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On July 13 2015 23:36 Half the Sky wrote:Fidei, on TJH - (going to spoiler quotes for readability) + Show Spoiler [initial read] +On July 12 2015 01:49 TJHuggins wrote:My initial reads so far is that i am town leaning on Fidei. I like the things he said in relation to spamming, and I think that him relating the perspective to a previous game where he was town feels like he's looking at the game from the perspective of a town. When he responded to HTS regarding talking about anti-spam being easy, he seems genuine. Or maybe it's just because I like his writing. No clue. My initial scum read is Grokken. It's nothing all that strong but I'm getting a wierd feeling about the things he's posted. To me it feels like he is trying to find ways to participate and seem town by chiming in now and again but really has no clue what to write about. Show nested quote +On July 11 2015 09:36 Grokken wrote:On July 11 2015 09:32 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
My blood sense is telling me to lynch everyone who knows what theyre doing We should listen to this guy, he seems to know what he is doing. Show nested quote +On July 11 2015 13:27 Grokken wrote:On July 11 2015 10:44 NydusHerMain wrote:
Hi, back home. You guys are fucking boring me.
##Vote: Fidei
I don't like the way this guy posts early Can you elaborate on this? What in particular is it that you don't like? I think that one sentence posts that appear to contribute to the game and don't really offer anything just kind of irk me the wrong way. I guess it's worth noting he did write that thing about Dota as well which was also one sentence but that's neither here nor there when it comes to the game I think. When I went back and read the post about him showing off his dota stats that actually reads to me a bit more towny now that I think about it, so not really sure. just an initial read. This post, there's an agenda in the sense that this read lacks context. First quote was part of a joke between him and Ghandi, and nothing should be made of it and TJH tried to. Second quote, there was reason to question NHM and that question isn't for naught. Overall he's making something out of nothing. I also feel he did the same thing when he tried to pin Fidei for the wording on MD earlier. + Show Spoiler [followup - "town prodding"] +On July 12 2015 03:10 TJHuggins wrote:
I agree that it was grokken's town prodding question that got me suspicious of him in the first place. Then right after he says "this posts doesn't really offer anything" he then says it's a "town prodding question" (which noob called him out for anyways) so then why did he say before that it doesn't really offer anything? The wording association between those two quotes is really awkward. + Show Spoiler [comment on Sulfurus] +On July 13 2015 07:14 TJHuggins wrote:
I so strongly felt that MD is the most obvious mafia there could possible be... I was going to be so mad if Sulfuras flipped town. Now I'm not so sure since sulfuras was voting on MD. I need to reread Sulfuras posts to see why he was voting on MD. Now TJH already had Sulfurus as 2 on his list of scummies so why would he need to reread it - additionally there was nothing Sulfur even said on MD which was the biggest issue I had. + Show Spoiler [Kelsier scumread] +On July 12 2015 23:16 TJHuggins wrote:Kelsier, I'm wondering if you would care to explain what factors weighed in on your decision here to vote for Wonnaplay as opposed to Grokken when from your previous post it appears you considered them equally scummy for the same reason? On July 12 2015 23:18 TJHuggins wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2015 22:43 WonnaPlay wrote:
"Sheep me, I'm good at this game" or "I act as scum and see if anyone bites, then I attack them" - Onegu Card?
So basically Kelsier is trying to get newer players to attack him, because he is sowing nonsense. To see if other people just blatantly follow those new players, which means that those followers or "sheep" are probably mafia players looking to get an easy kill?
If this is what he's doing, then I think that his posts make more sense indeed, however I think it's provoking the wrong reactions in a newbie game.
I think it's more like: Act like a fool and get town read for it. This one is pretty simple - he appears scumread Kelsier and then he drops that read altogether in his lynch list. Or at least it's not clear why he dropped him or where he stands on him now. TLDR - there's a bit of awkward progression and grasping for straws with the scumreads he's putting in. Also his reaction post-lynch was a bit more subdued and I'm ignoring the issues he's had with the mods, I'm more specifically talking about the "mod error I'll take it" post.
Most of this makes me say "meh" but there aren't any cases being presented on any other players (yet) that I find more compelling. So it just goes to show that there isn't POWERFUL evidence against anyone right now. (Which is probably normal, on Night 1.)
What I didn't like about TJ was that he made absolutely no effort whatsoever to read (or even interact with) the only person in the game that he knew before the game started. If I were Town, and was in a game with a bunch of strangers + ONE person I knew quite well, then without a doubt my early focus would be on interacting with that person, to try and get a read on them, because I know things about their personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else on my team. TJ doesn't do this at all.
