EPTTL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy - Page 48
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
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##Vote Superbia | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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On March 30 2015 07:57 Damdred wrote: I was voting bresh all day and I had him as mafia and his lack of push on LS really d1, Not good enough, Superbia was softpushing LS all D1 long so that makes no sense to value Bresh over Superbia for that. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/ylUqpSI.gif) | ||
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On March 30 2015 08:06 Breshke wrote: Yeah ive got uni know will be around later. This is confirmed fucked now because there is one outside of the PoE Not even to you is this true as it could be FF/Onegu/Ritoky. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
On March 30 2015 08:10 Vivax wrote: But actually mafia is me, Toad and Artanis and you're all fucked. ![[image loading]](http://fc03.deviantart.net/fs70/f/2013/233/a/c/bwahahahaha__by_ariintu-d6j6brf.jpg) ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/SpRtd5l.gif) | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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Artanis[Xp]
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First reason for townreading Toad is his interactions with Palmar. Out of the gates, Palmar started with "Kill Toad" and actually seriously attacked him for the way he used "Guyses" in his post. It's possible that Palmar busses, but he has a strong tendency not to, and the way he's gone about scumreading Toad, then backing off on him, then scumreading him again later and tried to lynch him up until the BM lynch came about. Toad has also gone after palmar hard + Show Spoiler [example] + On March 20 2015 01:25 Toadesstern wrote: Did you copy & paste that from someone out of Hammertime? Sure as hell feels like it... There were plenty of people who said exactly the same after Palmar ruined the thread... like how I'm fluffy and useless and they expected me to do more and I ended up getting lynched for it, which you know about as a host. I let go of Palmar for a second because SL sounded really bad. If you look at my filter you even see me going back and forth about SL, how I mention that the emoticon read is bullshit because all it does is show that he's an unintential liar no matter of alignment. And if it was unintentional no matter of alignment it's not alignment indicative, it just shows that he's a liar. And a bad player. Seems like lynchbait to me and I apologize for going after him. I should have been smarter than to let myself get fooled by people saying he's stupid and therefore mafia even if it only lasted for about an hour. I got back on Palmar because he's mafia and like I said, I lost the last games because I was too carefree as town and didn't manage to get the weight of my reads explained resulting in people not lynching mafia even after I got killed first cycle like 4 times in a row statint who's mafia and who's not. So yeah, making sure people read it. IF I AM ALREADY DEAD AND YOU'RE READING THIS BECAUSE YOU'RE GOING TROUGH MY FILTER AGAIN, MESSAGE FROM THE PAST: LYNCH PALMAR I'LL KICK YOU IN THE DICK POSTGAME IF YOU DON'T I think that should do the trick of making sure what I consider to be important after I flip funny how you mentioned how it's important to look at peoples reasoning and not just at the result just recently. But that doesn't matter if you like the results I take it? Also I know, you're going to call me mafia for "ignoring" Rayn and going after my own read instead. Also I know, you're going to call me mafia for not going after my own reads enough. You've been doing that all game long now even if I showed you that everything Palmar and you said about me is just factually incorrect Second thing that makes Toad town is obviously his Vig CC. Vivax claimed vig and Toad is instantly skeptical: On March 21 2015 05:04 Toadesstern wrote: Drax the vig, the easiest role in the game to fakeclaim as mafia. Who would have though. Really convenient, isn't it? He waits to see what happens. Damdred unvotes, other people are also skeptical of claiming our unCCed vigi and Toad hardclaims vig. On March 21 2015 05:16 Toadesstern wrote: You guys are a bunch of idiots. I'm Drax myself. Hence my vehement opposition to him claiming vig... Vivax is lying. There is absolutely no way we have two fucking Drax in the game. No way If Toad is mafia, he's sacrificing himself for a Vivax mislynch. He made the decision in about 12 minutes, so it's unlikely this was a pre-planned idea. At face value, CCing a town vig as scum is a terrible idea as you're likely to get a 1 for 1 trade at best. The play doesn't make sense for mafia to do. There is a little thing that worries me about Toad: His flip on Vivax. Toad was just as convinced that Vivax was a good lynch as I was up until deadline and the way he strongly pushed it made me feel he definitely believed in it as well, but the fact that he shot VE over Vivax is worrying because there is strong mafia motivation for it. This is how certain he was moments after the flip: On March 21 2015 08:27 Toadesstern wrote: You have been throwing shit at me for the last 5-6 hours before deadline being the biggest hypocrite I've ever seen. That's not just you being a hypocrite that's you throwing shit because you're going down (at that time) hoping that something will stick. Go back to page... I think 118, the one with the red letters about your different standards depending on wether or not it fits you. You claimed Vig. I am a TownVig. I would have said you're like 90% certain mafia before the claims. With the claim it's just really 99% certain. Too unlikely to happen. And the 