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On March 28 2015 00:35 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2015 00:31 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 28 2015 00:23 Vivax wrote:
I don't read anything into the fuck you're town,except that Fecal didn't seem happy to say it? Here's how I see it. Mafia already know who's town and who's scum so they don't really come into a sudden insight. Town definitely can, and it feels like as he was reading he came to this realization. That's how the whole exchange felt to me. except that this is a text based forum and not voice mafia. No matter how you look at it that post can not have been sudden and he has done it at least somewhat intentionally. He can come to a sudden insight as town but that that doesn't mean he has to make a post like that because by nature of doing that it's not sudden anymore and he's going through what he's going to type out at. The post is at best slightly townish because it shows willingness to open up his state of mind. The rest about it is just whatever.
If you post in a stream of consciousness as I usually do and you type fast, it's pretty much instant. I regularly post things that come up to me without thinking about it. That's how that felt to me too.
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Is there anyone currently tring Rayn/Ritoky? If so I'd like to hear reasons because I haven't really looked into the slot since I decided that Palmar's interactions with him looked good on him and there was something else but then people showed that it's entirely possible that Palmar interacted with him in that way since he never actually pushed him.
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On March 28 2015 00:51 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2015 00:38 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 28 2015 00:35 Toadesstern wrote:On March 28 2015 00:31 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 28 2015 00:23 Vivax wrote:
I don't read anything into the fuck you're town,except that Fecal didn't seem happy to say it? Here's how I see it. Mafia already know who's town and who's scum so they don't really come into a sudden insight. Town definitely can, and it feels like as he was reading he came to this realization. That's how the whole exchange felt to me. except that this is a text based forum and not voice mafia. No matter how you look at it that post can not have been sudden and he has done it at least somewhat intentionally. He can come to a sudden insight as town but that that doesn't mean he has to make a post like that because by nature of doing that it's not sudden anymore and he's going through what he's going to type out at. The post is at best slightly townish because it shows willingness to open up his state of mind. The rest about it is just whatever. If you post in a stream of consciousness as I usually do and you type fast, it's pretty much instant. I regularly post things that come up to me without thinking about it. That's how that felt to me too. but I'd say even if the situation is him being town, in that situation he's doing it on purpose for comedic reasons, which is why I meant it's about wether it's that or him trying to look like he's changing reads. It's not like you think a lot about it, but you come to a realization which, given the situation, makes you laugh out because it was a shitty one for him and the change of mind itself would have been somewhat sudden (there probably was a lead-up to it but it felt sudden). And you jokingly deal with it that way mentally. I'd still not call it something sudden unless it's voice or video mafia. At least that's what it's like for me when I make posts like that.
I feel like this is semantics though (regarding the word "sudden"). Sure, the way he delivered it was comedic, but it felt genuine in that I can recognize myself coming to such a realization as well, and that I find it much easier to imagine such a thing as town than as mafia.
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You can post it in the 20 min that actions can no longer be changed Toad.
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On March 28 2015 03:06 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2015 02:51 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
You can post it in the 20 min that actions can no longer be changed Toad. I can give you an update of my sheet, I'm still working by PoE and feel fairly confident that there's at most 5 people that can be mafia. Last 20 minutes havn't really been working for me the last couple days ever since I changed my sleep schedule to get used to waking up earlier again, thus waking up at 5am and not usually staying up until 24:00.
Solid sleep schedule.
But yeah, I feel if we can eliminate Damdred from the lynch pool we've got PoE. I'm quite confident none of my other townreads have a realistic chance of being scum.
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Also a point against Super and Ritoky is that they both went after candidates outside of the PoE quite hard which serves a mafia agenda as if we're collectively right the only way mafia can win is if one of the six becomes a candidate.
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On March 28 2015 04:59 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2015 00:42 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Is there anyone currently tring Rayn/Ritoky? If so I'd like to hear reasons because I haven't really looked into the slot since I decided that Palmar's interactions with him looked good on him and there was something else but then people showed that it's entirely possible that Palmar interacted with him in that way since he never actually pushed him. Im townreading ritoky - If mafias who you think it is ritoky would not put this much effort in tbh because that team looks pretty fried. I townread rayn all game its all in my filter he called out 3 of the known mafia team in his list of 5 rayn would never bus like that on day1
Some people just always put in effort. I actually wouldn't put Ritoky in that category though, but Ritoky hasn't actually tried that hard since the day he came in.
Also I have some thoughts but I'm leaving them for EoN.
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Alright, so thought:
8v3 means that a no kill doesn't actually gain us a lynch. If I'm right on my PoE mafia need to get one person into the lynch pool. It's possible that a scum player will claim to have used the orb on Damdred or myself and have them no kill, then claim they roleblocked me or dammy.
Not sure if it's a Vivax tier thought or not.
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Well I'm kinda glad that my thought didn't happen though it would've been nice to have Eden around.
