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On February 24 2015 10:07 Damdred wrote:
I give little cred yet to Yamato dodging so far. We will know soon if he's scum or not probably.
Why do you expect more when you don't know my experience for instance? Do you expect more because you know I'm town?
Also I think scum lynch rate is in the 33 or so percent actually a tad higher than rng I believe...
I mean, I expect more with your posting. So far so good. At least here you're not second guessing yourself. Be bold my friend. If you're scum, you'll out yourself. If you're town, you'll out yourself. The system works. much harder to find scum if people can be wishy-washy about everything.
As for the scum lynch rate not sure how that matters when you're discussing a random lynch. It's a moot point anyway.
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On February 24 2015 10:06 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2015 10:02 Eden1892 wrote:On February 24 2015 09:31 Probulous wrote:Precisely  Just getting the ball rolling. You still haven't answered my question, what does it mean to you? To me it means nothing, hence I asked the question. As for random lynch, over my dead body. We are statistically more likely to get town and more importantly it provides cover for scum to avoid scumhunting in Day 1. No point in wasting a whole day waiting for a lynch that gives us no information. [citation needed] On February 24 2015 09:48 Half the Sky wrote:
So which cell are you Artanis?
Also how dirty is your mind going to get this game? Do I want to know? yes let's get dirty this game  ROFL, what I meant was with 10 townies and 3 mafia, there is a much higher chance on lynching town if the lynch is completely randomised. Eden, what makes you "bad" at this game?
I would argue that there is a higher chance of lynching town if it is NOT random, but then you would lose out on any information. The theory behind this is that the mafia know each other and the town do not (on average). This leads to mafia not only have a numbers advantage in that there is a higher chance that town get lynched, but they will also work together to absolutely make sure one of their own do not die day one. Granted I am sure they screw up from time to time and do get lynched day 1, but to say that there is a higher chance of lynching town at random, I believe that to be false.
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On February 24 2015 10:10 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2015 10:06 Probulous wrote:On February 24 2015 10:02 Eden1892 wrote:On February 24 2015 09:31 Probulous wrote:Precisely Just getting the ball rolling. You still haven't answered my question, what does it mean to you? To me it means nothing, hence I asked the question. As for random lynch, over my dead body. We are statistically more likely to get town and more importantly it provides cover for scum to avoid scumhunting in Day 1. No point in wasting a whole day waiting for a lynch that gives us no information. [citation needed] On February 24 2015 09:48 Half the Sky wrote:
So which cell are you Artanis?
Also how dirty is your mind going to get this game? Do I want to know? yes let's get dirty this game ROFL, what I meant was with 10 townies and 3 mafia, there is a much higher chance on lynching town if the lynch is completely randomised. Eden, what makes you "bad" at this game? Oh. That's a lot more boring, I was hoping there were some kind of stats available somewhere because I love stats. But yeah, a random lynch hits town more likely than mafia. Most d1 lynches tend to. I'm not worried too much about that. + Show Spoiler +
Anyway I'm not actually bad at this game, I just said that so that when the mafia scroll down and read the thread they'll see it and not nightkill me. They probably won't open this spoiler box because they're lazy/not reading so I can safely tell you this here.
There's a bunch of fun statistics in the TL Database.
+ Show Spoiler +Mafia players are lynched 26.2% of the time on day one.
Random lynching would result in a mafia lynch 25.2% of the time.
Mafia players are lynched only 16.9% of the time in newbie games on day one, so excluding these games brings the overall day one lynch percentage up to 28.5%!
48% of players playing in a newbie game have returned to play in at least 1 other game.
There have been 1200 distinct mafia players.
VE has been lynched 24 times.
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On February 24 2015 10:15 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Mafia players are lynched only 16.9% of the time in newbie games on day one, so excluding these games brings the overall day one lynch percentage up to 28.5%!
Oh sweet Mother of RNGesus we're fucked. Time to start the Sacred Rite!
This post # will be the source of our random lynch target
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So Eden wants to get dirty, hey Artanis, what do think of that?
In any case, as far as Prob being serious...I don't know him. I don't know whether people played more serious back in the day, assuming he's another old timer.
He's serious but he's not stiff. I don't sense any discomfort in his posts. He seems assertive/comfortable from what I read of his posts so he's probably town.
