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TL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy - Page 34

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Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 00:50 GMT
#6817
Dammy I just pointed out a post of Breshke I like. What do you dislike about him?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 00:51 GMT
#6820
On March 26 2015 09:50 Damdred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 09:32 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Also just wanted to say I really liked this post from a tone perspective.
On March 26 2015 08:45 Breshke wrote:
On March 26 2015 08:31 Fecalfeast wrote:
Well, eden could start figuring out what went wrong in his analysis of me before I flip town so that there's more to work with afterward.
Actually it'd be really cool if I could help with that! Who would be your top suspects if I flipped town eden?

I looked at breshke. I want to call him scum for not hardly interacting with LS or palmar, as well as for using the nightkill wifom to implicate me. I don't want to call him scum because he had palmar as scummy and because his tone feels more like a town who is busy to me.


I've also hardly interacted with a few players it looks like. Like if you look at a few of edens lists he leaves me of completely numerous times. I also think i havn't interacted with art or toad much.

About the nightkill stuff. The way i see it there is two situations.

1. They RB rso (most likely)
2. They RB sl (less likely)

In situation 2 you are the scum rb'r because your rb would have been disrupted by rso's. This is the less likely situation though.

as tinfoily as this sounds there might not even be a roleblocker in the game and it could have been confirmed if there was or not if rso jailed exo but she had her reasons for doing what she did and that's that. Hindsight is 20/20. I think id be town reading vivax without his vig claim so it matters even less.

He seems really not worried about "incriminating" himself by instantly stating the "hardly interacted with a few players" thing. The no RB thing also seems to come a little bit out of the leftfield. I find it extremely doubtful that there isn't a RB for scum given all the blue roles and that a RB for scum is pretty standard anyway, but that makes it that much less likely that a scummer would actually think of suggesting so.


I dont understand, this just seems like something that is impossible being spewed

Yes but it's the kind of thing I can't fathom scum coming up with. Also the first thing holds true.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 00:52 GMT
#6821
On March 26 2015 09:51 Alakaslam wrote:
If i remove myself from bias and look at my position I recognize that scumreading me is only a little aggressive. Null reading should be natural.

Vivax and Eden are objectively townie, although, I strongly believe I have privelidge to believe Vivax is scum. They agree on FF, I want to hear from FF and for now am voting him.

I have been nullreading you since pretty much the start. Why did you put me in a scumteam?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 00:57 GMT
#6826
On March 26 2015 09:55 Damdred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 09:51 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
On March 26 2015 09:50 Damdred wrote:
On March 26 2015 09:32 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Also just wanted to say I really liked this post from a tone perspective.
On March 26 2015 08:45 Breshke wrote:
On March 26 2015 08:31 Fecalfeast wrote:
Well, eden could start figuring out what went wrong in his analysis of me before I flip town so that there's more to work with afterward.
Actually it'd be really cool if I could help with that! Who would be your top suspects if I flipped town eden?

I looked at breshke. I want to call him scum for not hardly interacting with LS or palmar, as well as for using the nightkill wifom to implicate me. I don't want to call him scum because he had palmar as scummy and because his tone feels more like a town who is busy to me.


I've also hardly interacted with a few players it looks like. Like if you look at a few of edens lists he leaves me of completely numerous times. I also think i havn't interacted with art or toad much.

About the nightkill stuff. The way i see it there is two situations.

1. They RB rso (most likely)
2. They RB sl (less likely)

In situation 2 you are the scum rb'r because your rb would have been disrupted by rso's. This is the less likely situation though.

as tinfoily as this sounds there might not even be a roleblocker in the game and it could have been confirmed if there was or not if rso jailed exo but she had her reasons for doing what she did and that's that. Hindsight is 20/20. I think id be town reading vivax without his vig claim so it matters even less.

He seems really not worried about "incriminating" himself by instantly stating the "hardly interacted with a few players" thing. The no RB thing also seems to come a little bit out of the leftfield. I find it extremely doubtful that there isn't a RB for scum given all the blue roles and that a RB for scum is pretty standard anyway, but that makes it that much less likely that a scummer would actually think of suggesting so.


