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Witchcraft Mini Mafia III - Page 16

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Kickstart
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States1941 Posts
June 08 2015 19:23 GMT
#301
Wake up to only 2 pages of posts.............. underwhelming. I have to get ready and spend the next several hours at a dinner and graduation so will be away again. Someone do something controversial.

Also don't witchcraft vote me I don't want to be silver bulleted
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
June 08 2015 19:33 GMT
#302
On June 09 2015 04:08 batsnacks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 08 2015 15:05 Tubesock wrote:
Hi world!

Kickstart and Breshke I think are town. I actually like Freezing's response.

For the Great Smurf Debate of 2015 I don't care if Freeze outs or not. personally, I'm happy if he/she doesn't. Obviously, she's doing it for a reason pre-game. I don't get why you want to ruin that for them.

Anyway, anyone still around?


Someone also said they thought foots was rsoultin before.


idk, I personally wouldn't put much into that. First it was he/she and it could have been a matter of convenience to say "she". I know some people default to female pronouns when they are unsure. Even so, Tubesock could know FF's identity through some other means, e.g. they talked to a particular player and knew they were going to smurf in this game.

With that said though, if Tubesock indeed does know FF's identity then it makes them both far more likely to be scum. That would be unfortunate (and rather weird, too) because I actually don't really think that's the case right now.

##unvote

Gonna think for a bit, the lack of feedback from players is a little disappointing. bats, talk to me a bit.

What do you think of other players in the game right now? Is this what you would expect from town yamato, onegu, Lightning?

Have you played with Bill Murray before, and do you think he is town this game?
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
June 08 2015 19:34 GMT
#303
On June 09 2015 04:23 Kickstart wrote:
Wake up to only 2 pages of posts.............. underwhelming. I have to get ready and spend the next several hours at a dinner and graduation so will be away again. Someone do something controversial.

Also don't witchcraft vote me I don't want to be silver bulleted


talk with me, you can address the same questions I asked of bat in my previous post
batsnacks
Profile Blog Joined April 2014
United States4466 Posts
June 08 2015 19:44 GMT
#304
@bugs LS is doing slightly less than I would expect as town. Onegu is doing about equal to what I would expect as town. Yamato is doing way less than I would expect as town and is less abrasive, and Yamato is notorious for doing way less as mafia. I'm leaning town on BM I have played with him a bunch.
Kickstart
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States1941 Posts
June 08 2015 19:45 GMT
#305
I haven't played with many people here and if I did it was a long time ago . First time with BM he seems alright thus far. Onegu I've played with, have issues with him but that game is ongoing can't say much about it; can say I don't particularly like his style but that in itself isn't alignment indicative and I haven't played enough to tell the difference between his town and scum play. Yamato is moody but imo his posting is quite scarce this game which I don't remember normally being the case. Lightning I haven't played with either, seems fine so far but haven't gone through his filter or anything.

Anywho gotta go to dinner, think I'll be home for a bit before having to go to the convention center for the graduation ceremony but don't hold me to being here for a while. Will be on later tonight regardless.
batsnacks
Profile Blog Joined April 2014
United States4466 Posts
June 08 2015 20:02 GMT
#306
Who are your two scummers bugs? If it's BM I might needs some Reasons(TM).
batsnacks
Profile Blog Joined April 2014
United States4466 Posts
June 08 2015 20:11 GMT
#307
Kick's reads are very similar to mine and they were posted within a few minutes of each other btw. That probably means we're both town.
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
June 08 2015 20:33 GMT
#308
Ya my activity isn't exactly stellar but that because the smurf debate bored me. Also bats is right on Yamatos meta in that Yamato usually doesn't do shit as scum compared to his town games and he haven't done shit so far I guess Yamato rolled scum for the 4th time in a row Also Kick I gave you a small sample of my games both old and new games there is plenty other games in the database if you willing to do a meta read on me. Mean time I prob should look at Bugs meta and see where it lines up.
##Vote: Yamato77
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
June 08 2015 20:35 GMT
#309
##vote LightningStrike

I think Lightning is like 95% scum.

