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On January 20 2015 14:45 rsoultin wrote:
Hrum...so, all things remaining equal and assuming the dead townie N2 is universally townread already...likely...
Where are you standing? I know this is preemptive, but if I were scum and Trfel had a red check, I wouldn't fight this lynch. Personally. So I'm not expecting much new knowledge to come from Day 2.
Your paragraph was pretty convoluted and I'm not sure I fully understand it.
Is this for me? Convoluted means clouded or confusing right? What is hard to understand.
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On January 20 2015 14:49 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2015 14:44 jarjarbinks wrote:On January 20 2015 14:37 Breshke wrote:
@ Jarjar who is your top 3 lynches other than trefel. I'll rank them. 1. LM- The lurky mafia of the group. Was scumming me after I felt mafia knew I was blue. A lot of people had talked about them. I voted for LM before forced to leave and I'll stick to it for now. The Trfel vote on LM worries me, but I could see him doing that to throw people like me off. 2. Breshke- GB was suspicious of you, I'm suspicious of you. You were on me after I felt mafia knew I was tracker. 3. Geript- I could see Geript pulling off killing Waffle as mafia and thinking he could get away with it. Plus GB didn't like him. 4. DP- This is more based on what other people have said about DP being the #3 if LM and Trfel are Scum. Who did you track? I know you got RBd, but who were you going to track? ^That mirrors my PoE, too, though I don't see why geript would move a train off a town onto another town. Can you explain why you think he could still be scum? To me that seems too risky unless he's super confident he'll get townread for it even though he was saying he didn't like WW as the lynch earlier.
Ugh sorry sis. Laptop issues xD keyboard need to come in soon xD
I tracked Breske, first thought about LM but seeing how the thread was going I figured Breshke would be a better choice. I was looking for the suspicious quiet types.
Only reasons I could see why Geript would make the vote go to Waffle:
1. Waffle was getting towned by most despite limited posts. Could be a hard sell to lynch (although I guess not due to geripts influence)
2. Bragging rights. Got us all to vote him based on "not the best" logic.
3. He started the GB train. GB was on to him. Could look bad. I feel like this isn't the vet play though.
4. Shifts the lynch on to me without voting for me. Causes me to either die or claim blue. If he was mafia he would probably know I was blue by that point. I'd have to admit I didn't do the best job of hiding it. If I was cop, they might have tried to kill me N1 instead of someone else. They would know for sure if I claimed.
5. He looks a little bad, but do you notice how many people think he's still town? He probably wouldn't see it as that much of a risk.
Obviously these are all hypotheticals. I don't know if he is town or mafia. But its not like he had 0 reasons to switch right?
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Just got home. Eatin that BK. You still there?
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On January 20 2015 16:01 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2015 15:27 jarjarbinks wrote:On January 20 2015 14:49 rsoultin wrote:On January 20 2015 14:44 jarjarbinks wrote:On January 20 2015 14:37 Breshke wrote:
@ Jarjar who is your top 3 lynches other than trefel. I'll rank them. 1. LM- The lurky mafia of the group. Was scumming me after I felt mafia knew I was blue. A lot of people had talked about them. I voted for LM before forced to leave and I'll stick to it for now. The Trfel vote on LM worries me, but I could see him doing that to throw people like me off. 2. Breshke- GB was suspicious of you, I'm suspicious of you. You were on me after I felt mafia knew I was tracker. 3. Geript- I could see Geript pulling off killing Waffle as mafia and thinking he could get away with it. Plus GB didn't like him. 4. DP- This is more based on what other people have said about DP being the #3 if LM and Trfel are Scum. Who did you track? I know you got RBd, but who were you going to track? ^That mirrors my PoE, too, though I don't see why geript would move a train off a town onto another town. Can you explain why you think he could still be scum? To me that seems too risky unless he's super confident he'll get townread for it even though he was saying he didn't like WW as the lynch earlier. Ugh sorry sis. Laptop issues xD keyboard need to come in soon xD I tracked Breske, first thought about LM but seeing how the thread was going I figured Breshke would be a better choice. I was looking for the suspicious quiet types. Only reasons I could see why Geript would make the vote go to Waffle: 1. Waffle was getting towned by most despite limited posts. Could be a hard sell to lynch (although I guess not due to geripts influence) 2. Bragging rights. Got us all to vote him based on "not the best" logic. 