Conversely, if I were scum in that situation, I might make a point of avoiding that person, because they know things about MY personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else in the Town. And I might steer clear of them (possibly without even realizing I'm doing it) to keep them from getting a read on me.
From reading his filter, it's obvious which route TJ went on this issue. So if I'm killed tonight, I think you guys should make a point of questioning TJ on this. And if he has what seems to be a perfectly reasonable explanation for that behavior, then great! However, if all he can give you is some line about "I knew NHM was afk for real-life reasons, so I didn't bother to try and talk to him, because I knew it would be pointless" then...NOT IMPRESSED.
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On July 14 2015 05:00 Tictock wrote:
I'm torn about TJ's EoD reaction. On the one hand I dont think scum would post like that In game over in their QT, but on the other hand I don't see town getting so worked up over that host mistake when it meant we lynched scum. The mistake had been discussed a fair bit as well (that MD cannot vote for himself) so it should not have been a suprise, yet he seemed genuinely upset that MD's vote on himself was not counted.
I experienced this same thought process after the lynch. I definitely thought that a mafia player would be more likely to complain in the scum thread, instead of in the main thread. But I had a hard time getting past the notion that a town player would not be likely to complain AT ALL.
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On July 14 2015 20:36 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2015 05:37 n00bKing wrote:On July 11 2015 21:15 Half the Sky wrote:
noob why the vote on NHM? Can't tell whether your vote is a joke vote or not, the others I can. If the vote were a joke, I'm not sure what about it is supposed to be funny. Like...what's the joke? And my joke votes wouldn't go in the voting thread, and that one is in the voting thread. If you want to see a fake vote, you can look at the one on me from Sulfurus. He wastes space with a fakecheck and a fakevote, and then wastes more space by backreferencing them. That's all you get, from his first two posts. His third (and thus far, final) post is him essentially telling Moosy to "do stuff" without actually doing stuff himself. We get roughly the same amount of value from Kelsier's posts, in which he tells people to "start the game" without actually doing anything that would get the game going. If either of Kelsier/Sulfurus are town, they've already got a headstart on being useless town. Okay, so why the vote on NHM? Two reasons. 1) At the time that NHM votes, there is only ONE player who has really expressed any interest in progressing the game. Fidei86. He was the only one (to that point) who had made a legitimate, "let's start thinking about the actual game itself" type of post. And that is who NHM chooses to vote against: the one player who showed an indication that they might be taking the game seriously. 2) The other reason should not be revealed yet. @n00bking Did you ever post your response to your point at paragraph 2? If you did, could you link/reference me? If you didn't, can you say now?
I did, and it was this:
"What I didn't like about TJ was that he made absolutely no effort whatsoever to read (or even interact with) the only person in the game that he knew before the game started. If I were Town, and was in a game with a bunch of strangers + ONE person I knew quite well, then without a doubt my early focus would be on interacting with that person, to try and get a read on them, because I know things about their personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else on my team. TJ doesn't do this at all.
Conversely, if I were scum in that situation, I might make a point of avoiding that person, because they know things about MY personality and mannerisms that may not be known by anyone else in the Town. And I might steer clear of them (possibly without even realizing I'm doing it) to keep them from getting a read on me.
From reading his filter, it's obvious which route TJ went on this issue. So if I'm killed tonight, I think you guys should make a point of questioning TJ on this. And if he has what seems to be a perfectly reasonable explanation for that behavior, then great! However, if all he can give you is some line about 'I knew NHM was afk for real-life reasons, so I didn't bother to try and talk to him, because I knew it would be pointless' then...NOT IMPRESSED."
That was bothering me throughout the entirety of Day 1. But I didn't want to bring it up, so I could watch and see if things changed, without TJ knowing what I was watching for. Things never changed, and once NHM replaced out, I didn't think there was any reason to keep it under wraps anymore.
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[B]
SW I have one reservation on him. There might be some distancing going on. I checked his filter again. There wasn't a weigh in on MD although the only thing SW said d1 was that he'd rather NHM over MD get lynched. However, look at his filter - first 5 posts on first page of his filter were before the lynch. His two posts on voting NHM were after my Sulfurus tag, and he makes zero mention one way or other on Sulfurus. Furthermore looking at votes, scum do and can hide on as solo votes, and a bit more apparent in newbie games (veterans are a bit more careful) so seeing SW solo voting nhm might be something to think about.
If he posted his vote/observation on NHM before my tag or if he'd taken any stance on Sulfurus I'd have less reason to suspect him, but him not appearing to take a stance at all on Sulfurus is a red flag. (His last post prior to EoD was 56m prior to lynch, and returned 1h after lynch, first stance on Sulfur was 1h25m after lynch.)