At first in my notes I had Lightning as having a scummy entrance, focusing a lot on asking people questions but using a tone and posting style that is very non-confrontational. This causes LS's posts to come off as forced and I find it hard to piece together his logic if he were town. e.g. this post:

On June 08 2015 08:49 LightningStrike wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 08 2015 08:44 Breshke wrote:
On June 08 2015 08:35 LightningStrike wrote:
So Breshke any thoughts on Wherebugsgo right now?


not really. Do you?

On June 08 2015 08:36 wherebugsgo wrote:
On June 08 2015 08:31 Breshke wrote:
Hi

On June 08 2015 08:30 wherebugsgo wrote:
On June 08 2015 08:28 Kickstart wrote:
On June 08 2015 08:26 LightningStrike wrote:
Hi guys I just got around to post and saw that Kickstart made a pact with the devil himself -_- Also I don't like Wherebugsgo voting FreezingFoot on the fact that FreezingFoot is a potential smurf.
@Kickstart thoughts on Wherebugsgo attacking FreezingFoot for being a smurf?

Being a smurf is not alignment indicative.


refusing to divulge relevant information sure is!

identity is a large part of mafia.


So do you think someone that has chosen to smurf is more likely to reveal who they are as town or mafia then?


I think they would be more likely to reveal themselves as town.

Granted, a smurf does not have to reveal themselves to be useful to town. I have smurfed myself, and the reason I do it is often quite simple-most people don't ask, and those who do can be placated by providing opinions and good reads. I have never had the luxury of rolling scum while smurfing, but if I ever did I do not doubt it would be one of the easiest ways to achieve victory.

It is plainly obvious why smurfing is far more advantageous to the individual player than the team as a whole. The town only benefits if the player who is smurfing is a high caliber town player, rolls town, and escapes getting shot night 1 due to being a smurf. Otherwise, town stands to gain nothing from a mediocre townie or a bad townie smurfing other than a lack of insight into the player's behaviour.

You should always hold smurfs to a higher standard because if they refuse to reveal their identity then you have no background to be working with. You have no expectation of their play, and an ordinarily good townie has rolled scum on a smurf you have no way of knowing.


Yeah I understand this but that doesn't make not revealing who you are to be alignment indicative. If someone has chosen to smurf they have chosen pre game that they probably don't want to reveal who they are. I feel like saying, reveal yourself or get lynched, is a waste because it depends on the player on how they will act so you can't really get much from that.

Also to talk about this now instead of when mafia will be trying to hunt roles. I think it is best in at least the first phase that a lot of the chosen powers are information type roles specifically scrying

I kinda dislike his pressure on FreezingFoot since FreezingFoot could be a smurf and him calling him out so early just seems like it's a preplanned motion from him regardless of his alignment so null.


Notice the qualifications I've bolded here.

He doesn't like it, but goes back and says oh I guess it could be preplanned. So it's null. Null is not a read.

There's also this that follows:

On June 08 2015 08:50 LightningStrike wrote:
Also sure it would be nice knowing FreezingFoot's aka but it's not as important as finding scum.


Notice LS says it's not as important as finding scum but LS doesn't actually ever attempt to find scum.

Half of LS's posts focus on "hey I'll be back later" and are also seemingly very self-aware. e.g:

On June 08 2015 09:02 LightningStrike wrote:
Well guys I going to get some dinner and when I come back I will check everything that goes on after this post!


Townies don't generally do this so freaking often. You don't need to announce to everyone that you're going to do your job as a townie, unless you are very new or scum.

So at first I ignored LS because I thought, maybe I'm wrong and this dude is new. I needed more info, however, so I posted this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/486363-witchcraft-mini-mafia-iii?page=14#262 while looking into LS's past games.