RIP medic dodge.
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Ctrl-F Damdred in Ritoky's filter, 90 results.
Ctrl-F Onegu, 46 results.
Ctrl-F Breshke, 28 results.
Ctrl-F Superbia, 22 results.
Ctrl-F Fecal, 22 results.
Ritoky seems much more concerned with going after Damdred than finding out who's mafia in the PoE group, which COULD be town but if I'm right it also really serves a mafia agenda. I'm fine with lynching him today. Also ok with Superbia.
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Toad, Mafia didn't know who the vigis wanted to shoot as you've said before (though it's not that relevant for the rest of the analysis). I agree that it's likely mafia wanted to keep both vigis alive for the exact situation that occured though.
As for them preferring a vigi lynch to secure the other vigi lynch the next day I'm not sure I agree with that conclusion. As things went, the day was set to argue a lot about the vigi claims as well as the RB. I believe that would cloud the discussion on Rayn a lot. I also think that shooting someone that suspects you reduces your chances of getting lynched rather than increases. Sure, we read HF, but that influence fades quite quickly. Slam was also a very viable mislynch going into D2. Mafia had enough mislynch leads leading into D2.
Somethingthly, by the time the switch from Vivax to BM started occurring Rayn was already far out of reach for a lynch so I don't really buy that as an argument either.
All that said I don't really care whom from Ritoky and Superbia we lynch first, I'm quite sold on both of them being scum and if you want Superbia first that's fine with me.
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I just don't think Rayn was the obvious D2 lynch if the orb thing didn't happen that you might think it was, which means your argument doesn't hold that much water.
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No, Eden organized town in a way that no one else has. You saw how after the way I interacted with Superbia and ended up backing off on him, Eden came in and drew the logical conclusions I didn't make at the time. He had a good overhead view that mafia obviously wanted out of the game. I expected Eden to be the kill tbh.
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On March 29 2015 02:23 Toadesstern wrote:yeah same. Was pretty sure Eden would get killed. That aside Breshke might not look as good as I thought he did He was the 3rd last on BM on D1 with everything being Show nested quote +On March 21 2015 07:33 Breshke wrote:
I am also backing your plan HF. Also superbia easy townread now
I,ll end up switching to BM because i like the plan more but i have no fuckin idea on that guy. Why not SL instead? I think I gave him a slight townread earlier because I read that as " Why not SL instead?" as LS and not SL... just took a look at wether he ever put his vote down that way, he never did and then realized he's talking about SL and not LS lol
I never thought Breshke looked good for what he posted, but rather for how he posted. Did my meta a while ago. It's possible he's adapted a bit though, and I saw some hints of the scum aggression and certainty at points throughout this game, but I don't think he's a better lynch over Superbia/Ritoky today.
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On March 29 2015 08:01 Fecalfeast wrote:
Well, here's where I'm at.
Artanis has his poe which, while alakaslam was alive, was 67%+ incorrect. Now that it is down to myself, you(super), ritoky, I am concerned that since most people seem to agree at least somewhat on that list of people, we are setting ourselves up to lose. If we lynch you or ritoky and it's a miss, I feel like it's going to come down to mislynching me.
I read onegu and while I got scummy vibes from his filter I understand the logic of people calling him town. I then started playing video games and didn't stop until 4am.
So to answer your question, idk
A lot of people agreeing on a list of people for poe does not mean that the list is wrong, especially when most people in the list seems to be flailing wildly to find people outside of the list to lynch, even when the people inside of the list could very easily be mafia.
My PoE has 5 people in it now. Breshke, you, Superbia, Ritoky, and Onegu. Where are you at for all of these people and why?
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You're allowed to scumread yourself if you're scum btw but it might not be wise.
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I want to kill Onegu the least out of the 5 atm.
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On March 29 2015 09:25 sicklucker wrote:
Why is that. Like hes just trolling us
Confirmed town thing looked genuine, find it hard to believe mafia onegu claimed mason from the get go. He also isn't really pushing any scum objectives from what I can see.
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On March 29 2015 09:29 ritoky wrote:
if scum has orb and in PoE group, wouldn't it be in scum's interest to claim the orb post night phase to try and use it as a mechanism to buy cred? or claim you had orb and got rb'd? would that gain them anything....hrm...
I already brought up orb wifom things during EoN, could've scared scum off from claiming anything if they had the orb.
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Anyway my carpet bomb strategy prefers Ritoky going all out on figuring Damdred out then lynching Ritoky and seeing if there's any reason to worry. This is further bolstered by the fact that Ritoky first agreed, then (if scum) realized that he'd have to flip scum for it, flips his thoughts and flips his read on me on something that is pretty much null (I'm pretty sure he had a townread on me until that point), asks Vivax about the plan (why Vivax specifically?) and flips his tunnel on Damdred (90 mentions) entirely.
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EPT
