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On July 16 2015 08:09 MoosyDoosy wrote:
The most interesting thing I came across was Grokken and silentwarrior. silentwarrior lists Grokken as town lean while Grokken is starting to look worse and worse. I hate making associative cases but if n00bKing would look into this it would be great because he's decent at sniffing these out.
I do not have an association case to make against a hypothetical Grokken/silentwarrior team. One of them has 1 post that makes it seem like the other could be a scum teammate, and the other has 2 posts that make it seem like the other could be a scum teammate. It is very flimsy, not as strong as the association case against TJHuggins/silentwarrior that I posted on Page 32. And the TJ Huggins/silentwarrior association case is still not the strongest one.
MoosyDoosy wrote:
I'm going to read into Ticktock and TJHuggins some more
This is the strongest one.
You'll note that the TJHuggins/silentwarrior team and the TJHuggins/Ticktock team have a common thread...
By the way, not only am I unable to make a good association case against Grokken/silentwarrior, but I cannot make a good association case against Grokken/ANYONE. If Grokken is scum, he has done an excellent job at avoiding clear ties with his scum teammate, and has really only tripped himself up one time the entire game. That would be an outstanding performance, for someone who claims that this is his first time ever playing Mafia-by-forum.
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Time to spam the thread, Baby! Y'all are gonna have some reading to do.
I'll start with:
REASONS TO THINK GROKKEN IS TOWN
1) As has been mentioned, one of Grokken's first posts involves him attacking Sulfurus for contentless posts. He labels Sulf as "maybe slight scum lean." This is not much by itself, but every little bit counts.
2) In that same post, he quickly identifies HtS, Fidei, and myself as townreads. These 3 players are now the Inner Circle of trusted townies.
3) Also in that same post, he suggests 3 people for the lynch, and Sulfurus is the first of those 3 names. If Grokken was scum, then if people later challenged him on why he wasn't voting against Sulfurus, he could always say "well, that wasn't an ordered list." But having the Godfather at the head of his suggested lynch targets is another small point in Grokken's favor.
4) One thing I hadn't liked about Grokken's Day 1 is that when thread sentiment turned against Moosy, Grokken flipped his read on Moosy from Green to Red. But upon re-reading, I can see that his Green read on Moosy wasn't just before thread sentiment turned against him, but ALSO was before the conversation between myself and Moosy that CAUSED thread sentiment to turn against him. If I don't clarify that what Moosy meant by "changing things up" was to vary his play, then that first comment might not have turned into anything. At the time Grokken was townreading Moosy, there wasn't really any reason not to (yet). Moosy didn't turn into garbage until after that.
5) During Night 2, Grokken tells us that Ghandi was his ONLY scum read during Day 2. That doesn't sound to me like anything a scum player would actually want to admit. WIFOM is in play here (he would say it BECAUSE it is nothing scum would ever say!) but again...it's his first Mafia-by-Forum game. I would expect his scum play to be a little more straightforward, rather than fancy. He doesn't want to "try something out" and later get pegged as the scapegoat for why his team lost.
6) Sulfurus really only made 1 post the entire game that represents him making an attempt to do anything worthwhile. In it, he says: "I noticed that HTS came to Grokk's defense against an accurate post on him even after calling Grokk out for blatantly reversing his read on Moosy just to fit thread sentiment. What's up with that?" That's it. That was his only post that actually had useful game content in it, and he is attacking HtS for defending Grokken, over behavior that Sulfurus indicates should indeed be seen as suspicious. HtS and Grokken are the only players Sulfurus actually attempted to push as lynch options. That looks quite good for Grokken, in my opinion.
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I would say Grokken is a poor target for the Cop, and even worse target for the Vigilante.
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I already provided an association case for TJHuggins and silentwarrior, in which I included some reasons to think silentwarrior could be scum.
