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On July 22 2015 23:09 rsoultin wrote:
Lol...well that case isn't really a case, is it?
I would lynch you, ruxx or wave today. I've been clear on all my reads and why. I'm not as certain on bf as you but I think he's less likely to flip scum than the other three.
My townread on truffle is based on knowing how he thinks and knowing for a fact.that he can't replicate that thought process as scum. I've played in almost every game he has and i've had an early read on him since like our 3Rd/4th game together
But frankly if your case can't compete with my toneread it means you have a weak-ass case, especially when i've been skinhead so much this game
Not that I mind but you really are talking to me like I'm town. Just want to point it out to anyone who still cares.
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On July 22 2015 23:11 Oatsmaster wrote:
The problem with your read rsoul is that you and trfel are both mafia, nobody can verify what you are talking about.
That's what's been bugging me actually.
And trfel has been super scummy other than the part where he bitched about out of game stuff.
? seriously?
This whole line of reasoning is such a cop out. I'm not preventing anyone from getting.g their own reads on truffle and there's nothing that says I can't me wrong on him even if i'm usually not anymore than there's anything that would prevent me from townreading him if I were scum regardless of his alignment
Are you incapable of thinking for yourselves?
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On July 22 2015 23:22 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2015 23:09 rsoultin wrote:
Lol...well that case isn't really a case, is it?
I would lynch you, ruxx or wave today. I've been clear on all my reads and why. I'm not as certain on bf as you but I think he's less likely to flip scum than the other three.
My townread on truffle is based on knowing how he thinks and knowing for a fact.that he can't replicate that thought process as scum. I've played in almost every game he has and i've had an early read on him since like our 3Rd/4th game together
But frankly if your case can't compete with my toneread it means you have a weak-ass case, especially when i've been skinhead so much this game Not that I mind but you really are talking to me like I'm town. Just want to point it out to anyone who still cares.
Lol not sure how you're getting that and i'm talking to you like I could be wrong and don't want to lose today regardless. But whatever. Flail around and continue to point out things that mean nothing
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On July 22 2015 23:33 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2015 23:22 Clarity_nl wrote:On July 22 2015 23:09 rsoultin wrote:
Lol...well that case isn't really a case, is it?
I would lynch you, ruxx or wave today. I've been clear on all my reads and why. I'm not as certain on bf as you but I think he's less likely to flip scum than the other three.
My townread on truffle is based on knowing how he thinks and knowing for a fact.that he can't replicate that thought process as scum. I've played in almost every game he has and i've had an early read on him since like our 3Rd/4th game together
But frankly if your case can't compete with my toneread it means you have a weak-ass case, especially when i've been skinhead so much this game Not that I mind but you really are talking to me like I'm town. Just want to point it out to anyone who still cares. Lol not sure how you're getting that and i'm talking to you like I could be wrong and don't want to lose today regardless. But whatever. Flail around and continue to point out things that mean nothing
I will 
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Try to put yourself in my townshoes rsoultin, how do you win? Two strong players left, you and hts. You both think I'm scum, and hts is puking green. I gotta lynch you as you have a chance to flip red and then convince hts she's wrong on me.
I don't like my odds.
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@Rsoultin:
Actions and motivations speak louder than words.
You can fake words, you can't fake votes.
To not get stuck in a web of uncertainty I need to ground myself in some solid assumptions that can form the basis of my reads.
My assumptions about scum was this:
#1) Scum does not want to risk scum getting lynched if they can avoid it.
#2) Scum will hammer town if it does not bring them negative exposure.
The fact that rsoultin sat with 5 afk votes all day and no one hammered her was an extremely strong point for her being scum.
The fact that the 5 people sitting on her never switched off her is a strong point for the people voting on her being town.
If rsoultin was scum and she was being bussed, her team members would've switched off her to make sure she didn't run the risk of getting hammered by town.
This led me to my scum-team of : Rsoultin - Clarity - Trfel.
My previous reads all got messed up when Trfel pointed out that scum is fine with a no-lynch as well.
The question still remains whether mafia was aware of this and playing according to this. I can't know for sure, but I'm not going to assume the scum-team is stupid.
So my new working assumptions are these:
#1) Scum does not want to risk scum getting lynched if they can avoid it.
#2) Scum are fine with either a mislynch or a no-lynch.
Using these assumptions, the fact that rsoultin didn't get hammered is not a scum-tell, since mafia is fine with a no-lynch.
This means that the people voting on rsoultin are no longer town-cleared for voting on scum.
The fact that mafia are fine with a no-lynch means that they have no need to make any strong pushes unless town are consolidating on mafia.
This means that the people afking and not pushing hard for a push are more suspect.
