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On March 05 2015 00:40 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2015 03:48 Tubesock wrote:
Rereading Your Mom, I don't really see anything, but reading Rayn's cases and arguments I'm basically sold he's/she's mafia. Rayn is pretty convincing and I'm strongly townreading him. Show nested quote +On March 04 2015 04:00 Tubesock wrote:
I didn't see a reason for him scumming you at first. But later he does, and lays them out. I read Rayn's case and thought that makes sense. I then reread your filter and the first few pages looking at you and skimming the rest, but then I don't see the scum. But I really think Rayn is town. So, I'm conflicted and unsure. It is why I'm not voting you just yet. These two posts seem scummy in hindsight. It's tough to follow his thought process in a sequence that makes sense. From what I can tell: 1) He reads Your Mom's filter, doesn't see anything wrong 2) He reads rayn's case, thinks it makes sense and is sold that he is mafia 3) He rereads Your Mom's filter with rayn's case in mind and still doesn't see anything wrong As far as I can tell, all three events happened by the time the first post was made since he specifically refers to rereading. If he doesn't think rayn's case works after rereading, why is he still saying that it makes sense? Can you reread Your Mom's filter with rayn's case in mind and think that BOTH rayn's case make sense and Your Mom's filter is not scummy? How does he go from "sold he's mafia" to "don't see the scum" in that twelve minute period when questioned further? I also dislike that he mentions multiple times that a large part of the read is based on his view that rayn is town, rather than finding things that make your mom is mafia. LOL
its this very post that made me town read him
i see lots of town change their view based on ppl they think are towny.
not sure if mafia would be so open about this to be honest.
+as town im often chastised for switching "strong" viws so i know this isnt a hard mafia indicator,
tl;dr hes put his cards exactly as what they are with no additional agenda/distraction afterwards. to me thats townie
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On March 05 2015 00:51 geript wrote:
Maybe add Mocsta to that list too.
yeah i made a typo when i put you in my content group
definitely now int eh naughty club.
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On March 05 2015 00:55 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 00:47 Mocsta wrote:On March 05 2015 00:40 kitaman27 wrote:On March 04 2015 03:48 Tubesock wrote:
Rereading Your Mom, I don't really see anything, but reading Rayn's cases and arguments I'm basically sold he's/she's mafia. Rayn is pretty convincing and I'm strongly townreading him. On March 04 2015 04:00 Tubesock wrote:
I didn't see a reason for him scumming you at first. But later he does, and lays them out. I read Rayn's case and thought that makes sense. I then reread your filter and the first few pages looking at you and skimming the rest, but then I don't see the scum. But I really think Rayn is town. So, I'm conflicted and unsure. It is why I'm not voting you just yet. These two posts seem scummy in hindsight. It's tough to follow his thought process in a sequence that makes sense. From what I can tell: 1) He reads Your Mom's filter, doesn't see anything wrong 2) He reads rayn's case, thinks it makes sense and is sold that he is mafia 3) He rereads Your Mom's filter with rayn's case in mind and still doesn't see anything wrong As far as I can tell, all three events happened by the time the first post was made since he specifically refers to rereading. If he doesn't think rayn's case works after rereading, why is he still saying that it makes sense? Can you reread Your Mom's filter with rayn's case in mind and think that BOTH rayn's case make sense and Your Mom's filter is not scummy? How does he go from "sold he's mafia" to "don't see the scum" in that twelve minute period when questioned further? I also dislike that he mentions multiple times that a large part of the read is based on his view that rayn is town, rather than finding things that make your mom is mafia. LOL its this very post that made me town read him i see lots of town change their view based on ppl they think are towny. not sure if mafia would be so open about this to be honest. +as town im often chastised for switching "strong" viws so i know this isnt a hard mafia indicator, tl;dr hes put his cards exactly as what they are with no additional agenda/distraction afterwards. to me thats townie Yeah switching views is something I find to be townie as well, but what I'm trying to understand is how he can consider rayn's case to be convincing and making sense, yet unable to find reasons to see why your mom is mafia. It's fine it he takes one stance or the other, but it seems like he took both stances at the same time. Yeah i get what you are saying, but thats also perhaps more applicable if he was the bandwagon leader (i.e. rayn).
Realistically,
you have an opinion on a player
someone makes a couple of points that you agree with and suddenly your read is challenged.
you re-read and are conflicted.
LIke i don't care if i cop slack for this. but... a couple hours ago i said specifically i would give thoughts on sepulchre later on, cos when i read his filter as requested i was thinking. fuck me this guy is scummy.
