EPTMini Mafia Down Under 2 - Page 61
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
 I'll post my reasons tomorrow, but I think it's fairly solid. I'd rather go with this than some tinfoil hat theory about ritoky outplaying everyone else in the game as scum, or Onegu getting extremely lucky and gambling that town only has one power role, or rsoultin bussing Alakaslam from so early on. There are several reasons for this. One is process of elimination, but that is somewhat weak. So looking at voting analysis, Oatsmaster and MysteryMeat1 generally voted late and non-committed, except for their combined push on Robik. MysteryMeat1's filter showed some strange reads of Oatsmaster. One thing of note is his early pressure vote, four hours from end of day, which was quickly retracted. By that time, Superbia had only marginally more posts than Oatsmaster, so it is somewhat suspicious that Oatsmaster was singled out while Superbia was ignored entirely. Then, MysteryMeat1 provided a reads post not including Oatsmaster, but added a read on Oatsmaster in an updated list post seven minutes later. Note how Oatsmaster ended up in the scum category, but MysteryMeat1's deliberate explanation of this read seemed to waffle and not end up in a solid scumread. It feels overjustified. Oatsmaster has also been deliberate with his reads towards MysteryMeat1. In addition, both of them have been constantly scumreading each other. But, they have never seriously pushed each other. In a broken game like this, I would expect mafia to just distance and watch town kill themselves, and that seems shown here. But they never, ever, pushed each other seriously. Regardless of the night kill, Onegu is almost certainly town here. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
MysteryMeat1 MysteryMeat1's reads have been inconsistent On March 03 2015 12:04 MysteryMeat1 wrote: MysteryMeat1 provides a townread of rsoultin. However, about 30 minutes before, he was suspicious of rsoultin.It could be too early in the day but I think that if he was mafia he would have taken a more definite side between us. However instead of pushing a lynch onto one of us he's switching it to someone he thinks is mafia. Town read! On March 03 2015 11:36 MysteryMeat1 wrote: My phone is about to die but with a quick glance tHrough Rsoul filter I'm not a huge fan On March 03 2015 09:58 MysteryMeat1 wrote: A townread of Robik.T.T I like robik, snickers, and palmar for now. WE should lynch the purple guy. Its annoying how he counts his posts. On March 04 2015 04:23 MysteryMeat1 wrote: Another townread of Robik. Then he sheeps Robik as his reason for voting for prphlz.Lol Robik has to be town. He begs me to play this game then calls me scum d1 On March 06 2015 12:13 MysteryMeat1 wrote: Later, this read changes to town.Mafia: Robik, he usually reads me fairly well even with my shit play, I know i haven't been as active and he hasn't been really pushing on me, but he's a mafia sided lean. On March 08 2015 14:20 MysteryMeat1 wrote: But Robik was constantly scumreading MysteryMeat1, which was the reason that he was scumread by MysteryMeat1. These read changes were later justified here.well then i think robik is town for what its worth On March 08 2015 15:40 MysteryMeat1 wrote: The initial townread of Robik makes sense, however the reason for scumreading Robik changed. MysteryMeat1 scumread Robik for scumreading himself when Robik should have known better. And if Robik and MysteryMeat1 know each other well, the described time it took MysteryMeat1 to realize that Robik's play actually was his town play wouldn't exist. This post actually makes no sense at all explaining this.As you know I have taken quite the haitus from playing forum mafia. It's a lot of fun but i'm really terrible and it takes waaay too much time to play during school. I work 15 hours a week, go to school full time (double majoring), do research for a professor, and volunteer. However robik messages me on skype and goes I wanna play mafia with you so i'm like aight. For Robik to come out d1 and says he has a scum read on me means that he actually thinks im scum and not a mafia pushing a ml. Thats why I initially townread him for it. However as you know robiks play is usually a lot more involved which set off a few red flags for me. However I realized robik is a bastard and would totes mcgoats do that. Now I'm claiming ogi and saying robik is town. If i had to judge on a scale of 1-10 how town robik is in each of those posts it would go. 8, 4, 5, 3, 8. It was a moment of weakness but i'm really basing my read off of OGI and the fact that i've played DM with robik a bit. It's basically a selfish read but I think he's town. On March 07 2015 03:42 MysteryMeat1 wrote: I'm fine with lynching super over robik On March 08 2015 14:53 MysteryMeat1 wrote: Just because Superbia posted one list post in between. His logic on three players made a comfortable lynch change into really not liking that lynch? I also note that Superbia's three reads mentioned were Oatsmaster, MysteryMeat1, and Robik. MysteryMeat1 is effectively saying that he liked the logic for reading Oatsmaster as town and Robik as mafia, while he himself continued to read Oatsmaster as mafia and soon switched to reading Robik as town (after which he still said he liked Superbia's logic for his read on Robik).I really didn't like the superbia lynch, for his logic when