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Having finished reading Scotts filter I have no more reservations that he might be town this game.
I can find clear evidence of him fearmongering as VE put it.
On June 07 2015 07:18 scott31337 wrote:Oh and I have this magical thing called the Subscribed viewer counter. I know it gets thrown off at times by Observers like myself, but when peeps refresh the thread and no body posts it is noted. 
Reading the thread is a great thing to do, and it is often better to reread and think through what you are saying than to post your knee-jerk reaction to something.
On June 07 2015 07:53 scott31337 wrote:
What stops them is the "Why am I still alive" policy. You can only run that towncred for so long and wonder why that person wasn't shot by the mafia, unless they are mafia. I can get into it more if you would like, but that's the jist of it.
There might be some truth to this theory, but I think it pertains much better in a latergame situation (like 3-5 people left with 1/3 still being mafia) and someone has skated by on weak towncred alone. The way Scott uses it in this game is more like a countdown timer before a player can be lynched.
He goes back on his silly argument about Nydus' formatting I noted earlier, swaps Nydus to town.. then uses it himself...
On June 08 2015 03:09 scott31337 wrote:
Damdred/GG/Fidei/Chocolate
I think they are in these four. Milo's play hasn't been splendid, but that unvote in day 1 is pretty telling - although I don't want him to just ride it and not do a whole lot.
He throws himself out as a likely NK each night. Which is a odd little way to look towny, but it kinda worked on me when I was more tunneled on Choco.
Claims he is mostly townread by everybody & therefor suggests he shouldn't be suspected/lynched...
I had a few more points but upon reviewing Damdred's case again I found that they lined up with his own reasons for scumming Scott.
I also find it funny how Scott multiple times in this game mentions that he thinks there is a veteran player on the Scumteam, and that it is one of Damdred/VE/Onegu, while he gives townreads to Onegu in general and often makes posts that look like vauge pockets attempts to Damdred.
On June 09 2015 06:12 scott31337 wrote:
Okay dokey What shall we do Damdred?
Scott you played a pretty good game buddy, I'm impressed. Between you and Onegu and my own misgivings on Damdred I was almost swayed into voting him with you guys, but I'm doing my reading and it tells me that Damdred is town and that you are scum.
My vote stays.
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Sorry guys I'm not able to be active today, my entire morning has been pumping water out of my basement >.<
I'm pretty sure we are on the right track with scott here, and sorry but I'm going to have to leave my vote there since i simply have no time today to follow discussion.
Just in case there are still any doubts..
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
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Sweet Fing Jesus thank god we got Mafia.
I would have been completely down to swap my vote to Nydus if you guys had been talking about it earlier, and I'm really sorry I wasn't around for EoD to talk things out with everyone. I often have to leave for work a little before EoD but today I also had to spend like 4 hours pumping water out of my basement and now have a week of throwing out all the waterlogged shit we have down there to look forward too.
I'm pretty sure I answered scotts question at some point, but if I did not it was due to me being distracted with other stuff. I could honestly care less that lurking mafia Nydus didn't mention me expect when I was looking like a convenient mislynch. I've given several reads on Nydus and have always found him to be rather scummy, but Nydus was good at staying in the background while there were better looking targets. I blame myself and my tendency to get tunneled on people, I've been trying to do better about it but clearly I have more to work on.
I can still see a world where Scott is scum here and that he and Onegu could have just decided to bus their partner to get towncred and try to solidify their position for another LyLo tomorrow. However, I'm actually agreeing with scott here, Milo is looking really bad and I hate that he only has his D1 one unvote thing that looks towny and everything else is shit.
There has be be the last 2 Mafia in Scott/Onegu/Milo and I'm still fairly certain Scott is mafia here. So I just need to try and work out if Onegu is town or not... and see if I can make sense of why scum!Milo would pull that unvote stunt and remove his only claim to towncred this game.
I swear to god if you guys lynch me and lose the game because some RL situation has come up and forced me to take some time off from this game I'm going to be pissed at all of you for months to follow. I even made an effort to put time into my own read and case on Scott while dealing with this crap when I could have easily just sheeped Damdred's case. So fuck off about my "excuses" when I'm still clearly trying to play this game despite dealing with other shit.