BUT i know i also said early game that i liked his first post a lot.. so i wanted to be have a re-read when the mind had a break before publicising that opinion.
sounds like a similar reaction (but in reverse) for tubesock.
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On March 05 2015 00:56 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Kita, geript and Keirathi. Also toad. I am home in 1,5gh. Theen let's talk.
fuck u guys
contemplating a modkill.
will make a decision in the morning.
night.
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On March 04 2015 08:56 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2015 08:47 geript wrote:On March 04 2015 08:41 geript wrote:
@Damdred, Rayn, Kita and Sandroba
I want you to post your thoughts on the following people:
Obiwanshinobi
Batsnacks
Sepulchre
Onegu
Oatsmaster
Toad you can chime in on this too. I want to bounce ideas off of people and these are the people I'm the least sure of right now. From memory OWS bat onegu have all being really underwhelming. All have been flying under the radar and it's likely that there are 1-2 mafia lying in that group. Oats I don't think even posted once unless I missed it, so I'd like to give him a bit of time to come in the thread and give his thoughts. The only one I heavily lean town on is sepulchre because of his big intro post which I really liked.
2 points
(1) this offers some pretense for an onegu check
(2) the sep town read. I need sandroba to elaborate on this further.
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like in theory. the more i ponder about a onegu check, the more i like it.
if town, he is unlikely to be shot by mafia
if a ninja, he would have a vest to protect the shot; and prob wasnt the best shot target given we didnt lynch scum.
The check is pretty solid in that he was likely to still be in the game Day 2.
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On March 05 2015 17:52 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 17:51 Mocsta wrote:On March 04 2015 08:56 sandroba wrote:On March 04 2015 08:47 geript wrote:On March 04 2015 08:41 geript wrote:
@Damdred, Rayn, Kita and Sandroba
I want you to post your thoughts on the following people:
Obiwanshinobi
Batsnacks
Sepulchre
Onegu
Oatsmaster
Toad you can chime in on this too. I want to bounce ideas off of people and these are the people I'm the least sure of right now. From memory OWS bat onegu have all being really underwhelming. All have been flying under the radar and it's likely that there are 1-2 mafia lying in that group. Oats I don't think even posted once unless I missed it, so I'd like to give him a bit of time to come in the thread and give his thoughts. The only one I heavily lean town on is sepulchre because of his big intro post which I really liked. 2 points (1) this offers some pretense for an onegu check (2) the sep town read. I need sandroba to elaborate on this further. he has more indepth reads though. Why do you think sandro is fakeclaiming? well, whether he is fakeclaiming or not, its prob likely onegu is town.
So, im more trying to understand sandroba considering i dont like sep first post (in context with the rest of his filter)
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On March 05 2015 18:01 geript wrote:
I'm really dumb dealing with the stupidity. It wouldn't even surprise me if one of Tube/SL is mafia and the other is ninja.
Lol. Prob on the money
Sl filter is so shit to read though. Sigh
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On March 05 2015 18:24 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 18:22 sicklucker wrote:
Oats what if onegu and sandro are scum together...? Because thats my theory I've literally never seen anyone fake claim cop with an inno on their teammate. Never. If someone checks onegu, both sandro and onegu die. It's not worth the risk. this.... Totally
To me I'm prob 70% in favour of sick to be lynched.
NEED to think more about the tube post me and kita were opposite reading though.
Bresche. I voted to destroy
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On March 05 2015 18:50 AT.Epiphany wrote:
Also, the first thing I said today is that I'm convinced Sandroba is mafia, it's rather obvious and we should lynch him. I was following up Tubesock's assumption because it's a strange one, given that the rules don't require only one mafia, and that if it actually is only one mafia, the Mafia are the only ones who could know that. Its not obvious to me.
Posts like this are noise. It convinces no one to tip their vote your way; and provides no one with an understanding of your point of view.
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On March 05 2015 18:52 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 18:43 Tubesock wrote:
Is there really that much more risk by "checking" someone in the cell than outside?
If someone had a cop check on someone and ended up in a cell with them it's an absolute no brainer to claim like Sandroba did.
If the check was outside, wouldn't you claim differently? You guys already kinda thought the claim was too casual as it was.
Plus, hell I'd gamble that Onegu who hasn't really been motivated to play wouldn't be further motivated with a green check. Now you just have to fight against 2 people instead of 3. Yes. Because mafia want to create a lynch between 3 people instead of 4 people. Especially when the person they're removing someone from the possibility of being lynched. Like it's really ridiculous to me. People get powers. We know this. I know that either someone RB'd me or that Sepulchre is not town because I shot his ass last night. Like Sandro claiming a greencheck on an easy mislynch when he's mafia is pretty insane. Like really insane. Like I can't believe that Artanis would be a Bastard host and have 2 mafia in the group. I think he just worded it that way because he wanted to be able to include ninjas. Like so far only 2 people have claimed getting powers, Me and Sandro. Kita's response probably means he got a power too. I'm guess he got medic because that makes the most sense overall. I just assumed he would RNG 4 population out of the total. If no Mafia was present, re-roll.
