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VII Titanic Mini Mafia: I Have a Cunning Plan... - Page 13
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Btw, FF...I absolutely adore that theme song you gave me  Well, bedtime. Can hunt for association reads tomorrow. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On February 20 2015 17:34 Blazinghand wrote: I don't. I'm discusssing what's our best strategy for getting LS Lycnhed today. Do you get what i'm saying? I'm voting LS 100% but how much I write about him... like it might not be optimal for me to actually write a lot of case on him, you get what I'm saying? People are stupid and dont' trust me Blazinghand, is your main reason for scumreading LS that one post about HtS? Because, frankly, I think that's beneath you, and I'm not at all comfortable with Damdred's willingness to call it damning, either. Ritoky's vote analysis has more backing in logic than that, although I'm not sure how statistically sound it is to assume mafia follow each other around like ducklings. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On February 20 2015 15:53 Fecalfeast wrote: prplhz, rso, palmar I actually had robik as SK Mafia trying for the wifomiest wifom play leaving BH alive? I still can't wrap my head around why sent would bother saying anything. FF, it's gonna bug me if you never come up with an alternative theory for SK when I'm still thinking you could be a good candidate. Gonna shower, then reread the Breshke/Damdred filters. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
ritoky hts ls [red]eden[/red palmar rso superbia after I call him out on no scumreads: scumreads rso super votes: ksc off Eden's case <- no prior mention of him BH <- after CC lian <- sheeping BH also a very interesting post criticizing eden for not believing there could be two JKs before the mod reveal finally screams one minute before vote ends that he'll move to me -_- looking at Breshke's interactions, which for the purpose of this analysis I'm defining as people he actually reaches out to engage with directly on his own initiative (rather than fielding questions or simply talking about), the following he townread but never interacted with: Palmar LS No reads/interaction with the following: VA Slam (there was a weird faith healing comment, but I didn't really follow that) prplhz ksc lian rayn | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On February 21 2015 01:51 rsoultin wrote: Breshke defends/townreads: ritoky hts ls eden palmar rso superbia after I call him out on no scumreads: scumreads rso super votes: ksc off Eden's case <- no prior mention of him BH <- after CC lian <- sheeping BH also a very interesting post criticizing eden for not believing there could be two JKs before the mod reveal finally screams one minute before vote ends that he'll move to me -_- looking at Breshke's interactions, which for the purpose of this analysis I'm defining as people he actually reaches out to engage with directly on his own initiative (rather than fielding questions or simply talking about), the following he townread but never interacted with: Palmar LS No reads/interaction with the following: VA Slam (there was a weird faith healing comment, but I didn't really follow that) prplhz ksc lian rayn EBWOP: Sorry, fixed formatting problems. | ||
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rsoultin
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Builds case on rayn Honestly, his filter isn't much for info. Had two static reads amongst the still-living players: Rso-scum HtS-town Very little interaction in general. One notable thing was how frequently he switched his read on LS...did it 3 times. Not sure what I'm supposed to take from that, though. | ||
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rsoultin
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+ Show Spoiler + On February 16 2015 05:06 LightningStrike wrote: KSC was asking for your reads. Also I don't think he's Mafia this game I mean I played with him like 5 times before this game 2 times when he was Mafia and 3 times as Town. I think he's playing his town meta but he just inactive. Drops him to null later as a possible SK. + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2015 06:34 LightningStrike wrote: Funny you mention that NYE because he was sheeping a ton in that game. He might be null for now but if there is a SK in this game he could be it idk what else to expect but also check Metal Mini and Student V to compared another Mafia Game and another Town game. He actually interacts a lot with Damdred, though. And then there's this post; I don't see him calling attention to this if they're both scum: + Show Spoiler + On February 18 2015 23:45 LightningStrike wrote: Also I can never go wrong when I sheep Damdred I mean the only time I didn't jump a wagon with him was in Slytherin onto Slam because I only got him as Null and I Gobble in that game was 100% Mafia and was right on Gobble <3 Damdred. ##Vote: raynpelikoneet Meh...I'm willing to entertain that my read on LS could be wrong, but less because of LS himself and more because of how Damdred and Breshke interacted with him. Last time he sheeped as scum, he sheeped town Bats. The argument could be made that his scummates weren't playing to sheep, but it suggests to me that he at least realizes how bad it looks to be sheeping mafia. LS, what exactly was it about Damdred's meta that had you hard townreading him? Can you quote specific posts? | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
I'm still not convinced that sheeping Damdred or that "scum qt convo" makes LS scum. So if you have a case, BH, please make it. Why is prplhz a bad choice? Who even cares if he might be mod-killed? I'm much more sure on him, and fail to see the problem with lynching almost definite scum over a possible mislynch and depending on a mod-kill to save our asses. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On February 21 2015 02:39 Blazinghand wrote: Being correct isn't "beneath me" Even if he is scum, how much you want to bet that never came from any QT and y'all are reading into something that doesn't exist? Apparently that's a yes, then; your main reason for scumreading him is your not being able to read a post critically. Good job. | ||