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On June 14 2015 12:09 VisceraEyes wrote:
steve = scott in my last post. Don't smoke and post.
I have a very different rule about this... 
Especially lately it's one of the few things that helps me relax when shit gets frustrating and I find it good for filter diving, specially large filters.
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@ Milo
Why did you vote Scott? The wagon on Damdred was still going when you voted, so why vote with your two scumreads and vote Scott?
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On June 14 2015 12:09 VisceraEyes wrote:
Based on the fact that steve voted on someone else JUST BEFORE he voted for Nydus yesterday, I have to say that I'm still harboring a secret world where he decided that he was more important to the mafia team than lurker Nydus, and orchestrated with teammate Onegu to hyperbus Nydus instead of himself dying.
1) Steve could have gotten a wagon rolling on Nydus MUCH sooner, he mentioned being suspicious of Nydus earlier and townies (myself included) were murmuring assent. Yet he didn't try and get Nydus lynched then, he stayed on Damdred with Onegu. It wasn't until we finally got milo's vote that steve did anything at all to fight his lynch actually. And when he did move his vote, he moved it to Ticktock first. Not Nydus.
2) Milo (presumed townie before flip) and Ticktock (general townread before flip) were both going to be AFK for the flip, explicitly in the thread I believe. If they're townies on mafia steve then a switch to mafia Nydus looks REALLY BAD for them.
3) Onegu's vote was meaningless - we had majority on Nydus before Onegu moved. Also Nydus (confirmed mafia after the flip) moved his vote to Steve - distancing much?
Anyway, I just wanted that out there before I die. I still think it's at lest fairly likely that Steve and Onegu are mafia. I'm trying to reevaluate, but this has to be in the thread.
This bolded point is actually pretty huge imo. I'm not very good at vote analysis generally and since I wasn't around I don't have a good sense of how EoD went down yet (I read everything, but I suppose I should look harder at how the votes went down).
Point 1 is pretty good too, though honestly I feel like I failed to push for a Nydus lynch myself even though I was scumreading him much more earlier in the game (I admit he was off my radar today since I was distracted with other stuff). So I know I am guilty of this as well, though with Scott under pressure it does seem even more odd that he spent time making a "town case" for himself rather than try and push other scumreads of his.
I'm also pretty concerned about how easily Scott fipped his read on me. Last night phase he said I was his top townread. It seems like that was only the case when I was townreading scott though... interesting. All he's really brought against me is that I A) Voted for him and B) "shouldn't be alive" kus I've been so towny...
Does that make much sense to anyone?
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@ Onegu
Who are you reading as scum now?
On June 14 2015 06:08 Onegu wrote:
But this means Damdred prolly not scum..
I don't understand this post. You've been so sure on your rule all game, even when Shen flipped town you claimed Damdred was complete scum based on your rule... Now that it's actually caught someone why are you doubting it?
Also since Nydus was also a violator on your rule, why did it take you so long to switch your vote to him?
I'm having an even harder time following your thinking through EoD than I have this whole game... Expect if I imagine you as Scum pushing your teammate in a last ditch effort for towncred...
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Day 4 Vote Count
Damdred (0): Onegu, Scott, milo109, NydusHerMain
Scott (3): Damdred, VisceraEyes, Tictock, milo109, NydusHerMain
Tictock (0): Scott
NydusHerMain(4): Damdred, Scott, VisceraEyes, Onegu
So here are the final votes for the Day.
As I see it, we have Onegu & Scott starting a wagon on Damdred. We all knew Onegu was going to vote Damdred today as this was stated well in advance. Scott votes in response to Damdred's case on him.
Milo joined the Damdred wagon, but then jumps off it like he is reconsidering who he wants to vote. I don't think he ever really tells us why or what he is thinking... so bleh
Damdred votes scott after making his case, VE joins that vote. Later on I get on this wagon as well.
