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Good morning,
VE, if you are in thread, I'm looking through your filter.
At some point you scumread Palmar and voted him. What do you make of the way he pushed everyone to vote Toad (and ultimately hammered him)?
Through page 4 of your filter, it seems like you had decent to strong reads on Palmar (even if this was somewhat based on your own meta of him) and GlowingBear. I've been scumreading the latter mostly all game.
You didn't like Palmar's trolling, and then throughout the thread he kept yelling "kill Toad" over and over again until we eventually bowed to pressure with less than 40m to EoD. This behaviour continued pretty much all day until the end.
I could make the argument that both Palmar and GB's arguments regarding the vote traps were WIFOM, as (IIRC) GB tried to trap Palmar and Palmar tried to trap Toad. (Now we know that Toad flipped town.)
I'm thinking Palmar looks worse at this point especially now with the flip.
But yesterday I am having trouble even with the continuation of Palmar's behaviour you still scumread Liancourt over him. Can you rank your scumreads, specifying what makes/made one person worse than the other?
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On January 30 2015 14:05 liancourt wrote:
give me a summary of why i'm scum
and a secondary lynch target
Not sure who this is directed at.
My lynch targets are you and GB at this point, though trying to analyse a few of the others atm. For example, Palmar now is looking quite worse for once than he was. The problem is that GB isn't contributing a lot either in promoting a town agenda, and I know he's done much better than this in Carol.
I've voted you because all but one of your posts are not really driving discussion, a lot of evasiveness when Eden was in thread with you, a lot of your points were repeating things others said, and most of your posts were posting just for the sake of posting.
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On January 30 2015 14:12 liancourt wrote:
both of you
Just answered.
Can you tell me why you think Onegu is scum? Just filter dived you and couldn't sort it out. You argued why Onegu couldn't be confirmed town, but that is different than saying why he's scum.
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FYI Lian, I'm here for another 20m as I have to get sorted to go to work. But will work what I can in that timeframe.
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I see Robik has identical scum reads to myself even if ranking them different.
Extended thoughts on Palmar and Lian? I know why you don't like GB, and I didn't either.
Last night we did not have the votes to off either of Lian or GB at 40m to EoD, which is around the time Toad was hammered. I was quite miffed.
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On January 30 2015 09:00 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2015 08:56 VisceraEyes wrote:On January 30 2015 08:49 Onegu wrote:On January 30 2015 08:44 VisceraEyes wrote:
It's not BS because it's the real reason I voted for him. And I DID follow up on it, it's what led me to end up finding YOU suspicious...through filtering him and finding posts by you about him. This is a lie you didn't follow up on it. The next time you mention him following up is when you call me scum for voteing him and my case. Then you make one more post saying you are between me and him. How the hell is that following up? How is it not? You literally just described me following up! LOL If anyone has actual problems with my play then I'll entertain this further. I guess my definition of following up is providing actuall content.
Looked at the difference between VE's reads and yours...
The way I was taught was following up on someone was asking them questions/pushing/providing further content. But that's my interpretation.
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On January 30 2015 14:14 liancourt wrote:
well i'm here now lets drive discussion by why you don't think onegu is a centender for lynch
I see an argument that Onegu's reads are contrived. Not sure if this is based on meta or just how people are reading it.
My overall impression of Onegu's play. Well, he wasn't really playing instantly Day 1, was checking in whilst he was watching the Pro Bowl. Robik even trolled briefly (before pushing GB hard), others had their own form of banter. After his initial list post, which I felt was vague, it's entirely possible he could have just filter dived Lian and caught something then and there.
The "scummiest post" in the thread might have been a stretch but not intentionally as I read through his filter page 2, and he's continually pushing Lian on various points with his exchange with Eden.
On January 29 2015 02:08 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2015 01:45 liancourt wrote:
Before I sleep a few of my thoughts.
1. Onegu not hammering GB when he had 4 votes.
This does not make him confirmed town. The argument that mafia "would have" hammered gb under the assumption that gb is town is invalid because mafia could have just as well not hammered to make themselves townie. Thus the argument is very much wifom. There are several premises for this argument.
GB is town. (assumption) The basis for this argument/hypothesis
Mafia hammers on town. (assumption) The general logic held by the players that mafia would definitely hammer town when given the chance.
Onegu did not hammer on GB. (fact)
ergo
Onegu is town. (assumption) conclusion
The conclusion is a fallacy because it's based on 2 assumptions. 2 dangerous assumptions.
2. GB self voting making him town
This also does not make him confirmed town. Mafia can just as well self vote. Self voting is not a town trait. The argument is wifom since both allignments can do it.
The premise that:
Self voting is town. (assumption/hypo)
GB self voted. (fact/truth)
ergo
GB is town (assumption)
The conclusion here is also a fallacy because the premise is an assumption.
