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On January 28 2015 11:56 IAmRobik wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 07:53 Eden1892 wrote:
OK, so back to it. I think GlowingBear is town, because:
(a) His lynch has been way too easy. We could have had him already several times if we'd wanted it, and I think if this weren't IML he would have been lynched by now.
(b) I'm inclined to believe him when he says he had a plan with his self-voting. I don't know what the plan is, and he's gonna have to explain it or get lynched, but pending a reasonable-sounding explanation, I'll believe that he's town.
From there I'm gonna go look at the other players. I'm town and I feel pretty strongly that Half the Sky is as well.
The first player I'm looking at is Onegu, because like I said before, if GlowingBear is town, then Onegu is town as well. I explained this early on p46, feel free to look back and see. Onegu is town.
I have a bad feeling about both Robik and Palmar. Robik has been very loud and animated about lynching GlowingBear, who I believe now to be town, and has done very little - nothing noteworthy enough for me to remember, anyway - outside of talking about killing GlowingBear. And from what I recall his original reasoning wasn't very good. Furthermore, I really didn't like the "playing to wincon" part of his accusation against GB. As I noted before, the only way Robik can accuse GB of not playing to win con as confidently as he did is if he knows GB is town, because mafia self-hammering can absolutely be part of the mafia win con (whereas town self-hammering never is part of town win con). Perhaps I'm getting greedy; I don't really believe in "scumslips." But I kinda think this was one.
Palmar, on the other hand, I feel more confident is mafia. I noted on p47 that Palmar seemed like a slightly more exaggerated version of himself in this game; he seemed to be more aggressively trolly/apathetic to start the day and then more aggressively active/ostensibly-helpful once that stopped. In my (limited) experience with Palmar as town, he tends to ease his way into a game; there's very little pushing to the degree he's done here, and his warmup process is slower and smoother. He doesn't go from 0 to 90 fucks given like he has here; it's more of a steady press on the give-a-fuck accelerator. It feels like he dropped a brick on the accelerator this game, like he was trying to make sure no one could question that he was being active and involved now.
Then there's his vote for GlowingBear... HTS already noted it. It's a policy vote, not a vote for mafia. The problem is that it's a policy vote based on GB martyring that's stayed on GB after GB retracted his self-vote. Policy votes are meant to be done to discourage the behavior triggering the policy vote. For them to be effective, then, there must be an incentive to revoke the behavior - a revoked vote in exchange. Palmar hasn't met GB halfway. If he really cares about the policy being effective, why is he not retracting his vote? On the other hand, if Palmar was just looking for a nice-sounding reason to put a vote down on GB (L-1 no less) and walk away, it makes perfect sense.
Toad and VE are still in my null pile; I don't see myself pursuing either of them as lynches today. liancourt, I still think is probably town because I can put myself in what I project to be his shoes and make sense of it from a townie POV.
##UNVOTE: Onegu
##VOTE: Palmar your premise for GB being town is completely misguided. Do you not understand why?
yes misguided based on faulty logic
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On January 28 2015 12:07 IAmRobik wrote:
Eden and Palmar:
I just read pg 50 and am utterly baffled at how you two are analyzing what GB said. He had absolutely no reason to fear being lynched in that spot as mafia and his explanation is total horseshit. "think about the vote" means nothing. LITERALLY NOTHING. You gave him 11 hours to fabricate a reason for the self-vote when it was obvious he was fucking conceding as mafia. Then he comes back with an explataion that is such utter horseshit that I'm amazed that you actually consider it. Am I wrong about you? Are you Adam Sandler from the Waterboy? "I self voted because I knew that mafia wouldn't hammer me" NO SHIT. HE VOTED TO MAKE IT 3 VOTES ON HIM. TOWN IS A BUNCH OF PUSSIES AND ABSOLUTELY NEVER EVER EVER hammer in that spot. It just doesn't hammer. And if someone votes him (like palmar did), he can just unvote mere minutes later. I'm literally blown away by the stupidity in this thread from people whose play I actually respect.