Ok boring stuff out of the way
Now at end of day we have scott defending his life and Onegu pushing for "Scumdred" Eventually the idea of lynching Nydus is brought up
Damdred was the first person to suggest this notion and VE quickly agrees (though he doesn't vote Nydus till much later...). At this point I was already AFK, the post I made at the top of pg 101 was the only 5 min I had to post this game. Hence my apologies *stares at VE* + Show Spoiler +I would have supported this push on Nydus just for everyone's information
Scott is quite adiment at this point that he prefers to vote on me, and does so. However, he later comes out with this post.
On June 14 2015 05:02 scott31337 wrote:
One of the major things was in my townpost - How he is still alive D4 when he seemed to be shitting town rainbows - I had a general town consensus (TT did on me as well until n3/d4) and every one turned on me. I'm willing to vote onegu but I think that'll end the game as well, but it's better then the chance we have going at this moment (Unless you are mafia).
NHM has a better chance of continuing the game though if we vote him.
If you were mafia why would you bring up the second chance thoughts unless you just want to fuck with us just for fun (haha) because you already had the game in the bag, is what I'm wondering now.
That's an odd way to say someone is scum. This bolded line really feels like TMI to me as well. Why is scott suddenly so sure a Nydus lynch will keep the game going? He's been fine to just defend himself and vote Damdred, but when there is a sense that this vote could switch to Nydus he jumps all over it.
Onegu switches to Nydus pretty late (:51) very reluctant to move off Damdred even for another person who broke his rule.
Then Nydus jumps his vote to scott very late (:56) ?
This is an odd move, it looks like Nydus is suddenly siding with Milo and Myself... but why?
On June 14 2015 05:57 NydusHerMain wrote:
Taking advantage of an ark w e lose if you vote me but I bet there's a town in ticktock or milo and I lose anyways since they're busy zzzz gg
This was Nydus' post right after he voted scott. Knowing that he was going to flip red he sides with Milo and I calling us town? Would he do that if we were his scum mates? I mean it kinda outs the 3 of us together far too well doesn't it?
I'm looking at the votes and I see clear evidence that this whole play was thought out in QT after Damdred suggests Nydus as a lynch. Damdreds post his suggestion then about 17 min later scott made this post. 17 min is ample time for an active scum team to plan a play like this out. Both Scott and Onegu were clearly active and posting at the time, and I think we can safely assume Nydus was lurking (as he has been all game with a 4 page filter >.<).
Scott is suddenly so sure about Milo and I, but I'm not seeing what his reasoning is. It all just seems too convenient to me that Nydus suicides onto scott for no reason at EoD and this leads scott to scumming the 3 of us as a team.
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I haven't had much time to think this through much myself.
What about a world where Onegu and Milo are both scum?
I'm still leaning scum on scott myself, but there is a world where he might be town here.
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Ok back again for a solid bit of time tonight. Starting to get my house situation sorted out so will have more time to put into this game again. Also I will be around for EoD this time.
So my personal opinion is still that Scott and Onegu are the scumteam here, with an outside chance that Milo is scum and I'm wrong about one of the other two. I'm going to make an attempt tonight to slim down possibilities so that town can focus on the right people.
Right now I just wanted to summarize where I see this game sitting.
At the moment it seems that the two main scum teams being considered is either Milo/TT or Scott/Onegu. I'm not sure thats the end of it, but that seems to be the main teams in discussion.
Thus far we have Scott voting Milo, based on his case. I'll revist this case in a later post. I don't think it's bad, and I may actually be willing to lynch Milo today but I'm not not convinced yet.
Scott is also scumming me, but I don't see much reasoning for this. Besides what I've mentioned before and argued against. I have to imagine he realizes he doesn't have a real case on me that's why he's pushing Milo today. Also it prob helps that Damdred said Milo should be lynched today and he was the NK.
I honestly don't know where Onegu stands. I asked him last night what his reads are after he suddenly flipped his Damdred read but he didn't have anything to share but more thoughts related to Damdred. The only thing I know for sure about Onegu is that he is hard reading Scott as town (and Scott is doing the same to him).
VE and Milo seem to be considering possibilities right now, and I'm not very sure where they stand on things.
And then there is me...
VE and Milo look like they have to be town to me here, as they are the ones trying to look at the game. Onegu is still a bundle of Null who at this point shared fewer thoughts or reads than Milo. Scott looks like he is scum trying to push his last potential mislynches and is somewhat flailing to explain why his world makes sense.
