap to pushing TJ/SW as the scum team. Which is why I wouldn't want to start with you. I would start with TJ, since he is the common thread for both teams. On July 16 2015 22:45 Tictock wrote:What happens if you find that TJ flips green? Just humor that world, if even for a moment. Then it's "back to the drawing board." Same as what I said in Newbie 11, regarding Sulfurus. I told everyone that if Sulfurus flipped Green, then I had to start over. (Fortunately, he flipped Red in that game, no problem.) If TJ flips Green in this game, I have to start over. Hopefully that would not be the case. But if it were, it still isn't the end of the world. Nailing the Godfather on Day 1 gave us quite a bit of room for mislynches, since we know the Mafia doesn't have access to any additional KP. Is it within the realm of *possibility* that TJ is Town, even though he is the common thread for both of my scum teams? Sure. But he was my top scum read on Day 2 (though I certainly understand why people settled on Ghandi instead), and he's still my top scum read on Night 2. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 16 2015 23:49 Tictock wrote: 1) I still think HtS has the best list post for suggestions for Night Actions. If you trust nobody else, please trust her. Then it's worth noting that HtS and I have a lot of the same suggestions. Her list of options for the Doctor matches mine exactly. She suggests 4 targets for the Cop, and 3 of those 4 are the same ones I suggested. She and I have crossover on silentwarrior, Ticktock, and TJ. We don't have the same ideas for the Vigilante, but it looks somewhat likely that there isn't one. On July 16 2015 23:49 Tictock wrote:Why would I as Scum bus my remaining scummate right off the bat? Why would I risk that move by moving my vote around so much EoD, and then nudging back my scum read on TJ? Like it's obvious that TJ is still one of the scummier players right now, so isn't my receding my read and even risking saying he might be a good medic save suicide as scum? Isn't it suicide as Town? If you're Town, you're making risky plays to try and protect a player whose allegiance you don't know. If you and TJ are scum, then your risky plays are at least intended to protect a player that you know is on your team. On July 16 2015 23:49 Tictock wrote:Unless you think I planned out my play for the entirety of the past cycle just to make this argument, I don't see how my actions this game can possible make sense from a scum perspective. Try to make sense of your actions from a Town perspective. Because I have a Town perspective, and your actions don't make sense. Explain your reaction to Moosy's ninja vote. Explain why you came full circle on TJ, and suggested him as a target for the Doctor. Explain why you came full circle on Grokken, after townreading him for so long. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 17 2015 04:38 Tictock wrote: If Moosy had in fact Ninja voted like that I would think it very suspect, but most of my reaction was due to the fact that he hadn't actually voted in the voteing thread. I even noted that in one of my posts before Onegu sorted it. That reminded me of a scum strat Onegu himself had suggested to me in my last game with him. So I freaked out a little. I'm not sure of what you are saying here. If he didn't vote in the voting thread, then how did he vote at all? Votes don't count unless they appear in the voting thread, right? Are you saying that a player could like...submit a vote to the Mod via PM, without posting it in the voting thread, and still have it count? Because I didn't think something like that was possible (But I'm a n00b and this is only my 2nd game here, so I'm not sure.) If something like that IS possible, and you thought that's what happened (because Moosy's vote showed up in Onegu's vote count, but it wasn't in the voting thread) then your reaction will make more sense, even though Moosy's vote did not impact the lynch. Because you wouldn't have been able to know that he hadn't submitted it earlier, when he thought it WOULD impact the lynch. Like, honestly, if players can submit votes directly to the Mods via PM, without using the voting thread, my suspicion of you will go down dramatically. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 17 2015 06:39 Fidei86 wrote: Finally on WonnaPlay (WIFOM alert) KSC was the only one scum reading him. Yeah okay, so it's a crappy reason, but nobody else has said it yet. Definitely a WIFOM alert. I also noticed that if the scum team is TJ/SW or TJ/Ticktock, then they could have killed Kelsier to try and frame WonnaPlay or Grokken, since those were his initial scumreads. But...meh. Didn't sound very compelling. Until I have reason to doubt it, I'll just assume that they killed Kelsier because he was one of the 4 who lynched the Godfather, was one of the two veterans from that group of 4, and was one of the two players from that group of 4 who was unlikely to be protected by the Doctor. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
If I get killed, don't forget to lynch TJ. Strong Townreads: Fidei, Half the Sky Medium Townreads: Grokken, Moosy Light Townread: Scott Light Scumreads: SilentWarrior, WonnaPlay Medium Scumread: Ticktock Strong Scumread: TJHuggins | ||
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n00bKing
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Who got roleblocked? | ||
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n00bKing