I don't think it's that big of a red flag. Sulfurus offered very little to take a stance on. I could see a new player looking at Sulfurus' filter and thinking "there is nothing here to work with."
Even so, I will still scumlean SilentWarrior a little bit. When there are 2 scum left to find, I don't want to have a suspect list that is only two players. So I'll make some room for SilentWarrior. 
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On July 14 2015 07:11 Half the Sky wrote:
Also I have been roleblocked. I just received note of this.
Well...then if the scum team knows there is a Vigilante in the setup, you can probably expect to be roleblocked again on Night 2 as well. Because they will be worried that you are yourself the Vigilante. In reality, the Vigilante may just have not fired yet, but they probably won't take the chance, and would roleblock you again. If anyone besides you gets RB'd on Night 2, then it's probably a Cop setup instead.
On July 14 2015 07:11 Half the Sky wrote: This means a medic dodge is possible and the prot role is a medic. In randomised open setups, if there is roleblockable veteran in the setup, usually the RB and NK actions are stacked on the target to avoid chancing hitting the veteran. The fact that the nightactions were on separate targets, indicates that the prot role is likely to be a medic.
Yeah, I strongly agree with this. I think there is a Doctor in the setup, and that Kelsier was killed because the scum team was worried that you or I would be healed. I think this theory is much better than ones where the scum team suspected Kelsier of being a blue role, or were just generally afraid of him.
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On July 14 2015 09:29 GhandiEAGLE wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2015 09:24 TJHuggins wrote:
I am dealing with someone that is taking priority in real life right now so I do not have time to write out a big post. I will give the essential information that I can provide to town tomorrow. probably.
By essential information is that a blue claim? Or just something your saying.
I don't know, but I wanna find out!
##Vote: TJHuggins
Would love to see some more votes on TJ, just to push him into carrying through with posting his "essential information."
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On July 14 2015 16:27 Fidei86 wrote:
Strong Town-lean:
N00b - Again, I don't see any reason for n00b to start pinging out a scum buddy this early, particularly not where the vote circumstances were so close. Unless the scum team includes Moosy, I don't see a world in which n00b is Mafia.
Won't worry much about defending myself, since I'm under no real pressure anyway, but I'll just briefly mention that even if Moosy were scum, it still doesn't create a world in which I can be Mafia, unless Moosy is the roleblocker.
If Moosy ever flipped Goon, I don't think it makes me look worse at all. It would mean I saved the Goon on my team, in order to instead ditch...the Godfather? That's a push if there's no Cop in the setup, and a disaster if there is a Cop in the setup.
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Alright, that's all for now. I should be back on later tonight, to take a giant poop on GhandiEAGLE. In the meantime, I will just reiterate that I would encourage votes on TJHuggins.
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Funny thought: If the scum team was originally Sulfurus/Scott/NHM, then the scum QT thread probably had about 9 posts in it, when Ticktock replaced in. lol
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I have very little reservation about lynching GhandiEAGLE in this phase. What little reservation I do have, would be that he is "too scummy to actually be scum." He doesn't just contradict himself from one phase to the next. And he doesn't even just contradict himself from one POST to the next. Here is an example (Page 21) where he contradicted himself INSIDE a single post. He starts off with:
On July 14 2015 08:09 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
I think Moosy is either playing a really abysmal town, or is scum. I'm still not sold enough to vote (I realize I say that a lot), but honestly constantly deflecting suspicion with sarcasm. Despite that sarcasm, he doesn't do shit for the town.
But then, at the end of his wall of text, he says:
On July 14 2015 08:09 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
I need meaningful contribution from Moosey or I'm not likely moving off of my vote without heavy evidence on someone else.
##Vote: MoosyDoosy
Not sold enough to vote against him. But then he votes against him. And says he won't move his vote off of him without "heavy evidence" on someone else.
Despite this, just a few posts later, he says:
On July 14 2015 08:12 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
Filler and waffle is over, I've started making legit posts again.
Waffle is over, huh? "I'm still not sold enough to vote." *Votes* How are you going to tell us that you're all done waffling, when you can't keep from changing your position between the start of a post and the end of that same post?
Also "too scummy to be scum" is his read on HtS, from Page 22. He says "Untouchable right now. No fun there :<" Which reads kinda like "I sure would like to see HtS lynched, but I know I can't make that happen." No mafia member could make this post without realizing how terrible it sounds, right?