it came to oats, robik, and I. I also agreed with the gut read on snickers. Throughout the game, MysteryMeat1 has shown a weird level of justification of his plays. Some of his reads and actions were left completely unjustified, or made as jokes. However, others were heavily explained after the fact, when they were commented on. And still some actions were explained in detail as they were made. These differences seem very interesting, and it makes MysteryMeat1 feel very self-conscious. One more interesting point is MysteryMeat1's day 1 voting. He initially voted for Oatsmaster as a pressure vote, and then with about three hours left, he asked Robik if he should vote for prplhz or stay on Oatsmaster. Note that MysteryMeat1 has never once mentioned Alakaslam or his wagon, and doesn't leave that as an option. And this places most of the blame on Robik, instead of himself. Oatsmaster On March 04 2015 13:10 Oatsmaster wrote: Really? This didn't seem obvious to a lot of people. Myself included. I don't think anyone was solidly townreading prplhz.Ive been completely neglecting this game, but anyone who knows how to read can see that Prp was town. What the fuck guys. I also notice that his activity significantly drops off after he starts playing enough to be less suspected for activity. Oatsmaster has by far the shortest filter in the game, and his only main contribution was the first push in Robik. After Superbia was lynched, Oatsmaster said that the lynch felt a lot like a town vs town lynch. But he didn't do anything to stop it, and was yelling for Robik's head the entire time. Then on Day 3, Oatsmaster's vote on Snickers comes first, and then his filter turns to be scumreading Snickers quite strongly. Oatsmaster placed this vote when three votes were on Snickers already, and he had barely mentioned Snickers before this (and not in a way that provided any indication as to his read on Snickers). Furthermore, Oatsmaster had been comfortable with reading MysteryMeat1 as scum before this, but this read was dropped entirely once he jumped to the Snickers wagon. Why MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster are scum together On March 04 2015 03:38 MysteryMeat1 wrote: This is MysteryMeat1's first mention of Oatsmaster, about four and a half hours before the lynch deadline. As a pressure vote, this feels mostly worthless, being so late to the deadline. At this point, Oatsmaster had voted for Palmar and asked a question. Meanwhile, Superbia had also been away for a significant period of time, and he had claimed town, voted Palmar, and asked three questions. So there isn't much difference between the two. But MysteryMeat1 pressure votes Oatsmaster without ever mentioning Superbia.##Vote: Oatsmaster Hi oats, gimme some love On March 06 2015 12:13 MysteryMeat1 wrote: Here is MysteryMeat1's first list post. Note that MysteryMeat1 is somewhat suspected at this point for the vote switch to prplhz. MysteryMeat1 says that he placed his pressure vote on Oatsmaster with four and a half hours left in the day, but then realized that it was too late to do this as a pressure vote, so he switched to prphlz... a whole half hour before the deadline. This doesn't make sense. Also, MysteryMeat1 provides explanation for his reads here, explanation that hasn't been seen in his play to this point. This coincides with increased suspicion on himself.So funny story robik, I actually came into 1000$ in scam money, had to call the police and talk to them. It was pretty exhausting. I voted on prplhz cause I didnt have a good read on slam, I also thought robik was softing a power role or something and probably didn't even know if snickers was town or mafia and tried to frame him for the lolz. Like I said earlier I thought it was weird that rsoul had told prp that he was lacking a reaction and then blew up out of no where really. I was going to place my vote on prp regardless but decided to place it on oats to see if he would say something, however I believe when i placed the vote there was only like 4 hours left and I realized that was too late to pressure someone so i switched it to prp. At the time i was reading snickers and robik as town. As for town reads: Snickers trfel ritoky rsoul Mafia: Robik, he usually reads me fairly well even with my shit play, I know i haven't been as active and he hasn't been really pushing on me, but he's a mafia sided lean. Onegu - Seems very lynch happy This next section is pretty wifom: If i was mafia: I would probably push a lynch on me or robik. If you wanted to deal with robik then you could probably push on him for his activity and then the 'fake' yelling that he got a warning for. Even easier than that would be me, I've never been mafia and I suck at all town roles. im going back to reading On March 06 2015 12:20 MysteryMeat1 wrote: Seven minutes later, MysteryMeat1 provides an updated list post. I find it interesting how he added Oatsmaster in the "Mafia" category, while having just completely dismissed his vote on Oatsmaster as a pressure vote. Here, he explains his scumread of Oatsmaster, saying he "could be mafia" and that the reason for scumreading Oatsmaster is that he didn't play very much last game, when he was mafia, and didn't play very much in this game. This explanation seems wishy-washy, and doesn't result in a hard scumread like MysteryMeat1 provided. MysteryMeat1 basically spent three lines