3. He started the GB train. GB was on to him. Could look bad. I feel like this isn't the vet play though. 4. Shifts the lynch on to me without voting for me. Causes me to either die or claim blue. If he was mafia he would probably know I was blue by that point. I'd have to admit I didn't do the best job of hiding it. If I was cop, they might have tried to kill me N1 instead of someone else. They would know for sure if I claimed.5. He looks a little bad, but do you notice how many people think he's still town? He probably wouldn't see it as that much of a risk. Obviously these are all hypotheticals. I don't know if he is town or mafia. But its not like he had 0 reasons to switch right? ...This one. The others don't make sense...but 4 is worth investigating. I think they could RB you regardless, cop or tracker, but this one... I have to remember this when I'm going back through the votes. GB, right, was the train? You were the other. He tried to get people off of GB onto WW. It's untraceable to him if he doesn't get enough people to actually lynch WW and therefore lynches you by default, and he probably wouldn't have gotten enough if you didn't claim. And he didn't want to lynch WW before, on top of that. It verifies you as blue if they're suspecting that you are, or gets you lynched. Damn, bro. There is a possible scum motive for that wagon switch after all. ...okay. Gonna have to think on this one ><. The town to town switch was my main reason for townreading him with some of the other things he's done. Tomorrow I'll look at it more in depth to see if it actually jives with the EoD voting.
I have to go back and check as well. I remember thinking, REALLY?! when the Waffle switch happened but I don't remember if it was geripts vote that actually got me in the bind.
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On January 21 2015 07:30 LightningStrike wrote:
I still here JarJar who you think is the entire scum team and why?
Honestly I need to read again. I feel like my reads are stale. My thoughts really haven't progressed since last night.
I like everyone else believe in your Trfel read. I voted LM at beginning of D1 but it seems like everyone likes LM as scum and LM isn't here to defend himself. Makes me worry. Still I'll have him as #2 now and go through the stuff again to see if I still like it.
#3 Could be Geript, I need to read over some stuff on him. Breshke could be it, but having two lurkers and Trfel on a mafia team seems like not the smartest. I figured there'd be somebody more vocal, but RNG picks the people I guess. Those would be my top two choices for #3.
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Sorry LS I think I will murder my laptop soon. It specifically hates this game.
Ya I guess the game doesn't pick an optimal scum team. Did you mean in your game where you were mafia?
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@Rsoultin
I looked at the votes. Definitely doesn't conclusively show that Geript switched to screw me.
Right before he switched I had 4 and GB had 6. His switch made it GB-5 me-4. LS switched to me about 10 seconds later. THEN others followed. I mean it is possible that he did switch to screw me, but he would have had to figure people would get off the GB train if he switched and/or saw that the GB train was losing traction.
Damdred was hard bussing me. It is possible he saw it coming, but he was definitely not the only factor in putting me on the chopblock.
And thanks again for defending me at EOD! You get some more bro brownie points lolz
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Although it is worth noting that LM recently had put my vote tally to four right before the Geript switch. Not specifically RIGHT before, but a few minutes before.
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On January 21 2015 09:08 geript wrote:
Like JJB literally just was 100% wrong. Damdred never really heavily pushed JJB. He procrastinates on reading him for like half the day then lackadaisically tells people to vote for him. Like there's never even a good reason for Damdred to even say the shit he is other than his flipfloppery on GB (town-mafia-town).
Plus JJB is literally claiming mafia with Damdred. Idk. I'll think about this more but I can't fathom a reason JJB says anything like that as town.
In the least, we lynch Trfel and have more time to think about it.
##vote Trfel
my bad I thought bussing was like heavily pushing xD
He definitely was telling everyone to vote me though.
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Trf why couldn't you be the RB? ITS ALL YOUR FAULT
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Hmm good call.
Should we both pick the same person tonight? One of us will probably be blocked but one of us will definitely go through.
