I don't know. I really don't. Your play has been consistent with what you said in the beginning (about voting analysis and hunting inconsistences) and your case on Tere is also consistent. But I'm not moving with my read on Tere, so you're either misguided town or scum in my eyes. For now I can't decide so slight scum.

zlefin asked for a list of reads, here it is :

Townish : Trfel, Tere, ElyAs
Null : JJB (need to filter dive), zlefin (want to filter dive too, my earlier scumread on you feels misguided to me.)
Slight scumread : The Shining
Scummy : Silverarte.

I really want to finish filter diving before casting my vote, but if I don't find a better lynch I'm okay with lynching Silver.

It's getting late, I'll have more tomorrow.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 18 2015 23:49 GMT

#902

EBWOP : first paragraph was directed at The Shining.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 16:39 GMT

#1086

On February 19 2015 17:05 Tere wrote:
Morning.

I drank too much last night, have an unhappy stomach and am fuzzy headed, but right now I kinda think I wanna do something which will probably bug the crap out of everybody.

I kinda think I wanna ##vote Trfel.

It's like this. There's a post in my filter where I respond to him and say he's like this weirdly negging boyfriend that's not giving me a lady boner. I just can't shake it, I really can't. It's really bothering me.

I need everyone else to go look at Trfel's filter and see what they think. I might just be falling down the rabbit hole, but if so
I need to step away from the edge.

I need to take the car in for servicing and will be at least 8 or 9 hours. I won't be able to post but I will try and grab a coffee and do a full read and reset.

Wow, that's what I call a scud. I think something's starting to make sense.

I'm changing my way of reading this game. Something felt off but I can narrow it down to 3 people as possible lynch for tonight imo.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 17:37 GMT

#1089

On February 19 2015 11:46 The Shining wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yeah, that post. To be clear when you're catching up, Ely, I'd like to know how being unable to decide between alignments for me becomes an automatic scum instead of null? Please explain my scumread. Something other than "you're scumming my top townread so you're scum" would help.

This is the same player who has also felt almost forgettable, and personally, although he did rescind afterward, he misrepresented one of my posts to make it seem like I hinted at contributing more, then AFKing thread. It was a red flag that I let go because he quickly backed off but I'll be giving a concrete on him once he returns with the results of his JJB and Zlefin filterdives.

Gonna answer this in my next post, along with the way I've been reading Tere.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 17:38 GMT

#1090

EBWOP : Also The Shining, why would you assume I'd be back 2 hours before EOD ? Where did I say that ?

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 18:02 GMT

#1091

Consider this.

There are 3 distinct scenarii that could be happening right now.

1) This is a game with scum being godfather / goon. Trfel is the godfather and is playing like town, but with ambiguous behaviour, as noted by The Shining in the beginning of the game. This is to draw a possible cop to check him and return with a green check.
Also, he was quite ready to jump the gun on Tere even tho she has been breadcrumbing all this time (more on this in the third scenario). He was on the same timing as Tere/me on Hier's lynch.
Day 2 he has been discussing with us, but something feels... off ? He is distancing himself from some easy lynches, maybe he didn't want to start an obvious wagon as scum. At the time he said he didn't want to lynch me, I was still very much a target.

2) Same case, godfather / goon. This time godfather is The Shining, who started to set up Trfel and paint him as godfather. His outburst could be a last ditch effort to appear as frustrated town. This scenario is possible but I'm not sold on it. I thought of this possibility yesterday, which is why I did put him as slight scum. (My first intention was actually to create a "Confusing" category just for you.)

3) Scum setup is roleblocker / goon. Tere is scum and breadcrumbing to confuse us because there is a 25% chance for a particular role to
- not be present
- be compatible with another role.
Which would then be opened for a scumclaim.
I dunno if Tere is willing to take this 25% chance as scum, but for the sake of discussion, let's say yes. There is also the probability that that particular blue role is not willing to claim. (unlikely)
If that's the case, I was sold on that breadcrumbing and this explains my strong read on Tere.

I'm not talking about any scumpartners right now because I believe scum between those 3 is gonna be the most dangerous of scums.

Right now, I'm thinking scenario 1 is the most probable.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 18:10 GMT

#1094

Maybe I can clarify. What's your problem with this ?

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 18:11 GMT

#1095

Dat cross post tho

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 18:15 GMT

#1100

The thought of Tere being godfather didn't even cross my mind :o

The breadcrumb was too obvious for that imo.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 18:18 GMT

#1103

Understandable then, different timezones can be confusing.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 18:50 GMT

#1110

I can give you more, do you want more ?

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 18:53 GMT

#1113

I actually really want you to believe me, The Shining. I might wait for Tere to finish. I'm not as confident as she is, but my guesstimate is 75% that Trfel is the godfather.

Not saying anything on Silverarte yet, this lynch can wait imo.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 19:01 GMT

#1117

Ok I'm gonna commit, I volontarily omitted the punchline to my scenarii post.

I'm Wendy Testaburger, town Doctor !

Which is why I can say with such confidence that the role distribution is either :
1 Godfather, 1 Goon, 1 Doc, 1 Vigilante, 5 Vanilla Town or
1 Roleblocker, 1 Goon, 1 Doc, 6 Vanilla Town

My point is, Tere has been breadcrumbing blue, but most importantly, she has been breadcrumbing Vigi adding to my strong townread.
Proof :
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=44#874

"The two people I would shoot right now are The Shining and Silverarte."
Why is she saying this while nobody has asked her who'd she shoot ?

If this is true and Tere is Vigi, then we have a godfather that played like there could be cops around, while there are none.
If this is false... GG Tere, I got fooled and luck was on your side.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 19:03 GMT

#1120

I saved Trfel N1 because he was my top townread at the time.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 19:24 GMT

#1124

Your point on the day shot is moot, the role is a night vigi as per the OP.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 19:45 GMT

#1134

Placing my vote now because I can't stay in front of my computer. I'll read the thread and I'll be back at least one hour before EoD. My decision is not final, but It's consistent with my train of thought.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 23:51 GMT

#1273

10 minutes before EoD, damn.

Tere, sorry but you claimed VT and not Vig ?

Abort mission, lynch Silver.

ElyAs

France205 Posts

February 19 2015 23:53 GMT

#1276

My scenario stuff breaks down with this single detail, might be scenario 3.
Might be another thing altogether.

ElyAs

France205 Posts