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I did not get roleblocked. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 17 2015 07:07 Half the Sky wrote: Cheers for helping out Ras <3 Why would you call her "Ras?" | ||
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n00bKing
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I believe SW has not posted since the Phase began. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 18 2015 07:08 Tictock wrote: Someone help me lynch SW or Scott... Hello Ticktock. I want to play a game. Let's imagine you're a 1-shot Daytime Vigilante. Your shot can only be used on Day 3, so you didn't fire on Days 1 or 2. Your shot needs to be fired within the next 30 minutes of when I'm posting this, let's say. Otherwise it is forfeit. In this scenario, would you be willing to shoot either SW or Scott, without them making another post? And if so, which one? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 18 2015 07:28 Tictock wrote: Yea, I'd shoot scott. Between the 2 of them SW has actually engaged in the thread a little. Scott has only dropped in to make a post or two then buggered off, there is zero evidence of his reads evolving based on the game, where as SW actually put some effort into his large post about Ghandi and had pinged him out before that case. Assuming the follow up question is why I am voting SW over scott... There is no follow up question. The correct answer to the game was "no." | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 18 2015 10:23 TJHuggins wrote: You guys are all terrible. I am the cop. I have a town check on MoosyDoosy and a mafia check on silentwarrior. it should have been obvious to everyone from the night that i am cop. It's been obvious to me ever since you refused to share your "essential information" by the end of Night 2, that your use of the phrase "essential information" meant you intended to FAKE-claim Cop. But you should have made your fake-claim at the end of Night 2, instead of waiting until Day 3. The only way holding off on your fake-claim is better is if you manage to kill the Cop during Night 2. Then you pretend that your "essential information" had nothing to do with a blue role (even though it virtually has to. Which is why I said you "medium claimed" a blue role more than "soft claimed" one.) In all other scenarios, you were better off making the fake-claim earlier than you made it. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 18 2015 12:28 Onegu wrote: Day 3 Vote Count TJHuggins(2): silentwarrior, Fidei86 silentwarrior(5): MoosyDoosy, Half the Sky,Ticktock, TJHuggins, Noobking Not Voting(3):,Grokken, WonnaPlay, scott31337 This vote count is wrong. I did not move my vote from TJHuggins to silentwarrior. You would have needed a forklift to get my vote off of TJHuggins. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 18 2015 14:09 Grokken wrote: I also want to point out that if we lynch TJH and he flips cop, you know for certain that I and SW are the last 2 mafia, and town wins. It's a win-win situation. Yeah, don't worry, you're fine. We're not lynching you, we're lynching TJ. And he's not flipping Cop, he's flipped Red. On page 33 I gave: 6 REASONS TO THINK GROKKEN IS TOWN and 9 REASONS TO THINK TJHUGGINS IS SCUM So having the two of you in a counterclaim situation couldn't be much simpler for me. But yes, like you said, even if the scum team actually WERE to be you and silentwarrior, this play from you would still be suicide. You would have had silentwarrior make the counterclaim against TJ, instead of you doing it. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 18 2015 11:18 Half the Sky wrote: Additionally TJH ninja voting would be justified if he had a red check. Plus scum are a man down already and a NK down already so it'd make no sense for him to trade himself in 1 for 1 if he were scum. It's better than trading himself off 1 for 0, which is what he appeared to be headed toward. If his fake claim gets even ONE mislynch before he goes down, instead of him just being the lynch today, that's at least a LITTLE improvement. And even if the real Cop counterclaims and we pick the right one (as we are going to) it at least outs the Cop for them, so that if the remaining Mafia member is the roleblocker, the Cop will be nullified from now on. I think it makes sense for TJ to go ahead and make this fake claim. And I think it's exactly what he had in mind, way back when he first made mention of his "essential information." | ||
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On July 18 2015 19:36 Fidei86 wrote:Okay, I'm now 100% convinced that SW is the final mafia. For me, I wouldn't say 100%. He would be my first guess, but I wouldn't bet the house on it. Ticktock and HtS seem to be going in different directions from us, so we might have some work to do to convince them. (They are also going in different directions from each other though, so at least we have a majority right now. lol) This is from Page 32, and is still most of the reason for why I think silentwarrior could be scum, and why I think TJ flipping Red makes it a bit more likely that silentwarrior is scum: + Show Spoiler + It was me that hypothesized that maybe silentwarrior didn't comment on Sulfurus because there just wasn't much in Sulf's filter to work with. But "not much in the filter to work with" didn't stop silentwarrior from voting against NHM. As silentwarrior mentioned, I hadn't moved