I don't know if I can even keep reading what happens from pg 51-53 because my hands are shaking that's how mad I am
i'm liking robok more and more
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On January 28 2015 12:36 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 12:27 liancourt wrote:
i'm looking at pg 45 and the vote analysis is just...meh it's like total wifom. To bus or not to bus....to hammer town as mafia...having 2 mafia on town pre emptively...it's a really wide specualtion with so many different opinions. Unless someone actually hammers and flips this thing we're doing on pg 45...seems like a good way to make a discussion go in circles. How can you keep making posts that say absolutely nothing with almost all of your posts? Plus would you have hammered GB?
nope but i'd like reads from him before i decide to whether or not vote on him
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Town - people i agree with
lian
hts
robik
ve
palmar
null
eden - i dont agree with how he thinks gb and onegu can be town. I don't understand it at all.
toad - What exactly has this guy done lately???
scum
gb - I don't like his explanation of his self vote all wifomy, and he hasnt given a progression of his reads.
onegu - Hasn't done anything townie since my last read on him. Has he been giving reads, I don't think so.
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On January 28 2015 13:10 Eden1892 wrote:
ugh please make it stop
this is like watching sandpaper scratch a chalkboard drying
why are you so butt hurt? Did my ignoring you hurt your feelings so bad that you're acting childish like this? I'd like to play a game where we don't post petty insults at each other as much as the next man. I can play like a dick as I've previously shown in titanic d1 and last days of carol and nye. I've reverted to playing my original meta that I used in FFL, FFL2, and hearthstone because I actually enjoyed those games. I'm not being a dick here on purpose like i played in my latest 3 games, but why are you being a dick here? If you keep behaving like this I'll just vote myself or get replaced out. I'd actually like to play a game of wits instead a battle of dick smashing insults. Sure you can go aggressive but insulting and being bm is uncalled for. If you believe my ignoring you was bad mannered and it pissed you off I apologize, if you want to report me for ignoring you and you want to warrant a ban for it I'll take the ban. But if you want to play the game you need to get that prejudice lifted because it is doing you no good.
This is my playstyle. I reread like this and comment on a post i agree on. You can scrutinize criticize saying it's a bad way to play and what not but down right insulting it like this is shallow and childish. I would prefer you refrain from doing these kind of actions in the future.
Good day. I will come back tomorrow before deadline if i can wake up early enough.
3 people I'm willing to lynch today is
onegu > gb > toad
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Before I sleep a few of my thoughts.
1. Onegu not hammering GB when he had 4 votes.
This does not make him confirmed town. The argument that mafia "would have" hammered gb under the assumption that gb is town is invalid because mafia could have just as well not hammered to make themselves townie. Thus the argument is very much wifom. There are several premises for this argument.
GB is town. (assumption) The basis for this argument/hypothesis
Mafia hammers on town. (assumption) The general logic held by the players that mafia would definitely hammer town when given the chance.
Onegu did not hammer on GB. (fact)
ergo
Onegu is town. (assumption) conclusion
The conclusion is a fallacy because it's based on 2 assumptions. 2 dangerous assumptions.
2. GB self voting making him town
This also does not make him confirmed town. Mafia can just as well self vote. Self voting is not a town trait. The argument is wifom since both allignments can do it.
The premise that:
Self voting is town. (assumption/hypo)
GB self voted. (fact/truth)
ergo
GB is town (assumption)
The conclusion here is also a fallacy because the premise is an assumption.
Socrates is a man. (fact)
Men are mortal. (fact)
ergo
Socrates is mortal. (fact)
For something to be confirmed the premises all need to be facts, but every argument has been based on "assumptions" of mafia would do this and that. I will not let town have confirmed townies based on assumption and an argument that is a fallacy. I've seen it in carol and I've seen it on nye. Both times were on vote analysis and they were all absolutely wrong. In carol it was the 2 wagons on d2. Town assumed that the 2 wagons couldn't possibly be 2 mafia which they were. In nye scum changed his vote off of a townie to vote an outlier when the 2 wagons were town & scum. The votes were close iirc it was a 1 vote difference and scum instead of insuring the town ml took off his vote and voted for an outlier...The conclusion that followed was that the other wagon was not mafia because scum would have kept his vote on the townie. Well it was wrong totally. Other wagon was scum. These were all because of town's ASSUMPTIONS. Don't make assumptions. Make reads based on content please. Making assumption is the sure fire way of losing this game.
GB and Onegu are not confirmed town.
Town needs to read GB and Onegu w/o factoring in the self vote incident and how onegu didn't hammer. Examine them by content please. Don't make the mistake again I beg you. I have them as my scum, so please read into them. Also toad hasn't done anything distinctive and seems content doing nothing.
I will like to lynch into these 3 ppl.