I suppose 2 rolls (1 for mafia, 1 for remaining) is kinda viable but i prefer the above.
Meh. no value to gaming the host though.
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On March 05 2015 19:17 Breshke wrote:
Mocsta could you explain to me why you rpefer SL over Tube. It doesn't have to be that detailed and i know you have given reasons here and there already but I just wanna see it. 1. The claim doesnt make sense to me from mafia motivation. Which "clears" sandroba, and Onegu by default (unless a godfather???) but i dont really have anything to press onegu on if he was GF, which leaves me with SL/Tube.
To be honest, i haven't pushed myself to re-read tube from last night. And sick i avoided last night, and again, going to have to compel myself to read him today. I mean,... both these guys have 7 page filters of jack shit.. the others have barely 2 pages of filter.. liek cell was meant to make this easier ffs.
My thought process yesterday regarding tube was along the lines of:
- was free flowing / casual
- seemed consistent across the filter in motivation
- didnt seem like he was actively trying to withhold information.. which is interesting because it led to me and kitamin reading a "open policy" post completely different (me town, him scum)
For reference:
On March 04 2015 03:48 Tubesock wrote:
Rereading Your Mom, I don't really see anything, but reading Rayn's cases and arguments I'm basically sold he's/she's mafia. Rayn is pretty convincing and I'm strongly townreading him. On March 04 2015 04:00 Tubesock wrote:
I didn't see a reason for him scumming you at first. But later he does, and lays them out. I read Rayn's case and thought that makes sense. I then reread your filter and the first few pages looking at you and skimming the rest, but then I don't see the scum. But I really think Rayn is town. So, I'm conflicted and unsure. It is why I'm not voting you just yet. On March 05 2015 00:40 kitaman27 wrote:
These two posts seem scummy in hindsight. It's tough to follow his thought process in a sequence that makes sense.
From what I can tell:
1) He reads Your Mom's filter, doesn't see anything wrong
2) He reads rayn's case, thinks it makes sense and is sold that he is mafia
3) He rereads Your Mom's filter with rayn's case in mind and still doesn't see anything wrong
As far as I can tell, all three events happened by the time the first post was made since he specifically refers to rereading.
If he doesn't think rayn's case works after rereading, why is he still saying that it makes sense? Can you reread Your Mom's filter with rayn's case in mind and think that BOTH rayn's case make sense and Your Mom's filter is not scummy?
How does he go from "sold he's mafia" to "don't see the scum" in that twelve minute period when questioned further? I also dislike that he mentions multiple times that a large part of the read is based on his view that rayn is town, rather than finding things that make your mom is mafia. On March 05 2015 00:47 Mocsta wrote:
LOL
its this very post that made me town read him
i see lots of town change their view based on ppl they think are towny.
not sure if mafia would be so open about this to be honest.
+as town im often chastised for switching "strong" viws so i know this isnt a hard mafia indicator,
tl;dr hes put his cards exactly as what they are with no additional agenda/distraction afterwards. to me thats townie
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On March 05 2015 19:21 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 19:18 Breshke wrote:On March 05 2015 19:14 Tubesock wrote:On March 05 2015 19:08 geript wrote:On March 05 2015 19:02 Tubesock wrote:On March 05 2015 18:52 geript wrote:On March 05 2015 18:43 Tubesock wrote:
Is there really that much more risk by "checking" someone in the cell than outside?
If someone had a cop check on someone and ended up in a cell with them it's an absolute no brainer to claim like Sandroba did.
If the check was outside, wouldn't you claim differently? You guys already kinda thought the claim was too casual as it was.