off of NHM yet when he casts that vote. So if the tide turns against NHM and he gets lynched and flips green, SW can at least say that his responsibility for NHM's death is not as great as mine. If the scum team were to be Sulfurus/TJHuggins/silentwarrior, then SW's reason to be looking for some random place to toss his vote is fairly straightforward. TJ and Sulf had already voted against Moosy. So maybe SW would want to vote elsewhere, just to keep them from all following the same blueprint. Once the push on Sulfurus gets going, and we have a Sulf vs. Moosy race, which one can silentwarrior reasonably choose in that situation? Again, he doesn't really want to vote against Moosy, when both of his teammates are already there. But he doesn't really want to vote Sulfurus, and get the Godfather lynched on Day 1. So he sits tight and hopes the Moosy lynch will go through (all the more likely, if the Scum team was thinking that Moosy's self-vote actually counted). By the time I drop the hammer on Sulfurus, there are only 12 minutes left in the Day. And there were only 4 minutes left in the Day by the time the vote count is clarified by the Mods, making it absolutely clear that my vote on Sulfurus DID drop the hammer on him. Too late for the scum team to get Moosy back in the lead, even if silentwarrior was around (and not legitimately afk). This "association case" against TJ/silentwarrior is not spectacularly strong. But I do think SW choosing to vote against NHM is a point against him, based on what the explanation would be for him to never say anything about Sulfurus, and based on how I can reason out a motivation for him to vote there, if he's Scum. As for you setting the over/under for number of posts in the scum thread at 15...I think I'll take the over. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 18 2015 22:11 Grokken wrote: I have no idea if you're serious, but if you are, these are probably the most stacked teams ever. Heh, I don't think Foolishness would be eligible for a Newbie slot. | ||
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n00bKing
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n00bKing wrote: Hey SCOTT: Were you roleblocked last night? | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 19 2015 02:54 Tictock wrote: Conclusion: Fidei is very likely Mafia here. Meh. If Fidei were the last Mafia, I don't see him needing to say that he is "100%" about silentwarrior, and then start launching into post-game discussion. Why does he need to push so hard for silentwarrior, as opposed to letting the next lynch fall on WonnaPlay or Scott? He could have made his exact same points against silentwarrior without any of the "100%" talk. And based on my earlier comments about silentwarrior, he can expect that I would probably join in. Jumping from "I think SW is the last mafia" to "I'm 100% sure" and talking post-game will just draw added attention to himself if silentwarrior were to flip Green. Because his comments will have been so memorable. He'd be using WIFOM to try and ward off the extra attention, and doing it just to get a result that doesn't really benefit him that much (the lynch of silentwarrior, as opposed to any other mislynch). So I'm not really seeing it. Lynch Fidei before HtS, before Grokken, and before Moosy? Okay. Lynch Fidei before silentwarrior or WonnaPlay? Not really that interested. Like Moosy says, seeing what role TJ flips as is important. If he's the Goon, it probably doesn't matter who we would like Grokken to check. But if TJ is the roleblocker, and Night discussion points toward Grokken checking the Goon, then we might actually get a concession before Day 4 ever starts. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 19 2015 04:38 rsoultin wrote: Day 3 Vote Count TJHuggins(7): silentwarrior, Fidei86, Ticktock, Grokken, MoosyDoosy, Half the Sky, scott31337 silentwarrior(2): TJHuggins, Noobking, Not Voting(1):WonnaPlay Still no. | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 19 2015 06:53 Fidei86 wrote: EON2 hype people. Anyone else here to witness the flip? Here to witness the flip. Now stop spamming. lol | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 19 2015 03:39 n00bKing wrote: As for you setting the over/under for number of posts in the scum thread at 15...I think I'll take the over. I win! :D | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
But I certainly can't argue with how things turned out! Thanks for the save on Night 2, Half the Sky. Darn Mafia guys, trying to kill me...and after they already killed me on Night 1 of my last game, too! Shame on them! | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 19 2015 07:15 Fidei86 wrote: Did you minus all the posts from BlazingHand and Onegu/Tina? :-) 26 posts by actual Mafia dudes! | ||
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n00bKing
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On July 19 2015 07:24 Fidei86 wrote: I vote HTS MVP for town. Reasonable. Was a lot of help in getting Sulfurus lynched. And when she healed me on Night 2, I think it probably killed whatever motivation the scum team might have had left. On July 19 2015 07:24 Fidei86 wrote:Brb got to go gloat in the "why does town keep losing thread" lol, right. Just tell them to wait for one of the scum members to fly off the handle when his Mafia buddy gets lynched, and for the other one to get mod-killed. Easy! | ||
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