I dont understand, this just seems like something that is impossible being spewed

Yes but it's the kind of thing I can't fathom scum coming up with. Also the first thing holds true.


Honestly disagree. Why wpud scum lie in this situation when all they have to say is I haven't interacted with tons of people. The fact remains after pinging ls out at an odd juncture ls barely interacted any and palmar totally ignored bresh.

Tthe problems lie both ways not just one

It's the tone that's important here. He didn't look for excuses, he just straight up said it, then moved on to the rest of his post.

When did he ping out LS exactly? Haven't looked into that yet. Also Palmar didn't really interact with a lot of people since he spent most of the game talking about non-game related things or Toad/Rayn.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 00:58 GMT
#6827
On March 26 2015 09:57 Alakaslam wrote:
Why is Vivax claim assumed to be true? Why is a blue heavy setup assumed?

Because Vivax has played way beyond his scum capacity in terms of both posting frequency and tin foil hat theories to be scum.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 01:00 GMT
#6829
On March 26 2015 09:59 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 09:58 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
On March 26 2015 09:57 Alakaslam wrote:
Why is Vivax claim assumed to be true? Why is a blue heavy setup assumed?

Because Vivax has played way beyond his scum capacity in terms of both posting frequency and tin foil hat theories to be scum.

And I have posted way less c word and h word to be town.

No, this meta bullshit isn't going to fly.

You can call it meta bullshit if you wish. It's 99.99% likely to be true.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 01:03 GMT
#6831
Why so hostile, Slam?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 01:06 GMT
#6835
On March 26 2015 10:04 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 10:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Why so hostile, Slam?

Because being pissed is generally better than this cold unreasonable sudden sadness, not going there, and I have a lot of reason to be pissed anyway

But I have done nothing to antagonize you. I simply believe my reason for townreading Vivax is highly likely to be correct. What are you looking for from me exactly?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 01:09 GMT
#6839
On March 26 2015 10:07 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 10:06 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
On March 26 2015 10:04 Alakaslam wrote:
On March 26 2015 10:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Why so hostile, Slam?

Because being pissed is generally better than this cold unreasonable sudden sadness, not going there, and I have a lot of reason to be pissed anyway

But I have done nothing to antagonize you. I simply believe my reason for townreading Vivax is highly likely to be correct. What are you looking for from me exactly?

Oh I am equal opportunity pissed, you should see the blue fire i hissed at Vivax and eden

That doesn't really answer my question. What do you want me to say so that this conversation can actually become productive?
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 01:17 GMT
#6846
On March 26 2015 10:11 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 10:09 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
On March 26 2015 10:07 Alakaslam wrote:
On March 26 2015 10:06 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
On March 26 2015 10:04 Alakaslam wrote:
On March 26 2015 10:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Why so hostile, Slam?

Because being pissed is generally better than this cold unreasonable sudden sadness, not going there, and I have a lot of reason to be pissed anyway

But I have done nothing to antagonize you. I simply believe my reason for townreading Vivax is highly likely to be correct. What are you looking for from me exactly?

Oh I am equal opportunity pissed, you should see the blue fire i hissed at Vivax and eden

That doesn't really answer my question. What do you want me to say so that this conversation can actually become productive?

It doesn't actually need to continue. You can be any alignment and find Vivax town because it makes general sense.

I know that TL scumteam are smart enough to be unconventional. How do we have two vigilante just strikes me as less likely than one got away with a fakeclaim somehow and has been running with it since.

I think you highly overestimate Vivax' capabilities as mafia if you believe he can be mafia this game. I find that much less likely than us having two vigis.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 01:32 GMT
#6857
I just realized Breshke only has 6 pages of filter. Looking at some of his other towngames this really worries me. In Horn he's had 16 pages by D3. In Student he was about this pace as town but Student only totaled 128 pages whereas this one is up to 343.

Gotta look into him a bit more I guess
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 01:34 GMT
#6858
On March 26 2015 10:30 Trfel wrote:
Artanis, why do you think that Onegu is town?