TL Mafia database has a LOT of games for LS. So he is NOT a new player. This instantly made me more suspicious, but I wanted to see if as town LS was more confident and helpful. Turns out, LS is one of those players I would say has a very clear cut difference between town and mafia. I would suggest you all to skim over some of LS's past games, but in particular the ones that stand out are:

Jack of All Trades
Horn of Africa
Student Mini Mafia (although this one is from when LS was newer)
XXX Mini Mafia

Compare these quotes in the spoilers:

+ Show Spoiler +


1.
LightningStrike wrote:
I'm back and I finding Geript pretty townie this game but than again I never played vs his Mafia yet but so far I feel he's pushing and asking a ton of questions is pretty much him being town.
Slam is thinking logically so far although I hate how he suggested a RNG shot Blazinghand style but he been pushing out ideas and not being boring like he was in Slytherin and Student IV when he was Mafia so I giving him a town read by meta.
HTS looks really shakey and starting to look a tiny bit like her Void and Newbie LX Mafia games so possible Mafia by meta.
rsoultin I love you and all but I need some extra time on you from the fact that I just coming off of 2 games of you being Mafia and might get some paranoia which I might have still on HTS because I not completely forgiven her for lynching me in Newbie LX. But you being very cheerful so far but idk if that is alignment indicative.
Tubesock I hated the No Shoot idea but the logic behind it seems townie but I have yet to see him play as Mafia.
Breshke is asking some questions and also reconsider his own thoughts and looks townie.
Damdred you need to bleed town this game to me because the last time I played with you in Titanic you were Mafia yet you looked so townie in my eyes I just couldn't really play right
Your Mom and Sepulchre are both smurfs and idk their other ids but I finding Sepulchre pretty townie on his large post and asking questions with some good explanations for why he thought of stuff like HTS making them intentionally bad or bait and his thing on OBS but I remember OBS having bad Day 1s as town so I would give OBS some extra time to see if he bleeds town.
Your Mom haven't posted much either and got Null on him simply because he got very short questions and posts so far so I might need more posts from him to see where he lies for now.


vs

2.
LightningStrike wrote:
Town:
Eden: Played with before when he was Mafia and Town but we he seems to be town this game.
Geript: Toneread says town he seems to ask some good questions.
Snickers: Being extremely serious and giving his thoughts freely it kind of reminds me of a more serious me.
Oatsmaster: Trying to get discussions going with pms and stuff but also he just being himself as town this game.
Liancourt: He seems interested this game which is a good sign for him being town although I never him play as Mafia before.
Null:
Koshi: 1 post from him this game and it isn't really alignment indicative.
sicklucker: I can't read him anymore on Day 1 after playing with him when he was Mafia and I was town. Also his Day 1 is bad.
VisceraEyes: 1 post and wasn't alignment indicative need more posts from him.


Both summary posts, early in the game.

Answer:

+ Show Spoiler +
1 = mafia, 2 = town


1.
LightningStrike wrote:
I don't disagree for now on the Eden read. Rsoultin just seems to happy to be Mafia given she played as Mafia twice in a row into Town with me lol. I'm sorry I was Mafia in that game Damdred it just hurt when you called me Mafia but Geript carried me till he died and did a hilarious bus on Sandroba when sicklucker got lynched lol........


vs

2.
LightningStrike wrote:
Show nested quote +
sicklucker wrote:
##vote dandred

Okay what reasoning you got for voting Damdred because I don't see anything but just the vote onto him without a explanation.



