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On May 04 2015 02:41 y0su wrote:
well, that's the problem, look at the biggest back and forth we've had: -c- vs scott.
-c- came in with what I feel was a very bold 1st post (list) that bugged me. why would he pick 3 scum out of the active players and and let others slide just because he didn't have a read (afk/low post count)?
he had some decent points, but was it all to put on pressure or to start swaying people?
without experience, it doesn't feel like something town would do (and this is -c-'s 2nd game afaik)
that followed into the rather aggressive finger pointing with scott.
I had a weird feel from him from the start and non of what -c- said helped him... but again it just feels like "an easy target" to try to get people to bandwagon.
...but all that leaves me is not wanting to vote for either one (yet).
Alright, so I went back to this post of yours - this is where I think you had this bad feeling on Celestial.
Now, let's take a slightly different approach.
1 Let's pretend Celestial doesn't exist. Look at Scott's filter alone. Independent of Celestial, what do you think of Scott?
2 There have been a few comments and respective reads on scumming afk players (like me, sicklucker), etc. Do you understand now why Celestial did what he did with low-content players?
#2 made you uncomfortable on Celestial then the way I read this. Are you still uncomfortable now?
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I have a meeting at work. I will be back.
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On May 04 2015 23:20 y0su wrote:It's two early things about -c-: The entire "tone" and timing of his first post followed by the relentless push towards scott. This just seems strange bold for someone to do in their 2nd game. then things like followed by Show nested quote +Guys, lets lynch scott. Personally I'm about 95% sure he's mafia at this point and if he's not he's playing in a way detrimental to town anyway. It's just sounds like -c- is willing to do anything to get scott (even if he's not scum?)... I do like the read on scott and haven't found anything wrong in the case.
Gah.
Alright, if you were a vet I'd be throwing you in the scum pile, to be honest. Even as a newbie, I think you are pretty poor at the moment.
Your last two posts indicate to me you aren't reading the thread at the very least, or not considering/ignoring context, and I'll illustrate why. Starting with the above:
1 You are saying that the relentless push towards Scott is bold for someone to do in their 2nd game. "2nd game" indicates newbie, and that a newbie cannot make bold reads.
Celestial has already indicated he is disregarding meta (which requires experience) twice over before you drew a conclusion on him (timestamps), which should be a justification for how he's making reads, and if (likely) he's town, it's reasonable that he should be trusting his own reads way more than other people's interpretation of meta:
On May 03 2015 11:34 -Celestial- wrote:
Hey guys. Sorry for the late entry. I've been somewhat distracted playing KanColle recently; there's an event on and I'm desperate to clear it, first event I've been in. Anyway there's probably just about enough to write something on most people now so...off we go.
Unfortunately in the time I've been away I've NOT been keeping an eye on games going on. Then again I tend to prefer any meta reading from games people have actually been in together. On with the show:
On May 03 2015 21:44 -Celestial- wrote:
I have absolute confidence in my reads actually. My comment about keeping an eye on games was meant to be directed at the fact that I'm not using people's prior game experience as a source of info because I was expecting people to throw the usual "he/she/I alway(s) plays like this!" stuff at me in response to my reads.
I mean why would experience be required to make bold town reads? Meta reads are not the only way to scumhunt and he's already acknowledged he is ignoring a method that requires experience.
On May 04 2015 02:41 y0su wrote:
without experience, it doesn't feel like something town would do (and this is -c-'s 2nd game afaik)
2 The contradiction in your final sentence. You think Celestial is willing to do anything to get Scott, yet you say now you like the read on Scott, which covers (at least) the same points for basis that Celestial had in his initial scumread.
Your hesistation on voting Scott comes from a bad feeling you had about Celestial. That basis does NOT change when he presents the case now on Celestial. I saw your quotes. The first one (absolute confidence) he's already justified and I re-illustrated it.
The second one I think you are taking out of context. You aren't even evaluating the context that Celestial is putting it in.