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rsoultin
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On February 21 2015 04:46 ritoky wrote: rsoul, if you don't like the slip post, then look at the very simple reason I gave that literally 0 people have addressed and I have asked about it like 6 times now. toward the end of day 1 LS gave a meta read on me that I was town for not fighting and tunneling, during this past night phase he flipped that read for no reason. he claimed I was now mafia for meta reasons for tunneling HtS, I asked him to prove it, he rescinded and claimed I was tunneling him because of 3 posts I made stating he could be mafia. this read is a DIRECT CONTRADICTION to his earlier read. someone please explain to me how that is not scum? i need to verify this after work, but if its how youre representing it that is certainly scummy. admittedly i was rather annoyed by what i perceived to be a very dumb push based on wording/formatting in a post and didnt read it as closely as i should have | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On February 21 2015 05:00 ritoky wrote: There's a lot more statistics and logic to my vote analysis, I just elect to not post it in the thread cuz I have before and people find it unreadable and boring as hell and choose not to read it. I track lynches contributed to, town/mafia voted on, most voted with, when scum vote on partners, first 3 and last 3 on a wagon, and more such things. but I mean simply look at the #s for the day 1 votes, there are (for me) 8 people who are question marks on that vote. 3 of them are on the lead lynch, 3 of them are on the secondary lynch, and 2 are stray voting. generally speaking from my statistics I keep stray voting is a way that mafia easily die late in the game, so many non-afk type mafia tend to avoid it. palmar and slam aren't really the afk type. anyway just by averages alone it would say that there is 1 among each block of voting, but if you bring in the second vote you can see patterns emerge of people voting with eachother, when they move, etc. there's a lot of explaining to it, but suffice it to say that if I look at my statistics when there are split votes mafia very often vote in blocks of 2 or 3, and in consolidated votes can often be found bunched. if you dont want to, i get it, but please understand that ppl saying things that i cant verify for myself makes me tend to tune out. id actually appreciate the full analysis so i can see where youre coming from. as a sidenote, i think im going to have to reevaluate my read on you as well. im a sucker for appeals to logic lol | ||
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rsoultin
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bb in several hours | ||
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rsoultin
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On February 21 2015 11:24 VayneAuthority wrote: nonexistant, its when I switched my vote over to breshke and then he was the next to vote it. so, maybe I'm just stupid here, but you're saying that prplhz voted for breshke when he was in no danger of being lynched, and this makes him town? | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
I like the prplhz point, though. (The one on your alignment I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Is it just that he didn't go into detail?) Random rayn/Palmar quote in the middle of your Damdred section? Also not sure how that's alignment-indicative. If they're both town, Palmar doesn't know rayn is town. I'd have to look at their past games together to see how well they read each other. Good cases can still be made against townies. Would you please verify what Damdred is saying about the Slythern game and rayn? If it's obviously false, then that would indicate Palmar is likely scum, but since it's Damdred I doubt he makes a case referencing another game where it doesn't check out at least on the surface. Last point is interesting, I suppose, but I'm not really sure what you expect him to say as either alignment when he was one of the only ones townreading Damdred? TLDR; Best points are the prplhz read and the Damdred case being good if it was bad. They're really good finds, FF, but I don't know that I agree with your analysis. If you don't get to the slythern game before I get off work tomorrow, I will. Covering shifts this weekend though so not much time between then and now to look at everything I want to look at. | ||
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rsoultin
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On February 21 2015 14:00 VayneAuthority wrote: Following basic psychology, it would be a very stupid thing to do to a teammate. When wagons form, they form quickly due to mob mentality. Snowballing a wagon to bus your partner in that situation would be extremely risky and hard to take your vote off of later without looking extremely suspicious. Its an unnecessary risk as mafia. Wasn't there another, stronger wagon at the time? That's how I seem to remember it, but I'd have to check. So many pages of game -_- | ||
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rsoultin
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I think I found the quotes that make up the "conversation that never existed" between you and HtS yesterday in BH's long list of links, because I spent an inordinate amount of time checking that, but finding it again will be time-consuming. They're not all together, and knowing how my brain works, I combine things into general impressions all the time, so that's not that much of a stretch. But if you're going to just up and quit, there's nothing I can do for you anyway, and I really can't be bothered. I'll just look for scum and hope I've been wrong on you and you're not just having a fit. | ||
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rsoultin
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rsoultin
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On February 21 2015 14:14 rsoultin wrote: Alaka, why do you think there is a vig in this game? Oh, Day 1, gotcha. Yeah, the vig claiming would be good here to narrow down the lynch pool. | ||
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