• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 11:24
CEST 17:24
KST 00:24
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Ro8 Preview: In A Tizzy9[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Holy Diver5[ASL22] Ro16 Preview: Rough Waters10[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Siren's Call8[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Summer's End9
Community News
Weekly Cups (Sep 13-20): herO scores triple2BSL Season 236Weekly Cups (Sep 7-12): SHIN, ByuN, MaxPax double down1StarCraft open world shooter announced at BlizzCon101Weekly Cups (Aug 30-Sep 7): herO thrives amid growing schism10
StarCraft 2
General
Balance hotfix patch 5.0.16b (July 16) Weekly Cups (Sep 13-20): herO scores triple Blizzard Classic Cup @ BlizzCon 2026 - $100k prize pool How do you feel about the StarCraft shooter announcement at BlizzCon 2026? The Death of Cheese: From a Professional Cheeser
Tourneys
Stellar Fest TWO the Moon (Dec 16-20) Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament 2026 GSTL Announcement RSL Revival: Season 6 - Qualifiers and Main Event RSL goes to London! 2026 Offline Finals Nov 21-22
Strategy
[H] ZvP Mid-Late Game: Stalkers Collossi HT
Custom Maps
[M] (2) Frigid Storage
External Content
Mutation # 544 Double Trouble The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 543 Enhanced Defenses Mutation # 542 The Ascended
Brood War
General
BW General Discussion NaDa's Body BSL Season 23 screpdb: new Starcraft reporting tool an AI researcher's take on the ladder bot
Tourneys
[ASL22] Ro8 Day 2 [ASL22] Ro16 Group D [ASL22] Ro8 Day 1 [IPSL] IPSL is Back With Winter 26-27!
Strategy
Cliff Jump Revisited (1 in a 1000 strategy) Replay Review Process - What do you do? Simple Questions, Simple Answers Odyssey Mineral Stack Saturation
Other Games
General Games
Nintendo Switch Thread Diablo IV Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread EVE Corporation
Dota 2
Dota 2 Champions League Season 3 Begins April 25! Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Artificial Intelligence Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine All you football fans (soccer)!
Fan Clubs
MarineLorD Fan Club The Creator Fan Club The ShoWTimE Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece Diablo Animated Series on Netflix
Sports
Football (Soccer) Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 MLB/Baseball 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
Recent Gifted Posts
Blogs
Gaming Intensity, Problemati…
TrAiDoS
38 yo Retired SWE loo…
PurE)Rabbit-SF
Can Bots Beat Pros?? Starcr…
namkraft
[meme] I finally understa…
LUCKY_NOOB
Regacy Esports:Our Goa…
regacyesports
Dreaming of BW patches (mod…
c3rberUs
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 8430 users

Newbie Student Mafia VI - Page 9

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
Prev 1 7 8 9 10 11 115 Next
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 24 2015 01:13 GMT
#161
On February 24 2015 10:07 Damdred wrote:
I give little cred yet to Yamato dodging so far. We will know soon if he's scum or not probably.

Why do you expect more when you don't know my experience for instance? Do you expect more because you know I'm town?

Also I think scum lynch rate is in the 33 or so percent actually a tad higher than rng I believe...


I mean, I expect more with your posting. So far so good. At least here you're not second guessing yourself. Be bold my friend. If you're scum, you'll out yourself. If you're town, you'll out yourself. The system works. much harder to find scum if people can be wishy-washy about everything.

As for the scum lynch rate not sure how that matters when you're discussing a random lynch. It's a moot point anyway.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
_Tormented_
Profile Joined February 2015
United States157 Posts
February 24 2015 01:13 GMT
#162
On February 24 2015 10:06 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2015 10:02 Eden1892 wrote:
On February 24 2015 09:31 Probulous wrote:
Precisely

Just getting the ball rolling. You still haven't answered my question, what does it mean to you? To me it means nothing, hence I asked the question.

As for random lynch, over my dead body. We are statistically more likely to get town and more importantly it provides cover for scum to avoid scumhunting in Day 1. No point in wasting a whole day waiting for a lynch that gives us no information.