I'd like to remind Town of the case on Scott brought up by Damdred. My own (partial) read into Scott's filter followed by my conclusions. I also made a counter to Scotts "I'm Town" case...
I'm very tempted to just vote Scott here, but I want to make sure I'm not missing anything before I place my vote.
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Ok, so I wanted to make an attempt to think through all possible scumteams today, and see which ones make no sense so we can throw them out. As far as I'm concered there is no way to confirm anyone as Town right now (no more Blue Roles & no Night actions to factor in) that means we should focus on eliminating as many scum teams as we can.
VE/?? - Very Slim chance of VE/Scott. Nothing else makes sense. I'm almost certain VE is town since the world of VE and Scott being scum here is very hard to believe.
+ Show Spoiler +Any team besides VE/Scott makes no sense since VE could have swapped off Nydus back to Scott with Nydus and won the game.
I have a hard time seeing VE/Scott as a team though since VE was willing to vote on Scott really early on. Why would VE want to bus Scott so early on if they were a team? Seems like they could have easily pushed on Damdred with Nydus and Onegu, especially since Milo and I were potentially voting Dam early on (Milo did in fact).
Would this scumteam decide to bus Scott early on based on Damdred's case? It seems unlikely since they know Onegu is voting Damdred.
Scott/TT - posted for Lol's. Yea we ain't a scumteam hard bussing each other in triple LyLo... Besides we both would have been on Damdred if this were a possibility. Similar reasoning as to why VE/Scott doesn't add up.
Onegu/Milo - I threw this idea out earlier today as a spitball idea. This team doesn't add up since Onegu could have switched to Scott EoD for the win.
Scott/Milo - Would Milo hammer his scummate before going AFK? Doesn't make sense when he could easily vote Dam again.
Scott/Onegu - This is the world I believe we are in. I explained how the voting makes sense in this post for this team. Onegu and Scott hard town reading each other going into today supports them being on a team as well.
Onegu/TT - Once again, Onegu simply switches to Scott EoD and wins the game. Not a team.
Milo/TT - Both of us were AFK EoD so our votes remained on Scott where we put them before Nydus ever becomes a wagon. In this world our scummate Nydus decides to swap to Scott with us in a futile attempt to do ... what? Clearly Nydus is getting lynched at this point so moving his vote has to have a reason. Unless you think Milo and myself were actually in QT and not AFK and this was some elaborate scheme we devised to have Nydus side with us last min and therefore make it too obvious we are a team... Or in the reality where Milo and Myself are likely AFK at this point, why would Nydus make this switch last min on his own?
I honestly thought I had better reasons to think Scott and Milo are a team here, but now that i look things over I have to admit that Milo/TT and Scott/Onegu are the only teams that make sense here. There is a very, VERY, slim chance that VE/Scott is a team here as well. I have a hard time buying that team since I'm still reading VE as town.
Thus, I have to conclude that Scott is 100% mafia here and while Onegu is most likely his partner there is a very slim chance that VE is scum here as well.. I don't buy that world, but town should be willing to look at it.
Please let me know if I missed a possible team here, or a solid reason why one of these teams doesn't make sense + Show Spoiler +I was only really looking at D4 voting logic here
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@ Scott
Well since I'm town, I'm not certain about anybody atm. That's why I prefer to backup my claims with actual logic and reasoning.
If it weren't for my team logic I just posted I would still be considering Milo possible scum. However I clearly can't accept the world where he and I are a scum team since I know better and that leaves you and Onegu. (or that weird world where VE is willing to bus you early D4 but then Nydus volunteers to take that lynch instead of you after Damdred brings up Nydus as a lynch).
Humm, actually if you guys were willing to bus each other going into D4 it would make the switch to Nydus make a lot more sense even given the somewhat short 17min time frame between Damdred suggesting the idea and you running with it. I'll admit 17 min isn't a huge window to plan out a what I'm suggesting, but it is possible, and the details dont have to have been solid during those 17min. Just the idea in that time being mentioned in the QT and I can see you guys running with it, working out the details as you go.