explaining "Oatsmaster is mafia because he has barely been posting".also the other people I forgot to mention, I'm fine with damdred and just doing a quick look through super's filter it seemed like there was justification for his vote on prp and then tried to not get slam shot. Oats is oats and could be mafia, I think the last game we played together was cell which was basically me and HF being bitches to each other for like 300 posts and he turned out to be mafia. Hwever in that game iirc he didn't really play that much and he hasn' been playing a lot this game so he's a mafia lean I'd probably put robik in the nuetral with a very slight scum lean so for the recap Town: Snickers tfel ritoky rsoul Neutral Town: Damdred Neutral Mafia Robik Mafia oats super On March 05 2015 17:47 Oatsmaster wrote: This is a scumread of MysteryMeat1, based on what Oatsmaster does before (saying that prplhz's wagon was scum and Alakaslam's wagon was town) and after (pushing Robik).yeah feeling pretty good about robik and MM. From here, the Day 2 voting gets more active, and MysteryMeat1 never mentions Oatsmaster again. He only mentions Superbia and Robik, and seems to be willing to vote for either. And Oatsmaster was one of MysteryMeat's strongest scumreads before this. On March 08 2015 14:53 MysteryMeat1 wrote: So, MysteryMeat1 really didn't want to lynch Superbia because of three reads he provided, including a townread of Oatsmaster. But, MysteryMeat1 is putting Oatsmaster pretty high on his scum list, and including him in his scum team in the very same post.robik, oats, and I all thought that one of the other two were scum. I'm fairly certain robik is town so based on that I would put oats pretty high up on my scum list. BS reason but idc. I'm suprised no one has really been hard pushing me after damdred died. From my perspective that nk was set up to get me mislynched. I really didn't like the superbia lynch, for his logic when it came to oats, robik, and I. I also agreed with the gut read on snickers. Fun Fact* The first game (maybe second game) I played with snickers I got lynched the first thing i did was mesage chairman ray on skype and was like you and snickers are mafia. I think that there is at least one scum on the slam wagon day1, and oats didn't vote and at the moment my scum team would be oats, ritoky/snickers On March 08 2015 16:16 MysteryMeat1 wrote: MysteryMeat1 has been scumreading Oatsmaster constantly. But has never actually pushed him. And now, for the Day 3 lynch, MysteryMeat1 still doesn't push Oatsmaster, instead deciding to lynch Snickers for sheeping rsoultin and Onegu. Despite having Snickers as town earlier.I would vote on these three today oats and then snickers/ritoky, I liked rsouls and onegus reasoning so I would be fine with a snickers lynch. On March 09 2015 20:55 Oatsmaster wrote: So Oatsmaster was comfortable with scumreading MysteryMeat1. Then Oatsmaster switched his Robik read to town, and then voted for Snickers. No mention of MysteryMeat1 at all.robik is a huge dick looooooool. Too dick to be scum. Ok so snickers denying the claim is super weird. He should know that uncounterclaimed blues are blues. And he definitely isnt that doc or another blue either. ##vote snickers Conclusion: MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster Both MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster have provided several suspicious actions and reads of their own (well, not so many in Oatsmaster's case, since he only has 26 posts). Both have been on the sidelines, not pushing their reads (except for Oatsmaster's push on Robik), and following others (MysteryMeat1 did this constantly, Oatsmaster with his late vote on Snickers). Both have been consistently scumreading each other, but never pushing these reads. Therefore, I think that both MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster are mafia. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
In Onegu's case, he was scumread by virtually everyone going into Day 3, and so he claimed right away. This makes sense to me from a town perspective, as his chances of getting the lynch off of himself seemed small. In addition, if he had waited later in the day, his claim would have looked more suspicious. By claiming right at the start of the day, he waited until after the night kill, and ensured that town wouldn't waste time focusing on himself, and could focus on finding scum instead. Furthermore, Onegu's claimed medic saves are not the most obvious saves (probably ritoky night 1 and definitely myself night 2, note that I am not saying these are the best saves, just the most obvious ones), and that makes me more inclined to believe his claim. It's a lot easier to defend saving a claimed blue than it is to defend saving a somewhat suspicious player in Robik. So far, we have two claimed blues (vigilante and medic) and one dead mafia goon. It is reasonable to assume that mafia has at least one power role to compensate. A roleblocker is perfectly reasonable here, and thus if Onegu does not die, I don't think that it casts much doubt on his claim. That leaves four players: ritoky, rsoultin, MysteryMeat1, and Oatsmaster. None of these players are confirmed town. I've expressed reasons for townreading ritoky and rsoultin previously in my filter, but these reasons aren't concrete proof of their alignment. I don't think that it is possible for ritoky and