On May 03 2015 21:44 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2015 19:58 Superbia wrote:
There's also a flagrant disparity between what you say about disformation and ritoky (which leads me to believe both are town if you end up being mafia):
[...]
So you say that you yourself did not like disformation's opening post, but you feel like ritoky is scummy for pushing on him? Is it not townie for ritoky to push on something that may very well be scummy? Furthermore, "easy push"? Since when are you so sure that disformation is town? You're misrepresenting things again here. I already said in my last post that of my three red reads it was the weakest, AND that it wasn't just for the push on disinformation. Stop trying to pretend that it was solely for that push. I didn't like disinformation's opening post, no. But ultimately disinformation has posted stuff other than that so far. ritoky's actions up to that point had been to post garbage and pressure disinformation. Literally nothing else. disinformation's other posts make me somewhat think he's just a very newbie town player with a bad opening post. ritoky on the other hand hadn't posted anything at all to make me think he's not just trying to distract from mafia hunting. Given that both you and scott are scum, ritoky was the one who seemed to be looking to misdirect the most at that point. >Claiming that a post containing two and a half town reads, three red reads and a bunch of nulls on people who are primarily inactive or new is fluffy in an attempt to make me look wishy-washy and unconfident.Nice try, but you've just confirmed you're mafia. This chainsaw defence you're using for your scum buddy scott proves it. You're attacking his attacker, which is scummy as hell. Admittedly there's an outside chance that you're just OMGUSing me, but I think you're too experienced a player to do that, you're instead trying to save your buddy. At a guess you've told him in the mafia QT to shut up for a bit and stop making himself look worse whilst you try to get a different train going by undermining me and take the heat off him.
I've highlighted the key words in bold. Now to be fair, I can't tell if he's saying that ritoky or Superbia is "confirmed" mafia. I think he means Superbia here. But either way he justifies where his reads are coming from, and that's observable behaviour. He's offering a motive, yes the motive could be flawed since it's pre-associative flips (which a lot of people do as both alignments), but ultimately it's not one that requires experience.
So as I questioned in my previous post, I can't figure out why you're still hesistant to vote Scott if you don't like Scott based on a case you seemed okay with. You don't like the person that cased him but I can't see where you've evaluated 1) his case for flaws and 2) the context on which you are scumreading him on.
It's circular reasoning that quite frankly not only makes my head spin, but makes me wonder if you're coming up with a read for the sake of coming up with a read.
Am I making sense?
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On May 05 2015 00:51 y0su wrote:I was thinking about it at the store... I think my tone problem with -c- is that he comes off as emotional. Show nested quote +I suppose three months is long enough out to recover somewhat from the previous game. Wasn't sure I'd play again after that last one but... Show nested quote +Last game I went dormant after I lost my temper after being interrogated for like six hours straight Like I said (and was asked of me) I'm definitely re-reading the case, scott's filter and the entire thread. @ritoky appreciate you straight up calling me wrong :D I guess if this is an "all in" attempt to get a ML it wouldn't be very good d1 play cause we'd just go after -c- d2?
If you are town, you might be having the same problem as ritoky then.
I was on that very same scum team with Celestial (with sicklucker as one of our two coaches) and I can tell you exactly how emotional he was. geript, myself, etc tried to calm him down. He had mentioned he was such as both alignments. If you go to his filter in the database and then click on the # of that thread, you get the full thread for Newbie LX. In the endgame post, you can click on the mafia qt and you'll know what I mean.