But here are a few reasons to think silentwarrior is Town:
1) When he makes it to the thread, he just immediately falls in line with things others have said. But when scum sheep someone else's idea, I expect them to take what was said, and paraphrase. So that it at least sounds a little bit like an original thought. So it sounds a little bit like they are contributing something new. But some of silentwarrior's comments aren't paraphrasing. He's just repeating the same opinion, almost word for word. I would generally expect scum to be a little more careful than that.
2) His "EBWOP" list looks really solid to me, at this point. He was not interested in lynching anyone that wasn't worth considering. The only person I had any interest at all in lynching, that he didn't, was HIM.
3) His last post has this in it: "I still think scott and TJH are the scummiest right now, so if there are any BLUES, you should check them." What the hell is that? Looks to me like he forgot the setup rules. No mafia player could forget that there are Blues (or even forget which ones they are) and I don't know that a newbie scum player wants to draw attention to himself by pretending that he forgot the setup. ruXxar and Moosy couldn't remember anything about the setup during Newbie 11, but they were both town. I still just think newbie scum players are more likely to just try and look like they're playing as town, than start up goofy tricks and ruses.
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REASONS TO THINK TJHUGGINS IS SCUM
1) Falsely accuses Grokken of "Town-prodding" in an instance where Grokken was just asking one player a question.
2) This: + Show Spoiler +What I didn't like about TJ was that he made absolutely no effort whatsoever to read (or even interact with) the only person in the game that he knew before the game started. If I were Town, and was in a game with a bunch of strangers + ONE person I knew quite well, then without a doubt my early focus would be on interacting with that person, to try and get a read on them, because I know things about their personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else on my team. TJ doesn't do this at all.
Conversely, if I were scum in that situation, I might make a point of avoiding that person, because they know things about MY personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else in the Town. And I might steer clear of them (possibly without even realizing I'm doing it) to keep them from getting a read on me.
3) Early comments look mostly bad in hindsight. The first thing he wants to say is about HtS spamming. Then his first scumread is Grokken (who I think is unlikely to be Scum). Then his next scumread is Moosy (who I think is unlikely to be Scum). Then he accuses Fidei of saying something that "seems opposite to everything else he's written in this game." I didn't feel like it was opposite, and...Fidei is unlikely to be Scum.
4) As mentioned earlier, he oddly places Sulfurus at #2 on his suspect list, without having made mention of him previously. But makes no actual attempt to get Sulfurus lynched.
5) Says he intends to give the Town "essential information" later in Day 2, but fails to follow through.
6) During Night 2, says he will post the essential information during Day 3 instead, pre-assuming that he will survive the Night Phase, even though he has soft-claimed (or maybe more like medium-claimed) a blue role.
7) After the slip from #6 is pointed out, he explains that he doesn't expect to be night-killed by the mafia because some players are saying that they are suspicious of him. But if he's Town, then he doesn't know that the players most suspicious of him aren't themselves Mafia, in which case they cannot have any reasonable expectation of getting him lynched. Moreover, Night 2 was NOT the first time that he indicated he thinks of himself as being immune to being night-killed by the mafia. In his final post of Day 1, he talks at length about what his plan of action will be for Day 2. Again pre-assuming that he will survive the Night Phase, even though at THIS time, he was NOT being talked about as a suspicious player. If we later get confirmation that the setup has a Cop and no Vigilante, it will make TJ look all the worse. Because then his confidence stems not only from knowing that he won't be killed by mafia (since he's on the team) but also knowing that he won't be killed by the Vigilante (because he knows there isn't one).
8) Flips out when Moosy's vote on himself doesn't count, causing the Godfather to be lynched. When natural townie reaction would more likely be a simple desire to celebrate the positive result.
9) Also complains that the non-voters only received warnings instead of mod-kills, when the majority of the non-voters (if not all of them) are obviously going to be town players. Remember that the 4 players who didn't vote were: Moosy, scott, Ghandi, and WonnaPlay. If TJ is teamed with silentwarrior, then ALL of the non-voters are Town. If TJ is teamed with NHM/Ticktock, ALL of the non-voters are STILL Town.