[citation needed]

On February 24 2015 09:48 Half the Sky wrote:
So which cell are you Artanis?

Also how dirty is your mind going to get this game? Do I want to know?

yes let's get dirty this game


ROFL, what I meant was with 10 townies and 3 mafia, there is a much higher chance on lynching town if the lynch is completely randomised.

Eden, what makes you "bad" at this game?



I would argue that there is a higher chance of lynching town if it is NOT random, but then you would lose out on any information. The theory behind this is that the mafia know each other and the town do not (on average). This leads to mafia not only have a numbers advantage in that there is a higher chance that town get lynched, but they will also work together to absolutely make sure one of their own do not die day one. Granted I am sure they screw up from time to time and do get lynched day 1, but to say that there is a higher chance of lynching town at random, I believe that to be false.
The good news about computers is that they do what you tell them to do. The bad news is that they do what you tell them to do.
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12973 Posts
February 24 2015 01:15 GMT
#163
On February 24 2015 10:10 Eden1892 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2015 10:06 Probulous wrote:
On February 24 2015 10:02 Eden1892 wrote:
On February 24 2015 09:31 Probulous wrote:
Precisely

Just getting the ball rolling. You still haven't answered my question, what does it mean to you? To me it means nothing, hence I asked the question.

As for random lynch, over my dead body. We are statistically more likely to get town and more importantly it provides cover for scum to avoid scumhunting in Day 1. No point in wasting a whole day waiting for a lynch that gives us no information.

[citation needed]

On February 24 2015 09:48 Half the Sky wrote:
So which cell are you Artanis?

Also how dirty is your mind going to get this game? Do I want to know?

yes let's get dirty this game


ROFL, what I meant was with 10 townies and 3 mafia, there is a much higher chance on lynching town if the lynch is completely randomised.

Eden, what makes you "bad" at this game?

Oh. That's a lot more boring, I was hoping there were some kind of stats available somewhere because I love stats. But yeah, a random lynch hits town more likely than mafia. Most d1 lynches tend to. I'm not worried too much about that.

+ Show Spoiler +

Anyway I'm not actually bad at this game, I just said that so that when the mafia scroll down and read the thread they'll see it and not nightkill me. They probably won't open this spoiler box because they're lazy/not reading so I can safely tell you this here.

There's a bunch of fun statistics in the TL Database.
+ Show Spoiler +
Mafia players are lynched 26.2% of the time on day one.
Random lynching would result in a mafia lynch 25.2% of the time.
Mafia players are lynched only 16.9% of the time in newbie games on day one, so excluding these games brings the overall day one lynch percentage up to 28.5%!
48% of players playing in a newbie game have returned to play in at least 1 other game.
There have been 1200 distinct mafia players.
VE has been lynched 24 times.
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
February 24 2015 01:18 GMT
#164
On February 24 2015 10:15 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Mafia players are lynched only 16.9% of the time in newbie games on day one, so excluding these games brings the overall day one lynch percentage up to 28.5%!

Oh sweet Mother of RNGesus we're fucked. Time to start the Sacred Rite!

This post # will be the source of our random lynch target
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
February 24 2015 01:18 GMT
#165
So Eden wants to get dirty, hey Artanis, what do think of that?

In any case, as far as Prob being serious...I don't know him. I don't know whether people played more serious back in the day, assuming he's another old timer.

He's serious but he's not stiff. I don't sense any discomfort in his posts. He seems assertive/comfortable from what I read of his posts so he's probably town.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 24 2015 01:18 GMT
#166
On February 24 2015 10:13 _Tormented_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2015 10:06 Probulous wrote:
On February 24 2015 10:02 Eden1892 wrote:
On February 24 2015 09:31 Probulous wrote:
Precisely

Just getting the ball rolling. You still haven't answered my question, what does it mean to you? To me it means nothing, hence I asked the question.

As for random lynch, over my dead body. We are statistically more likely to get town and more importantly it provides cover for scum to avoid scumhunting in Day 1. No point in wasting a whole day waiting for a lynch that gives us no information.