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On May 05 2015 00:51 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2015 00:33 disformation wrote:On May 04 2015 21:22 -Celestial- wrote:
scott is either scum or is playing horribly scummy town. Either way he's a total liability and I would not be surprised in the slightest to see him flip red. Well, this strikes me as a bit odd as I kinda read this as "At this point I don't care if he is mafia or not". So I kinda get where y0su gets his feeling from. But I don't think that is anywhere close enough to dismiss the case or call -c- scum. Plus I agree on him more likely being scum. But this might me nice to keep on hand for the night phase. This part. It could very well come from mafia trying to set up a place to dump the blame if the lynch is sour. You're making excuses/plans before the flip has occurred; tends to happen with some1 who has no confidence in their read or is trying to shove off the blame.ALSO why you give me no credit for that "we" thing? That was totes me who found that. ROOD AS FUK!
Okay, this is a fair point. But I see this statement from both alignments.
Second question for ritoky then, as a veteran surely by now, you've seen others make the same statements from townies commenting on players who might be playing suboptimally or whose town meta is close to scum meta (think batsnacks, kushm4sta, Blazinghand, sicklucker, LightningStrike, etc).
Why is it (or do you think it is) unreasonable to imagine Celestial could be making such an observation as town? The mafia rationale makes sense, but why wouldn't the town rationale for this same statement?
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On May 05 2015 01:08 y0su wrote:
@hts, I get what I've been missing... (see my last post). If scum pushes super hard for a d1 that just leaves town with an easy d2 target. So pushing hard d1 (especially that "early") would be a town move.
Alright, fair enough. Just caught that after I posted.
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On May 05 2015 00:50 sicklucker wrote:
So we def kill scott. Then if he flips scum we def kill super. If not maybe hts? I donno this seems solid tho
I agree with you on Scott and Super, but why am I poor?
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Clearly you aren't reading the thread either SL? Or reading selectively?
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On May 05 2015 01:08 y0su wrote:
@hts, I get what I've been missing... (see my last post). If scum pushes super hard for a d1 that just leaves town with an easy d2 target. So pushing hard d1 (especially that "early") would be a town move.
On May 05 2015 01:11 y0su wrote:
based on that, (unless someone can explain why that would be wrong) -c- goes town for me.
If you aren't voting Scott at this point, then why and then whom do you think is a stronger candidate?
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On May 05 2015 01:14 Stutters695 wrote:
Prpl still missing I see.
Completely MIA today. He's only an hour ahead of me, so I'd have expected something of some sort. Shocking.
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Leaving the office. More filter diving to come, probably after dinner.
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On May 05 2015 01:19 -Celestial- wrote:Look, HtS should be an easy read later in the game. I know from the last game on the mafia side she tends to drink shots when things are going well for her side. So if things start going badly for town and HtS appears to be increasingly drunk we just lynch her then. 
ROFLMAO. I also did that in Void as mafia vanilla.
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On May 05 2015 01:26 ritoky wrote:
i like hts because she is keying into the same posts as me
i dislike hts because she is having opposite reactions to them.
I noticed this as well (opposite reactions, in the 1-2 examples I drew up) and there are reasons for this in the world that we are both town especially D1. One possible reason is knowledge of players versus lack of knowledge (Shining for instance) and second I personally try and ignore tone with people unless it's the only thing I have and even if it is, it's a weak read, and I try to keep my eyes more to other things. You also admitted earlier you need to work on looking past tone.
In the case of Shining I can see exactly why you have a different reaction to him than I did. And I highlighted that already. If you are scum, that wouldn't be the reason for it.
Even when I look at you and knowing how well you play scum, I am still trying to keep an open mind and find both town and scum rationales for your behaviour or others who I potentially have trouble figuring out. That includes the newbies.
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On May 05 2015 01:33 -Celestial- wrote:
Stutters CLAIMS that he doesn't really do day 1. Given that we have a couple of high potential lynch targets already I'm okay with not lynching him day 1 for that but I'm expecting huge things for day 2 as a result.
100%
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Now I'm out of the office. But I will be back for sure before the end of the day.
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Ritoky, if you want my input on a second target independent of Scott, I'd say Superbia is the most likely.