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REASONS TO THINK NYDUSHERMAIN/TICKTOCK IS SCUM
1) Nydus kicks off the game voting against Fidei, who was basically the only player to have made any attempt to do anything even remotely productive. We also know that Fidei ended up in the Inner Circle of trusted townies.
2) Nydus makes no more effort to interact with TJ than TJ made to interact with Nydus. This is suspicious for exactly the same reason. It was just MORE suspicious on TJ's part, because he was posting more.
3) Ticktock probably has the most posts of any player, that are not game-related. Rarely does he make a forcible attempt to derail discussion, but he repeatedly creates OPPORTUNITIES for discussion to be derailed.
4) Suggests Moosy as a cop check during Night 1, to keep the Cop away from his team. Says zippo about what the Vigilante should do, since he may know that there isn't a Vigilante to keep away from his team.
5) Says this about Ghandi, during Day 2: "saying that Grok is the scummiest player atm and that he has no other scum reads right now just continues to scream mafia to me." Again, I think a player saying that he has no other scum reads is Town-indicative. The town player may indeed have only one scum read. The scum player can scum read whoever he needs to, if it'll help him avoid the noose.
6) Lectures Ghandi after his lynch, creating excuses for why it was okay to have voted him out, instead of turning his attention toward helping the blue roles find the players who actually ARE scum.
7) Ticktock's reactions to Moosy's "ninja vote" are LUDICROUS. The fact that Moosy didn't actually ninja vote is irrelevant. What matters is that Ticktock goes berserk, and accuses Moosy of "setting up a last minute vote switch to GE" when Moosy's vote change (if it had happened) would have been completely meaningless to the lynch. Instead of Ghandi having 6 votes and TJ having 3, Ghandi would have 7 and TJ would have 2. Who cares? This is an absurd thing to try and scumread someone for.
8) Suggests TJ as a target for the Doctor on Night 2, which is scummy for multiple reasons, including (as Grokken pointed out) that Ticktock had been scumreading TJ pretty HARD during Night 1.
9) Suggests Grokken for a cop check on Night 2, despite the fact that (as Grokken also pointed out) Ticktock had been townreading Grokken for pretty much the whole way, up until then.
10) Says he won't be upset if the Vigilante shoots him tonight, which is cute if he knows there isn't one.
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REASONS TO THINK TJHUGGINS AND TICKTOCK ARE BOTH SCUM
1) In TJ's last post from Day 1, he says "I would caution against vig shooting or cop checking any of the lurkers this night because I don't think it will really help progress our scum leads much. A vig shot is better saved on a clearly scummy person (same logic as above) and cop check better on someone whos a bit more active." And boy does this make sense, if his teammates were Sulfurus and NydusHerMain, who were both lurking something fierce throughout Day 1. This could also be a subliminal attempt to keep people from lynching Sulfurus. If TJ tells people that the lurkers are bad targets for the Cop, and bad targets for the Vigilante, then...shouldn't they be poor choices for the lynch, too?
2) If NydusHerMain was the 3rd member of that scum team, then it can help explain why Sulfurus was not better defended from the noose. One of his teammates was legitimately afk and needed to be replaced.
So then, during Night 1, this theory runs into a problem. Which is that after Ticktock comes into the game, he puts TJ "on blast" for the rest of the Night Phase. He makes two separate posts during the Night Phase that attack TJ for his scummy behavior. And this really does call a TJ/Ticktock team into question. But while I have kept saying that I would expect newbie scum players to keep things relatively simple, and not get fancy, Ticktock is not on the newbie list. And if Sulfurus/TJ/NHM was the team, then Ticktock has real motivation to get fancy. The Godfather was lynched on Day 1. Unorthodox maneuvers may be called for. I'll see if the other indications of a TJ/Ticktock team are stronger than the fact that Ticktock is all over TJ during Night 1.