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On January 22 2015 07:52 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 07:48 jarjarbinks wrote:
Trf why couldn't you be the RB? ITS ALL YOUR FAULT
If he was the Roleblocker than the scum would of made a bunch of noise over his lynch.
Actually I feel like if Trf was RB and cop finds him there wouldn't have been any mafia defending him. It would just convict them too right?
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Your right. Ya I guess there is no reason not to kill one and block the other.
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@GB if your still reading or whatever this is the site I found before this game (at work on lunchbreak) started on no lynching. Funny enough I couldn't find this on google at home when you asked about it. I guess there's a lot of mafia sites.
http://englishmafiaclub.com/strategy-for-red-day1.html
So I guess on this site red players are good and black players are bad in comparison to red players being bad here and green/blue being good.
I think my analysis might be hogwash because I couldn't factor how prior votes would affect peoples voting accuracy later on. For example, for a VT on day one in a game like this, there would be a 1/12 chance they vote right. On day 2 with two kills, then it would be 1/10 + cop/tracker influence. I didn't have a general "will have a better vote based on information read" factor and I feel like it is vital. Especially in this game. We have 62 pages of information right now, and I would hope at least some of it would help the VT make more accurate votes.
So in conclusion (if you care/reading still) I think all my work I did on the no lynch thing was dumb and you guys were right. I was just mad D1 I had to claim with a Waffle death and N1 you died.
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oops it wasn't 1/12 it was 3/12 and it wasn't 1/10 it was a little less than 3/10
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Blocked again.
What are the chances that mafia busses LM? I would think they would think they would be pretty high lol
DP have your reads changed at all? Can you pull a LeBron and find our 3rd mafia member for us?
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hmm I can't write. I would think THAT they would be pretty high.
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On January 17 2015 10:45 Trfel wrote:
There is no voting thread XD someone is really prepared for this game haha
LightningStrike, you played in Carol of the Bells. So did LoneMeow. Any thoughts on him?
Hmm this is the first time Trfel questioned LM. Very early in the game. IF LM is mafia, which I think he is, then Trfel definitely PLANNED to bus LM all along. If you follow his filter, you notice that he loved to townread me too.
I think they were both smart strategies. He busses LM who obviously doesn't have a lot of time to play this game this round and unfortunately drew mafia, and he defends me who obviously was going to get a lot of suspicion in the game (he knew that from our last game). I think they were both smart plays, but he got cop read and he probably could have executed a little better.
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On January 17 2015 12:00 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2015 11:57 rsoultin wrote:On January 17 2015 11:50 Trfel wrote:
Ok, I will respond to jarjar's request for a no lynch. No, we will definitely lynch.
No lynch on Day 1 is bad because it usually leaves you in an almost equally uninformed position on Day 2. Eventually you have to make that first lynch. Yes, town is often lynched on Day 1, but you can still lynch scum on Day 1 with effective play (and a bit of luck).
I will keep my vote on geript until I feel that it is better for me to move it. It is really silly to ask me for rules for what I will do with my vote, since it's my own judgement and there is absolutely no reason for me to try and set rules for every possible scenario. Mhm. The question was not what your rules are. The question was do you intend to scumhunt at all? Why is it so difficult for you to answer a simple question? Will you or will you not adhere to policy voting over scumread voting? Since you can't possibly be scumreading geript off of no posting (and have admitted to such) I feel that it's a valid question. I don't understand where you are coming from. Of course I intend to scumhunt. Why do you ask a question which has only one answer?
I remember him getting a lot of towncred for this statement. I still didn't get why. I knew GB was one of the guys who towncredded him. Was the other geript? I don't see how town and mafia could respond differently to this.
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This is about Trfel voting Geript at the beginning.
Do you guys think that Trfel would try to bus BOTH of his mafia bro's? I would definitely hope not. Especially right out of the gate. I could see him bussing one and maybe joining a lynchtrain on the other, but trying to kill off both your buddies seems messed up to me.
If geript turns mafia, PLEASE don't let me be mafia with Trfel lol
But anyways, what are your thoughts on this rsoultin? Think that possibly gives any towncred to geript if LM does turn scum? Definitely an if statement lol
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EPT