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On May 04 2015 05:23 Tictock wrote:
Both Superbia and The Shining made some eyebrow raising early game plays, but they appear to be contributing now and I can easily see the early game stuff being sillyness or just attempts at pressure. No real reads on them.
I'm getting pretty strong town vibes from y0su, disformation, and ritoky. I really like disformation's attempts to poke and ask questions. y0su is my weakest read of these 3, but feels like a solid town.
Everyone else... well there simply isn't enough out of prplhz or sicklucker to really go off of. Not much to go off of Stutters695 either, another person who states he "doesn't do day 1" which is pretty meh but NAI.
Pretty much all I got for now.
On May 04 2015 16:16 Tictock wrote:
I left HtS out of my earlier reads due to just joining the thread. That was awhile ago and HtS did not provide much besides some suspicions against Superbia. Getting a scum read for now until there is something to show otherwise.
As for Superbia, I'm having a hard time getting a solid read now. I was getting a scum vibe from his play the first half of D1 here but he is looking more town here near the end of the day. I want to keep an eye on him but atm he doesn't seem like a good lynch.
prplhz is looking pretty scum to me right now too. He made one post with actual content and even that was mostly an excuse as to why he isn't posting.
Scott put himself in a position where he looked pretty bad, but lately he's bee making an effort and seems fairly calm given the suspicions around him. That feels town to me, he's not ignoring what ppl say about him but he's not focused on defending himself either.
prp and HtS really need to contribute, SL and Stutters are also barely active & have contributed nothing solid thus far.
I am really curious to see what Tictock has to say on Superbia particularly on the exchange between him and Celestial if he has any input or even between that and Shining. Both disinformation and myself are also headscratching on him at the moment, and one of my issues with Superbia is that particular exchange. I realise he's partying hard (happy birthday btw!) but look forward to a response when he returns.
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Still also curious to hear from sicklucker why I'm on his lynch list as well. Don't think he's posted since he last afked.
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Shining, Superbia is a scumread for me at the moment, I am mainly trying to stress that he responds to what I had. Like I said before he's away and I'll give him reasonable time to respond. But I also take note of who has questions/concerns about whom. From my first game, I'd learnt to scumread people who are evasive or dodge questions, be it myself or someone's elses. Just because I say this doesn't mean disinformation is town (I hadn't even looked at him too closely yet) if that's what you are hinting at, because I know scum can certainly prompt each other in qt to answer each other's questions.
But if say Superbia were to respond to one of us and not the other, it would give us some room to question why. If that makes any sense.
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On May 05 2015 04:54 prplhz wrote:
okay wtf deadline is tonight
i don't know about scot31337. i got a good feeling about him pointing out that the shining was joking when other people couldn't see it. i also don't feel like lynching into some new guy for hardly any reason, did that way too much in last student mini.
actually i'd much rather lynch hts. hts pointing out last game that it was obvious we were going in the wrong direction when we lynched a new guy for the third day in a row but now she doesn't mind continuing for a fourth day in a row? i don't know the cases on scot31337 don't speak to me at all and one of them is by celestial that i also have a bad feeling about (that people don't share for some reason).
also hts is scum reading me for saying shining's entrance was super odd, but she's not scum reading the people who felt the same thing about it? FF ritoky super felt the same way, why is she picking me out of all players?
##Vote Half The Sky
1 Scott isn't new. Try again.
2 Not sure where you're getting the bolded from. Are you meta reading me? If you are, you are making a distorted comparison at best. See #1. Scott is not a new player, and certainly not in the same vein as disinformation, tictock, y0su. Did a bit of digging on y0su and he's looking okay after some questioning.
3 Final paragraph - read my filter. You said you caught up but clearly you missed that. Off one post, you were a weaker scumread and I stated that already. I had stronger scumreads in Scott and Superbia, also mentioned the latter's exchange with Shining.
If you're accusing me of having easy scumreads then clearly you haven't read my posts on Superbia. Selective reading. Good job. /end sarcasm
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EPT