rsoultin to be mafia together because of how quickly rsoultin voted for Alakaslam, and how long ritoky took to investigate people and only voted for Alakaslam with less than an hour left in Day 1 (and then rsoultin switched off of Alakaslam). If both were mafia with Alakaslam, this wouldn't have happened. I don't think that it is possible for ritoky and MysteryMeat1 to be mafia together because of ritoky's push from Snickers to MysteryMeat1 yesterday. This is an extremely risky play for mafia to do, while they could have simply taken the mislynch and put town at double LYLO. This leaves the following mafia teams: rsoultin and Oatsmaster rsoultin and MysteryMeat1 ritoky and Oatsmaster MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster For reasons I have already stated, I am most inclined to think that the last option is correct. I should take a closer look at rsoultin and ritoky. But for now, I need a break. I can't guarantee that I will get back to this game before the deadline, especially seeing as I am busy. But hopefully this is a good description of where my thoughts are at right now. Do note that I haven't kept up with this game as much as I would like, and therefore my reads are not as reliable as they normally would be (and they aren't very good normally, either). I've provided my thoughts, but while I am confirmed town, that doesn't mean that I am right. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Day 4 10 March 2015 Mornington Peninsula, Victoria, Australia "Ladies' day out!" I exclaimed. Today was where we ditched the gents and would go on a slew of winery tours. And since we were being hauled around in busses, we wouldn't have to worry ever about having too much to drink. I met up with Silverarte and Ninjabunnies as we took the train to an area near a tourist bus agency that serviced many of the main wineries on the Mornington Peninsula. Our first stop was literally the first thing in the morning, 8am at Eldridge Estate, owned by a well-known vintner named Onegu. The agency had arranged for small groups semi-private tours through some of the most well known wineries and Onegu himself was to give us a private tour through his estate. We arrived at the main shop and the attendant motioned us to come in and wait. We were 15 minutes early and apparently he would arrive within that time frame. His brother was maintaining the shop and getting ready to process orders for that day and when our appointment ran 30 minutes over, he became concerned. "This isn't like him." he muttered. "He would have damn well called by now." His brother rang Onegu. To everyone's chagrin, a police officer picked up. The worst had happened. Saboteurs had struck his family home and taken disruption to the next level. Onegu, the vintner (Town Medic) has been shot! Day 4 has begun. Day 4 ends in 48 hours at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) At that time, the player with the most votes gets lynched. The voting thread is located here. Countdown: | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
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Onegu
United States9695 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
we should filter-dive truffle most of his filter is on this page lololol | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 11 2015 09:22 rsoultin wrote: Oh you....truffle still lives we should filter-dive truffle most of his filter is on this page lololol Don't make me lynch you for spite. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
 i like to die in style! | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 11 2015 09:27 rsoultin wrote: But is it stylish when it has a body dangling from it?only if you use the silken rope i like to die in style! I'm kind of disappointed in the lack of response to my proposed scum team. If you see something I'm missing, I'd really like to know. Otherwise, I just want to lynch MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster and win the game, right? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + I certainly wouldn't call Student Mafia V very stylish | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
##Vote Truffle how rude...now isn't that a jarjar line? >> meh I've read rit's filter like 20ish times this game. doubt anything new and horrendous jumps out at me that is going to make me want to lynch him over oats and mm1 -shrugs- | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm mad. I thought I could trust you. ##vote rsoultin | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I don't understand how town could try as hard as ritoky has been in this game. It doesn't make sense. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
maybe i'm right because you're just pretending? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 11 2015 10:07 rsoultin wrote: Gimme a sec, lemme go ask my friends how to cover up a scumslip.....lol that's my biggest reason to townread him xP we're at a crossroads maybe i'm right because you're just pretending? LOOK BEHIND YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! See, the answer is that Half the Sky is actually hosting this game because she was bribed to do so by the American Communist party. It's all a conspiracy! | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
SCUMSLIP Truffle is >> << a communist! | ||
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