His read on Scott probably isn't "too scummy to be scum" but his certainty that a player who HASN'T PLAYED is town might be what people sometimes call "TMI." At the time of Ghandi's reads post, there wasn't much incentive for him to try and get Scott lynched. It's not like Scott is going to hurt the scum team, with the amount of "work" he had done up to that point. So it's an easy opportunity to go ahead and townread a town player, since that player isn't one you really need to get rid of anyway.
Ghandi's post on Page 25, where he moves his vote to Grokken, says that one of the reasons he's scumreading Grokken is that he left his vote on Moosy during Day 1, in the Moosy vs. Sulfurus race. But Ghandi was himself voting against Moosy on Day TWO, so...?
Ghandi's "neutral" read on me is particularly damning. He says that he doesn't like my filter, but as HtS pointed out, if he wants to go against thread sentiment, he should probably explain his reasoning (and since he's not on the Newbie list, he should possibly know better).
Even if it was true that he disliked my filter (and he was able to explain why), it still doesn't make sense to say that my bad filter and my participation in Sulfurus' lynch "cancel each other out." It was MY vote that put the Godfather in a casket. You could feel free to say that Half the Sky's arguments against Sulfurus convinced more people than mine did, but it was still my vote that ultimately killed him. That's heavily town-indicative, and it would take a REALLY scummy filter to "cancel it out" and leave me as neutral. And this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/488742-newbie-student-mafia-xii?page=13#255) was probably SOME sort of factor, in getting us a Red flip on Day 1.
So finding a Town justification for null-reading me looks pretty tough, I think. But if I try to think of a Scum justification for null-reading me, it's a little easier. If the scum team does indeed know that there is a Doctor in the game, then they will probably continue to be uncomfortable with the idea of attacking me or HtS, just as they appeared to be uncomfortable during Night 1 (and killed Kelsier instead, even though he was not being town-read AS strongly as HtS and myself). If they know that trying to Night-kill me will always be a crapshoot (so long as the Doctor is still alive) then they have to try to get me lynched, or endgame me. But to try to endgame me, they have to endgame HtS too, because she's not getting lynched ever (based on how thread sentiment is crediting her with being the largest reason Sulfurus was lynched). And yes, they could endgame us both at once (2 against 2) but you would HATE to have to already pick 2 players to let survive to the finish, when it's this early in the game.
So maybe the plan was to endgame HtS + someone else. Leave open the possibility of getting me mislynched later, and then night-kill Kelsier and fidei. Ghandi is townreading fidei much more strongly than he's townreading me. Which doesn't make any sense to me at all, unless the plan is to night-kill fidei, and see whether the town will ever warm up to the idea of mislynching me.
Ghandi is probably scum, even though he's "too scummy to actually be scum."
Would still like to see TJ take the vote lead, and get the "essential information" he teased us with. Anyone who fails to deliver on a promise like that deserves the noose.
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On July 16 2015 00:25 scott31337 wrote:
##Vote Tjhuggins
Excellent. And now...we wait. *rubs hands together*
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On July 16 2015 02:30 Tictock wrote:
Pretty sad that there has been such little posting since I went to bed.
You don't have to like it, but if you think Ghandi/TJ is the likely scum team, then you can't really be too surprised that the thread died. It would mean that all 9 of the Town votes had been stacked up on scum. Ghandi makes some effort to make another player or two look bad (so that maybe they will emerge as a lynch candidate in the place of himself and TJ) but every time he says something, people tell him it just makes him look worse, and not better. So not too shocking that he went silent for a while. TJ might be so butthurt about Moosy's self-vote not counting that he can't even be bothered to defend himself at all.
On July 16 2015 02:30 Tictock wrote:Also TJ has effectively disappeared from the game...
So he's got suspicious behavior during Day 1, followed by low activity and unfulfilled promises on Day 2? That sounds like someone I'd be excited to lynch.
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@Ghandi:
1) If possible, please elaborate on what made you so confident in Scott being Town.
2) If possible, please explain why you said you weren't sold enough yet to vote against Moosy, and then voted against him (in the same post).
3) If possible, please explain what you dislike so much about my filter, which causes you to rank me as a neutral read, even though I posted the vote that buried Sulfurus.
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On July 16 2015 05:01 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
1) What made me confident that Scott was town is because he was an experienced mafia player (supposedly; Onegu kind of ballsed up the list). To me, it would seem like an experienced mafia player would want to, in some capacity, play the game. If he were picked as scum, he'd almost definitely be more engaged, but if he got a role like Vanilla Town, I could understand him more or less AFKing out of disinterest. Honestly I can't see someone noticing that they're mafia and just deciding that they'd rather not post than actually try and win the game. Why sign up at all if you don't want to play?