1% was me admittting that you could be a fakeclaiming VT or different PR trying to get out of the lynch. You even got me to CC and I'll be RB'ed now because of you... and you're not even dead Which as the night goes on decreases in certainty, until eventually on D2 On March 22 2015 09:21 Toadesstern wrote: which is kind of my point of calling it useless. Yes they might have joined random wagons but there's no mafiaagenda behind why they joined it if it literally didn't matter to them because all 3 were town. not really... I mean it depends. It just makes no sense no matter how I look at it right now. This is where he indicates he came around to Vivax. He had been very certain of Vivax during the night still, stating there was like a 1% chance he was going to flip town and fakeclaimed and none that he flipped vigi. I know Toad explained that it was because I believe Eden (or HF?) told him to shoot VE, but meh. Continuing on with reasons I think he's town: His reads completely coincided with mine at about the same timing. On March 22 2015 09:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Toadesstern Rsoultin FecalFeast Vivax Eden1892 Damdred Trfel Onegu I'm starting to like my PoE list. On March 22 2015 10:03 Toadesstern wrote: we're running out of people that can be mafia here. That's a good thing though! thoughts on where you disagree? ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/toNtIXB.png) Be happy I made Vivax from KILL IT WITH FIRE to null. My ego isn't able to cope with more than that right now Slam I think looks really bad atm, especially if you think Vivax was town who got roleblocked and should probably be the next lynch after LS. Exo still looks bad imo. I know you guys disagree with my Palmar read but that's still a thing. I changed him back to orange because the entire theory with Palmar swapping around from Vivax to BM to save Vivax doesn't work anymore. Breshke I still havn't bothered to read. Rayn I feel like shouldn't be a topic right now with all the possible assumptions going on until we at least have an LS flip. anything you disagree with or want to chime in? I agreed exactly with all his town+ reads. Only reason he didn't have Vivax as greener was that his ego couldn't handle it. Dick move Analysis addition - I personally never keep notes as mafia but do as town so I think it also makes Toad more likely to be town for actually keeping notes like this Following this post, he's eagerly working to help solve the game. There's also a few quirky things that I wouldn't expect Mafia Toad to make like: On March 22 2015 10:53 Toadesstern wrote: go read Breshke and tell me what you think of him in the next 24 hours if you want to help. I'm very likely to either not read him at all and tell you so or lie to you and tell you I've read his filter while just banking on a gutread on him Analysis like this also helps: On March 23 2015 09:47 Toadesstern wrote: yeah but again, look at where we were at that time: Rayn was about to get lynched at that time. So you're saying it's a move to kill himself while making Onegu not look bad? I don't know about you, but after Onegu's claim that Rayn was mason with him I townread both of Onegu+Rayn heavily. maybe not as heavy as Onegu on his own but still. At least wouldn't he just shut up as mafia if they're together until the day is over, especially if he's supposedly the RB?  Basically he's keeping up very well with the thread and is attempting to solve the game. Despite the one point I raised, I feel confident in calling Toad town. If he's mafia, then he's played a great game and I'm fine with losing to him. I will not be re-evaluating him barring extreme circumstances. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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First reason is a tone thing. On March 19 2015 10:03 Trfel wrote: Like Superbia said, it would really be nice to know how many mafia are in this game. Is it 4 or 5? Does Mafia really make a point of asking this again after someone's already asked it? It's just so tonally weird that I find it hard to imagine Mafia doing it. It would've been a lot stronger if Superbia flipped mafia, but I feel it's still a towntell. Second thing I notice is confidence. On March 19 2015 09:43 Trfel wrote: You probably think I'm scum because: 1. I'm ignoring the entire thread, and instead being useless and distracting the people who are playing the game properly. This is valid. 2. If you have a reason to scumread me other than that, I think it's terrible? Are you thinking of meta based on my opening in Student Mafia V? For the record, I've only skimmed the game so far, I haven't read it in detail at all. This post also feels very town from a tonal point of view. "Scumreading me for these reasons is okay, scumreading me for anything else is terrible." It showcases a confidence that I don't think Trfel is the type to fake. Also not attempting to bury people who have flipped town: On March 19 2015 11:03 Trfel wrote: You asked for an answer twice, so I provided one. Eden isn't a moron, I'm sure that if he actually is scum, he would say the same thing. And I have two other reasons to say that this isn't a scumslip. 1. Look at Eden's tone. By saying the specific name of the miller, he shows that he's read the first page to find out what the miller is, which contains the phrase You are not aware. So, it's extremely unlikely that Eden didn't know that the miller was unaware. Furthermore, if he wanted to claim as scum, he would have said straight-out that he is claiming, not this indirect reference. Thus, I'm inclined to think that Eden is joking. 