Answer:

+ Show Spoiler +
Both town


1
LightningStrike wrote:
I agree with you on kita Rayn considering a lot has happened since his last post and not really commenting anything relevant except for the shot ideas. Also I remember Toad being mostly carefree early in Hammertime when I was a Cohost when he was Town and he coming across the same way so I incline to think he's town.
Rayn you know how to read Sicklucker from my past experience with you and him together any thoughts on Sicklucker so far?


vs

2
LightningStrike wrote:
I now also torn because I like the case from JAT but HF does seem to play his town meta at the same time from Void Mafia I guess I will need to Yolo on one of them :|
rsoultin and Breshke can you read HF's filter from Void Mafia and JAT's filter from Void also please?
Here is their filters:
Town Holyflare: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/475749-the-void-mafia?user=Holyflare
Scum JAT (Smurfing): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/475749-the-void-mafia?user=Wile E. Coyote



vs

3

LightningStrike wrote:
Sorry I was playing LoL game and HF's case on JAT is legit now that we seen HF flip Town and he made many good points on JAT and honestly the bully behavior that JAT displayed this game when people were voting is consistent with his behavior in Void mafia where he bullied people off him in the entire game as scum. Here's his filter from that game although he just was smurfing in that game that is why the name might be off
His scum game in Void: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/475749-the-void-mafia?user=Wile E. Coyote


answer:

+ Show Spoiler +
1 = Mafia, 2, 3 = Town


1.

LightningStrike wrote:
I'm back and sicklucker is fighting Breshke instead of the other cell mates o.o Also Geript being mad at Kita too and Tube fighting Geript this is interesting stuff going on here and personally I never played in a Cell Setup before so this interesting. Also Geript claimed he got Vig powers and claimed to had shot Sep but yet Sep survived so most likely Ninja in Sep if what Geript was saying is true. I will admit I guarded the Button since we don't know what the button does I thought it was safe play since it kind of like the presents in Carol where we gotten random Presents 1 from a Mass Murderer when unwraped instant kill the person 1 with a Cop power for the Night and 1 with a Vig Shot for the Night and since it prob pure rng what we get I really don't want to give Mafia extra powers or extra powers for ninjas either and weighed it in myself and decided to guard the button.


vs

2.

LightningStrike wrote:
Sorry for not posting much and a update on reading Sandro's past games and will come up with stuff for tomorrow and sicklucker paranoia went through my head sorry and now seeing some light that you are more likely town than Mafia. Tomorrow I will present my findings on Sandro's past games as both alignments and present everything I have on him.


vs

3.

LightningStrike wrote:
I was just wating for more posts to get some better reads that why I haven't posted much because there was really much for me to ready. I still waiting for alakaslam, Dicksmash McIroncock, and Meatpudding to post.
My reads are atm the following
Town: Oatsmaster, sicklucker, Damdred, kushm4sta, Trfel
Null: Half the Sky, Breshke, Alakaslam
Scum: Dicksmash McIroncock, Meatpudding.
Dicksmash didn't post anything after his first post for the day and Meatpudding is either trolling us with the stuff he posted earlier or he scum but time will tell.
Alakaslam at least gave a good explanation for his posts.
Breshke gave a explanation on why he voted for sicklucker
Half the Sky made some decent posts but it reads null in my eyes but I still kind of new to TL Mafia (2nd game in TL mafia).


vs

4.

LightningStrike wrote:
Guys fyi I wont be here from about 11:45 am to at least 4:30 pm CST and I still think Sandroba is Mafia based on meta and Oats I getting him as Town as he playing like he did in Office, Void, and New Years Eve Party where he was a little lazy but he seemed a little motivated now to play the game although I wished he had played on Day 1 but he's here now.


5.

On March 08 2015 22:39 LightningStrike wrote:
Just woke up and will answer your question.
Tubesock I thinking some resemblances of her last game in Titanic now and Day 1 I had paranoia because before Titanic when I played her she was Mafia and rolled Mafia in another game too. The reason I seeing some resemblances from this game to Titanic because in that game she also was confused on setup stuff esp on the fact we had 2 Jail Keepers ( Nigella in Carol) and she having some confusions this game on setup stuff too. So a slight Town meta read on her.

Onegu since you confirmed town by the Cop Check I will do as you ask just promise me you shoot Geript okay?