While this post failed to account for Onegu's read on rsoultin and the fact that Onegu has a soul read on raynpelikoneet, I think it is correct in that there is no real downside for mafia fake-claiming vigilante, and there is incentive to do so.

I did some meta reading.
On March 25 2015 23:42 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Okay there's something in Onegu's tone I noticed in Neat & Tidy (mafia) that struck my eye because it felt very un-Oneguish.
Show nested quote +
On August 20 2014 13:41 Onegu wrote:
Yeah its not me never has been.

Rayn is the only thing that makes sense. He played me all game and I was wrong thinking I could read him.

Guys please dig my filter and realize its not me. If you fools want to know the reason its not me 100%, I have rolled scum I believe 7 times, of those 7 times I have won 2. A newbie and when I was paired with Marv and Sylencia. In most of the other games rayn it was you who had me pinned as mafia day 1/2 for legit reasons.

The only thing that stuck in my craw yesterday about rayn and makeing me feel he is scum today besides PoE. Is this, i push kush yesterday, rayn then comes into the thread throws his vote on kush, I follow with my vote. He then asks why I feel kush is mafia even though I have already given it, rayn even though voteing kush never gives his reason for voteing kush until late in the day after being pushed for it.

There's something that feels very defeatist about this, and it's formulated in a way very differently to how Onegu said he's fine with getting lynched this game. It feels more... theatrical, like he has to put on a show. Onegu this game has not felt like he's putting on a show at all. I think I'm going to go with town onegu for now.


Also Palmar seemingly committing on Onegu if he doesn't claim (which, if Onegu is mafia, Palmar already knows Onegu can't/won't do) is also an argument in his favour.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 01:41 GMT
#6859
Okay after checking Breshke's scumgames he seems much more aggressive in them, calling people out and being very certain of himself which is in contrast to both his last two towngames and this game so he goes into townpile.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 01:48 GMT
#6860
On March 25 2015 02:26 Vivax wrote:
So Artanis pretends he'd scumread Palmar or Slam based on his PoE but watch how he starts doing other stuff during the day.

My prediction is that if Onegu finally hard claims he's going hard on superbia, keeps pushing the notion that Trfel hard bussed LS, or is going to keep picking on ritoky.

Mark my words.

0/3
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 01:50 GMT
#6861
Could turn into 1/3 tho depending on what happens when I filter Superbia tomorrow.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 01:54 GMT
#6862
Actually with all my townreads it has to be exactly Slam/Superbia/Fecal by PoE. Interesting.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 01:59 GMT
#6865
On March 26 2015 10:56 Trfel wrote:
Artanis, I've heard from a very experienced and capable mafia player that process of elimination is not advisable when there are lots of players still alive in the game.

Thoughts?

It makes sense. With 13 people there are 10 that are town and 3 mafia, meaning any slot has 77% chance of being town. It's much harder to go from 77% town to 95%+ town on 10 slots than it is to go to ~50% mafia on one slot. However, with the way the game has gone and all the blueclaims and orbs, I feel it's landed us much closer to a situation where PoE is possible. SL and you are confirmed through orb usage, Toad/Vivax through how the claim went down, and Eden through general gameplay. Taking out myself, that knocks it down to 7 slots in which 3 are mafia. Suddenly, PoE becomes a lot stronger.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 02:03 GMT
#6868
On March 26 2015 11:01 Trfel wrote:
Hm, I disagree with the Onegu town read. Maybe there's something you're seeing in his tone that I'm not.

Artanis, why are you townreading raynpelikoneet/ritoky again?

Palmar went after him quite hard throughout D1 and Palmar generally doesn't bus. Ritoky in general has played pretty well since subbing in too. He's kinda falling off again though.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 02:14 GMT
#6870
On March 26 2015 11:13 Trfel wrote:
Does Palmar really never bus? I find that hard to believe. And unreliable, since eventually he's going to bus someone.

I'm sure he busses sometimes, but I find it doubtful he'd start out with a shitfight on Rayn of all people as scum on scum.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
March 26 2015 11:13 GMT
#6897
I like Eden's list. I kinda wanna lynch Superbia first and hope he's scum just to force Vivax to shut up, though he'd probably find some theory in which it's a bus.
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