3) Ticktock does not actually attack TJ until after I've strongly recommended TJ for a cop check. Since I was almost universally townread during Night 1, there is some chance that a Cop might actually go ahead and choose TJ as a target. If that happens, Ticktock is set up about as well as anyone can be, that is staring down a 9-1 deficit. It would be a LONG time before the townies seriously considered putting the noose on Ticktock. He's in a huge hole, but he has quite a bit of town cred from that read.
4) Although Ticktock is scumreading TJ during Night 1, he still ultimately suggests a cop check on Moosy, and not on TJ. This suggestion is made with adequate time for the Cop to go and change his action, if he is so inclined after seeing Ticktock's post.
5) With me going into so much detail about what I'd like the Cop to do, the scum team may have decided I was unlikely to BE the cop. The other player (besides Ticktock and myself) that was seriously scumreading TJ during Night 1 was Half the Sky. If the scum team ruled me out as a potential Cop, then the player who looks most likely (if they are the Cop) to target TJ during Night 1 is...Half the Sky. And what happened? She got roleblocked.
6) But the scum team still wouldn't be sure that there hadn't been a Cop check on TJ. So Ticktock makes himself the very first player to cast a vote on Day 2, and puts it on TJ. If someone is about to come forward and say "I'm the Cop, and I've got a red check on TJ" then Ticktock is already ahead of the curve.
7) But the Cop claim doesn't seem to be forthcoming. So now that it's the Day Phase (and there's actual lynching to be done), Ticktock becomes less and less interested in pursuing any sort of a case against TJ. His very next post after the vote against TJ is an attack on Ghandi.
8) After Ghandi responds, Ticktock goes so far as to tell Ghandi "You're scum." Flat out. He may not have any intention of allowing TJ to be lynched during this Phase, now that it seems clear there wasn't a red check on TJ.
9) As the day proceeds, it continues to become more and more obvious (from reading his filter) that TJ is not the lynch Ticktock wants, despite his vote being there. Ghandi is the lynch he wants. But he does mention that he is "fairly certain" TJ and Ghandi are the scum team. This could be so that once Ghandi flips town, Ticktock can say that his association case against TJ has fallen apart, and stop pursuing him. (And indeed, Ticktock has called for the Doctor to target TJ on Night 2!)
10) Ticktock says he is tempted to swing the hammer onto Ghandi, but doesn't do it. He does, however, finally move his vote off of TJ (and onto Scott), creating a tie, and giving someone else the opportunity to swing that hammer. After WonnaPlay does just that, Ticktock is now free to move his vote onto Ghandi, without having to take responsibility for being "the guy who killed Ghandi" once Ghandi flips Town. So...he does.
11) Ticktock's suggestions for Night actions involve the Cop checking either Grokken or Scott, and the Doctor possibly visiting TJ. Scumread on TJ? Forgotten. Townread on Grokken? Forgotten. Townlean on Scott? (Yes, this happened.) Forgotten.
If TJ/Ticktock is the team, I can't really tell whether Ticktock ever actually planned to bus TJ. It looks more to me like he just took serious steps to make sure that IF TJHuggins went down on Day 2, he would come out of it smelling like a rose. His shift in what he posts might represent a legitimate shift in thought patterns. "I have to be ready and willing to bus TJ, if it looks like he might get caught." Followed by "Nope, on second thought, I can't afford to lose him. I'll never make it all the way by myself, so I might as well hitch myself to him and go all-in."
The biggest obstacle in the Ticktock/TJ association case is larger than the biggest obstacle in the silentwarrior/TJ association case. But the ties are definitely stronger in the first one than the second one, too. Any of these 3 players are good targets for the Cop/Vigilante. And I'll reiterate that I absolutely can't say the same thing about Grokken.
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On July 16 2015 22:45 Tictock wrote:
Looks like I'll be doing a fair bit of defending D3 here, assuming of course that a Vigi who held there shot doesn't decide to shoot me off that wall of text.
Of the three of you that I mentioned (yourself/silentwarrior/TJ) I would say you're a better Cop check than Vig shot (as you might be the most useful of the three, should you be Town).