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EBWOP
On June 15 2015 15:17 Tictock wrote:
@ Scott
Well since I'm town, I'm not certain about anybody else atm. That's why I prefer to backup my claims with actual logic and reasoning.
.
I am sure about you now.
##Vote: Scott
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On June 16 2015 00:53 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2015 00:51 milo109 wrote:On June 14 2015 05:33 Damdred wrote:
Ad long as you are here ve I have a tab open for last second vote switch.
Though it's scary but tt is wielding me out a bit to Sigh there is not a world where town would see it. Scum just give hosts a heads up that they are doing it. You do it in the last 5-10 seconds and town has to refresh to see it then go change their vote.
Huh? Since when is this a thing?
Scum has to vote via the Voting thread just like everyone else right?
I mean whats the point of having a thread like that if Scum can just secretly vote via PM or w/e to the hosts...
Between this and these posts, I have a feeling like Onegu is trying to drop dumbtells all over the place to keep with the "meta" that Scott keeps defending Onegu with.
On June 15 2015 07:35 Onegu wrote:
Will be voting milo. Scott is like 99% confirmed to me as town or game would be over. Like if me and scoot were mafia Damdred would have been lynched.
Also if someone is blue it is the time to claim
On June 15 2015 08:06 Onegu wrote:
Normally there are 2-3 blues
On June 15 2015 08:19 Onegu wrote:
Onegu once again not reading OP
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Like, even if I did accept that a Meta read can be THAT strong and gauge Onegu by this "lazy/useless if town" "tryhard if scum" + Show Spoiler +BTW,
THIS is exactly why I don't like meta reads. It is so easy for a player like Onegu to change up his Meta to secure a win in a game. The idea that this is the only way we can Townread Onegu this game makes me distrust this meta stuff even more.
Onegu has filled up 8 pages of filter pushing Damdred and talking about his Onegu Rule. Not once has he bothered to give a read on anyone else, besides a troll townread for Choco/Milo, and now this
On June 15 2015 07:35 Onegu wrote:
Will be voting milo. Scott is like 99% confirmed to me as town or game would be over. Like if me and scoot were mafia Damdred would have been lynched.
Milo is right, in the event that Onegu stays on Damdred (remember Onegu didn't swap till :51 and even then it was meaningless, Nydus was already the lynch) and Scott swaps back last min this is a HUGE red flag to Damdred and VE and they would absolutely swap back to Scott. It's a risky play when there is already the plan of action to lynch Nydus and get towncred moving into today.
Obv the NK had to be VE or Damdred last night given how things settled after EoD. Damdred may have been rethinking things about Scott, but he was also reluctant to scum read me. Who better to kill off for Scott/Onegu than the person who first brought suspicion onto Scott? Who was otherwise being townred (besides the other NK's like I pointed out in one of my posts about Scott).
Hell, given how Nydus swapped to Scott for no reason right at the EoD I think it's safe to assume Scum is going for some WIFOM plays today. Killing Damdred (who was the obv attempt at a mislynch D4) might seems like a silly thing for team Scott/Onegu to do, but it fits with this world where Nydus sacrificed himself to give towncred to Scott/Onegu & then swaps to Scott to create confusion.
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Holy....
I didn't expect to wake up and see this many pages of back and forth between Milo and Onegu... Funny how both of them are suddenly so active today compared to the rest of the game.
I've got somethings to deal with today still but overall I should be around through EoD today. I see that Onegu and Scott still are sticking to the votes last EoD as their argument for being town, which just keeps perfectly in line with the bus on Nydus theory IMO.
I was going to try and make a new case on scott last night, but fell asleep before I got more than a page or two into his filter. Think I'm burnt out on the filter dives anyways this game...
So to quickly recap, Damdred made his Case.
Scott posted a "Town case" for himself, which I responded too.
Then there was the filter dive I did, followed by my conclusions.
I'm certain Scott is mafia here, and since he has been hard defending Onegu and vise-versa I want to conclude that they have to be the scum team...
The fact that this game isn't over (scum hasn't conceded) has me a tad bit worried. When Scott flips red, then it has to be either VE or myself to be the NK. Whoever is left tomorrow, reconsider everything! There is a slim chance that we've overlooked Milo bussing scott before he left on his trip then Nydus gets back and tells his team to bus him instead, or that slime chance about VE.