Plus, hell I'd gamble that Onegu who hasn't really been motivated to play wouldn't be further motivated with a green check. Now you just have to fight against 2 people instead of 3. Yes. Because mafia want to create a lynch between 3 people instead of 4 people. Especially when the person they're removing someone from the possibility of being lynched. Like it's really ridiculous to me. People get powers. We know this. I know that either someone RB'd me or that Sepulchre is not town because I shot his ass last night. Like Sandro claiming a greencheck on an easy mislynch when he's mafia is pretty insane. Like really insane. Like I can't believe that Artanis would be a Bastard host and have 2 mafia in the group. I think he just worded it that way because he wanted to be able to include ninjas. Like so far only 2 people have claimed getting powers, Me and Sandro. Kita's response probably means he got a power too. I'm guess he got medic because that makes the most sense overall. I don't think it's that insane. I think it's the only sane play he could make. If Sandroba doesn't claim he dies. Even if he were town he was going to die. How could he survive that many dead town scumreads on him? You think no one is going to pick up on that? That you towned him while Rayn and Toad scummed him? Sicklucker constantly survives to endgame. Onegu is well respected and I think probably tougher to lynch in a cell than any of us in here. That leaves me. I had 4 people towning me, but lots of nulls. I literally think it's more possible that he's town fakeclaiming than he is real. Only play? Like there are a billion different plays he could make. Hell, he can red check anyone outside the cell. He can get hard bussed for cred. He can check a partner. He can play like he did in Catastrophe and be really uber towny and not get lynched until like d9. Like there's lots of options for him to take if he's mafia. Like a million different options. Why would he as a good player take the absolute fucking worst line of play physically possible. Like there is 1 play that you do not take as mafia in this situation. And that's the exact play that Sandro made. THE EXACT PLAY. Explain how a vet who's good, really good and spent his last mafia game completely unnoticed until he gave up because all his team got lynched and he was tired of trying to keep playing. Explain how Sandro can as mafia take the absolute worst fucking line of play possible. Like that's the thing that caught me off guard early on. You're right. There are other plays. This seems to me to be the best. I've said multiple times already why. So, show that I'm scum or ninja then. You are saying that Sicklucker might be scum over me? But then earlier you said it would be better to lynch ninja. So, why are you not pushing me? Instead of saying how stupid I am. Lynching the ninja is a fucking horrid play n the situation we are in and i assume no I hope geript has realized that. That has to do with kp reduction though.
But the townie pool has been diluted?
--> mafia have higher chance of being hit by remaining bullets.
I dont think mafia kp is reduced until 2 die.. so we are better off lynching mafia (which expectation that ninja hit ninja or mafia)
Thats my Philosphical poitn of view. please dont debate if you disagree. its not alignment indicative.
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just musing here:
The key to TubeSock alignment boils down to his posiion on "your mom".
Thinking about it in more detail. Mafia are very often caught in the temptation of following a strong town case on the wrong target; vs. trying to not be on the forefront when the green blood is cast.
I still like the honesty though. It didnt read to me like hes trying to make himself look good.
This confusion i feel truly could indicate hes a ninja. Its not like the shuriken shots were any good.
Need to think more. We have 30 odd hours still.
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On March 05 2015 19:29 geript wrote:
Lynching ninja now is only -1 KP. Whereas lynching mafia now is like -.5 KP per night.
So clearly mafia lynch >>> ninja lynch.
Better long term return.
Moving on please.
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Geript.
Should Onegu be cleared by sandroba?
i.e. GF possibility?
was there anything to think onegu could be town prior to the check?
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On March 04 2015 07:07 sicklucker wrote:
But your shooting koshi so thats ok. Well im caught up now.
So im not the best scumhunter so im very happy we found one. I think he is by far the best shot like 80%+ flipping mafia now with his added play. Any other shot wont be anywhere near as high a percentage and your deluding yourself if you think so "rayn".
People who look a little weird to me
Dandred
Breske
toad
kita
Robiks town read on me makes my skin crawl I wouldnt mind you explaining that if you havent already.
Hts has never town read me before either but her reasons were not terrible.
Something rstoulin said that I dont want to repeat makes me think shes town BTW.
This post really sits wrong with me.
Theres an underlying tone of smugness behind it.
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Geript. i cant remember if we played together in that back to school gm game that ended in major drama?
I know rayn was in it and corazon.
Anyways, sicklucker fitler just gives me recalls of holyflare in that game. He was mafia btw.
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On March 05 2015 19:40 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 19:18 geript wrote:
Can't quite find the post. Busy watching. But SL said he thought I would recommend shit tier play like this. If I were mafia, then I'd have a plan setup for pretty much every lynch. Every night phase. SL knows this because he coached with me. Like even last game he made a good argument that I wouldn't be that much of a dumbass jerk as scum (he was mafia but eh). Like that's really fucking odd. I mean if your mafia and your team made a play. (which is a play to get 2 mislynches thats 6 dead townies and seals mafia the game) Then ya I think you would back it. Its a strong allin play.
So basically your entire argument for not being lynched is the dangling golden carrot
Lol
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^^
Pretty much mod confirms Bresche as town 
Like, all good mafia want to bullshit about the button.
But to follow up that button theory with a mod q, is pretty devoted.
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EPT