[citation needed]

On February 24 2015 09:48 Half the Sky wrote:
So which cell are you Artanis?

Also how dirty is your mind going to get this game? Do I want to know?

yes let's get dirty this game


ROFL, what I meant was with 10 townies and 3 mafia, there is a much higher chance on lynching town if the lynch is completely randomised.

Eden, what makes you "bad" at this game?



I would argue that there is a higher chance of lynching town if it is NOT random, but then you would lose out on any information. The theory behind this is that the mafia know each other and the town do not (on average). This leads to mafia not only have a numbers advantage in that there is a higher chance that town get lynched, but they will also work together to absolutely make sure one of their own do not die day one. Granted I am sure they screw up from time to time and do get lynched day 1, but to say that there is a higher chance of lynching town at random, I believe that to be false.


It's not random then is it.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
_Tormented_
Profile Joined February 2015
United States157 Posts
February 24 2015 01:19 GMT
#167
lol, well my post is wrong...at least in non newbie games on here.
The good news about computers is that they do what you tell them to do. The bad news is that they do what you tell them to do.
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
February 24 2015 01:19 GMT
#168
23804997 mod 13 = 8.00

1) Probulous (filter)
2) Artanis[Xp] (filter)
3) Half the Sky (filter)
4) sicklucker (filter)
5) Tronak (filter)
6) Yamato77 (filter)
7) _Tormented_ (filter)
8) Node (filter)
9) The Shining (filter)
10) Eden1892 (filter)
11) WaveofShadow (filter)
12) Damdred (filter)
13) snarfs (filter)

You know what to do.

##VOTE: Node
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12973 Posts
February 24 2015 01:20 GMT
#169
On February 24 2015 10:18 Half the Sky wrote:
So Eden wants to get dirty, hey Artanis, what do think of that?

I'm in of course, but we need at least one lady to make it truly interesting~
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
February 24 2015 01:21 GMT
#170
We aren't random lynching. Why are you trying to distract town now Eden.
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
February 24 2015 01:23 GMT
#171
Eden, dear goodness, no. That shit drove me insane in Titanic, it was a waste of time and if that game wasn't in progress I'd rant on...

We don't need another BH. Please, no.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12973 Posts
February 24 2015 01:23 GMT
#172
Damdred what do you think of Probulous?
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
February 24 2015 01:23 GMT
#173
Also game has given me a few good town leans. Also I'm not a newbie so there's that to
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
February 24 2015 01:24 GMT
#174
On February 24 2015 10:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2015 10:18 Half the Sky wrote:
So Eden wants to get dirty, hey Artanis, what do think of that?

I'm in of course, but we need at least one lady to make it truly interesting~


Artanis..........

If there are any other ladies in this game please join me in slapping around Artanis.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12973 Posts
February 24 2015 01:26 GMT
#175
On February 24 2015 10:24 Half the Sky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2015 10:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
On February 24 2015 10:18 Half the Sky wrote:
So Eden wants to get dirty, hey Artanis, what do think of that?

I'm in of course, but we need at least one lady to make it truly interesting~


Artanis..........

If there are any other ladies in this game please join me in slapping around Artanis.

You can't keep probing me for dirty thoughts then get angry when I deliver. Don't worry, you can enter through the back door and no one will know~
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
February 24 2015 01:26 GMT
#176
On February 24 2015 10:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Damdred what do you think of Probulous?


He's interesting, his answers are okish. Him trying to jumpstart the game is good. He looks towny right now
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12973 Posts
February 24 2015 01:27 GMT
#177
On February 24 2015 10:26 Damdred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2015 10:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Damdred what do you think of Probulous?


He's interesting, his answers are okish. Him trying to jumpstart the game is good. He looks towny right now

Ok, I'm actually very curious if you have a read on me yet given our history.

I also want to know what your favourite pancake topping is.
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 24 2015 01:28 GMT
#178
On February 24 2015 10:18 Half the Sky wrote:
So Eden wants to get dirty, hey Artanis, what do think of that?

In any case, as far as Prob being serious...I don't know him. I don't know whether people played more serious back in the day, assuming he's another old timer.