HTS Happy Birthday Girl I assuming you going to party for a bit
##Unvote
##Vote: Onegu


Answer:

+ Show Spoiler +
All scum




LS's scum play is very very non confrontational and he generally gets away pretty well with just asking questions and making excuses for not having strong opinions or posting much. Tends to be very self-conscious in the thread when he rolls scum, which makes it very easy to recognize him
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
June 08 2015 20:39 GMT
#310
WBG you might want to stop with trying to push mislynches and worry about defending yourself

I guarantee LightningStrike is going to vote you now, for instance
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
June 08 2015 20:40 GMT
#311
I don't need to defend myself. I'm not scum, and anyone who thinks so needs to reevaluate their stance on the game.
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
June 08 2015 20:52 GMT
#312
i know so
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
June 08 2015 20:53 GMT
#313
Okay bugs is totes town he got very similar formatting and stuff to his latest town games to his scum games and his line of questioning to FreezingFoot is also similar how did his line of questioning in his town games. Also Bugs I do tend to do that hey I will be back later stuff a lot regardless of my alignment Also I truly was bored on the smurf debate mainly because it isn't exactly important to know who the smurf is although would be helpful for meta purposes :o Now that the game isn't focused on the great smurf debate I also got a meta read on bats being town he always a interesting person I just hope he doesn't lynch himself again :O Onegu haven't done much so null on him meta wise.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
batsnacks
Profile Blog Joined April 2014
United States4466 Posts
June 08 2015 20:57 GMT
#314
Wow that's not what I was expecting at all. 95% is way too high, I wouldn't go higher than 30%. I've played with LS a bunch and I personally think he's really hard to read; I think this game is well within what he's capable of as town. I wonder what LS will think about this.
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
June 08 2015 20:58 GMT
#315
On June 09 2015 05:53 LightningStrike wrote:
Okay bugs is totes town he got very similar formatting and stuff to his latest town games to his scum games and his line of questioning to FreezingFoot is also similar how did his line of questioning in his town games. Also Bugs I do tend to do that hey I will be back later stuff a lot regardless of my alignment Also I truly was bored on the smurf debate mainly because it isn't exactly important to know who the smurf is although would be helpful for meta purposes :o Now that the game isn't focused on the great smurf debate I also got a meta read on bats being town he always a interesting person I just hope he doesn't lynch himself again :O Onegu haven't done much so null on him meta wise.


No you don't, the manner in which you are doing it in and talking this game is almost exclusively in your scum games.

Could be a matter of coincidence but I highly doubt that

The best part of this post is the "reads" which are both townish/null reads.
batsnacks
Profile Blog Joined April 2014
United States4466 Posts
June 08 2015 21:00 GMT
#316
On June 09 2015 05:53 LightningStrike wrote:
Okay bugs is totes town he got very similar formatting and stuff to his latest town games to his scum games and his line of questioning to FreezingFoot is also similar how did his line of questioning in his town games. Also Bugs I do tend to do that hey I will be back later stuff a lot regardless of my alignment Also I truly was bored on the smurf debate mainly because it isn't exactly important to know who the smurf is although would be helpful for meta purposes :o Now that the game isn't focused on the great smurf debate I also got a meta read on bats being town he always a interesting person I just hope he doesn't lynch himself again :O Onegu haven't done much so null on him meta wise.


LS talk about how bugs thinks you're being non-confrontational and are easy to read. Or talk about those quotes he used you have a really good memory you should be able to think of something.
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
June 08 2015 21:03 GMT
#317
On June 09 2015 05:57 batsnacks wrote:
Wow that's not what I was expecting at all. 95% is way too high, I wouldn't go higher than 30%. I've played with LS a bunch and I personally think he's really hard to read; I think this game is well within what he's capable of as town. I wonder what LS will think about this.


Doesn't matter if you think he is hard to read, evaluate his play based on his behaviour, not based on what he is "capable" of.