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On February 24 2015 10:13 _Tormented_ wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2015 10:06 Probulous wrote:On February 24 2015 10:02 Eden1892 wrote:On February 24 2015 09:31 Probulous wrote:Precisely Just getting the ball rolling. You still haven't answered my question, what does it mean to you? To me it means nothing, hence I asked the question. As for random lynch, over my dead body. We are statistically more likely to get town and more importantly it provides cover for scum to avoid scumhunting in Day 1. No point in wasting a whole day waiting for a lynch that gives us no information. [citation needed] On February 24 2015 09:48 Half the Sky wrote:
So which cell are you Artanis?
Also how dirty is your mind going to get this game? Do I want to know? yes let's get dirty this game ROFL, what I meant was with 10 townies and 3 mafia, there is a much higher chance on lynching town if the lynch is completely randomised. Eden, what makes you "bad" at this game? I would argue that there is a higher chance of lynching town if it is NOT random, but then you would lose out on any information. The theory behind this is that the mafia know each other and the town do not (on average). This leads to mafia not only have a numbers advantage in that there is a higher chance that town get lynched, but they will also work together to absolutely make sure one of their own do not die day one. Granted I am sure they screw up from time to time and do get lynched day 1, but to say that there is a higher chance of lynching town at random, I believe that to be false.
It's not random then is it.
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lol, well my post is wrong...at least in non newbie games on here.
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23804997 mod 13 = 8.00
1) Probulous (filter)
2) Artanis[Xp] (filter)
3) Half the Sky (filter)
4) sicklucker (filter)
5) Tronak (filter)
6) Yamato77 (filter)
7) _Tormented_ (filter)
8) Node (filter)
9) The Shining (filter)
10) Eden1892 (filter)
11) WaveofShadow (filter)
12) Damdred (filter)
13) snarfs (filter)
You know what to do.
##VOTE: Node
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On February 24 2015 10:18 Half the Sky wrote:So Eden wants to get dirty, hey Artanis, what do think of that?
I'm in of course, but we need at least one lady to make it truly interesting~
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We aren't random lynching. Why are you trying to distract town now Eden.
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Eden, dear goodness, no. That shit drove me insane in Titanic, it was a waste of time and if that game wasn't in progress I'd rant on...
We don't need another BH. Please, no.
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Damdred what do you think of Probulous?
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Also game has given me a few good town leans. Also I'm not a newbie so there's that to
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On February 24 2015 10:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2015 10:18 Half the Sky wrote:So Eden wants to get dirty, hey Artanis, what do think of that? I'm in of course, but we need at least one lady to make it truly interesting~
Artanis..........
If there are any other ladies in this game please join me in slapping around Artanis.
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On February 24 2015 10:24 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2015 10:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On February 24 2015 10:18 Half the Sky wrote:So Eden wants to get dirty, hey Artanis, what do think of that? I'm in of course, but we need at least one lady to make it truly interesting~ Artanis.......... If there are any other ladies in this game please join me in slapping around Artanis.
You can't keep probing me for dirty thoughts then get angry when I deliver. Don't worry, you can enter through the back door and no one will know~
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On February 24 2015 10:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Damdred what do you think of Probulous?
He's interesting, his answers are okish. Him trying to jumpstart the game is good. He looks towny right now
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On February 24 2015 10:26 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2015 10:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Damdred what do you think of Probulous? He's interesting, his answers are okish. Him trying to jumpstart the game is good. He looks towny right now
Ok, I'm actually very curious if you have a read on me yet given our history.
I also want to know what your favourite pancake topping is.
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On February 24 2015 10:18 Half the Sky wrote:So Eden wants to get dirty, hey Artanis, what do think of that? In any case, as far as Prob being serious...I don't know him. I don't know whether people played more serious back in the day, assuming he's another old timer. He's serious but he's not stiff. I don't sense any discomfort in his posts. He seems assertive/comfortable from what I read of his posts so he's probably town.
No it's not "old-timers", I'm just an asshole that's all.
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On February 24 2015 10:27 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2015 10:26 Damdred wrote:On February 24 2015 10:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Damdred what do you think of Probulous? He's interesting, his answers are okish. Him trying to jumpstart the game is good. He looks towny right now Ok, I'm actually very curious if you have a read on me yet given our history. I also want to know what your favourite pancake topping is.
I have a lean on your life.
Blueberry
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On February 24 2015 10:29 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2015 10:27 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On February 24 2015 10:26 Damdred wrote:On February 24 2015 10:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Damdred what do you think of Probulous? He's interesting, his answers are okish. Him trying to jumpstart the game is good. He looks towny right now Ok, I'm actually very curious if you have a read on me yet given our history. I also want to know what your favourite pancake topping is. I have a lean on your life. Blueberry
That wasn't quite as enlightening as I thought.
That's a 4/10 topping at best.
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EPT