Socrates is a man. (fact)
Men are mortal. (fact)
ergo
Socrates is mortal. (fact)
For something to be confirmed the premises all need to be facts, but every argument has been based on "assumptions" of mafia would do this and that. I will not let town have confirmed townies based on assumption and an argument that is a fallacy. I've seen it in carol and I've seen it on nye. Both times were on vote analysis and they were all absolutely wrong. In carol it was the 2 wagons on d2. Town assumed that the 2 wagons couldn't possibly be 2 mafia which they were. In nye scum changed his vote off of a townie to vote an outlier when the 2 wagons were town & scum. The votes were close iirc it was a 1 vote difference and scum instead of insuring the town ml took off his vote and voted for an outlier...The conclusion that followed was that the other wagon was not mafia because scum would have kept his vote on the townie. Well it was wrong totally. Other wagon was scum. These were all because of town's ASSUMPTIONS. Don't make assumptions. Make reads based on content please. Making assumption is the sure fire way of losing this game.
GB and Onegu are not confirmed town.
Town needs to read GB and Onegu w/o factoring in the self vote incident and how onegu didn't hammer. Examine them by content please. Don't make the mistake again I beg you. I have them as my scum, so please read into them. Also toad hasn't done anything distinctive and seems content doing nothing.
I will like to lynch into these 3 ppl.
Onegu >gb > toad
I will hopefully wake up before deadline unless someone else gets hammered first. Imma sleep now. See you tomorrow early and i can interact live with the thread.
Why the hell can't you make posts like this once a day. But the fact is you still haven't given a reason why I am scum. You give great reasons why I shouldn't be confirmed town. But I really still don't understand why you are voting me. It can't really be a sheep anymore as its only you on me. So I want your read why I am Scum, not why I am not confirmed town.
This above post I did not agree with Onegu, but I can't see a reason to actually scumread him for it. I already pointed out the flaws earlier in Liancourt posting this, as it's been repetition from what both Eden and VE did earlier in the day.
To be quite honest, Lian, GB and Palmar all look worse really than Onegu. Even if Onegu may not appear to be the most "wow" poster in this group.
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On January 30 2015 14:20 liancourt wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2015 14:14 Half the Sky wrote:On January 30 2015 14:12 liancourt wrote:
both of you Just answered. Can you tell me why you think Onegu is scum? Just filter dived you and couldn't sort it out. You argued why Onegu couldn't be confirmed town, but that is different than saying why he's scum. Simple POE town lian ve hts robi null palmar scum gb onegu
People are questioning (aside from you) Palmar and VE. Why do you think VE is town (in your own words) and how is Palmar still null after what he did at EoD last night?
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I'm out as well, getting sorted for work.
Good night and good day.
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It is possible. It's possible most are ignoring them whilst the rest turn against each other, but I'd say unlikely because he wouldn't be going as hard on GB since a lot of us are scumreading GB too. Definitely enough for today to hammer GB.
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The problem is Lian has GB as #2 and seeing my top scumread vote GB...
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I'm definitely not voting WITH GB...
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You and Lian are my two top scumreads.
Clearly you aren't reading the thread.
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On January 31 2015 01:26 GlowingBear wrote:
Robik makes a wrong case on me, posts it, but never tries to get people voting me, specially when Palmar is repeatedly saying to lunch toad instead.
IF YOU HAVE THAT STRONG SCUMREAD ON ME YOU HAD TO FIGHT PALMAR, WHY THE FUCK DIDN'T YOU DIRECTLY ADDRESSED PALMAR AND ASK HIM TO LYNCH ME?
GAWD I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS
Even with Palmar, if I recall correctly WE DIDN'T HAVE THE VOTES.
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I was counting max 4 to be able to get you or Lian lynched.
My vote was already on Liancourt at that time.
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I am still not understanding the argument against Onegu.
VE contests he's too contrived. To me that's the equivalent of a tone read after diving twice now, I'm seeing the followups I should be seeing, but VE also defines "followups" differently. Not sure if that's a cover for him not doing followups.
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Here for a little before I'm out with the other half. Let's see what I can do...
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On January 30 2015 14:56 liancourt wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2015 14:34 Half the Sky wrote:
People are questioning (aside from you) Palmar and VE. Why do you think VE is town (in your own words) and how is Palmar still null after what he did at EoD last night?
i agree with most of the things ve has said iirc the lastg 3 votes ontoad was eden u and onegu. Palmar was pushing toad all day. Town can be wrong, mafia can intentionally tunnel on town. I need to re evaluate him today. I'm not reading him town nor is he scummy. Fact is 3 ppl followed him with his vote and 1 of them was town. I'll wait until palmar posts before i analyze him.
No, just no. You simply agreeing with VE does not make him town, nor does it make you town. Robik and I largely agree on GB, but we are/have been taking different angles. Am I concluding Robik is town just because we agree on GB? Not definitively but I feel he's doing the other things, has other reads, etc that I think makes him town.
You aren't talking about what is going behind those thoughts.
Also your point on the votes is completely invalid. Are you considering under what conditions the votes were made? Are you considering that VE didn't even vote?
Fair enough on Palmar though.
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On January 31 2015 01:33 GlowingBear wrote:
WHAT DO YOU DO?
KEEP SILENT.
YOU DON'T SAY "HEY LOOK AT MY CASE AND GIVE THOUGHTS"
ARGH
Wrong. He did that and some. He wasn't as active as say, Eden and myself trying to figure the game, out but he definitely did this.
Resistance to a lynch (as I learnt in Void) is not particularly a townie thing...
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EPT