Lots of people skirt by as scum because the expectations for them as townies are low. However they end up getting overlooked because people think that expected contribution level is somehow correlated with alignment. It isn't-the only thing that matters is behaviour and what you can reasonably expect from one perspective vs the other.

Ask yourself why LS would give out null and town reads but never actually finger anyone in particular.

For example why is the bolded:

On June 09 2015 05:33 LightningStrike wrote:
Ya my activity isn't exactly stellar but that because the smurf debate bored me. Also bats is right on Yamatos meta in that Yamato usually doesn't do shit as scum compared to his town games and he haven't done shit so far I guess Yamato rolled scum for the 4th time in a row Also Kick I gave you a small sample of my games both old and new games there is plenty other games in the database if you willing to do a meta read on me. Mean time I prob should look at Bugs meta and see where it lines up.
##Vote: Yamato77


The first sentence in this post? Why did he choose to mention that at all? From the town games of LS's that I have read/skimmed he almost never does that.

I somewhat agree on Yamato, it is worrying that he is not doing anything, but this is also one of the lowest-common-denominator lynches that is currently responsible. In the context of the current game Yamato was originally slated as a replacement. There's probably a good reason he signed up as a replacement instead of simply signing up normally, so I would definitely not consider lynching yamato day 1. He has too much potential (and based on the few posts he has made so far I find it hard to believe that anyone can confidently call him scum at this point)
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
June 08 2015 21:06 GMT
#318
the same thing re: expectation goes the other way, too. Lots of people end up trying to lynch townies of whom they have high expectations, but for whatever reason disagree with their thought processes in a particular game.

I have seen good townies eat votes and even lynches simply because they had an off game or because a bunch of sheep agreed with one dude who thought, "hey this player is supposed to be good and their arguments don't make sense to me".

Don't base lynches on expectation unless you have other good evidence to support it.
batsnacks
Profile Blog Joined April 2014
United States4466 Posts
June 08 2015 21:10 GMT
#319
On June 09 2015 06:06 wherebugsgo wrote:
the same thing re: expectation goes the other way, too. Lots of people end up trying to lynch townies of whom they have high expectations, but for whatever reason disagree with their thought processes in a particular game.

I have seen good townies eat votes and even lynches simply because they had an off game or because a bunch of sheep agreed with one dude who thought, "hey this player is supposed to be good and their arguments don't make sense to me".

Don't base lynches on expectation unless you have other good evidence to support it.


Every game I've played where yamato is mafia he pretty much afk/non-committed into death and he has mentioned when he was town that he is (paraphrasing) "part of the old guard of players who are incapable of emulating their town play as mafia." The only post I remember from him so far is him saying this is about when he should pick terrorblade. I think that's at least decent evidence already and his activity-tell considered I don't think it's productive for you to be defending him.
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
June 08 2015 21:11 GMT
#320
On June 09 2015 06:10 batsnacks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 09 2015 06:06 wherebugsgo wrote:
the same thing re: expectation goes the other way, too. Lots of people end up trying to lynch townies of whom they have high expectations, but for whatever reason disagree with their thought processes in a particular game.

I have seen good townies eat votes and even lynches simply because they had an off game or because a bunch of sheep agreed with one dude who thought, "hey this player is supposed to be good and their arguments don't make sense to me".

Don't base lynches on expectation unless you have other good evidence to support it.


Every game I've played where yamato is mafia he pretty much afk/non-committed into death and he has mentioned when he was town that he is (paraphrasing) "part of the old guard of players who are incapable of emulating their town play as mafia." The only post I remember from him so far is him saying this is about when he should pick terrorblade. I think that's at least decent evidence already and his activity-tell considered I don't think it's productive for you to be defending him.


I'm not defending him. I just don't think he's a good day 1 lynch.

We have better leads to work with right now. At best he's a last-resort lynch that I would be okay with assuming something drastic changes.
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