He's serious but he's not stiff. I don't sense any discomfort in his posts. He seems assertive/comfortable from what I read of his posts so he's probably town.


No it's not "old-timers", I'm just an asshole that's all.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
February 24 2015 01:29 GMT
#179
On February 24 2015 10:27 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2015 10:26 Damdred wrote:
On February 24 2015 10:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Damdred what do you think of Probulous?


He's interesting, his answers are okish. Him trying to jumpstart the game is good. He looks towny right now

Ok, I'm actually very curious if you have a read on me yet given our history.

I also want to know what your favourite pancake topping is.


I have a lean on your life.

Blueberry
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12973 Posts
February 24 2015 01:32 GMT
#180
On February 24 2015 10:29 Damdred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2015 10:27 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
On February 24 2015 10:26 Damdred wrote:
On February 24 2015 10:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Damdred what do you think of Probulous?


He's interesting, his answers are okish. Him trying to jumpstart the game is good. He looks towny right now

Ok, I'm actually very curious if you have a read on me yet given our history.

I also want to know what your favourite pancake topping is.


I have a lean on your life.

Blueberry

That wasn't quite as enlightening as I thought.

That's a 4/10 topping at best.
Prev 1 7 8 9 10 11 115 Next
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Kung Fu Cup
11:00
2026 Week 24
IntoTheiNu 1059
RotterdaM842
SteadfastSC187
Rex138
CosmosSc2 99
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
RotterdaM 842
SteadfastSC 187
Rex 138
CosmosSc2 99
UpATreeSC 24
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 47405
Shuttle 2903
Bisu 2428
Light 835
BeSt 706
Mini 414
Rush 358
Stork 302
Snow 223
hero 104
[ Show more ]
Shine 66
Dewaltoss 65
Hyun 57
Shinee 47
Mong 39
PianO 29
Sexy 27
ToSsGirL 25
Hm[arnc] 23
HiyA 21
Sharp 19
Rock 17
Terrorterran 16
sorry 15
Aegong 13
NotJumperer 13
Dota 2
Gorgc6921
qojqva1967
Dendi897
Counter-Strike
x6flipin360
Heroes of the Storm
crisheroes437
Other Games
B2W.Neo793
hiko746
Lowko367
ceh9303
Liquid`VortiX248
ArmadaUGS118
Mew2King105
QueenE69
Organizations
Dota 2
PGL Dota 2 - Main Stream12589
StarCraft: Brood War
Afreeca ASL 352
Kim Chul Min (afreeca) 7
[ Show 14 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• mYiSmile142
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Dota 2
• C_a_k_e 5538
• WagamamaTV104
League of Legends
• Nemesis2981
• TFBlade839
Other Games
• Shiphtur39
Upcoming Events
The PondCast
18h 36m
Replay Cast
1d 8h
Korean StarCraft League
2 days
CranKy Ducklings
2 days
GSL
3 days
Yamato Cup
3 days
Replay Cast
4 days
Afreeca Starleague
4 days
Soma vs Jaedong
WardiTV Weekly
4 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
5 days
[ Show More ]
Afreeca Starleague
5 days
Leta vs Soulkey
PiGosaur Cup
6 days
Kung Fu Cup
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Super Anchor Qualifying S3
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Big Dog Cup 2026 Div 1

Ongoing

ASL Season 22
CSL 2026 AUTUMN (S22)
Acropolis #5
Acropolis #5 - GSA
Calamity Invitational
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
SL StarSeries Fall 2026
FISSURE Playground #3
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026

Upcoming

Acropolis #5 - GSB
Acropolis #5 - GSC
BSL Season 23
SC4ALL II: Brood War
BSL 23: Non-Korean Championship
HSC XXX
Stellar Fest 2: Lunar Cup
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
Custodian Cup
Copium Cup
PGL Major Singapore 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 6
BLAST Rivals Fall 2026
IEM Beijing 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 5
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
1win Private Club #2
Thunderpick World Champ. '26
ESL Pro League Season 24
Stake Ranked Episode 4
1win Private Club #1
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.