Scott was lynched (as Mafia Roleblocker) on Day 1 of Newbie X, largely because he was AFKing. But maybe you didn't know that. Well, there's an example of Mafia AFK'ing in THIS game too. Sulfurus was lynched (as Mafia Godfather) on Day 1, and had all of 5 posts when he flipped Red. 5. Five. Five posts, I said. Additionally, "Why sign up at all if you don't want to play?" was all I could think, when watching Moosy in this game. But you were okay with voting against HIM, while randomly townreading Scott. I just feel like your reads are determined more by game circumstances than they are by post content.
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On July 16 2015 06:24 Half the Sky wrote:
Annnnnnnddddddd ninjaed.........WP just hammered.
GhandiEAGLE(5): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior, WonnaPlay
TJHuggins(4): Noobking, MoosyDoosy, scott31337
Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE
scott31337 (1): Tictock
Not Voting(1): TJHuggins
TJ is actually at 3 votes. I'll be around at the deadline to countersnipe, if needed. But I won't break my back trying to talk anyone into switching off of Ghandi and onto TJ. Ghandi is a pretty good lynch, I think. And if he flips Town, we won't have to feel TOO sad about it, because it's so likely we would have lynched him sooner or later anyway.
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On July 16 2015 06:47 Half the Sky wrote:
To be fair even if GE is scum, I will have a tougher time deciding between Scott and TJH because there are associations for both.
I won't have a tougher time. But if GE is scum, it won't really matter. We should have time to hang them both. And silentwarrior too, even. If GE is scum, we have to be REALLY far off base to still lose somehow.
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On July 13 2015 07:53 n00bKing wrote:
In addition to the 4 players who voted out the Godfather, I am also randomly townreading GhandiEAGLE for some reason or other. So that's 5 people I feel pretty good about.
Man, if only Ghandi had never made another post after I said this...lol
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On July 16 2015 01:44 Half the Sky wrote:
I took your vote in the context of your overall play and it seemed that in addition to what you said you just didn't even consider Sulfurus though Tic (or was it noob? one of them) qualified it might not have been much to work with, then the same could be argued for NHM, sparse yet suspicious.
Yeah, I think this is noteworthy. It was me that hypothesized that maybe silentwarrior didn't comment on Sulfurus because there just wasn't much in Sulf's filter to work with. But "not much in the filter to work with" didn't stop silentwarrior from voting against NHM.
As silentwarrior mentioned, I hadn't moved off of NHM yet when he casts that vote. So if the tide turns against NHM and he gets lynched and flips green, SW can at least say that his responsibility for NHM's death is not as great as mine.
If the scum team were to be Sulfurus/TJHuggins/silentwarrior, then SW's reason to be looking for some random place to toss his vote is fairly straightforward. TJ and Sulf had already voted against Moosy. So maybe SW would want to vote elsewhere, just to keep them from all following the same blueprint. Once the push on Sulfurus gets going, and we have a Sulf vs. Moosy race, which one can silentwarrior reasonably choose in that situation? Again, he doesn't really want to vote against Moosy, when both of his teammates are already there. But he doesn't really want to vote Sulfurus, and get the Godfather lynched on Day 1. So he sits tight and hopes the Moosy lynch will go through (all the more likely, if the Scum team was thinking that Moosy's self-vote actually counted). By the time I drop the hammer on Sulfurus, there are only 12 minutes left in the Day. And there were only 4 minutes left in the Day by the time the vote count is clarified by the Mods, making it absolutely clear that my vote on Sulfurus DID drop the hammer on him. Too late for the scum team to get Moosy back in the lead, even if silentwarrior was around (and not legitimately afk).
This "association case" against TJ/silentwarrior is not spectacularly strong. But I do think SW choosing to vote against NHM is a point against him, based on what the explanation would be for him to never say anything about Sulfurus, and based on how I can reason out a motivation for him to vote there, if he's Scum.
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On July 16 2015 07:47 Tictock wrote:
If we have a Vigi they should absolutely shoot tonight.
And target whom?
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On July 16 2015 07:13 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 07:07 Tictock wrote:
TJ is in no way off the hook, and now Scott looks much worse and needs to really step it up if he is town. Scott could have tried to distance himself from that vote given that a lot of people were scumreading him. He is experienced enough to know this. But it's realllllyyyy wifomy though and extremely high risk (assuming TJH is scum) given that scum are already down a player and he wouldn't stand a chance if he was the last scummer. I think Scott is actually LESS likely to be scum here from a VCA standpoint.
I agree.
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EPT