On July 16 2015 22:45 Tictock wrote:I assume if I flip green you just swap to pushing TJ/SW as the scum team.
Which is why I wouldn't want to start with you. I would start with TJ, since he is the common thread for both teams.
On July 16 2015 22:45 Tictock wrote:What happens if you find that TJ flips green? Just humor that world, if even for a moment.
Then it's "back to the drawing board." Same as what I said in Newbie 11, regarding Sulfurus. I told everyone that if Sulfurus flipped Green, then I had to start over. (Fortunately, he flipped Red in that game, no problem.) If TJ flips Green in this game, I have to start over. Hopefully that would not be the case. But if it were, it still isn't the end of the world. Nailing the Godfather on Day 1 gave us quite a bit of room for mislynches, since we know the Mafia doesn't have access to any additional KP.
Is it within the realm of *possibility* that TJ is Town, even though he is the common thread for both of my scum teams? Sure. But he was my top scum read on Day 2 (though I certainly understand why people settled on Ghandi instead), and he's still my top scum read on Night 2.
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On July 16 2015 23:49 Tictock wrote:1) I still think HtS has the best list post for suggestions for Night Actions. If you trust nobody else, please trust her. Show nested quote +Nightaction RecommendationsDetective: 1) Grokken, 2) SW, 3) Tictock, 4) TJHiggins Caveat: I would NOT check Scott if you think there's a vig in this setup - he should be getting shot, so consider any of Grokken, Tictock, SW or if you are unsure of WP, then him, but I am thinking WP might be green here. A check on Scott should have been done d1 and if you haven't done it now you may want to exercise caution if the vig held his shot, which could happen in a newbie game. Vigilante: Scott, Scott, Scott. Vig a scummy lurker who is least likely to help town (if he's town) By far, this person would be Scott. Shoot Scott. No, you should have done that yesterday  Medic: I would say any of the trio of Fidei, n00bking, or myself. Use your judgement.
Then it's worth noting that HtS and I have a lot of the same suggestions. Her list of options for the Doctor matches mine exactly.
She suggests 4 targets for the Cop, and 3 of those 4 are the same ones I suggested. She and I have crossover on silentwarrior, Ticktock, and TJ.
We don't have the same ideas for the Vigilante, but it looks somewhat likely that there isn't one.
On July 16 2015 23:49 Tictock wrote:Why would I as Scum bus my remaining scummate right off the bat? Why would I risk that move by moving my vote around so much EoD, and then nudging back my scum read on TJ? Like it's obvious that TJ is still one of the scummier players right now, so isn't my receding my read and even risking saying he might be a good medic save suicide as scum?
Isn't it suicide as Town? If you're Town, you're making risky plays to try and protect a player whose allegiance you don't know. If you and TJ are scum, then your risky plays are at least intended to protect a player that you know is on your team.
On July 16 2015 23:49 Tictock wrote:Unless you think I planned out my play for the entirety of the past cycle just to make this argument, I don't see how my actions this game can possible make sense from a scum perspective.
Try to make sense of your actions from a Town perspective. Because I have a Town perspective, and your actions don't make sense. Explain your reaction to Moosy's ninja vote. Explain why you came full circle on TJ, and suggested him as a target for the Doctor. Explain why you came full circle on Grokken, after townreading him for so long.
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On July 17 2015 04:38 Tictock wrote:
If Moosy had in fact Ninja voted like that I would think it very suspect, but most of my reaction was due to the fact that he hadn't actually voted in the voteing thread. I even noted that in one of my posts before Onegu sorted it. That reminded me of a scum strat Onegu himself had suggested to me in my last game with him. So I freaked out a little.
I'm not sure of what you are saying here. If he didn't vote in the voting thread, then how did he vote at all? Votes don't count unless they appear in the voting thread, right? Are you saying that a player could like...submit a vote to the Mod via PM, without posting it in the voting thread, and still have it count? Because I didn't think something like that was possible (But I'm a n00b and this is only my 2nd game here, so I'm not sure.)