I'm convinced Scott is the correct lynch today, I just don't want Town to have gotten through 2/3 of this LyLo to get tunneled and loose on the last day.
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On June 17 2015 02:32 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2015 00:57 Tictock wrote:Holy.... I didn't expect to wake up and see this many pages of back and forth between Milo and Onegu... Funny how both of them are suddenly so active today compared to the rest of the game. I've got somethings to deal with today still but overall I should be around through EoD today. I see that Onegu and Scott still are sticking to the votes last EoD as their argument for being town, which just keeps perfectly in line with the bus on Nydus theory IMO. I was going to try and make a new case on scott last night, but fell asleep before I got more than a page or two into his filter. Think I'm burnt out on the filter dives anyways this game... So to quickly recap, Damdred made his Case. Scott posted a "Town case" for himself, which I responded too. Then there was the filter dive I did, followed by my conclusions. I'm certain Scott is mafia here, and since he has been hard defending Onegu and vise-versa I want to conclude that they have to be the scum team... The fact that this game isn't over (scum hasn't conceded) has me a tad bit worried. When Scott flips red, then it has to be either VE or myself to be the NK. Whoever is left tomorrow, reconsider everything! There is a slim chance that we've overlooked Milo bussing scott before he left on his trip then Nydus gets back and tells his team to bus him instead, or that slime chance about VE. I'm convinced Scott is the correct lynch today, I just don't want Town to have gotten through 2/3 of this LyLo to get tunneled and loose on the last day. Why would you be worried that scum has not conceded? Intelligent scum only concede when there is no chance of winning. You two have plenty of chance of winning if VE does not see the light. It's interesting why you would post this or reference this. I'm here now, had some morning errands to do (I'm in the west US) but I should have all day until deadline.
I think it's obvious why that would be a concern for me, but you are too ingrained in the fiction of Milo and I being scum to be able to admit it.
I'll give you a hint:
+ Show Spoiler +It's because I'm town and care about tomorrows lynch as well as today's. You do remember that there is one more day of LyLo if scum isn't willing to concede...
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I'm finally done pumping water and carrying out waterlogged stuff from my basement for the day.
Not sure whats left to discuss though, we seem to be pretty stuck in our views all around.
Also not sure if VE is around, and he seems to be the swing vote atm.
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@ VE
I don't know how you can say I'm not trying to figuer things out, but when Scott and Onegu are hard townreading each other and pushing Myself as scum with Milo it's hard not to just OMGUS on them.
I'm wondering though, what is looking towny to you about scott?
I looked through his filter and came to the opposite conclusion, do you think I'm just too biased?
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I assume you are referring to this post?
On June 04 2015 04:45 scott31337 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 03 2015 09:50 GGTeMpLaR wrote:On June 03 2015 06:05 sicklucker wrote:
##Vote Tictock I feel morally ok policy voting in non newbie games untill he proves hes town My gut tells me the specific diction you chose with regards to being 'morally' okay with it inclines me to believe you are townie. On June 03 2015 06:17 Tictock wrote:
In regards to kicks question.
I am pretty new to TL forums. Have played in 2 of the newbie games (the 2 most recent ones, including the ongoing one).
I see a few familiar names, but most of you I don't know... and am HIGHLY suspicious of...
And of course I know SL, who I may have to ignore. I apologize in advance if I start tunneling him, I have a tendency to do that. I think your intentional emphasis on the fact that you are 'HIGHLY' suspicious of people is scum-indicative. You are making sure we all know you are 'suspicious' of people, aka have imperfect information aka are town. A very roundabout and subtle way to go about telling people you are town. I think this is an excellent policy vote. ##Vote Tictock He never actually voted in the voting thread, but this looks like a Chezinu rule vote to me - A misguided understanding of a fairly new guy - when town would be afraid to vote so early but scum wants to start a easy ML.
It's ok imo, but pretty NAI.
Scott is throwing out useful info D1, reminding GG there is a voting thread and discussing the Chez rule. Good towny things to do but super easy to replicate as scum for easy towncred.
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EPT