Onegu >gb > toad
I will hopefully wake up before deadline unless someone else gets hammered first. Imma sleep now. See you tomorrow early and i can interact live with the thread.
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does this mean i can't sleep?
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ok so who's in the thread I'm ready to "interact"
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because i'm reading robik town
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On January 29 2015 01:04 VisceraEyes wrote:
I just thought the way he arrived at it was scummy. Like, correct me if I'm wrong, but he goes from having no scumreads to being hard tunneled on lian based on one post (the one he calls the scummiest post in the thread) and then goes on to exclusively justify that read. The way he's going on lian just seems contrived considering he doesn't really have thoughts on anyone else. Skimming it looks like the only other read he has that isn't stale (from like his first couple of posts) is that Toad is townish BASED on something lian said.
quoted for truth top town ve
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On January 29 2015 01:30 Toadesstern wrote:so here's the thing. I got back from Uni and am out playing D&D with friends in 10 minutes. Won't be back until 24:00 my time. That being said, if I die before that happens: Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 10:25 Palmar wrote:On January 28 2015 10:24 VisceraEyes wrote:
Ehhhhh...I think I like this the most.
##Unvote
##Vote: liancourt
Palmar feel free to elaborate on your Toad read whenever you get the chance. If I agree with it I might reconsider - I'm historically bad at reading Toad, so meh. He's mafia. You can lynch me if he isn't. He still hasn't really explained his read at all other than "toad waffles on GB" which I do every game no matter of alignment and he knows that. We've played mafia together for... 3 years? Eden's questions about me are too long for me to go through when I have to leave right now but it makes somewhat sense from his PoV if he doesn't know me, even if you could answer every single question in there if you had looked at my previous games (like the fact that I HAAATE talking about townreads and explaining them with a passion to answer one of the questions) and at least he's explaining it. So don't take that as a bad thing. HTS I still feel comfortable in being town VE I'm not as sure about anymore. It could be he's mafia defending me to get towncred after I flip but that could just be me paranoid. If I try to forget that I'd still say more on the townish side Robik is prolly somewhat townish GB is back to null for me. I still feel like mafia would have hammered that if he was town but could be that noone was around. Onegu I felt better about lately. Wouldn't be my #1 priority anymore. Probably behind a lian lynch and Palmar (spite-) lynch (Palmar could totally be Mafia though, like I said he knows me for 3 years. He's way better than what he's showing here) liancourt seems to be the guy to go for imo with that being said I put my vote on lian for now and most likely for today even if I come back and day isn't over yet ##vote liancourtAnd wow, this is actually the first time I ever get lynched as town (in 3 years?) without ragequitting or being modkilled for making a mistake. Good job Palmar
so with this vote i got 4 votes
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On January 29 2015 01:40 Cephiro wrote:
Untouchable Votecount
liancourt (4): Toadesstern, Onegu, Eden1892, VisceraEyes, Eden1892, Half the Sky, Toadesstern
Toadesstern (3): GlowingBear, liancourt, Palmar, Palmar, GlowingBear, Eden1892, GlowingBear
GlowingBear (1): Half the Sky, IAmRobik, VisceraEyes, GlowingBear, Palmar, Toadesstern, VisceraEyes
Onegu (1): Eden1892, liancourt
IAmRobik (0): GlowingBear, Palmar, GlowingBear
Palmar (0): VisceraEyes, GlowingBear, Eden1892, GlowingBear
Eden1892 (0): liancourt
Not voted (0):
With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Deadline is in . If no majority is reached before then, the day will be a no lynch.
this actually doesnt mean anything because it's a 2 town wagon. Mafia could have played however the hell they wanted.
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On January 29 2015 01:50 VisceraEyes wrote:##UnvoteSleep soundly young prince.
although i thank ve for the unvote i don't give him town points for it. Both allignments could have done it and since it was 2 town wagon it literally doens't mean anything.
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On January 30 2015 13:56 Onegu wrote:
Wtf are you talking about liancourt?
that ur scum
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tis what i'm intending to do
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give me a summary of why i'm scum
and a secondary lynch target
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On January 29 2015 02:10 Palmar wrote:
Most scummy thing GB has done this game was to drop the case on me. It was a solid case and I was convinced. Then he just allowed himself to be argued out of it
how does dropping a case on someone mafia? Unless it was a bus I don't see how this a good reason.
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EPT