If something like that IS possible, and you thought that's what happened (because Moosy's vote showed up in Onegu's vote count, but it wasn't in the voting thread) then your reaction will make more sense, even though Moosy's vote did not impact the lynch. Because you wouldn't have been able to know that he hadn't submitted it earlier, when he thought it WOULD impact the lynch.
Like, honestly, if players can submit votes directly to the Mods via PM, without using the voting thread, my suspicion of you will go down dramatically.
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On July 17 2015 06:39 Fidei86 wrote:
Finally on WonnaPlay (WIFOM alert) KSC was the only one scum reading him.
Yeah okay, so it's a crappy reason, but nobody else has said it yet.
Definitely a WIFOM alert. I also noticed that if the scum team is TJ/SW or TJ/Ticktock, then they could have killed Kelsier to try and frame WonnaPlay or Grokken, since those were his initial scumreads. But...meh. Didn't sound very compelling. Until I have reason to doubt it, I'll just assume that they killed Kelsier because he was one of the 4 who lynched the Godfather, was one of the two veterans from that group of 4, and was one of the two players from that group of 4 who was unlikely to be protected by the Doctor.
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After seeing these posts from WP and Scott, I guess I would say that Scott comes away looking a little better to me, and WonnaPlay comes away looking a little worse. Not sure if WonnaPlay looks worse than SilentWarrior yet. Scott still doesn't look as good as Grokken.
If I get killed, don't forget to lynch TJ.
Strong Townreads: Fidei, Half the Sky
Medium Townreads: Grokken, Moosy
Light Townread: Scott
Light Scumreads: SilentWarrior, WonnaPlay
Medium Scumread: Ticktock
Strong Scumread: TJHuggins
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##Vote: TJHuggins
Who got roleblocked?
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On July 17 2015 07:08 Fidei86 wrote:I did not get roleblocked.
I did not get roleblocked.
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On July 17 2015 07:07 Half the Sky wrote:
Cheers for helping out Ras <3
Why would you call her "Ras?"
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These 3 players have still not yet denied the roleblock: TJ, Scott, silentwarrior
I believe SW has not posted since the Phase began.
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On July 18 2015 07:08 Tictock wrote:
Someone help me lynch SW or Scott...
Hello Ticktock. I want to play a game.
Let's imagine you're a 1-shot Daytime Vigilante. Your shot can only be used on Day 3, so you didn't fire on Days 1 or 2. Your shot needs to be fired within the next 30 minutes of when I'm posting this, let's say. Otherwise it is forfeit.
In this scenario, would you be willing to shoot either SW or Scott, without them making another post? And if so, which one?
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On July 18 2015 07:28 Tictock wrote:
Yea, I'd shoot scott.
Between the 2 of them SW has actually engaged in the thread a little. Scott has only dropped in to make a post or two then buggered off, there is zero evidence of his reads evolving based on the game, where as SW actually put some effort into his large post about Ghandi and had pinged him out before that case.
Assuming the follow up question is why I am voting SW over scott...
There is no follow up question. The correct answer to the game was "no."
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On July 18 2015 10:23 TJHuggins wrote:
You guys are all terrible. I am the cop. I have a town check on MoosyDoosy and a mafia check on silentwarrior. it should have been obvious to everyone from the night that i am cop.
It's been obvious to me ever since you refused to share your "essential information" by the end of Night 2, that your use of the phrase "essential information" meant you intended to FAKE-claim Cop. But you should have made your fake-claim at the end of Night 2, instead of waiting until Day 3. The only way holding off on your fake-claim is better is if you manage to kill the Cop during Night 2. Then you pretend that your "essential information" had nothing to do with a blue role (even though it virtually has to. Which is why I said you "medium claimed" a blue role more than "soft claimed" one.) In all other scenarios, you were better off making the fake-claim earlier than you made it.
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EPT