I don't think trfel and EBH are scum together. Trfel would've hammered EBH if HTS didn't switch off.
Trfel also really wanted EBH to hammer clarity, which I don't think trfel does if he's scum with clarity.
The lines become really blurry at this point, but my 2 strongest town-reads I want to hold on to are:
-Boxerfred is town.
-Oatsmaster is town.
With these 2 as town and my own arbirtrary judgement of each persons actions I can form a lot of scum-teams, however my strongest scum-teams all things considered are these:
#1) Rsoultin, Clarity, Trfel.
#2) Clarity, wave, EBH
.
Individually I still think rsoultin is the scummiest, but clarity fits in both worlds.
The lines are really blurry at this point, and I hate trfel for bringing the no-lynch outcome to my attention and shattering my simple world view.
Doubt is seeping into my head as my logic is washed out by the possibilities.
My gut still tells me to lynch rsoultin, but I think clarity fits in both worlds.
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So either I'm scum with rsoultin and I'm pushing her today, or I'm scum with EBH and I just afk'd my vote on him yesterday when he looked the clear lynch.
Try to explain that one.
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On July 23 2015 00:37 Clarity_nl wrote:
So either I'm scum with rsoultin and I'm pushing her today, or I'm scum with EBH and I just afk'd my vote on him yesterday when he looked the clear lynch.
Try to explain that one.
You afk'd your vote on EBH when he had 0 votes. Doesn't mean much.
You're not pushing on rsoultin, you still think she's town. You're only voting her since there's no other options.
On July 22 2015 07:26 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2015 07:15 rsoultin wrote:On July 22 2015 06:48 Clarity_nl wrote:
I'm pretty confident hts is town, so if we're both town then yeah scum is probably cackling, but honestly I feel most of town just kinda handed it to them. I'd be pretty impressed if hts is scum.
Honestly though I don't see how doing any work at this point will get us anywhere. If it's a town on town wagon we can't win the game anyway. I think I played ok this game. You? lol people want to lynch me for scumreading/fighting with hf is essentially what it comes down to so yeah, i think i've played alright this game...apart from that :/ i dunnae if i'd play it any differently? it's not like i tried to fight with him lol >< Nah I think you looked townie from the fights with hf (I realize I've changed my opinion on this often). I mean, I think you're probably capable of playing a good scumgame. Are you scum this game? Ugh, honestly it's hard to tell, take it as a compliment. If I had to put money on it I'd say you're town, although that's on your play alone, when it comes to poe... it's a toss up.
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You'd think if I were scum I wouldn't place myself in a corner like this and not give out townreads like it's christmas or something.
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If you look at context of my EBH vote you'll see all the momentum was going that way
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Give me some potential scum-teams you're seeing then.
If it's not you, then who?
Try to put together a team of 3 that makes sense in your world.
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WoS, rsoultin, trfel
WoS, trfel, ruXxar
are the most likely.
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On July 23 2015 01:17 Clarity_nl wrote:
WoS, rsoultin, trfel
WoS, trfel, ruXxar
are the most likely.
Could you give a short explanation of why those teams fit together?
I also don't see EBH on your lists, what happened to him?
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I agree with hts that EBH's actions just before last lynch cannot be scum!EBH
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WoS is poe, rsoultin is likely only scum if trfel is also scum. HtS, EBH, oats, bf are all town
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and I just find ruxxar/rsoultin/trfel hard to believe due to your interactions with rsoultin
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Vote Count
Clarity_nl (7): Trfel, Half the Sky, XEliteBlueHunter69X, Oatsmaster, rsoultin, ruXxar, boxerfred
rsoultin (2): Clarity_nl, WaveofShadow
Not Voting (0):
Currently, Clarity_nl is set to be lynched. With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day ends at Wednesday, Jul 22 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) in .
Voting is Mandatory! Voting is done in the voting thread: (link)
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Sorry I didn't fight harder guys, seemed kinda hopeless.
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On July 22 2015 23:31 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2015 23:11 Oatsmaster wrote:
The problem with your read rsoul is that you and trfel are both mafia, nobody can verify what you are talking about.
That's what's been bugging me actually.
And trfel has been super scummy other than the part where he bitched about out of game stuff. ? seriously? This whole line of reasoning is such a cop out. I'm not preventing anyone from getting.g their own reads on truffle and there's nothing that says I can't me wrong on him even if i'm usually not anymore than there's anything that would prevent me from townreading him if I were scum regardless of his alignment Are you incapable of thinking for yourselves?
How is my line of reasoning a cop out?
Thats my read on trfel.
What an overreaction.
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yeah i wanna lynch trfel now.
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EPT