2. Eden townread rsoultin very strongly, and very early in the game. And he did this knowing that he wouldn't be able to provide good reasons for it, much less explain this read to the thread. I don't really see why mafia!Eden would want to do this. Doesn't bury Slam: On March 19 2015 12:58 Trfel wrote: One thing that makes Alakaslam suspicious is that he does seem fairly defensive early on. But I don't necessarily think that makes him mafia here? In Down Under 2, Alakaslam was wagoned for most of Day 1, but never actually defended himself. He was scum. Perhaps aggressively defending himself is a sign of being town? And I am well aware that I am both ignoring and using meta on Alakaslam simultaneously. Deal with it. Then there's obviously his orb claim, tracking a mafia LS. Since we know Palmar was part of the mafia team, unless mafia believed that Rayn was indeed a tracker (in which case Ritoky is town), I doubt they'd be worried about a track and would simply let Palmar take the credit. Trfel's not known for having the strongest scumgame and I don't think they would sacrifice LS just for his cred. At this point, I'm happy to call Trfel town and resign to losing the game if he is not. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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First reason to call Vivax town is his 37-page filter. The only time he's reached anything remotely similar was in Imperial as town, and even there he didn't have this pace. As Mafia, his biggest filter was a 13-Page filter by D5. As town, his filters average much larger than as mafia and I think it already makes him quite likely to be town. Second reason to call Vivax town is the fact that he claimed Vigilante and stuck with it even after a counterclaim. I did a quick search on Vivax though and it turns out it isn't an ironclad reason as he has fakeclaimed miller in Normal Ass Normal Game and someone in that game said Vivax was known for fakeclaiming as scum (something I wasn't aware of). Nevertheless, the effort he's put into the game leading up to N1 and then continuing leads me to believe he's likely town specifically because of the first reason I've mentioned. Additional reasons for wanting to call Vivax town are his paranoia. As town, Vivax has, to put it in a friendly manner, "fluid" reads. They change at the drop of a hat. He's also very specific in what made him change his mind and pushes it hard. In both Storm and Normal Ass, a TON of his posts quote others and ask them questions. In contrast, in Imperial he just threw in his own observations everywhere. Same in Void. This game resembles both of those games a lot if you look through his filter this game. Vivax is paranoid, has tons of tin foil theories, changes his reads at the drop of a hat and is sending more than he's questioning. He's also posting a lot, which all fits with his town meta. Vivax Town and I'm sticking with it for the rest of the game. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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I think he's town but it's the weakest read of the bunch. The main reason he's town is because he shot Palmar, but it's a really good reason because would Mafia sicklucker risk using the orb on Mafia Palmar just to gain cred? It's possible but very unlikely. Additionally, little nuggets like this On March 20 2015 23:07 sicklucker wrote: tbh me making sense has more to do with my mood then my alignment make me feel that tonally, he's more likely to be town. The way he also got pissed at people reading him as mafia is something I haven't really seen from him. If he rolled mafia AGAIN after rolling it like 4 times running or something, I think he'd be a lot more okay with getting lynched. This actually leans more credit to the theory that sicklucker is town because I really don't think he of all people would be the mafia player to take the credit for shooting Palmar. He's complained about carrying mafia teams before and I think he'd leave it to another mafia player to take the credit. His interaction with Breshke also felt genuine. Strong townreading him for finally reading him 'correctly' after failing to do so in numerous other games is something I think town SL would find very important, whereas Mafia SL wouldn't put as much value on it as he knew it'd be false. Him claiming he knew exactly who was truly mason and who wasn't and all that stuff also feels like typical SL being more focused on being right. Also, dumb reason: I just scrolled through two of his most recent mafia games on the DB and I never saw him call mafia actions/kills dumb. I'm quite sure that Sicklucker is town but not completely. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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I'll look into Damdred tonight when Toad's around. I'd also like to see someone analyze me and/or comment on my towncases. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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SL is town not only for shooting Palmar but because he didn't believe me and HF were masons posted so in thread and me and HF still got shot. I'm pretty sure he only mentioned that after the shot though, so that doesn't hold too much water. Trfel is where I would put As your SL, like how can you say a mafia SL could chance a shot on palmar who is a better player but trfel couldn't chance it on LS? It's the same argument for both players. I just think the rest of Trfel's filter shows a very townie mindset whereas I can pick a few things in SL's filter I think are also townie but am not as convinced in as Trfel. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
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I just really think Trfel is town. In his one scumgame I looked at he only really defends himself and goes after people he thinks are scum. I don't see him spending much time on townreads at all, so that contrasts with this game. He seems to be actively trying to figure the game out. | ||
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